HUMAN POPULATION

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SOCI 101Introduction toSociologyHUMANPOPULATIONand UrbanizationSOCIOLOGY.morrisville.edu SOCI 1011Human Population1. The Population“Explosion”On October 31, 2011( /- 6 months), the world saw its7 billionth human being born.During the duration of this 30 minute video *, theworld population will GROW by over 4,000 people.* (Here's the calculation: every second 5 people will be born, while 3 will die, creating 2.3 new world citizens per second ---that's 138citizens per minute * 60 minutes 8,280 people/hour divided by 2.)2Human Population2.a. Demography: the study of human populationDemographers are interested in thecauses and consequences of human population growth.PRE-HISTORY: Impact of the Paleolithic Era(250,000 B.C. – 10,000 B.C.)For most of human history, human population grew to about170 million; changes started with the birth of civilizationi. Impact of the Agricultural Revolution( 10,000 B.C. – 1800 A.D.)Over the next 12,000 years, the human population grew to1 billion;ii. Impact of the Industrial Revolution ( 1800 – 1950):Over 150 years of industrialism, the human population grew to3 billion.iii. Impact of Modern Globalization ( 1950 – 2011):Over the past 60 years, the human population has more thandoubled to reach 7.5 billion.31

ModernGlobalizationAgricultural RevolutionIndustrial Revolution4Human Population20115www.WorldMapper.org62

The Future of Population Growth7The Future of Population Growth8Human Population2.b. Exponential Growth:The Lily Pond ParableIf a pond lily doubles every day and it takes30 days to completely cover a pond,on what day will the pond be 1/2 covered?Click this link to discover the answer! On what day will it be 1/4 covered?What kind of environmental consequences can be expected as the 30th dayapproaches?What will begin to happen past the 30th day?At what point (what day) would preventive action become necessary to stopunpleasant events from happening?With respect to human population, what corresponding day are we at in theworld?93

Human Population3. The population explosionThe formula for calculating population change:Population Growth RateBirths - DeathsTime /- MigrationQ: What part of this formula is affecting the globalpopulation explosion today?A: The population explosion is due to a reduction in mortality(death rate) throughout the world, NOT an increase infertility (birth rate).10Human Population4. Current Population Theory:The “Demographic Transition”Demographic PopulationTransition Changea. Demographic transition theory states that due to adecrease in mortality as a result of technologytransfer we have seen a renewed explosion in worldpopulation since 1950.11Human Population4. The Demographic Transitionb. According to demographictransition theory,4 stages of industrialization(and population transition) have occurred or are currentlytransforming nearly all societies in the modern world.i. Pre-industrial society (agricultural);ii. Early industrial society (simple mechanical);iii. Mature industrial society (complex mechanical);iv. Post-industrial society (technocratic*).* “Technocracy” is the type of social organization that is completelydependent on technological infrastructure (as in communication,transportation, energy networks) and the elite technical experts whobecome important to political rule and economic decision-making.124

Human Population4. The Demographic Transition - GraphNation“X”“CULTURAL LAG”Outback Australia(Aborigines):PGR: 0.824%Congo (Africa)PGR: 3.39%HollandPGR: 0.424%1314Human Population4. The demographic transition, cont.The Good News:c. Worldwide fertility rates are dropping, but are stillabove “replacement rates”: 1965 World fertility rate: NOW: World fertility rate: 1965 US fertility rate: NOW: US fertility rate:5.0 births / woman2.7 births / woman2.91 births / woman1.89 births / womanReplacement fertility rate (no population growth) is2.1 births per woman, or one child to replace each parent(with the “.1” taking into account premature deaths).The Bad News:Current urbanization threatens global environment.From: tml155

16Human Population4. The Dilemma: Overpopulationd. What is overpopulation? It is not a result of sheerpopulation number or density; rather it is related tosustainability and competition for resources.Competition for resources stems from limited quantitiesof raw materials that the natural environment canprovide for a given population: this is known as theplanet’s carrying capacity (c.f., The Lily Pond Parable).In the “Lily Pond” metaphor, the edges of the pond (the boundaries forfurther lily pad growth) represent the carrying capacity of the earthfor further human growth.17Population & Urbanization5. Megacitiesa. The emerging MEGACITIES of the world Megacity: A vast urban area containing a number of cities and theirsurrounding suburbs: “super cities” with more than 10 millionpeople. Most are found in low-income nations.In 1975 there were only 5 megacities worldwide.In 2003, there were 20 megacities.By 2014, the number of megacities had grown to over 30.2020: Megacities 34By 2030, the number of megacities will grow to over 40.In 1950 only 30% of the world pop. (2.5 billion) wereurban: by 2025 over 60% of the world population will beurban (over 5 billion), and 75% by 2050 (possibly over 7billion).186

1920Population & Urbanization6. Urban Problemsa. Problems stemming frominadequate public support andunderdevelopment include: High unemploymentInadequate housingPoor transportationInsufficient medical servicesHigh rates of pollutionFood/water shortage217

22Population & Urbanization6. Megacity Problems: Examplesb. Problems of inadequate housing - ShantytownDevelopment (and clearance)Rio de Janiero, Brazil (pop 12 mil)Lagos, Nigeria, Africa (pop 15mil)23Population & Urbanization6c. Other Infoon Urbanization by Regioni. Latin AmericaMexico City - 2Rio De Janiero (Brazil’s economy)ii. AsiaManila, Phillipinesiii. AfricaSub-Saharan African Urbanization (CSIS)Council on Foreign Relations248

The Lily Pond Parable If a pond lily doubles every day and it takes 30 days to completely cover a pond, on what day will the pond be 1/2 covered? Click this link to discover the answer! On what day will it be 1/4 covered? What kind of environmental consequences can be expected as the 30th day approaches?

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