DEDICATION - Yakın Doğu Üniversitesi I Neu.edu.tr

iiiDEDICATIONThis thesis is dedicated in memory of my valued and precious siblings Fatimah AbdulMajeed Muhammad Alhasaniy, and Abdul Kabeer Abdul Majid Muhammad Alhasaniywho passed away in 2018 during this program. Their sisterly and brotherly encourageand cherish will always be remembered. I pray for their gentle soul to continue to rest inperfect peace.I also dedicated this work in memory of the wonderful and respected Father of mineShareef Abdul Majeed Muhammad Alhasaniy may his gentle soul rest in peace andtranquillity in the heaven, and his fatherly unique upbringing will always be remembered.

ivACKNOWLEDGMENTFirstly, my sincere and warm gratitude to my supervisor Assoc. Prof. Dr. NurKöprülü forthe incessant support and guide of my thesis study and recited research, for hermotivation, patient, and enormous knowledge. Her vigorous effort in guiding this pepperthrough her occupied time she always has a time for me, as offer was always openwhenever I had a question or entered into a difficulty spot about this dissertation orwriting, she constantly allowed this research to be my own work; but directed me in theright direction whenever she thought I needed it. My incredible and unique appreciativegoes to Assoc. Prof. Dr. SaitAksit for his treasurable leg up towards the achievement ofthis work. My special acknowledges to Near Eat University faculty of Economy andadministrative science department of international relations for the knowledge theyshared with me during my years of study, and allowing me to achieve this thesis.I would also like to thank all my friends who gave me the needed help, I am gratefulappreciative to their very valuable assist that I got from them.I also have to mention my thanks to my mother and monitor in my study life Dr. MairoAhmad Amshi for her unbelievable care, she is always there for me, so her valuablehelp in this work will never be overlook.I must express my special thanks to my Godfather DaoudBarhoum for providing meconstant financial support, and continuous encouragement throughout my years ofstudy and through the writing of this thesis.I am expressing my superior thanks and heartfelt feeling in a special way to my all myfamily, especially my guarantor Prof. Ibrahim Maqari, and humble brother Shareef AliAbdul Majeed Muhammad Alhasaniy, and kind and sweet sister Rahman Abdul MajeedMuhammad Alhasaniy for their encouragements, support, and prayer.I must reveal my extreme appreciation and gratefulness to my parents, my MotherMaryam Mohammad Ahmad my strength my hero for her perfect upbringing, motivation,incredible support, and her reliable prayer for my achievement I wish her long life andgood health. Indeed, I thank all of them for providing me chance and unfailing effort all

vthrough my study. This achievement would not have been possible without them. Thankyou all.Finally, my very precise and reflective gratitude to my spiritual and physical fatherShareef Ibrahim SalehAlhusainy for his responsible prayers and endless inspirationsduring my school life, which contribute to the success of my study life and stay strong inall situation. I asked my Almighty Allah to give him long life, and good health.Above all praise and glory is due to dear Allah the lord of the world, the most Graciousand the most Merciful who spare my life and has blessed to reach here.Hind Muhammad Abdul Majid

viABSTRACTTHE IMPACT OF ARAB UPRISINGS ON DEMOCRATIZATIONMOVEMEMT IN MAGHREB: THE CASES OF MOROCCO AND TUNISIAThree decades after the beginning of the ‗third wave‘ of democratization, more than 30countries in southern Europe, Latin America, Eastern Europe, some part of Africa, andsome Asian countries have swiftly experienced ‗transition to democracy‘. The Arabcountries, however, were relatively bypassed by this process and rather launchedmeasures towards political liberalization at the expense of democratic models.With the onset of the Arab uprisings by the ending of 2010 and the emergence ofpopular demonstrations that incited revolution across the Arab states; the literature ondemocratization in Middle East (Mashreq) and North Africa (Magreb) has begun toimprove recently. One of the crucial aspects of the Arab Spring or Uprisings is theoverthrown of the long-lasting rulers like Ben Ali of Tunisia and Mubarek of Egypt aswell as the questioning of the authoritarian regimes by the masses. On the one hand,the public protests have engulfed some Arab states; but on the other some of themhave found the ways to overcome the internal unrest and contain the opposition. In thisregard, this thesis aims to analyze the two cases in the post-Arab uprisings era; Tunisiaand Morocco where republican regimes – like Tunisia – have engaged in a transition todemocracy through toppling of the long-lasting ruler; Morocco –a monarchial rule– hassustained and consolidated its regime through different methods of regime‘s survival.Keywords: Arab uprisings, democracy, Maghreb region, authoritarianism, monarchism,Tunisia, Morocco

viiÖZARAP AYAKLANMALARININ MAḠREP’TEKİ DEMOKRATIKLEṢMEHAREKETLERİNE ETKILERİ TUNUS VE FAS çişsüreçleriyaşanmıştır. Arapdünyasıise, buminvalde, sözkonususüreçlerdendoğrudangeçmeseler adır.AnahtarKelimeler: Arapayaklanmaları, demokrasi, Mağrebbölgesi, otoriteryanizm,monaşi, Tunus Fas

viiiTABLE OF CONTENTSACCEPTANCE/ iiABSTRACT.vÖZ.viCONTENTS.viiINTRODUCTION 1AIM OF THE RESEARCH 3STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM .4THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK .6RESEARCH METHOD AND INSTANCE SELECTION 11PLAN OF THE RESEARCH .12CHAPTER IARAB SPRING AND DEMOCRATIZATION .141.1The process of democratization in Arab world prior to the ArabUprisings country by country study .141.2Historical outlook to the Arab uprisings .261.3Thepossiblecausesoftherevolutionsof2011 331.3.1 Economic discrepancy . . .34

ix1.3.2 Politicallibertyandeconomicinequalities 341.3.3Absenceofdignity 351.4 The earlier revolutionary movements vs. the Arab Springs 351.5 The struggle for democracy after the Arab Spring and the featuresofthetransitionprocessintheArabworld .38CHAPTER IITUNISIAN UPRISING .422.1Tunisian upheaval and its characteristic .462.2Actors and players that prepared the Tunisian upheaval 472.2.1 Rule of social media and educated youth . .472.2.2 Role of the civil society .482.2.3 Role of parents/women .502.2.4 Roleofthemilitary . .512.2.5 Role of Islamist movement (Ennahdha) 522.3Tunisian political panorama before Arab uprising 532.4Thesocial-economystructurebeforeArabuprisings 552.5Oppositions under Ben Ali regime .582.6Non-governmental organization during Ben Ali’s rule .60

x2.7ThemilitaryunderBenAliregime . .602.8The structure of social classes before 2011 612.9Democratic transition in Tunisia: an assessment .62CHAPTERIIITHREE: MOROCOO’S 20TH FEBRURY MOVEMENT.673.1Morocco’s 20thFebruary movement characteristics and itsdemands.693.2The respond of the monarchy to the movement . 703.320THFebruarymovement:actorsandtheirchoices .713.4Social media and 20th February movement .733.5Political landscape before the movement. . .743.6Socio-economy situation before the movement movement .843.9Themilitarypriortothemovement .853.10 Structureofthesocialclassesbeforethemovement .863.11 Theprocessestoday . .88ofdemocratization

xiCONCLUSION 92REFERENCES .100PLAGIARISM REPORT .111ETHICSAPPROVAL .112COMMITTEE

1INTRODUCTIONWhen the ‗third wave of democratization‘ has begun in many countries in theworld; the prospects for the fourth wave were expected to happen in the Arabworld (Rina&Tanja 2014). Yet, after thirty years of what the Arab Middle East isdeprived of the third wave of democratization (Lust 2011), and the myth ofauthoritarianism is still one of the key aspects shaping the academic literatureregarding regional politics. However, the political liberalization has becomeapparent in the region in the last quarter of the twenty century, following the 1973Arab-Israeli war, in which some researchers considered it as the third wave ofpolitical liberalization in the Arab world (Abushouk 2016).The reason behind this phenomenon is; there is declaration of seriousconstitutional and political reforms in many countries in the region that planned toreinforce popular participation in political landscape. Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco,Egypt are considered among the list of countries that have shifted towardsdemocratic opening by the late 1980s.While Egypt started its reformation in1973, and precisely in 1976; it basically regarded it as a return to multipartypolitical life.Egypt‘s dedication to change was renewed in the 1980s after the assassinationof President Anwar Al-Sadat due to peace-making with Israel. Another examplecan be given from Morocco; when in early 1970s there has been a change topolitical liberalization – when King Hassan II reconciled with the politicalopposition party shortly following barely shirking the King demise. In 1991,various methods of political liberalization were witnessed and political openingswere progressively arisen in many Arab countries such as Algeria, Jordan,Tunisia and Yemen. The political party systems were strengthened andparliaments were convened in the 1980s (Lust 12011).

2This political transformation happened also in the Gulf countries by the end of theGulf War in 1991. Majlis Ash-Shura which means consultation Council, theconsultation Council was elected in Oman in 1991, and the legislative electionstook place in Kuwait in October 1992. Another case was the establishment of aShura Council in Saudi Arabia as well, and Bahrain also promised forreformation. The Shura council is a house of representative that headed by aSpeaker, is the parliamentary body that counsel the monarch on matters that areimportant to government.All these measures have showed that there was an ongoing political reformprocess in the region since the following of the third wave; but there was noadequate improvement that can create a ‗real‘ political transformation. Instead,these reforms and attempts towards democratization have restored the power ofthe authoritarian rulers in the region (Abushouk 2016). However, by the arrival ofthe 2011 popular protests, the emblematic which known as ‗Arab DemocraticSpring‘ or ‗Arab upheaval‘ or ‗Arab Uprisings‘ or ‗Arab Awakening‘ or ‗Arabrevelation‘ has been a great surprise for the entire world as well as theacademics writing in this particular field of study (Peace &Cavatorta, 2012). Theevolution of public riots that have engulfed most of the Arab countries havebrought optimism and hope for building democratization in Arab states after along period of authoritarianism (Kausch, 2015).The revolutions or reforms that have been brought by the Arab Springs, raticenduranceorauthoritarian persistence in the Arab territories (Asseburg, 2015 & Fishman,2015). Thus, the Arab upheavals have led to democratic transitions as in thecase of Tunisia – which is regarded as the most successful case – and also it ledto the removal of long-lasting rulers in Egypt, Libya, and Yemen. Whereas theupheavals caused the death of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya by an externalintervention (through NATO) and casted the country into an extended civil war;