Hurricane Patricia - National Hurricane Center
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTERTROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTHURRICANE PATRICIA(EP202015)20 – 24 October 2015Todd B. Kimberlain, Eric S. Blake, and John P. CangialosiNational Hurricane Center4 February 20161METOP-B ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE AT 0323 UTC 23 OCTOBER. IMAGE COURTESY CIRA.Patricia was a late-season major hurricane that intensified at a rate rarely observedin a tropical cyclone. It became a category 5 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson HurricaneWind Scale) over anomalously warm waters to the south of Mexico, and the strongesthurricane on record in the eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic basins. The hurricaneturned north-northeastward and weakened substantially before making landfall along asparsely populated part of the coast of southwestern Mexico as a category 4 hurricane.Patricia produced a narrow swath of severe damage and two direct deaths.1 Original report date 1 February 2016. Updated 4 February to correct storm chaser report, peak 24-h pressurefall, Hurricane Linda’s peak intensity in Fig. 6, and the date of Hurricane Lane.
Hurricane Patricia2Hurricane Patricia20 – 24 OCTOBER 2015SYNOPTIC HISTORYPatricia’s development into a tropical cyclone was slow and complicated, involving theinteraction of multiple weather systems. A tropical disturbance crossed the southern part ofCentral America on 11 October, and entered the eastern Pacific the following day several hundrednautical miles south of El Salvador. While this system moved little, a tropical wave was movingwestward over the Caribbean Sea, and reached Central America on 15 October. The wavemoved into the eastern Pacific the next day and merged with the first disturbance while a Gulf ofTehuantepec gap wind event was occurring. The gap wind event provided an injection of cyclonicvorticity to the merged disturbance (Levine 2012, Holbach and Bourassa 2014), and an elongatedarea of low pressure formed later that day, extending from the Yucatan Peninsula southward forseveral hundred miles into the eastern Pacific. Deep convection associated with the largecyclonic gyre increased substantially on 17 October, possibly due to more favorable large-scaleconditions associated with the passage of the rising branch of a strong Madden-Julian Oscillationmoving eastward across the eastern Pacific.The system’s cloud pattern was gradually becoming better organized while it moved slowlynorthwestward to a position a few hundred nautical miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec on 18October, where it developed a smaller and better defined circulation. However, a second gapwind event, stronger than the first, began later that day. Although this gap wind event initially hada disruptive effect on the formative tropical cyclone, the low reformed to the northeast later on 19October on the cyclonic shear side of the strengthening gap wind event. Deep convectionassociated with the low increased and became well organized by early on 20 October. An ASCATpass around 0400 UTC 20 October suggested that a small, well-defined circulation had developedunderneath the convection within a larger cyclonic envelope elongated from north to south, and itis estimated that a tropical depression finally formed around 0600 UTC that day centered about180 n mi south-southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico. The “best track” chart of the tropical cyclone’spath is given in Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively.The best track positions and intensities are listed in Table 12.The depression was located to the south of a mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf ofMexico, extending west-southwestward into the eastern Pacific. The steering provided by thisfeature and the gap wind event caused the depression to drift west-southwestward while thecyclone gradually strengthened, and the system became a tropical storm 18 h after genesis. Byearly on 21 October Patricia encountered relatively drier and more stable lower- to middletropospheric air, and sea surface temperatures that were at least 2º C lower than the surrounding2A digital record of the complete best track, including wind radii, can be found on line atftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf. Data for the current year’s storms are located in the btk directory, while previousyears’ data are located in the archive directory.
Hurricane Patricia3region, the result of strong gap winds over a large area extending well to the south of the Isthmusof Tehuantepec. The less favorable thermodynamic environment slowed development, with deepconvection temporarily diminishing and cloud-top temperatures warming late on 20 October andearly on 21 October. Once Patricia moved outside of the affected region later that morning,however, a rapid increase in deep convection occurred over the low-level center, and a smallcentral dense overcast (CDO) began to form while the storm moved at a faster forward speedtoward the west and then the west-northwest. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reached Patriciathat afternoon and discovered it to already be a 50-kt tropical storm, consistent with the rapidincrease in organization of the cloud pattern seen in satellite imagery.A period of rapidintensification had already begun in an environment of very light vertical wind shear, highatmospheric moisture and greater instability over anomalously warm waters, untapped sinceHurricane Carlos traversed the region in June. Patricia strengthened into a hurricane shortly after0000 UTC 22 October while centered about 200 n mi south of Acapulco, Mexico.Over the next 24 h, Patricia’s satellite presentation changed dramatically, as a large bandwith cloud-top temperatures of -80º to -90º C coiling cyclonically inward over the center evolvedinto an almost perfectly symmetric CDO around a 10 n mi wide eye. A NOAA plane arrived at theend of this 24-h period around 1800 UTC 22 October, and indicated that Patricia had alreadyreached major hurricane strength, with estimated surface winds of 115 kt and a minimum pressureof 957 mb. The rapid intensification phase continued into the night while Patricia turnednorthwestward and its forward speed decreased, and satellite imagery indicated that a solid ringof cloud-top temperatures colder than -90º C surrounding a 7 n mi wide eye had formed by 0300UTC 23 October (cover figure). By the time an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reached thecyclone around 0600 UTC, Patricia had intensified into an extremely powerful hurricane withmaximum sustained winds of 180 kt and a minimum central pressure of around 879 mb. Thesatellite presentation continued to increase in organization over the next several hours after theplane left, and Patricia is estimated to have reached a peak intensity of 185 kt around 1200 UTCthat day while centered about 130 n mi southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.Patricia reached the western periphery of the mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf ofMexico around this time and turned north-northwestward and then northward while essentiallymaintaining its intensity. By the time the last reconnaissance mission reached Patricia around1800 UTC 23 October, the hurricane had turned north-northeastward with some increase inforward speed, in response to a shortwave trough moving across the Baja California peninsulaand northwestern Mexico. Although the aircraft still found surface winds of near 180 kt on its firstpass through the storm in the southeastern quadrant, a 2023 UTC Global Precipitation Mission(GPM) overpass indicated a distinct double eyewall structure (Fig. 4), suggestive of an imminentweakening trend. Upper-air analyses also indicated that southwesterly vertical wind shear wasgradually increasing over the cyclone, and a final pass by the plane around 2030 UTC indicatedthat a rapid filling of the cyclone had begun; the peak flight-level winds had decreased nearly 50kt in the same quadrant traversed earlier and the central pressure had risen 24 mb in the 3 hsince the first fix.Patricia continued to rapidly weaken during the next couple of hours before landfall, andis estimated to have reached the southwestern coast of Mexico in the state of Jalisco, near PlayaCuixmala, around 2300 UTC 23 October with an intensity of 130 kt and a minimum pressure ofaround 932 mb. The hurricane continued to weaken rapidly during the next several hours while
Hurricane Patricia4it moved over the high terrain of the Sierra Madre mountains, and Patricia fell below hurricanestrength before passing well to the west of Guadalajara around 0300 UTC 24 October. When themid-level center raced northeastward and separated from the low-level center overnight, Patriciaweakened to a tropical depression. The cyclone dissipated later that morning over central Mexico.METEOROLOGICAL STATISTICSObservations in Patricia (Figs. 2 and 3) include subjective satellite-based Dvoraktechnique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) and theSatellite Analysis Branch (SAB), and objective Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) estimates fromthe Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies/University of Wisconsin-Madison.Observations also include flight-level, stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR), anddropwindsonde observations from three flights of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron ofthe U. S. Air Force Reserve Command and one NOAA Aircraft Operations Center WP-3D aircraft.A NASA WB-57 aircraft flying at high altitude provided useful dropsonde data on Patricia’sintensity on 21 October. Data and imagery from NOAA polar-orbiting satellites including theAdvanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), the NASA Global Precipitation Mission (GPM), theEuropean Space Agency’s Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), and Defense MeteorologicalSatellite Program (DMSP) satellites, among others, were also useful in constructing the best trackof Patricia.There were no reliable ship reports of winds of tropical storm force associated withPatricia. Selected surface observations from land stations are given in Table 2.The highest flight-level wind obtained during Patricia, 192 kt, was measured by an AirForce Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft at 0647 UTC 23 October in the northeastern eyewall,and a wind of 191 kt was measured on a NOAA mission at 1734 UTC that day. The maximumSFMR-observed surface wind was 182 kt at 0600 UTC, and a value of 180 kt was measured onthe later flight at 1732 UTC (Fig. 5). SFMR data from both flights were reprocessed, andconfirmed to be reliable after an evaluation by NOAA Hurricane Research Division staff (Klotz2015, personal communication). The reprocessing yielded the 180 kt peak value on the NOAAflight, up from 166 kt reported operationally. SFMR winds of comparable values have only oncebeen previously measured in a tropical cyclone (Supertyphoon Megi in 2010). Patricia’s peakintensity is estimated to be slightly higher, at 185 kt, since the satellite signature of the stormcontinued to increase in organization (warmest eye and coldest surrounding cloud-toptemperatures) between the two aircraft flights until around 1200 UTC. The 185-kt analyzed peakintensity makes Patricia the strongest hurricane on record in the eastern North Pacific, surpassingHurricane Linda in 1997 (Fig. 6). Patricia is also the strongest hurricane on record in either theeastern North Pacific or North Atlantic basins. It should be noted, however, that records for themost intense eastern North Pacific hurricanes are particularly uncertain prior to 1988; records forthe most extreme North Atlantic hurricanes are considered reliable beginning in the early 1970sat the start of routine monitoring of the basin using satellite and aircraft data.Patricia’s explosive deepening from 22 October to 23 October was remarkable. Over the24-h period ending at 0600 UTC 23 October, the pressure is estimated to have fallen 95 mb and
Hurricane Patricia5the wind to have increased from 75 kt to 180 kt. Over a 2-day period ending at the same time,the winds are estimated to have increased by nearly 150 kt. The 1-day intensification of 105 ktexceeds a 95-kt increase for Hurricane Wilma in 2005 over the western Caribbean Sea. Thisintensification occurred while Patricia was moving in a very light shear and moist environmentwhile over an expansive region of anomalously warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 30.5ºCto 31º C, which are the highest SSTs ever observed over this region to the south of Mexico inmid-October (Fig. 7).A pressure of 885 mb was measured by dropsonde at 0646 UTC with splash winds of 57kt, supporting an estimated minimum pressure of 879 mb. The central pressure was still falling onthe last pass through the eye at 0646 UTC (by 7 mb between the last two fixes that were 45 minapart), and it is possible in the hours that followed that Patricia’s pressure fell lower than the globalrecord value of 870 mb observed in Supertyphoon Tip in 1979. The lowest central pressuremeasured by a dropsonde during Patricia was 883 mb at 1733 UTC 23 October. Given surfacewinds from the dropsonde of 45 kt, Patricia’s minimum pressure at that time is also estimated tobe 879 mb. In between these two times, a minimum pressure of 872 mb has been assigned to1200 UTC 23 October, the time of the estimated peak winds. The value of 872 mb wasdetermined from the Knaff-Zehr-Courtney (KZC) pressure-wind relationship (Courtney and Knaff,2009), which very accurately reproduced the observed reconnaissance pressure-wind data near0600 and 1800 UTC that day (Fig. 3)3. The 872 mb value represents the lowest pressure onrecord in the western Hemisphere and the second lowest globally. Also of note is the maximum700-mb temperature of 32.2º C measured by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft at 1733 UTC,several hours after the time of estimated peak intensity; this is the warmest 700-mb eyetemperature ever measured in a tropical cyclone. A pressure gradient of up to 24 mb/n mi wascomputed from aircraft data on the 0600 UTC mission4; this is thought to be one of the steepestpressure gradients recorded in a tropical cyclone.The remarkably rapid intensification rate was followed by a period of weakening, at aneven more rapid rate, beginning around 1800 UTC 23 October. After a pressure of 879 mb wasinferred from the dropsonde data at 1733 UTC, the plane made another pass through the center(after some technical difficulties) and launched a dropsonde at 2044 UTC that measured apressure of 910 mb with 68 kt surface winds; these data support a minimum pressure of around903 mb at that time, corresponding to a filing rate of about 8 mb/h. There was also a dramaticreduction in the winds measured by the reconnaissance aircraft in Patricia’s southeasternquadrant, following the 191-kt flight-level and 180-kt SFMR winds observed near 1733 UTC; thereturn trip to this quadrant at 2033 UTC found a peak flight-level wind of only 146 kt and a peakSFMR wind of 131 kt.Patricia made landfall around 2300 UTC along the coast of the Mexican state of Jalisconear Playa Cuixmala, about 45 n mi west-northwest of Manzanillo. Operationally, Patricia wasassessed to have been of category 5 intensity with a landfall pressure of 920 mb, but a postanalysis of additional data obtained later suggests that the hurricane had weakened more rapidly3 The following inputs were used in the KCZ pressure-wind computation: maximum sustained winds (185kt), latitude (17.3N), mean radius of tropical-storm-force winds averaged over the four quadrants of thecyclone (110 n mi), cyclone translation speed (8 kt), and the outermost closed isobar (1007 mb).4 The estimated pressure change over 1.39 n mi from reconnaissance data was 33.3 mb, or approximately24 mb per n mi.
Hurricane Patricia6than estimated in real time. A minimum pressure of 934.2 mb was observed around 2300 UTCby an automated weather station at Playa Cuixmala, located on the coast near Emiliano Zapata.Although the wind data from this site failed near landfall, a temperature spike to 28 C wasrecorded, suggesting that the eye passed close to this location. A storm chaser in EmilianoZapata, a couple of nautical miles inland from the landfall point, measured a minimum pressureof 937.8 mb on the eastern edge of the eye at 2313 UTC with simultaneous winds of near tropicalstorm force. The automated weather station in Pista, located about a mile north-northeast ofPlaya Cuixmala, measured a station pressure of 939.4 mb at an elevation of 15 m, which convertsto a sea level pressure of 941.0 mb. The wind data for this site indicate that the station neverexperienced a calm, and thus the winds at the time of the minimum pressure are unknown. A plotof these pressures for comparison is given in Figure 8. A minimum central pressure of 932 mbat landfall is inferred from these data, with the uncertainty of this value likely on the order of 2-3mb. The 932 mb analyzed landfall pressure is the lowest central pressure for a landfalling Pacifichurricane in Mexico in the historical database.There were several reports of high winds near or within Patricia’s radius of maximumwinds; two of these warrant additional discussion. An automated weather station in Chamela,belonging to the Mexican Weather Service (SMN) but operated by the NOAAHydrometeorological Automated Data Systems (HADS), was located about 10 n mi northwest ofPatricia’s eye. Although maximum sustained winds from this site were operationally reported tobe as high as 161 kt, with a gust of 183 kt, a time series of the wind data from this site indicateshigher and unrealistic values. It is not known at what point the data become questionable,however. The site is at an elevation of about 85 m and is surrounded by complex terrain, whichcould result in local accelerations not representative of the cyclone’s sustained wind. In addition,the station was probably located beyond Patricia’s small radius of maximum winds, estimated atabout 5 n mi from the last reconnaissance flight, on the west or weaker side of the tropical cyclone.Based on these factors, the wind data from Chamela are deemed unreliable for estimating themaximum wind speed. The automated weather station in Pista, a little more than 1 n mi inlandfrom the coast near the point of landfall, reported peak sustained winds of 85 kt between 2230and 2300 UTC before the anemometer failed.With no reliable wind measurements near where Patricia made landfall, determining thelandfall intensity is challenging. Since there is good confidence in the landfall pressure, however,it is possible to estimate the maximum sustained winds from the central pressure. The KZCpressure-wind relationship, which as noted above captured very precisely the reconnaissancedata just a few hours prior to landfall, gives a value of 131 kt for a central pressure of 932 mb.5In addition, the Dvorak wind equivalent for the 54-mb filling that occurred from 1800 UTC untillandfall is 50 kt, which implies a landfall intensity of 130 kt. Finally, the modified cyclostrophicbalance equation, using the methodology detailed in Willoughby (1993) produces a landfallintensity of 128 kt6. Based on these data, the landfall intensity of Patricia is estimated to be 130kt; this makes Patricia a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, the5 The remaining inputs for the KZC computation were: latitude (19.4N), radius of tropical-storm-force windsaveraged over the four quadrants of the cyclone (110 n mi), cyclone translation speed (13 kt), and theoutermost closed isobar (1007 mb).6 Input parameters for the modified cyclostrophic computation were central pressure (932 mb) andenvironmental pressure (1007 mb).
Hurricane Patricia7first major hurricane landfall in mainland Mexico since Hurricane Lane in 2006. It should be notedthat this estimate of 130 kt is has much less certainty than the landfall pressure estimate.Patricia is the strongest hurricane on record to affect Mexico in the historical data baseextending back to 1949, eclipsing the October 1959 Manzanillo hurricane (recently reassessed tohave made landfall at an intensit
pass around 0400 UTC 20 October suggested that a small, well-defined circulation had developed . Hurricane Car los traversed the regi on in June. Patricia strengthened into a hurricane shortly after 0000 UTC 22 October
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