Projections Of Education Statistics To 2024

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Projections of EducationStatistics to 2024Forty-third Edition2021202320212023202022202402020222024NCES 2016-013U . S . D E PA R T M E N T O F E D U C AT I O N

Projections of EducationStatistics to 2024Forty-third EditionSeptember 2016William J. HussarNational Center for Education StatisticsTabitha M. BaileyIHS Global Inc.NCES 2016-013U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION

U.S. Department of EducationJohn B. King, Jr.SecretaryInstitute of Education SciencesRuth NeildDeputy Director for Policy and ResearchDelegated Duties of the DirectorNational Center for Education StatisticsPeggy G. CarrActing CommissionerThe National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is the primary federal entity for collecting, analyzing, and reportingdata related to education in the United States and other nations. It fulfills a congressional mandate to collect, collate, analyze,and report full and complete statistics on the condition of education in the United States; conduct and publish reports andspecialized analyses of the meaning and significance of such statistics; assist state and local education agencies in improvingtheir statistical systems; and review and report on education activities in foreign countries.NCES activities are designed to address high-priority education data needs; provide consistent, reliable, complete, andaccurate indicators of education status and trends; and report timely, useful, and high-quality data to the U.S. Departmentof Education, the Congress, the states, other education policymakers, practitioners, data users, and the general public. Unlessspecifically noted, all information contained herein is in the public domain.We strive to make our products available in a variety of formats and in language that is appropriate to a variety of audiences.You, as our customer, are the best judge of our success in communicating information effectively. If you have any comments orsuggestions about this or any other NCES product or report, we would like to hear from you. Please direct your comments toNCES, IES, U.S. Department of EducationPotomac Center Plaza550 12th Street, SWWashington, DC 20202September 2016The NCES Home Page address is http://nces.ed.gov.The NCES Publications and Products address is http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch.This report was prepared in part under Contract No. ED-IES-14-O-5005 with IHS Global Inc. Mention of trade names,commercial products, or organizations does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.Suggested CitationHussar, W.J., and Bailey, T.M. (2016). Projections of Education Statistics to 2024 (NCES 2016-013). U.S. Department of Education,National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.Content ContactWilliam J. Hussar(202) 245-6389william.hussar@ed.gov

ForewordProjections of Education Statistics to 2024 is the 43rd reportin a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on elementaryand secondary schools and degree-granting postsecondaryinstitutions. This report provides revisions of projectionsshown in Projections of Education Statistics to 2023 andprojections of enrollment, graduates, teachers, andexpenditures to the year 2024.In addition to projections at the national level, the reportincludes projections of public elementary and secondaryschool enrollment and public high school graduates to theyear 2024 at the state level. The projections in this reportwere produced by the National Center for EducationStatistics (NCES) to provide researchers, policy analysts,and others with state-level projections developed using aconsistent methodology. They are not intended to supplantdetailed projections prepared for individual states.Assumptions regarding the population and the economy arethe key factors underlying the projections of education statistics.NCES projections do not reflect changes in national, state,or local education policies that may affect education statistics.Appendix A of this report outlines the projection methodologyand describes the models and assumptions used to developthe national and state projections. The enrollment models useenrollment data and population estimates and projections fromNCES and the U.S. Census Bureau. The models are based onthe mathematical projection of past data patterns into the future.The models also use projections of economic variables fromIHS Global Inc., an economic forecasting service.The projections presented in this report are based on the2010 census and assumptions for the fertility rate, internalmigration, net immigration, and mortality rate from theCensus Bureau. For further information, see appendix A.Thomas D. Snyder, SupervisorAnnual Reports and Information StaffNational Center for Education StatisticsProjections of Education Statistics to 2024    iii

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ContentsPageForeword.iiiList of Tables. viiList of Figures. xiAbout This Report. 1Projections . 1Limitations of Projections . 1Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment .3Introduction. 3Accuracy of Projections. 3National. 4State and Regional (Public School Data). 6Race/Ethnicity (Public School Data). 8Section 2. Elementary and Secondary Teachers.9Introduction. 9Accuracy of Projections. 9Teachers in Elementary and Secondary Schools. 10Section 3. High School Graduates.13Introduction. 13Accuracy of Projections. 13National. 14State and Regional (Public School Data). 15Race/Ethnicity (Public School Data). 17Section 4. Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education.19Introduction. 19Accuracy of Projections. 19Current Expenditures. 20Section 5. Enrollment in Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions.23Introduction. 23Accuracy of Projections. 23Total Enrollment. 24Enrollment by Selected Characteristics and Control of Institution. 25First-Time Freshmen Enrollment . 28Projections of Education Statistics to 2024    v

PageSection 6. Postsecondary Degrees Conferred.29Introduction. 29Accuracy of Projections. 29Degrees, by Level of Degree and Sex of Recipient. 30Reference Tables.33Technical Appendixes.67Appendix A. Introduction to Projection Methodology.69A.0. Introduction to Projection Methodology. 69A.1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment. 76A.2. Elementary and Secondary Teachers. 86A.3. High School Graduates. 93A.4. Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education. 98A.5. Enrollment in Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions. 102A.6. Postsecondary Degrees Conferred. 122Appendix B. Supplementary Tables.125Appendix C. Data Sources.133Appendix D. References.147Appendix E. List of Abbreviations.149Appendix F. Glossary.151vi   Contents

List of 17.18.19.20.21.PageEnrollment in elementary, secondary, and degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by level and controlof institution: Selected years, 1869–70 through fall 2024. 35Enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by level and grade: Selected years, fall 1980 throughfall 2024. 36Enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years,fall 1990 through fall 2024. 38Public school enrollment in prekindergarten through grade 8, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selectedyears, fall 1990 through fall 2024. 40Public school enrollment in grades 9 through 12, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, fall 1990through fall 2024. 42Enrollment and percentage distribution of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/ethnicity and region: Selected years, fall 1995 through fall 2024. 44Enrollment and percentage distribution of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/ethnicity and level of education: Fall 1999 through fall 2024. 46Public and private elementary and secondary teachers, enrollment, pupil/teacher ratios, and new teacherhires: Selected years, fall 1955 through fall 2024. 48High school graduates, by sex and control of school: Selected years, 1869–70 through 2024–25. 49Public high school graduates, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, 1980–81 through 2024–25. 50Public high school graduates, by race/ethnicity: 1998–99 through 2024–25. 52Current expenditures and current expenditures per pupil in public elementary and secondary schools:1989–90 through 2024–25. 53Total fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status, sex of student,and control of institution: Selected years, 1947 through 2024. 54Total fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by level and control of institution,attendance status, and sex of student: Selected years, 1970 through 2024. 56Total fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status, sex, and age:Selected years, 1970 through 2024. 58Total undergraduate fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status,sex of student, and control and level of institution: Selected years, 1970 through 2024. 60Total postbaccalaureate fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status,sex of student, and control of institution: 1967 through 2024. 62Total fall enrollment of first-time degree/certificate-seeking students in degree-granting postsecondaryinstitutions, by attendance status, sex of student, and level and control of institution: 1955 through 2024. 63Fall enrollment of U.S. residents in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by race/ethnicity: 1976through 2024. 64Full-time-equivalent fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by control and level ofinstitution: 1967 through 2024. 65Degrees conferred by degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by level of degree and sex of student:Selected years, 1869–70 through 2024–25. 66Projections of Education Statistics to 2024    vii

TablePageAppendix A Text TablesA.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of enrollment projections, by lead time, control of school,and grade in elementary and secondary schools: Projections of Education Statistics to 1984–85 throughProjections of Education Statistics to 2023. 79B.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of enrollment projections, by lead time and race/ethnicity:Projections of Education Statistics to 1984–85 through Projections of Education Statisticsto 2023. 81C.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections of number of public elementary and secondaryschool teachers, by lead time: Projections of Education Statistics to 1997–98 through Projections of EducationStatistics to 2023. 89D.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections of high school graduates, by lead time and controlof school: Projections of Education Statistics to 2000 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2023. 94E.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections of public high school graduates, by lead time andrace/ethnicity: Projections of

F.ean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections for total and per pupil current expenditures for M public elementary and secondary education, by lead time: Projections of Education Statistics to 1984–85. through . Pro

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