Current Climate Trends And Implications

Current Climate Trends and ImplicationsDr. Mark SeeleyProfessor emeritusDepartment of Soil, Water, and ClimateUniversity of MinnesotaSt Paul, MN 55108Crop Insurance ConferenceSeptember 12, 2018Mankato, MN92 degrees F at Mankato, MNSep 12, 1998-31 degrees F Mankato, MNSep 12, 1955Today in Mankato Climate History2” thunderstormat Mankato, MNSep 12, 1984Dust storm at Mankato, MNSep 12, 1931

SegmentsBig picture disparitiesChanges in Regional Climate AttributesExamination of ExtremesCurrent Climate ConditionsOutlooksDisparity in the pace of climate changerelative to temperature

Geographic Disparity in Precipitation Change-IPCC 20132017 warmth by state

Statewide Precipitation Ranks for Jan-Sep, 2017

Minnesota Mean Annual Temperature TrendsTemp trend is upward and more frequently above the90th percentile, pace is 2 F per century

Winter (D,J,F)Spring (M,A,M)Seasonal Statewide Temperature Trends in MNSummer (J,J,A)Fall (S,O,N)Minnesota State‐Averaged Temperature 2.0Maximum Temperature TrendMinimum Temperature TrendDifference (Max minus lyJuneMayAprilMarchFebruary‐3.0Januarydegrees F per century6.0

Trends in mean monthly temperatures at Austin, MN1971-2000 normals vs 1981-2010 normals (F)MonthMin ChangeJanuary 3.0February 0.1March-0.1April 1.3May 0.9June 1.6July 1.1August 1.6September 1.3October 1.7November 2.1December 2.2Max Change 2.1 0.2-0.1 0.2-0.8-0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6-0.3 1.7 1.4Mean Change 2.5 0.1-0.2 0.7 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.9 1.8Trends in mean monthly temperatures at Waseca, MN1971-2000 normals vs 1981-2010 normals (F)MonthMin ChangeJanuary 2.5February 0.5March 0.7April 0.9May 0.7June 1.2July 1.1August 1.1September 1.3October 0.6November 1.1December 1.2Max Change 1.9 0.7 1.1 1.7-0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.4 1.5 0.9Mean Change 2.2 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.5 1.3 1.0

Trends in mean monthly temperatures at Mankato, MN1971-2000 normals vs 1981-2010 normals (F)MonthMin ChangeJanuary 2.3February 0.7March 0.5April 0.6May 1.0June 0.9July 0.8August 1.0September 1.5October 0.8November 1.7December 2.0Max Change 1.5 0.2 0.2 0.6-1.2-1.0-0.6-0.6-0.1-0.5 1.4 0.8Mean Change 1.9 0.4 0.3 0.6-0.2-0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.1 1.5 1.3Great Lakes Region (32 F threshold)Frost-Free Season (days from SpringFallSource: K. Kunkel, Midwest. Reg. Clim. Center

Consequences of Warm Winters andHigher Minimum Temperatures Change in depth and duration of soil and lake freezingMore rapid breakdown of crop residuesLater fall nitrogen applications (soil temp too high)Longer outdoor construction season, fewer adverseweather daysChange in over winter survival rates of insect pests andplant diseases, and soil microbesReduced energy use for heating (fewer HDD)Change in Plant Hardiness ZonesLonger frost-free growing seasonsIncreased number of freeze/thaw cycles (damaged roads)Change in animal migration, hibernation, and foragingLonger exposure times to mold and allergens

Winter (D,J,F)Spring (M,A,M)Seasonal Trends in MN PrecipitationSummer (J,J,A)Fall (S,O,N)

Average Annual PPT 1921‐1950, inAverage Annual PPT 1891‐1920,inAvg. Annual PPT, in 2021 - 2526 - 2829 - 30Average Annual PPT 1951‐1980, in 30Average Annual PPT 1981‐2010, in

Change in Annual Precipitation“Normals” at Austin, 010AMOUNT (IN.)30.94”29.84”28.94”31.97”34.55”12 percent increase since 1941-1970 period

Change in Annual Precipitation“Normals” at Waseca, MNPERIODAMOUNT 32.45”34.69”35.72”30 percent increasesince 1921-1950 periodChange in Annual Precipitation“Normals” at Mankato, MNPERIODAMOUNT 1971-20001981-201017 percent increasesince 1921-1950 1”31.95”

Historical recurrence interval of 2 inch rains in southern and eastern MNwas calculated to be once per year. This is no longer the case.Observed 2 inch rainfalls for the period 1991 –2015 and maximum single day value for variouscommunities:LocationNo. 2 in. rainsAlbert LeaWasecaWinnebagoOwatonnaAmboyWindomFairmontBlue EarthBricelyn495447464240414742Maximum Value e history of PW at MSP since 1948

Observations – Minnesota TrendsMinnesota Mega‐rain EventsAugust 6, 1866, Southern MinnesotaJuly 17‐19 1867, Central MinnesotaJuly 20‐22, 1909, Northern MinnesotaSeptember 9‐10, 1947 Iron RangeJuly 21‐22, 1972, Grand Daddy Flash FloodJune 28‐29, 1975, Northwest MinnesotaJuly 23‐24, 1987, Twin Cities SuperstormJune 9‐10, 2002, Northern MinnesotaSeptember 14‐15, 2004 Southern MinnesotaAugust 18‐20, 2007, Southern MinnesotaSeptember 22‐23, 2010 Southern MinnesotaJune 19‐20, 2012, Northeast MinnesotaJuly 11‐12, 2016 central and east‐central MinnesotaAugust 10‐11, 2016 west‐central and southeastern Minnesota*Defined as 6” or greater rains cover at least 1000 square miles and a peak amountof 8” or greaterShift inPrecipitationRecurrenceIntervalsMega Rains since2002

MN Countiesdesignated forfederal disasterassistance in2012All are associated withdrought except thosewithwhich designatesfor flood or severestormPossible Implications of Changes inPrecipitation Quantity and Character Altered irrigation, drainage, runoff, sediment, andshoreline management Change in storm sewer runoff design Modified fisheries management Mitigation of soil erosion Mitigation of flooding potential

U.S. Drought Monitor 2018

5ft soil moisture profileLamberton, MN

Sep-NovOct-DecNov-JanEnsemble forecast for Oct-Dec, 2018 Temperature Anomaly

Ensemble forecast for precipitation anomaly Oct-Dec 2018SUMMARYTrends toward warmer temperature and more precipitation continuein recent years.Probability for an extended fall season is highProbability for another warm winter (Dec-Feb) is highProbability for early spring is high (at least 80% in most cases).Probability for warmer than normal growing in 2019 season is high.Outlook for moisture is uncertain, but stored soil moisture byDecember of 2018 will be an indicator of production potential for 2019

Dr. Mark Seeley Professor emeritus Department of Soil, Water, and Climate University of Minnesota St Paul, MN 55108 Crop Insurance Conference September 12, 2018 Mankato, MN 2” thunderstorm at Mankato, MN Sep 12, 1984 92 degrees F at Mankato, MN Sep 12, 1998-31 degrees F Mankat