Commodities Outlook For November 2019 - BMO Economics

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Commodities Outlook Our key commodities forecastsNovember 27, 2019Commodities Outlook for November 2019A Publication of BMO Capital Markets Economic Research Douglas Porter, CFA, Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group.

Commodities Outlook Commodities Outlook for November 2019.November 27, 2019 Page 2 of 5

Commodities Outlook Commodities Outlook for November 2019.November 27, 2019 Page 3 of 5

Commodities Outlook Commodities Outlook for November 2019Technical NoteThe BMO Capital Markets Commodity Price Index is afixed-weight, export-based index that encompasses theprice movement of 16 commodities key to Canadianexports. Weights are each commodity’s average shareof the total value of exports of the 16 commoditiesduring the period 2012-16. Similarly, weights of subindex components reflect the relative importance ofcommodities within their respective product group.The all-commodities index and sub-indices consist ofthe following:.Source: BMO EconomicsUnless otherwise specified, all indices reported in thispublication correspond to prices in U.S. dollars.November 27, 2019 Page 4 of 5

Commodities Outlook Commodities Outlook for November 2019General Disclosures"BMO Capital Markets" is a trade name used by the BMO Investment Banking Group, which includes the wholesale arm of Bank of Montreal and its subsidiaries BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., BMO Capital Markets Limitedin the U.K., Bank of Montreal Europe Plc in Ireland and BMO Capital Markets Corp. in the U.S. BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., BMO Capital Markets Limited, Bank of Montreal Europe Plc and BMO Capital Markets Corp areaffiliates. This document is issued and distributed in Hong Kong by Bank of Montreal (“BMO”). BMO is an authorized institution under the Banking Ordinance (Chapter 155 of the Laws of Hong Kong) and a registeredinstitution with the Securities and Futures Commission (CE No. AAK809) under the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong). BMO does not represent that this document may be lawfullydistributed, or that any financial products may be lawfully offered or dealt with, in compliance with any regulatory requirements in other jurisdictions, or pursuant to an exemption available thereunder. This documentis directed only at entities or persons in jurisdictions or countries where access to and use of the information is not contrary to local laws or regulations. Their contents have not been reviewed by any regulatoryauthority. Bank of Montreal or its subsidiaries (“BMO Financial Group”) has lending arrangements with, or provide other remunerated services to, many issuers covered by BMO Capital Markets. The opinions, estimatesand projections contained in this report are those of BMO Capital Markets as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. BMO Capital Markets endeavours to ensure that the contents have beencompiled or derived from sources that we believe are reliable and contain information and opinions that are accurate and complete. However, BMO Capital Markets makes no representation or warranty, expressor implied, in respect thereof, takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions contained herein and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of, or reliance on, this report or its contents.Information may be available to BMO Capital Markets or its affiliates that is not reflected in this report. The information in this report is not intended to be used as the primary basis of investment decisions, andbecause of individual client objectives, should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor. 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The reader should assume that BMO Capital Markets or its affiliates may have a conflict of interest and should not rely solely on this report in evaluating whether or not to buy orsell securities of issuers discussed herein.Dissemination of Economic ResearchOur publications are disseminated via email and may also be available via our web site https://economics.bmo.com. Please contact your BMO Financial Group Representative for more information.Additional MattersThis report is directed only at entities or persons in jurisdictions or countries where access to and use of the information is not contrary to local laws or regulations. Its contents have not been reviewed by anyregulatory authority. BMO Capital Markets does not represent that this report may be lawfully distributed or that any financial products may be lawfully offered or dealt with, in compliance with regulatoryrequirements in other jurisdictions, or pursuant to an exemption available thereunder.To Australian residents: BMO Capital Markets Limited is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporations Act and is regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authorityunder UK laws, which differ from Australian laws. This document is only intended for wholesale clients (as defined in the Corporations Act 2001) and Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients (as defined in AnnexII to MiFID II).To Canadian Residents: BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. furnishes this report to Canadian residents and accepts responsibility for the contents herein subject to the terms set out above. Any Canadian person wishing to effecttransactions in any of the securities included in this report should do so through BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.To E.U. Residents: In an E.U. Member State this document is issued and distributed by Bank of Montreal Europe plc which is authorised and regulated in Ireland and operates in the E.U. on a passported basis. Thisdocument is only intended for Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients, as defined in Annex II to “Markets in Financial Instruments Directive” 2014/65/EU (“MiFID II”).Singapore: This disclaimer applies to research reports distributed by the Private Banking unit of Bank of Montreal, Singapore Branch ("BMO SG"), an exempt financial adviser under the Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 110)of Singapore ("FAA") only. This research report is prepared by BMO Capital Markets and distributed by BMO SG pursuant to an arrangement under regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations of Singapore. Thisresearch report is distributed by BMO SG solely to persons who qualify as accredited investors as defined in the FAA only, and is not intended for and may not be circulated to the general public. This report and anyinformation contained in this report shall not be disclosed to any other person. If you are not an accredited investor, please disregard this report. BMO SG does not accept legal responsibility for the contents of thereport. Recipients should contact BMO SG at 65-6535 2323 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.To U.S. Residents: BMO Capital Markets Corp. furnishes this report to U.S. residents and accepts responsibility for the contents herein, except to the extent that it refers to securities of Bank of Montreal.To U.K. Residents: In the UK this document is published by BMO Capital Markets Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The contents hereof are intended solely for the use of, andmay only be issued or passed on to, (I) persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion)Order 2005 (the "Order") or (II) high net worth entities falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order (all such persons together referred to as "relevant persons"). 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BMO serves Canadian retailclients through BMO Bank of Montreal and BMO Nesbitt Burns. In the United States, personal and commercial banking clients are served by BMO Harris Bank N.A., Member FDIC. Investment and corporate bankingservices are provided in Canada and the US through BMO Capital Markets. BMO Capital Markets is a trade name used by BMO Financial Group for the wholesale banking businesses of Bank of Montreal, BMO Harris BankN.A, BMO Ireland Plc, and Bank of Montreal (China) Co. Ltd. and the institutional broker dealer businesses of BMO Capital Markets Corp. (Member SIPC), BMO Nesbitt Burns Securities Limited (Member SIPC) in the U.S.,BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. (Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund) in Canada, Europe and Asia, BMO Capital Markets Limited in Europe, Asia and Australia and BMO Advisors Private Limited in India. “Nesbitt Burns” isa registered trademark of BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., used under license. “BMO Capital Markets” is a trademark of Bank of Montreal, used under license. "BMO (M-Bar roundel symbol)" is a registered trademark of Bank ofMontreal, used under license. Registered trademark of Bank of Montreal in the United States, Canada and elsewhere. Trademark Bank of Montreal in the United States and Canada. COPYRIGHT 2019 BMO CAPITAL MARKETS CORP.A member of BMO Financial GroupNovember 27, 2019 Page 5 of 5

Source: BMO Economics Unless otherwise specified, all indices reported in this publication correspond to prices in U.S. dollars. Commodities Outlook Commodities Outlook for November 2019

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