Introduction To Management Science - Pearson
Introduction toManagement ScienceA01 TAYL0660 13 SE FM.indd 19/13/17 3:35 PM
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13th EditionIntroduction toManagementScienceBernard W. Taylor IIIVirginia Polytechnic Institute and State UniversityNew York, NYA01 TAYL0660 13 SE FM.indd 39/13/17 3:35 PM
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To Diane, Kathleen, and LindseyA01 TAYL0660 13 SE FM.indd 59/13/17 3:35 PM
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Brief ContentsPreface xiii12Decision Analysis 55313Queuing Analysis 6141Management Science 12Linear Programming: ModelFormulation and GraphicalSolution 3314Simulation 654Linear Programming:Computer Solution andSensitivity Analysis 7615Forecasting 70616Inventory Management 7733Appendix ALinear Programming:Modeling Examples 114Normal and Chi-Square Tables 5Integer Programming 187Appendix CThe Poisson and Exponential Distributions 8216Transportation,Transshipment, andAssignment Problems 240Solutions to Selected Odd-Numbered Problems 823Glossary 832Index 8374815Appendix BSetting Up and Editing a Spreadsheet 817The following items can be found on the Companion Website that accompanies this text:7Network Flow Models 2998Project Management 3509Multicriteria DecisionMaking 422Module C: Integer Programming: The Branch andBound Method C-1Nonlinear Programming 493Module D: Nonlinear Programming SolutionTechniques D-1Module E: Game Theory E-1Module F: Markov Analysis F-11011Probability and Statistics 518Web Site ModulesModule A: The Simplex Solution Method A-1Module B: Transportation and Assignment SolutionMethods B-1viiA01 TAYL0660 13 SE FM.indd 79/13/17 3:35 PM
ContentsPreface 1Management Science Application:xiiiAllocating Seat Capacity on IndianRailways Using Linear Programming 38Graphical Solutions of Linear ProgrammingModels 38Management Science 1The Management Science Approach to ProblemSolving 2Management Science Application:Time Out: for Pioneers in ManagementRenewable Energy Investment Decisions atGE Energy A Minimization Model Example Science 5Management Science Application:Room Pricing with Management Scienceand Analytics at Marriott Management Science and Business Analytics Model Building: Break-Even Analysis Computer Solution Management Science Modeling Techniques Management Science Application:6781316Determining Optimal Fertilizer Mixes atSoquimich (South America) 54Irregular Types of Linear ProgrammingProblems 56Characteristics of Linear ProgrammingProblems 59Management Science Application:Management Science and Analytics 17Business Usage of Management ScienceTechniques 19SummaryProblems60 Example Problem Solutions64 Case Problem 7360 Management Science in Health Care Management Science Models in DecisionSupport Systems 2021Linear Programming:Computer Solution andSensitivity Analysis 76Summary30Computer Solution Management Science Application:2505023 Problems23 Case ProblemLinear Programming:Model Formulation andGraphical Solution 33Model Formulation A Maximization Model Example 3434Time Out: for George B. Dantzig 35377Management Science Application:Scheduling Air Ambulance Service inOntario (Canada) 82Management Science Application:Improving Profitability at Norske Skogwith Linear Programming Sensitivity Analysis SummaryProblems95 Example Problem Solutions98 Case Problem 111838495 viiiA01 TAYL0660 13 SE FM.indd 89/13/17 3:35 PM
Contents ix4Linear Programming:Modeling Examples 114Management Science Application:A Product Mix Example 115Time Out: for George B. Dantzig 120120123128SummaryProblemsA Diet Example An Investment Example A Marketing Example A Set Covering Model for DeterminingFire Station Locations in Istanbul 6Management Science Application:Scheduling Radio Ads with Analytics andLinear Programming A Transportation Example A Blend Example A Multiperiod Scheduling Example 129133136140Reducing Transportation Costs in theCalifornia Cut Flower Industry Management Science Application:Analyzing Container Traffic Potentialat the Port of Davisville (RI) The Assignment Model Computer Solution of an Assignment Problem 147Supplying Empty Freight Cars at UnionPacific Railroad Assigning Umpire Crews at ProfessionalTennis Tournaments Management Science Application:Time Out: for Ralph E. Gomory Management Science Application:Scheduling Appeals Court Sessionsin Virginia with Integer Programming Management Science Application:193194197Forming Business Case Student Teamsat Indiana University 2020–1 Integer Programming Modeling Examples 202A01 TAYL0660 13 SE FM.indd 9257Management Science Application:188191191250254254Management Science Application:150 Integer Programming 187Selecting Volunteer Teams at Eli Lillyto Serve in Impoverished Communities Integer Programming Graphical Solution Computer Solution of Integer ProgrammingProblems with Excel and QM for Windows 244Computer Solution of a TransportationProblem 244Management Science Application:Integer Programming Models 243Management Science Application:Employee Scheduling with ManagementScience 143A Data Envelopment Analysis Example 1455241and Tjalling C. Koopmans Management Science Application:149 Example Problem Solutions152 Case Problem 182Transportation,Transshipment, andAssignment Problems 240Time Out: for Frank L. HitchcockLinear Programming Blending Applicationsin the Petroleum Industry 141SummaryProblems212 The Transportation Model Management Science Application:Evaluating American Red Cross ChaptersUsing DEA 211 Example Problem Solution212 Case Problem 230211SummaryProblems7259 Example Problem Solution260 Case Problem 290258259 Network Flow Models 299Network Components The Shortest Route Problem The Minimal Spanning Tree Problem 300301309Management Science Application:Determining Optimal Milk CollectionRoutes in Italy The Maximal Flow Problem Time Out: for E. W. Dijkstra, L. R. Ford, Jr.,and D. R. Fulkerson 3123133149/13/17 3:35 PM
xContentsManagement Science Application:Distributing Railway Cars to Customersat CSX SummaryProblems8320 Example Problem Solution322 Case Problem 342Management Science Application:Selecting Sustainable TransportationRoutes Across the Pyrenees Using AHP 315Management Science Application:320 Ranking Twentieth-Century ArmyGenerals Using AHP Scoring Models Project Management 350The Elements of Project Management Management Science Application:The Panama Canal Expansion Project Time Out: for Henry Gantt Mangement Science Application:Time Out: for Morgan R. Walker, James E.Kelley, Jr., and D. G. Malcolm Probabilistic Activity Times A Scoring Model for DeterminingU.S. Army Installation Regions 35335710SummaryProblems9393 Example Problem Solution396 Case Problem 419Workforce Planning for the U.S. ArmyMedical Department with GoalProgramming 430Time Out: for Abraham Charnes andWilliam W. Cooper The Analytical Hierarchy Process A01 TAYL0660 13 SE FM.indd 10SummaryProblems393 Management Science Application:434437499503Making Solar Power Decisions atLockheed Martin with NonlinearProgramming 504Nonlinear Model Examples 505385Goal Programming 423Graphical Interpretation of Goal Programming 427Computer Solution of Goal ProgrammingProblems with QM for Windows and Excel 430494497Management Science Application:384Multicriteria DecisionMaking 422Nonlinear Programming 493Nonlinear Profit Analysis Constrained Optimization Solution of Nonlinear Programming Problemswith Excel A Nonlinear Programming Model withMultiple Constraints 362369Salvaging the Costa Concordia Cruise Ship 375Microsoft Project 377Project Crashing and Time–Cost Trade-Off 380Reconstructing the Pentagon after 9/11 Formulating the CPM/PERT Networkas a Linear Programming Model 449Summary 449 Example ProblemSolutions 450 Problems 453 CaseProblem 488Management Science Application:Management Science Application:444447Management Science Application:351Transportation Construction Projects 359CPM/PERT 36043711510 Example Problem Solution511 Case Problem 516511 Probability and Statistics 518Types of Probability Fundamentals of Probability 519521Management Science Application:Treasure Hunting with Probabilityand Statistics Statistical Independence and Dependence Expected Value 523524531Management Science Application:A Probability Model for AnalyzingCoast Guard Patrol Effectiveness The Normal Distribution SummaryProblems543 Example Problem Solution545 Case Problem 551532533543 9/13/17 3:35 PM
Contents xi12Decision Analysis 553Continuous Probability Distributions Statistical Analysis of Simulation Results Components of Decision Making Decision Making Without Probabilities Management Science Application:554555Predicting Somalian Pirate Attacks UsingSimulation 675Crystal Ball 676Verification of the Simulation Model 683Areas of Simulation Application 683Management Science Application:Planning for Terrorist Attacks andEpidemics in Los Angeles Countywith Decision Analysis 562Decision Making with Probabilities 562Decision Analysis With Additional Information 576Utility 582SummaryProblems13584 Example Problem Solutions587 Case Problem 610584 SummaryProblems15615616Time Out: for Agner Krarup Erlang Management Science Application:617Using Queuing Analysis to Design HealthCenters in Abu Dhabi Undefined and Constant Service Times Finite Queue Length Forecasting Advertising Demand at NBC Time Series Methods Forecasting Empty Shipping Containersat CSAV (Chile) Management Science Application624625628Forecasting Trends for Denim Jeans Forecast Accuracy Time Series Forecasting Using Excel Management Science Application:Demand Forecasting at Zara Regression Methods 631631634Management Science Application:An Airline Passenger Forecasting Model Data Mining Making Sure 911 Calls Get Through at AT&T 637Additional Types of Queuing Systems 63914640 Example Problem Solutions642 Case Problem 651The Monte Carlo Process 655Time Out: for John Von Neumann 660Computer Simulation with Excel Spreadsheets 660Simulation of a Queuing System 665Management Science Application:Planning for Catastrophic DiseaseOutbreaks Using Simulation A01 TAYL0660 13 SE FM.indd 11SummaryProblems640 Simulation 654668707709710Management Science Application:Management Science Application:SummaryProblems685 Forecasting 706Management Science Application:Management Science Application:Providing Telephone Order Servicein the Retail Catalog Business Finite Calling Population The Multiple-Server Waiting Line 684 Example Problem Solution688 Case Problem 702Forecasting Components Queuing Analysis 614Elements of Waiting Line Analysis The Single-Server Waiting Line System 66967416740 Example Problem Solutions743 Case Problem 769714719722726727730734739740 Inventory Management 773Elements of Inventory Management 774Management Science Application:Inventory Optimization at Procter &Gamble 776Inventory Control Systems 777Time Out: for Ford Harris Economic Order Quantity Models The Basic EOQ Model 7787787799/13/17 3:35 PM
xiiContentsThe EOQ Model with NoninstantaneousReceipt 784The EOQ Model with Shortages 787Management Science Application:Inventory Management at Zara EOQ Analysis with QM for Windows EOQ Analysis with Excel and Excel QM Quantity Discounts 790790791792Management Science Application:Quantity Discount Orders at Mars 795Reorder Point 796Determining Safety Stock by Using ServiceLevels 798Order Quantity for a Periodic InventorySystem 800SummaryProblems802 Example Problem Solution804 Case Problem 812802 815Appendix BSetting Up and Editing a Spreadsheet A01 TAYL0660 13 SE FM.indd 12The Poisson and Exponential Distributions 821Solutions to Selected Odd-Numbered Problems 823Glossary 832Index 837The following items can be found on the CompanionWeb site that accompanies this text:Web Site ModulesModule A: The Simplex Solution Method A-1Module B: Transportation and Assignment SolutionMethods B-1Module C: Integer Programming: The Branchand Bound Method C-1Module D: Nonlinear Programming SolutionTechniques D-1Appendix ANormal and Chi-Square Tables Appendix C817Module E: Game Theory E-1Module F: Markov Analysis F-19/13/17 3:35 PM
PrefaceNew to This EditionManagement science is the application of mathematical models and computing technology to helpdecision makers solve problems. Therefore, new text revisions like this one tend to focus on thelatest technological advances used by businesses and organizations for solving problems, as wellas new features that students and instructors have indicated would be helpful to them in learningabout management science. Following is a list of the substantial new changes made for this 13thedition of the text: This revision incorporates the latest version of Excel 2016 and includes more than 175new spreadsheet screenshots.More than 60 new exhibit screenshots have been added to show the latest versions ofMicrosoft Project 2016, QM for Windows, Excel QM, TreePlan, and Crystal Ball.This edition includes 20 new end-of-chapter homework problems, so it now contains morethan 800 homework problems and 69 cases.All 800-plus Excel homework files on the Instructor's Web site have been replaced withnew Excel 2016 files.Updated “Chapter Web links” are included for every chapter. More than 550 Web links areprovided to access tutorials, summaries, and notes available on the Internet for the varioustopics in the chapters. Also included are links to YouTube videos that provide additionallearning resources.Twelve of the 48 “Management Science Application” boxes are new for this edition. All ofthese new boxes provide applications of management science techniques by companies andorganizations.Solving Teaching and Learning ChallengesThe objective of management science is to solve the decision-making problems that confront andconfound managers in both the public and private sectors by developing mathematical models ofthose problems. These models have traditionally been solved with various mathematical techniques,all of which lend themselves to specific types of problems. Thus, management science as a fieldof study has always been inherently mathematical in nature, and as a result sometimes complexand rigorous. My main goal through 13 editions of this book has always been to make these mathematical topics seem less complex and thus more palatable to undergraduate business students. Toachieve this goal I try to provide simple, straightforward explanations of often difficult mathematical topics. I try to use lots of examples that demonstrate in detail the fundamental mathematicalsteps of the modeling and solution techniques. Although in the past three decades the emphasis inmanagement science has shifted away from strictly mathematical to mostly computer solutions,my objective has not changed. I have provided clear, concise explanations of the techniques used inmanagement science to model problems and provided many examples of how to solve these modelson the computer while still including some of the fundamental mathematics of the techniques.xiiiA01 TAYL0660 13 SE FM.indd 139/13/17 3:35 PM
xivPrefaceThe stuff of management science can seem abstract, and students sometimes have trouble perceiving the usefulness of quantitative courses in general. I remember that when I was a student, I couldnot foresee how I would use such mathematical topics (in addition to a lot of the other things I learnedin college) in any job after graduation. Part of the problem is that the examples used in books oftendo not seem realistic. Unfortunately, examples must be made simple to facilitate the learning pr
Bernard W. Taylor III 13th Edition Management Science Introduction to Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
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