Air Force Global Horizons - National Academies

Headquarters U.S. Air ForceAir Force Global HorizonsDr. Mica EndsleyUSAF Chief Scientist2 April *onisunlimited.PublicReleaseCaseNo2013- ‐0609I n t e g rDistribu*oni t y A-.ApprovedS eforrpublicv irelease;c edistribu*on- Eisxunlimited.cellence1

The Air Force is Critically Dependent onScience & Technology �owStealth/LOLong- isionstrikeGasturbineengineHigh- efuelingHypersonicsHigh- g- ‐rangeradarBlendedwing- ‐body5th- a*ons2

Global HorizonsStudy MethodologySTRATEGYREQUIREMENTS AND PLANSGlobal Threats andOpportunitiesCOCOM and MAJCOMRequirementsCOREGLOBALFUNCTION SECTORCFMPs,STIPLsGlobal HorizonsUnited States Air ForceGlobal S&T Vision2013-2027AF/ST TR 13-011 August nRFI,EXPERTSUMMITSGLOBALPRIVATESECTORSGlobal Vigilance, Reach and Power dependent uponcontested GlobalandGlobalizedIndustrial e;distribu*onisunlimited.3

Global Horizons1999-2025 GlobalPopulaMon(%urban,avgage,%middleclass)USOff- esMalwareSignatures- on(Energy,Minerals)GlobalR&D(%foreign) 2500160035K57.9oF 641B,66%1999 1.4T,60%Ho F, 1% 0.3750Shocks Malware(Health,Env,Econ,Soc,Pol)PopulaMon )60%,sr5yU,3%858B(- ‐5%9.2B(70%U,41yrs,65%)Off- ‐shoring n)GlobalR&D(%foreig ClimateChange ChineseCSPhDsUSCSPhDs esitlletaSnigFore o .75 F,70%umidity 2.5%Humidity 1.25oF, 5%Hhina US 2T,65%,C 4.3T,70%ICSize8- l- release;distribu*onisunlimited.20504

Global R&D (2011)Size of circle is relative amount of Annual dforpublicrelease;distribu*onisunlimited.5

Global obal Forces Demographics Climate Resources (Natural, Talent,Treasure, Time) Globalization/Proliferation ConflictGlobal Sectors Manufacturing andMaterials Transport and Logistics Energy and Utilities Health and Pharma Communications and IT Financial Services Education and TrainingSPACEISRdnaC2AIRCYBERCyberspace: threatenedby malicious insiders,supply chain attacks, andadvanced persistentthreats to deceive,degrade, disrupt, destroyCommand and Control (C2)& Intelligence Surveillanceand Reconnaissance (ISR)targeted as a center of gravitythreatening integrated andresilient global operationsAir: Anti-Access,Area Denial (A2/AD)Global Vigilance, Reach and Power dependent uponcontested Global Domains and Globalized Industrial ibu*onisunlimited.6

MilitaryExpenditure( B)Air Challenges and tlook(2012)RestofworldUSThemeNear(FY13- naheadofnear- elfprotect;speed- ‐of- a*ons(F*)Human/machineteaming(F*)ProcessesSystem- ‐of- estructures(F*)Plug- ‐and- - ‐purpose,mul*- ign(L)RangeMissilesLongRangeMissilesSelf- ertures,payload,guidance(L)Real- ycles(F*)On- *vestructureandac*veflowcontrol(F*)N plica*onAdvancedAircraiAdapMveArchitecture

Air Domain Highlights!Key Challenge will be Contested Environment (A2/AD)!!Future adversaries will have 5th Aircraft, UAVs & systems to undermine ourability to operate with impunity!!!!Anti-GPSComms Attacks (Voice/Datalink)Attacks on C2 (Cyber)Anti-UAV, IADS, etc Drives our focus to new capabilities to regain our critical edge!!!Assured CommsPrecision Navigation & Timing (PNT) – Cold AtomLong range precision strike! Hypersonics! Directed energy Weapons! Precise targeting, disrupt/destroy electronics, sensing, blind/destroysensors! Precision effects, fast response, low collateral damage, deepmagazine, low costs! High power microwave – non-lethal effects to disperse crowds anddisrupt istribu*onisunlimited.8

Cold-Atom Inertial Navigation SystemsFor GPS-Denied erFlighthalf- ‐wayaroundworld20,000m1000m1- ‐3m20m1m1- ‐3mGPSBallis*cmissileflightColdAtomINS500m1- ‐3mLaser- gnitudebeJerperformancethanlaser- ‐basedINS,andaccuracycomparabletoGPSforGPS- crelease;distribu*onisunlimited.0.1m9

AFRL Game Changing TechnologiesFuel EfficiencyProviding Enhanced Range & Persistence For Combat Air Force: Adaptive Versatile EngineTechnology (ADVENT) & Adaptive EngineTechnology Development (AETD)ADVENT & AETDFor Mobility/ISR: Highly Energy Efficient TurbineEngine (HEETE) Integrated Propulsion Power and Thermal (INPPAT) Supersonic Turbine Engine for Long Range (STELR) Efficient Small Scale Propulsion (ESSP)HEETESTELRESSP Legacy Fleet: Aerodynamic efficiencies / dragreduction – microvanes/winglets/laminar *onisunlimited.10

RPAs Role in Future Operations!RPAs will be potentially calledupon to do a larger set ofmissions!!!!!ISRPrecision strikeRefuelingTransportLong-range bombing!RPAs will need to be able work as a part of mixed mannedunmanned aircraft team!Requires systems to!!!!Better support integrated operationsBetter ability to work autonomouslyBetter ability to work in conjunction with other UAVsBetter ability to work with manned icrelease;distribu*onisunlimited.11

Need Advanced Remote Cockpitsto Support RPA Pilot SA! Challenges to pilot situation awareness!!!Time lagsIntermittent/Noisy dataLimited transmission of situationally relevant information!!Poor user interfaces formany systemsLittle support for team tasks!Automation! Visual (soda straw, size/distance)! Auditory! Tactile/Kinesthetic! Olfactory MissionContext InformaMonNeeds NeededImageryMishaps involving significanthuman factors shortcomings Pioneer - 59% (55 of 93) Predator - 76% (16 of 21) Global Hawk - 25% (1 of 4)! Out-of-the-loop problems! Understandability of *onisunlimited.12

Autonomy Is An Underlying ThemeAcross Many Air Force e;distribu*onisunlimited.13

Space Highlights!!!Modern operations are highly dependent on space assets to providecomms, precision navigation and superior battlefield SA.Space will be congested, contested and competitiveNeed to be able to defend space assets to maintain our advantages, beagile to attacks and changing operational needs, and rapidly insertnew capabilities!!!!Highly distributed and disaggregated space assets!More agile, reliable, and defensible postureLow-cost, small satellites!Flexible, quick, easy, inexpensive launchImproved space situation awareness!!Tracking 10’s of thousands of objectsUnderstanding their impact on our operationsAdditive manufacturing!Long term promise for rapid response and parts in u*onisunlimited.14

Cyberspace Highlights!Mission assurance and empowerment!!!!Enhanced cyber situational awareness for air, space, and cyber commanders enabledby automated network and mission mappingEarly vulnerability detection and enemy behavior forecasting enabled by advancedcyber ranges, including high fidelity, real-time modeling and simulationDevelop offensive cyber capabilities to augment kinetic operations during wartimescenarios to affect strategic, operational and tactical missionsAgility and Resilience!!!!!Effective mix of redundancy, diversity, and fractionation for survivabilityReduction of attack surface, critical mission segregation, and attack containmentAutonomous compromise detection and repair (self healing) and real-time responseto threatsTransition from signature based cyber sensors to behavior understanding to enhancehigh performance attack detectionActive defense requires rapid maneuver enabled by dynamic, reconfigurablearchitectures (e.g., IP hoping, multilevel ;distribu*onisunlimited.15

Cyberspace Highlights!Optimized human-machine systems!!!!Measurement of physiological, perceptual, and cognitive states to enable personnelselection, customized training, and (user, mission, and environment) tailoredaugmented cognition.High performance visualization and analytic tools to enhance situational awareness,accelerate threat discovery, and empower task performance.Autonomy appropriately distributed between operators and machines, enabled byincreased transparency of autonomy and increased human “on the loop” orsupervisory control.Software and hardware foundations of trust!!!!Operator trust in systems (e.g., sensors, communications, navigation, C2) enabled bytrusted foundries, anti-tamper technologies, and supply chain assurance, as well aseffective mixes of government, commercial off the shelf, and open source softwareFormal verification and validation of complex, large scale interdependent systemsAdvanced vulnerability analysis, automated reverse engineering, real-time forensicstoolsHigh speed encryption, quantum communication, and quantum encryption forconfidentiality and tribu*onisunlimited.16

C2ISR Highlights!!Data transformed into higher levels of SA!!Integrated networked operations (connect 4th gen and 5th gen aircraft),sensors, command centers across air,space, cyber, sea, ground!!!!!Swimming in sensors, drowning in dataIntegrate data and provide rapid “at a glance understanding of information”using cognitive engineering toolsSecure, resilient, agile, and high capacity air-space-and-surface network toenable joint and multinational global C2 and ISR.Fully integrate weapon systems and PCPAD across air, space, andcyberspace to achieve synchronized effectsProvide processing to provide the right information to each user based ongoals/decision needsCognitive modeling to provide better funneling of information under limitedbandwidthsEffective human/automation teams!Develop flexible autonomy and all-source fusion technologies forenhanced analysis and planning capabilities for C2 and *onisunlimited.17

Future C2 & ftware &CyberspaceEffectiveHuman &AutomationTeamsData TransformedInto Higher LevelsOf Situation distribu*onisunlimited.18

Mission SupportRecommendations!!Experiment with new cross-domain Digital Design Tools!!Identify pilot programs to integrate System of System concept trades & digital design toolsVerify claims the new tools reduce development time by at least 25% and save programcostsReinvigorate a technology demonstration prototype program!!!Reallocate resources to increase the number of technology demonstrationsExplore feasibility and utility of creating small, independent rapid prototype teamscomprised of Product Centers, Labs, Users, Academia, and IndustryLeverage external technical talent through Open Challenges and produce noveltechnologies and solutions at a fraction of the time and cost to conventional tribu*onisunlimited.19

System Design, Material, &Manufacturing Highlights!!!Open system architectures!!!!!Threats change, technology changesNeed to be able to rapidly modernizeMore efficient systems!!!Design for maintainabilityDesign for operability (human-system integration)Energy efficiencySeamless thread from design to manufacturing to maintainability!!!!!Plug-n-play, modular, standardized componentsStandardized interfacesCritical for technological agilityRapid prototyping test environmentsSignificant build up of modeling and simulation toolsDigital thread! connectivity of test data/models to provide integrated information on a systemDigital twin! life time model of system to make maintenance & logistics customizedAdditive ;distribu*onisunlimited.20

Agile Manufacturing forRapid & Affordable FieldingAffordableCapability NewSystems/sub- aster@LessCostModel- *onisunlimited.AutomatedAssembly:30%lessKme21

Air Force Global Horizons! Sets Air Force Science and Technology Vision s/GlobalHorizons.pdfCOREFUNCTIONGLOBALSECTORGlobal HorizonsAirTransportationUnited States Air Force GlobalS&T Vision2013-2027SpaceMatl & ManfCyberComm/IT/FinanceC2&ISREnergySupport TechPharma & HealthEnabling S&TEducation &TrainAF/ST TR 13-011 June *onisunlimited.22

Global Horizons Study Methodology Cyber Air Space COCOM and MAJCOM Requirements STRATEGY REQUIREMENTS AND PLANS Global Horizons United States Air Force Global S&T Vision 2013-2027 AF/ST TR 13-01 1 August 2013 Independent Senior Expert Review Support C2ISR CFMPs,’STIPLs’ Enabling RFI,’EXPERT’SUMMITS’