West Africa Fertilizer Watch - No 4 - Analysis (May 1) EN

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WEST AFRICA FERTILIZERWATCHANALYSISEdition No. 4 - 1 May 20201

WEST AFRICA FERTILIZER WATCHPROVIDING WEEKLY INFORMATION ON THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON THE WEST AFRICA FERTILIZER MARKETThe supply chainworks, stocks are built upHIGHLIGHTSSTATSCovid Public-19 MeasuresMeasures affectingfertilizer logisticsFertilizerMarketsColor The supply chain is working, and stocks are being built up,The distribution chainwhileis workingrelativelyformeasuresthe moment,downsome countriesarewelltakingto openup. This isCountryto small producers. Deliveriesundercontractsandtendersaretrue in Ghana and Nigeria, where the economic impacts of theBENINcontinuing, allowing forclose tomaynormalstockseverelevelsthanat thisyear.impacts.pandemicbe morethe timedirectofhealthBURKINA FASO Government responses are being fine-tuned, with responseCAPE VERDEIn Ghana, the fertilizerplansindustrywelcomesthe government’sdecisionand supportprogrammfor inputs (Togo,Nigeria, toSenegal)CHADopen the country. Theybeingare seeingmuchorsmoothermovementof fertilizers.put in place,for agriculturalcommoditychains (CôteCÔTE D’IVOIREd’Ivoire, Mauritania, Chad).GAMBIAIn Nigeria, a similar situationis expectedfromonwards.Indeed,Subsidies,first of allfor nextfoodweekcrops?While foodcropsGHANAthe president announcedend ofa thethe country'stwoonlytheconsumelittleconfinementmore than halfin(54%)of the fertilizersGUINEA BISSAUmain cities, Lagos and consumedAbuja, as ofMay 4.For andthe receivetime being,situationin WestAfricabarelythe20%of theGUINEAremains the same withrecommendedfunctional butinputs,impactedfreight shouldtransport.governmentsencourage localLIBERIAfood production and maintain the production level andMALIpurchasing powerof cashcrop farmers.ImplementationGovernment responsesarebecomingmoreMAURITANIAoptions should be based on ECOWAS regulations and theNIGERrefinedfuture Fertilizer Subsidy Directive, as well as existing nationalNIGERIAsubsidy programs (see the map published in Issue 2 andSENEGALAs reported last week,RODEVA’sthe Presidentof Nigeria ordered a reduction in theviewpoint).SIERRA LEONEprice of fertilizer the Responses from the seed sector are being prepared withTOGOnormal modus operandiof thefromPFI, thegovernmentimportslarge volumessupportCORAF,which notesthat enoughcertified seedCOVID-19 pandemic:Economic status:Fertilizer market indicators:of fertilizer and obtainsforit frommarketsat preferentialprices.rice isinternationalavailable for thenext growingseason, whileall otherdiagnosed cases on a weekgovernment measures,% stock% coveragetotal marketurea price ratioThese volumes are thendistributedto farmerscropshave a shortfallin thethroughquantityprivateof seeddistributionrequired.StableNo impact &/or improvement80% Up to 30%80% channels. Through this mechanism, the program offers a fixed and uniformUpto25%Limitedimpact50–80%30–50%50– 80%COVID-19HEALTHECONOMICPORTDOMESTIC25% – 50%Moderate impact30 – 50%50 – 80%30 – 50%price of 5,500 Naira per50 kg bagof NPK MEASURES20-10-10 fertilizer% CHANGEMEASURESOPERATIONS whileTRANSPORT 50%Strong impact 30%80% 30%BORDERAGRO INPUTINVENTORIESthe averageFERTILIZER priceRETAIL/FOBremunerating the privatesector actors.In comparison,No dataNo dataNo dataNo dataNo dataCROSSINGRETAIL SHOPS& STOCKSSUBSIDIESPRICE RATIOof the same grade of fertilizer in a fully private market is around 8,000NOUAKCHOTTFERTILIZER USE FOR FOOD CROPS VS CASH CROPSNaira. With the special fertilizerpricesubsidy from the PFI, fertilizer will bePort ofNouakchottMAURITANIAsold to farmers this year at 5,000 Naira.Main fertilizer usage:CottonCerealsCocoa40MALIIn Togo, the government DAKARplans toSENEGALannounce an agricultural response plan731NIGERCHADagainst COVID-19 to prevent a potential156 food crisis. The plan, details of7040Port ofBURKINA FASO NIAMEYwhich have not yet beenDakar communicated, is based on three main areas: 1)BANJUL247Port ofthe supply of agriculturalandirrigation equipment, 2) support ises promoting agricultural labour, and 3) the provision of inputofBissaucredit at subsidized prices.PortGUINEABENINGAMBIA362CONAKRY16710% FERTILIZER USEDGUINEABISSAU5Port ofConakrySIERRE LEONEFREETOWNPort of12CÔTE 215ON FOOD CROP80%

Focus on the use of fertilizers inagricultural sectorsIn West Africa, food crops consume the majority of fertilizers in 10 out of17 countries (more than 50%, orange and green), and even more than 80%in 6 countries (Cape Verde, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Mauritaniaand Niger). These 10 countries account for about two thirds (64%) of totalregional consumption. Conversely, cash crops account for more than 70%of the fertilizer market in Côte d'Ivoire, Chad, and Benin (cotton and cocoa,in red on the map).Encouraging local food production and maintaining theproduction level and purchasing power of cash crop farmers.Fertilizers contribute directly to food security when used on food crops.They contribute indirectly by providing income to governments andproducers of cash crops for export, or to local industries and markets.According to our estimates, about 53% of fertilizers are used on foodcrops in the sub-region, a rate that drops to 40% in the UEMOA area dueto the predominance of cotton systems.This week, our map shows the percentage of fertilizer use by food crops(green if more than 80% of the market) or commercial crops (red if morethan 70% of the market) in 2019.Food crops include cereals,pulses, roots and tubers, andfruits and vegetables mainly forlocal consumption. Cash cropsinclude crops for export (cocoa,cotton, coffee, rubber, fruit) orlocal industrial processing (palmoil, sugar cane). The data usedcome from crop consumptionstudiesconductedbyAfricaFertilizer.org, WAFA, andEnGRAIS, and from data collectedby the Fertilizer TechnicalWorking Groups (FTWG) andfrom WAFA members andnational statistical services. Theycover the period 2015-2019.3

Figure 1: collection of the 4 thematic maps published since April 10th#4 - Fertilizer use on food and cash crops#3 - Ratio of retail price to FOB price for urea in April 2020#2 - Share of subsidized fertilizers in the domestic market#1 - Coverage of fertilizer needs as of April 10, 20204

The expert view of the week, by RODEVAFor cash crops : As the commodity chains are already structured, theimplementation of traceable, transparent, and private sectorinclusive fertilizer subsidy systems through the use of e-systemsand e-vouchers remains entirely possible and advisable. And theexport of these products will contribute to the possibility for statesto continue to subsidise fertilisers in subsequent years. Since the Abuja summit in 2006, IFDC and its partners, includingRODEVA (then AfricAgriConsult), have joined forces to set up“smart” subsidies which, over the years, have been enriched withincreasingly efficient traceability and transparency systems throughthe use of computer platforms, electronic reading vouchers (evouchers), and the affiliation of the private sector to theseplatforms for the "online" tracking of all transactions. Convincing successes have been achieved in Rwanda, Burundi,South Sudan. Closer to home, a pilot has been carried out in Niger(IFDC's PARSEN project on MCC / MCA funding within theframework of the Fertilizer Sector Reform in Niger) and a study isunderway in Senegal with the Dundël Suuf project on USAIDfunding.Q: What are the strategies for adjusting to COVID-19 fertilizer subsidyschemes according to the targeted crops? Should priority be given to foodcrops or cash crops or both?A: A consensus is emerging on the massive use of fertilizer subsidies toachieve sufficient yield levels to prevent a major food crisis on the Africancontinent.For food crops: It is necessary to ensure a sufficient harvest through a wide use offertilizers, by subsidizing them, in order to obtain good crop yieldsto ensure food self-sufficiency and a local trade of food ataffordable prices (abundant supply) for the final consumer. Incountries where subsidy programmes are not operational, and inview of the urgency of the situation (fertilizers must be used inJune/July), the subsidy must be accessible to all, even if in this caseof emergency it will be necessary to sacrifice certain principles oftraceability. In countries where the "Transfert / Mobile Money" system alreadyexists (Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Senegal) the subsidy could be madeavailable, via this channel, to beneficiaries with a basic mobilephone. In the other countries, and given the urgency we know, there is noother solution than state subsidies via the supply side with all thewell-known disadvantages and risks of deviations from thisoperational mode, which can nevertheless be minimised by thewide dissemination (by radio) of a reference price, derived frommarket intelligence, which should not be exceeded.Ongoing efforts to apply innovative principles to improve subsidyprograms should therefore be supported as much as possible throughoutthe ECOWAS region.Contacts: Joël Le Turionerjlt@rodeva.com 33619322448 (WA)www.rodeva.com5

The seed sector's responsesare being prepared.In this edition, CORAF's PAIRED project presents the strategy of the seedsector to fight against the impacts of COVID-19 and ensure a good supplyof quality seeds. In future editions, we will produce a joint special issue oncustoms duties and VAT rates and taxes applicable to seeds, fertilizers andcrop protection products in West Africa.It is recommended that, in this difficult period of closure where manycountries have closed their borders, member countries should ensure thatcurrent stocks of first generation seed (EGS) and certified seed are notconstrained when crossing borders and that every effort is made toproduce the necessary seed for the next production season.CORAF's response to the COVID crisis 19 toensure farmers' access to quality seedsIn the meantime, CORAF will provide support on the following aspects inorder to shed light on the seed situation in the region for the benefit of therespective stakeholders: Seed availability: Is there sufficient quantity of seed (metrics onbreeder, foundation and certified seed) of priority crops indifferent countries? What are the access points for seed deliveries? Seeds are accessible: To what extent are available seeds accessibleto farmers? Seed quality assurance and traceability: Does the seed of thedesired varieties have the required quality? Information on other organizations and/or initiatives atnational/regional level involved in the seed sector (What type ofintervention do they provide) Information on measures affecting or facilitating trade and mobilityof agricultural inputs, including seeds and other plant materials.Quality seed, including vegetatively propagated material, is the basis foragricultural production. The pervasive problems associated with seeds inour region are availability, quality and affordability, in terms of farmers'physical access to the quantities required at the right time and at the rightprice.The current COVID-19 pandemic continues to pose a growing threat to thecitizens of ECOWAS and CILSS member states, the vast majority of whomare farmers whose lives and livelihoods are at risk. The West and CentralAfrican Council for Agricultural Research and Development (CORAF), as amajor player in the seed sector in West Africa, has already warnedstakeholders in the region that the seed situation needs to be adequatelyaddressed to avoid the consequences of the negative impact of the COVID19 crisis.Contacts: Hippolyte AFFOGNON h.affognon@coraf.org www.coraf.orgCORAF recommended that a concerted effort be made to ensure theavailability and access to the different seed classes (breeding, basic andcertified) of staple food crops in the ECOWAS and CILSS region so that thenext growing season can start on a good footing.6

Overview of seed requirementsfor the main staple cropsin the 2020 growing seasonIn general, it is noteworthy that there is sufficient certified seeds for ricewhile all other crops have a deficit in the required amount of seeds for theupcoming cropping season. However, it should be noted that the informalseed systems (farmer saved seed, non-supervised seed production) areplaying a pivotal role in the seed market in the region. The quantities ofseed provided by the informal systems are estimated globally around 70%of what is needed, this varies by crop and country.The West and Central African Council for Agricultural Research andDevelopment (CORAF) has recommended that concerted effort should bemade to ensure the availability and access to certified seeds of majorstaple food crops in the ECOWAS and CILSS region to avert the loomingconsequences of the negative impacts of the COVID 19 pandemic. In thisregard, CORAF is supporting country and regional efforts in the seed sectorby providing critical information on the region’s seed requirement vis-a-visthe available stocks with a view to revealing the gap and therefore guidingcountries how to make required decisions.Figure 2: Seed supply and demand for major cropsThe graph below presents the quantities of certified seeds of prioritystaple crops currently available in the region and an estimate of thequantify of seeds required for each of the major staple food crops. Datawere collected from the national seed committee of each member State.The quantities available of certified seeds are from the formal seed sectorunder the control of the national seed systems certified by governmentofficials, while the quantities of certified seed needed are estimated basedon the area under cultivation, the seed replacement rate and trends. Datafrom Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea Bissau are missing and not includedin the general situation.Need (Tons)400,000Available (Tons)Metric 000Source: CORAF, April 20207peaoundn GrCropCowtilleMghumSorceRiMaize-

About the West Africa Fertilizer WatchIn response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the West Africa FertilizerAssociation (WAFA), the International Fertilizer Development Center(IFDC) and its AfricaFertilizer.Org (AFO) initiative have launched the WestAfrica Fertilizer Watch on April 10th. The West Africa Watch has beengreatly appreciated by private sector businesses all along the value chain,public sector and development partners responsible for policy and foodsecurity interventions, including Government Ministries, RegionalEconomic Communities (ECOWAS, CILSS, UEMOA), and the African Unionas a valuable tool to monitor actions and analyze data to help in decisionmaking related to fertilizer availability and use.and met will an effective and coordinated response by developmentpartners and the private sector.We expect that as the seasonal agricultural production progresses and theCOVID-19 global health emergency evolves, other related indicators anddata will need to be tracked, whereupon IFDC and AfricaFertilizer.org willupdate the Watch accordingly.After West Africa, the International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC)and our AfricaFertilizer.Org (AFO) initiative have launched a weekly East &Southern Africa (ESA) COVID-19 Fertilizer Watch, started Thursday, April23rd, and intends to launch an Africa-wide COVID-19 Fertilizer Watchshortly.A one-page document will specifically track the impact of COVID-19country-specific mitigation measures on the delivery and use of fertilizersin African countries and in doing so will allow public and private sectors tomonitor agricultural production and food security in the region.WAFA, IFDC/EnGRAIS and AfricaFertilizer.org would like to thank theprivate and public sector partners who have provided input and vitalinformation for the West Africa Fertilizer Watch. We would also like tothank USAID for their support through the USAID West Africa whosupports the Feed the Future EnGRAIS project implemented by IFDC.Over the coming months, IFDC and its partners will use the weekly Watchto ensure that fertilizers are moving freely across the region, from portsand plants to farms, and that sufficient quantities and appropriatefertilizers are reaching farmers in time for planting, and to ensure thatCOVID-19 impacts on productivity and food security can be identified earlyMore info at -watch/2

About WAFA, IFDC and AfricaFertilizer.orgAbout IFDCAbout AfricaFertilizer.orgAbout WAFAAn independent non-profit organization,IFDC works throughout Africa and Asia toincrease soil fertility and develop inclusivemarket systems. Combining ent, holistic market systemsdevelopment, and strategic partnerships,the organization bridges the gap l solutions, resulting in improvedhousehold food security and enriched familylivelihoods around the world. Using aninclusive approach, IFDC employs locallydriven solutions that are environmentallysound and impact oriented that bringchange at local, regional, and nationallevels.The AfricaFertilizer.org (AFO) initiative is thepremier source for fertilizer statistics andinformation in Africa. It is hosted by IFDC andsupported by several partners key amongthem being IFA, Argus Media, andDevelopment Gateway. Since 2009, AFO hasbeen collecting, processing, and publishingfertilizer production, trade, and consumptionstatistics for the main fertilizer markets in subSaharan Africa. AFO has an extensive networkof fertilizer industry players in the mainfertilizer trade corridors and maintains keyinformation on the major producers, uppliers, various distributionchannels, and agricultural service suppliers(laboratory services, research, creditproviders, and warehousing/storage services).West African Fertilizer Association (WAFA) is anon-profit private sector initiative established toaddress the challenges of the fertilizer industry inWest Africa. Representing all the ECOWAScountries, the member companies combineresources to find solutions to market challengesand promote best practices in fertilizerproduction and use in order to optimize theregion’s potential for crop production and foodsecurity. Established in 2016, the association has58 member companies in 11 different countries.3

Port of Tema Port of Takoradi Port of Port of San Pedro Port of Lagos Monrovia Port of Freetown Port of . cover the period 2015-2019. In West Africa, food crops consume the majority of fertilizers in 10 out of . collection of the 4 thematic maps published since April 10th #4 - Fertilizer

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