The Role Of Renewable Transport Fuels In . - IEA Bioenergy

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AMF Annex 58 /IEA Bioenergy Task 41 Project 10A Report from the Advanced MotorFuels TCP and IEA Bioenergy TCPThe Role of RenewableTransport Fuels inDecarbonizing Road TransportSummary ReportDina BacovskyAndrea SonnleitnerBEST – Bioenergy andSustainable Technologies GmbHFranziska Müller-LangerJörg SchröderKathleen MeiselDBFZ DeutschesBiomasseforschungszentrumgemeinnützige GmbHAdam BrownEnergy Insights LtdKyriakos ManiatisEric FeeEuropean Commission, DG ENERAngela Oliveira da CostaJosé Mauro Ferreira CoelhoJuliana Rangel do NascimentoPaula Isabel da Costa BarbosaRachel Martins HenriquesEnergy Research Officeof Brazil (EPE)November 2020Anton FagerströmIVL Swedish EnvironmentalResearch InstituteMasayuki KobayashiYutaka TakadaOrganisation for the Promotion ofLow Emission Vehicles (LEVO)Helen LindblomSwedish Transport AdministrationShaojun ZhangYe WuTsinghua UniversityMarkus MillingerHelmholtz-Zentrum fürUmweltforschung GmbH – UFZMahmood EbadianJack SaddlerUniversity of British ColumbiaAlicia LindauerKevin StorkZia HaqUS Department of EnergyJuhani LaurikkoIlkka HannulaNils-Olof NylundPäivi Aakko-SaksaVTT Technical ResearchCentre of Finland LtdLars WaldheimWaldheim ConsultingEdited by Dina BacovskyBEST — Bioenergy andSustainable Technologies GmbH

Authors and acknowledgementsThis report constitutes the summary of the report on “The Role of Renewable TransportFuels in Decarbonizing Road Transport”, a project that was initiated and carried out jointlyby IEA Bioenergy and the Advanced Motor Fuels (AMF) TCP, with financial support of theEuropean Commission. The project was Task 41 Project 10 under IEA Bioenergy and Annex58 under AMF.Participants in this project were the Contracting Parties of IEA Bioenergy from Brazil, theEuropean Commission, Finland, and USA, the Contracting Parties of AMF from China,Finland, Germany, Japan, Sweden, and USA, and AMF Annex 28 and AMF Annex 59. Allparties provided in-kind contributions, except for the European Commission that alsoprovided 80,000 USD to finance the work of experts. The overall project budget (in-kind pluscash contributions) amounts to 200,000 USD.This “Summary Report” is based on the following report parts that have been publishedseparately: Key Strategies in Selected Countries Production Technologies and Costs Scenarios and Contributions in Selected Countries Deployment Barriers and Policy RecommendationsThis “Summary Report” was written by Dina Bacovsky (BEST – Bioenergy and SustainableTechnologies GmbH), based on the other report parts which were written by the followingauthors:Dina Bacovsky and Andrea Sonnleitner (both BEST – Bioenergy and SustainableTechnologies GmbH), Franziska Müller-Langer, Jörg Schröder, Kathleen Meisel (all DBFZDeutsches Biomasseforschungszentrum gemeinnützige GmbH), Adam Brown (EnergyInsights Ltd), Kyriakos Maniatis, Eric Fee (European Commission, DG ENER), AngelaOliveira da Costa, José Mauro Ferreira Coelho, Juliana Rangel do Nascimento, Paula Isabelda Costa Barbosa, Rachel Martins Henriques (all Energy Research Office of Brazil (EPE)),Anton Fagerström (IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute), Masayuki Kobayashi,Yutaka Takada (both Organisation for the Promotion of Low Emission Vehicles (LEVO)),Helen Lindblom (Swedish Transport Administration), Shaojun Zhang, Ye Wu (both TsinghuaUniversity), Markus Millinger (Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung GmbH – UFZ),Mahmood Ebadian, Jack Saddler (both University of British Columbia), Alicia Lindauer,Kevin Stork, Zia Haq (all US Department of Energy), Juhani Laurikko, Ilkka Hannula, NilsOlof Nylund and Päivi Aakko-Saksa (all VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd),Lars Waldheim (Waldheim Consulting).The IEA Bioenergy TCP is an international platform of cooperation working in the frameworkof the IEA s Technology Collaboration Programmes. IEA Bioenergy’s vision is to achieve asubstantial bioenergy contribution to future global energy demands by accelerating theproduction and use of environmentally sound, socially accepted and cost-competitivebioenergy on a sustainable basis, thus providing increased security of supply whilst reducinggreenhouse gas emissions from energy use.www.ieabioenergy.comThe Advanced Motor Fuels (AMF) TCP also is an international platform of cooperationworking in the framework of the IEA s Technology Collaboration Programmes. AMF s visionis that advanced motor fuels, applicable to all modes of transport, significantly contribute to ai

sustainable society around the globe. AMF brings stakeholders from different continentstogether for pooling and leveraging of knowledge and research capabilities in the field ofadvanced and sustainable transport fuels.www.iea-amf.orgii

The Role of Renewable Fuels in Decarbonizing Road TransportRenewable fuels, in addition to all forms of electric vehicles powered by lowcarbon electricity, can make an important contribution in decarbonizing theroad transport sector, especially in the short and medium term and for allmodes of transport.Bringing down the GHG emissions of the road transport sector to zero by 2050 cannot beachieved by one measure alone.Countries that deploy a set of different measures such as reducing transport demand,improving vehicle efficiency, and adding renewable energy carriers such as biofuels, e-fuels,renewable electricity and renewable hydrogen have the best chances to meet ambitiousdecarbonization goals.Our assessment shows that biofuels contribute most to decarbonization now and up to 2030,2040, or even 2050, depending on the country. In Germany and in the USA, efficiency gainsbecome the main contributor after 2030, and in Finland and Sweden the impact of biofuelsremains largest until around 2040 when the use of electric vehicles takes over. In Brazil,biofuels remain the largest contributor until 2050.BackgroundIn the light of climate change, there is an urgent need to decarbonize our societies. The roadtransport sector is specifically challenging, as transport demand is growing, and so are thesector s GHG emissions. Electric mobility powered by renewable power will not be able tosolve this on its own, and renewable transport fuels will be needed to bridge the gapbetween GHG emission reduction targets and the prospected actual emissions.A team of experts has assessed the transport sector and its projected development up to2030 and 2050 for a number of countries, including Germany, Sweden, Finland, USA, andBrazil. The work was initiated and carried out jointly by two Technology CollaborationProgrammes of the International Energy Agency, namely the IEA Bioenergy TCP and theAdvanced Motor Fuels TCP, with support of the Directorate General for Energy of theEuropean Commission. The analysis is based on current national policies, projections of thevehicle fleet, and on the availability of renewable transport fuels.The objective of the assessment was to quantify the role that renewable fuels play indecarbonizing the road transport sector, and to provide insights to policy makers on howindividual countries differ from one another, which options for decarbonization they have,and best practice examples of successful policies.Research ProtocolThe core of the project was the assessment of the possible evolution of the road transportsectors of five individual countries. Fleet data was provided by country experts andmodelling assumptions as well as the calculation results were discussed with these expertsonline and in an expert workshop.The road transport sectors of Finland, Sweden, Germany, USA and Brazil were modelled inthe VTT-owned ALIISA model. This model includes 5 vehicle categories, 6 propulsionsystems and 12 fuel options. Input data for each country includes assumptions on total salesin each vehicle category for future years, the distribution between the availablepowertrain/fuel options in sales, the evolution of energy efficiency, and the annual drivendistance, which vary between categories, age classes and powertrain/fuel combinations. Themodel then calculates the fleet composition for each year up to 2050, the total fleet energyiii

demand, and the resulting tank-to-wheel (TTW) CO2 emissions. The model assumes zeroCO2 emissions from renewable shares and renewable electricity.These calculations were performed for four different scenarios, the Current PoliciesScenario, MORE EV Scenario, MAX BIO Scenario, and E-FUELS Scenario.Other parts of the project described the key strategies of 7 countries to achieve cleanertransport sectors; renewable fuel production pathways and their technology readiness levels,GHG emissions, costs, and feedstocks availabilities; the applicability of fuels in engines; andimplementation barriers, policy recommendations and best practice policy examples.Key MessagesRenewable transport fuel basics Renewable transport fuels such as biofuels and e-fuels can, depending on thecomponent, be used in low blends, as drop-in fuels with up to 100% substitution,and as special fuels in dedicated or adapted engines/vehicles. However,dedicated alternative fuel vehicles are not yet widely introduced globally. Substantial volumes of sustainable feedstocks could be made available forbiofuels production, sufficient to replace up to 30% of transport fuel demand in2060. When assessed in life cycle terms, biofuels offer significant GHG emissionreductions over fossil fuels. The current average carbon intensity of biofuelsprovided to California ranges from 15 to 65 gCO2e/MJ (versus fossil diesel andgasoline carbon intensities of 95). Future biofuel carbon intensities are expectedto decrease further, and can also be net negative when obtaining credits foravoided GHG emissions from waste disposal or if combined with CCS. Costs of advanced biofuels depend on the production pathway and with a rangefrom 0.35 to 1.58 EUR/l gasoline equivalent are in most cases significantly higherthan the current costs of fossil fuel equivalents. Advanced biofuel technologiesare currently in their early stages of development, and therefore significantpotential for further cost reduction exists.Country assessments Transport sector indicators such as the number of vehicles per capita, transportwork per capita and transport work per geographic area for the countriesassessed (Finland, Sweden, Germany, USA and Brazil) vary highly. In the Current Policies scenario, biofuels already provide the largest contributionto the reduction of TTW CO2 emissions now and up to 2030, 2040, or even 2050,depending on the country. Electric vehicles only catch up with biofuels by 2040. Even if electric vehicles are introduced at a higher rate, biofuels remain thelargest contributor to decarbonization in the short to medium term. Depending on the fuel qualities available in a region, maximizing the use ofbiofuels, and in particular of drop-in biofuels, can reduce TTW CO2 emissions toalmost zero by 2050. The use of e-fuels could close the gap between emission reductions achieved byother measures and ambitious targets. The amount of e-fuels needed to fullydisplace fossil fuels however would require significant amounts of non-fossilelectricity and captured CO2 emissions, which are unlikely to be available in manycountries.iv

Implementation barriers Competition with well-established fossil fuels-based system Fluctuating policy drivers, lack of long-term stable policies Incomplete or unbalanced set of policy measures Public perception of technical performance, potential and sustainability Requirement to build up infrastructure for alternative fuels and alternative fuelvehicles Successful policy examples Blending mandates for biofuels Incentives based on GHG impact Strict and consistent sustainability guidelines Advanced biofuels require specific support, such as separate obligations, RD&Dsupport, and risk guaranteesPolicy suggestions from the expert workshop (Brussels, 18 November 2019) Focus on the carbon intensity of biofuels Get oil majors involved and leverage their existing fuel supply chains anddistribution networks to make biofuels accessible to the marketplace in a costefficient way Turn the tables and establish a requirement to phase out fossil fuels Allow automakers to make use of the GHG emission reductions that the use ofrenewable fuels offers and count these against their CO2 emissions fleet targets(which could then be strengthened)v

ContentThe need to decarbonize the transport sector . 1Country key strategies . 2Ambitions versus trends . 4Assessing the development of the transport sector in selected countries . 7Decarbonization based on current policies . 8The effect of introducing more electric vehicles . 10Maximizing biofuels to reach better decarbonization. 11Using e-fuels to fully decarbonize road transport sectors . 14The availability of renewable transport fuels . 16Low-carbon fuel technologies and their development status . 16Availability and costs of sustainable bioenergy feedstocks for biofuels production . 19The likely costs of emerging biofuels production and the scope for cost reduction . 22Compatibility of fuels with existing engines . 24Role of policy on production and use of emerging biofuels . 26How to reach widespread deployment of renewable fuels . 27Barriers to widespread deployment . 27Well-established transport system to compete with . 27Fluctuating policy drivers . 28Public perception . 28Incomplete set of policy measures . 28Infrastructure requirements . 29Risks associated with the take-up of low-carbon fuels. 29Policy requirements for increased advanced transport fuels deployment . 30Policy best practice. 30Final remarks. 31Abbreviations . 32vi

List of FiguresFigure 1: Countries covered in this report. 1Figure 2: Role of biofuels in transport – IEA 2DS Scenario . 4Figure 3: Comparison of projected biofuels growth to 2025 with WEO Scenarios Source: IEARenewables 2019 and WEO 2018 . 5Figure 4: Finnish road transport CO2 inventory from 2005 (reference year) to 2030 (targetyear) and the trajectories needed to reach emission reductions of -39 or -50 % by 2030. . 5Figure 5: The gap between BAU scenario and the goals for the Swedish transport sector.Source: Swedish Transport Administration. 6Figure 6: Trends in energy consumption in the Japanese transport sector. . 6Figure 7: Energy use per vehicle category in Current Policies scenarios – 2030. . 8Figure 8: Energy use per carrier in the Current Policies scenarios – 2030. . 9Figure 9: Evolution of TTW CO2 emissions in road transport by different measures forFinland, Sweden, Germany, USA and Brazil in the Current Policies scenario. . 10Figure 10: Shares of chargeable vehicles in the national passenger car fleet by 2030 and2050 for Current Policies and MORE EV (MORE EV marked with ). . 11Figure 11: Evolution of TTW CO2 emissions in road transport by different measures forFinland, Sweden, Germany and Brazil in the MAX BIO scenario. . 12Figure 12: Evolution of energy use in road transport by energy carrier for Finland, Sweden,Germany and Brazil in the MAX BIO scenario. . 13Figure 13: Country specific demand for drop-in hydrocarbons in 2050 relative to IEA global2DS supply scenario. . 13Figure 14: Evolution of energy use in road transport by energy carrier for Finland, Sweden,Germany and Brazil in the E-FUELS scenario. 14Figure 15: Relative electricity and CO2 resource requirements related to the national EFUELS scenarios. . 15Figure 16: Overview of technology pathways and their technology readiness level (TRL) . 18Figure 17: Potential global biomass supply in 2030 (Adapted from IRENA, 2014) . 20Figure 18: Projected annual global supply for primary biomass in 2030 . 21Figure 19: Minimum, average, and maximum carbon intensity (CI) values of some of the fuelpathways certified under California LCFS program in 2019 . 22Figure 20: Summary of current cost ranges of advanced biofuels . 23Figure 21: Potential costs of advanced biofuels production after reductions. 23Figure 22: Technology-push and market-pull biofuel policies . 26Figure 23: Multitude of stakeholders involved in the market implementation of alternativefuels and vehicles . 28vii

List of TablesTable 1: Comparison of some transport-related indicators . 7Table 2: Application of transport fuels . 24Table 3: Current and future road transport system . 27Table 4: Main risks for biofuels . 30viii

The need to decarbonize the transport sectorIn the light of climate change, there is an urgent need to decarbonize our societies. Thetransport sector, and within it in particular the road transport sector, is specificallychallenging, as transport demand is growing, and so are the sector s GHG emissions.Decarbonization includes all options to reduce GHG emissions and make road transportcleaner, including low(-fossil)-carbon energy carriers such as biofuels, e-fuels, andrenewable electricity. None of these will be able to solve this grand challen

European Commission. The project was Task 41 Project 10 under IEA Bioenergy and Annex 58 under AMF. Participants in this project were the Contracting Parties of IEA Bioenergy from Brazil, the European Commission, Finland, and USA, the Contracting Parties of AMF from China, Finland, Germany, J

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