Introduction To Econometrics Third Edition James H Stock -PDF Free Download

Introduction to Econometrics Third Edition James H Stock
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1 2 3 2, Brief Overview of the Course, Economics suggests important relationships often with policy. implications but virtually never suggests quantitative. magnitudes of causal effects , What is the quantitative effect of reducing class size on. student achievement , How does another year of education change earnings . What is the price elasticity of cigarettes , What is the effect on output growth of a 1 percentage. point increase in interest rates by the Fed , What is the effect on housing prices of environmental.
improvements , 1 2 3 3, This course is about using data to measure causal effects . Ideally we would like an experiment, o What would be an experiment to estimate the effect of. class size on standardized test scores , But almost always we only have observational. nonexperimental data , o returns to education, o cigarette prices. o monetary policy, Most of the course deals with difficulties arising from using.
observational to estimate causal effects, o confounding effects omitted factors . o simultaneous causality, o correlation does not imply causation . 1 2 3 4, In this course you will , Learn methods for estimating causal effects using. observational data, Learn some tools that can be used for other purposes for. example forecasting using time series data , Focus on applications theory is used only as needed to.
understand the whys of the methods , Learn to evaluate the regression analysis of others this. means you will be able to read understand empirical. economics papers in other econ courses , Get some hands on experience with regression analysis in. your problem sets , 1 2 3 5, Review of Probability and Statistics. SW Chapters 2 3 , Empirical problem Class size and educational output. Policy question What is the effect on test scores or some. other outcome measure of reducing class size by one. student per class by 8 students class , We must use data to find out is there any way to answer.
this without data , 1 2 3 6, The California Test Score Data Set. All K 6 and K 8 California school districts n 420 . Variables , 5PthP grade test scores Stanford 9 achievement test . combined math and reading district average, Student teacher ratio STR no of students in the. district divided by no full time equivalent teachers. 1 2 3 7, Initial look at the data , You should already know how to interpret this table . This table doesn t tell us anything about the relationship. between test scores and the STR , 1 2 3 8, Do districts with smaller classes have higher test scores .
Scatterplot of test score v student teacher ratio,What does this figure show . 1 2 3 9, We need to get some numerical evidence on whether districts. with low STRs have higher test scores but how , 1 Compare average test scores in districts with low STRs. to those with high STRs estimation , 2 Test the null hypothesis that the mean test scores in. the two types of districts are the same against the. alternative hypothesis that they differ hypothesis. testing , 3 Estimate an interval for the difference in the mean test.
scores high v low STR districts confidence, interval . 1 2 3 10, Initial data analysis Compare districts with small STR . 20 and large STR 20 class sizes , Class Average score Standard n. Size Y deviation sBY B, Small 657 4 19 4 238, Large 650 0 17 9 182. 1 Estimation of difference between group means,2 Test the hypothesis that 0.
3 Construct a confidence interval for , 1 2 3 11, 1 Estimation. nlarge, 1 nsmall, 1, Ysmall Ylarge , nsmall, Y, i 1. i , nlarge, Y, i 1, i, 657 4 650 0, 7 4,Is this a large difference in a real world sense . Standard deviation across districts 19 1, Difference between 60th P P and 75th. P P percentiles of test score, distribution is 667 6 659 4 8 2.
This is a big enough difference to be important for school. reform discussions for parents or for a school, committee . 1 2 3 12, 2 Hypothesis testing,Difference in means test compute the t statistic . Ys Yl Ys Yl, t remember this , ss2, sl2 SE Ys Yl . ns nl,where SE Ys Yl is the standard error of Ys Yl the. subscripts s and l refer to small and large STR districts . 1 ns,and ss2 , ns 1 i 1, Yi Ys 2, etc , 1 2 3 13, Compute the difference of means t statistic .
Size Y sBYB n, small 657 4 19 4 238, large 650 0 17 9 182. Ys Yl 657 4 650 0 7 4, t 4 05, ss2, sl2 19 42, 17 92 1 83. ns nl 238 182, t 1 96 so reject at the 5 significance level the null. hypothesis that the two means are the same , 1 2 3 14. 3 Confidence interval, A 95 confidence interval for the difference between the.
means is , Ys Yl 1 96 SE Ys Yl , 7 4 1 96 1 83 3 8 11 0 . Two equivalent statements , 1 The 95 confidence interval for doesn t include 0 . 2 The hypothesis that 0 is rejected at the 5 level .


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