Two Floods In Fort Collins, Colorado: Learning From A .
Two Floods in Fort Collins, Colorado:Learning from a Natural DisasterJohn F. Weaver,* Eve Gruntfest,*, and Glenn M. Levy#ABSTRACTA flash flood in Fort Collins, Colorado, on 28 July 1997 resulted in 5 deaths, 62 injuries, and more than 250 millionin property damage. Following the 1997 flood, a great many changes were made in the city’s preparedness infrastructure. On 30 April 1999, a combination of heavy rain and melting snow caused a second, less serious flood event. Thisarticle reports on the changes implemented following the first flood and their effectiveness during the second.1. IntroductionA devastating flash flood in Fort Collins, Colorado,on 28 July 1997 resulted in 5 deaths, 62 injuries requiring hospitalization, and more than 250 millionin property damage (Weaver et al. 1998; Petersen et al.1999; Weaver 1999). Rainfall totals were so large thatin some places across the region they approached500-yr return frequencies. Significant flooding occurred in about half the city, with the most seriousevents taking place in and around a normally tranquilstream known as Spring Creek and in many neighborhoods in central and southern Fort Collins.Following the 1997 flood, a great many changeswere made in the city’s preparedness infrastructure. On30 April 1999, the culmination of two days of heavystratiform rain falling onto thousands of hectares ofmelting snow caused volume flooding along thePoudre River in northern Fort Collins. Though thisriver was not a problem during the 1997 flash flood,*Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, ColoradoState University, Fort Collins, Colorado. Current affiliation: Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Colorado, Colorado Springs, Colorado.#Fort Collins Office of Emergency Management, Fort Collins,Colorado.Corresponding author address: Dr. John F. Weaver, NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO80523.In final form 21 April 2000. 2000 American Meteorological SocietyBulletin of the American Meteorological Societythe Poudre incident gave the response community theopportunity to test its new system. Only about half theplanned changes were in place at the time, but resultsfrom this first experience exceeded the expectationsof the emergency management staffs of both the Cityof Fort Collins and Larimer County. This article reports on the changes implemented and their effectiveness during the 1999 flood.2. Preparedness and mitigation effortsFollowing the 28 July 1997 flash flood, emergencyplanners from the City of Fort Collins and LarimerCounty worked in partnership with citizen-volunteersand staff from the Federal Emergency ManagementAdministration (FEMA), the National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration (NOAA), Colorado StateUniversity (CSU), and the Cooperative Institute forResearch in the Atmosphere (CIRA) to develop anexhaustive listing of places where the city’s emergencyresponse system either fully or partially failed. Oncethese weak points were identified, the next task wasto design innovative, realistic solutions to eliminate,or at least mitigate, their impact. The problems identified fell naturally into one of two categories: 1) lackof awareness and/or recognition of the unfolding disaster, and 2) problems in communication. Some ofthe proposed solutions are listed below. Parentheticalnotations identify those items that were in place at thetime of the second incident.2359
Awareness and/or recognition Better interaction with National Weather Serviceforecasters. The City of Fort Collins Office ofEmergency Management has improved its working relationship with the National Weather Service(NWS), including making a conscientious effort tointeract regularly with the NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM) for the region. (Thisimproved interaction was in place by 30 April1999.) Less human-dependent severe weather notification. The city has installed an NWS EmergencyManager’s Weather Information Network (EMWIN)that receives weather products (including watches,warnings, and advisories) automatically. Softwareplug-ins allow the system to send messages viae-mail, or to a printer, and can trigger a number ofelectronic pagers based on “keyword” cues. (Inplace by 30 April 1999.) Improved monitoring of rainfall and runoff. Theneed for several new automated precipitation andstream flow gauges was identified, especiallywithin flood-prone areas. Information from thisnetwork is transmitted electronically to the FortCollins Stormwater Utility Office and the cityEmergency Manager (EM), giving a real-time viewof rainfall and stream levels. (Most new gaugeswere in place by 30 April 1999.) Better feedback from the city to the NWS. FortCollins has installed a prototype system called theLocal Area Data Acquisition and Disseminationsystem that allows Fort Collins to automaticallytransmit stream flow and precipitation data backto the NWS. (Though this system had not beeninstalled by 30 April, the most critical observationswere transmitted by telephone to NWS forecasters.) Locally generated Stormwater notifications duringflood events. Fort Collins Stormwater Utility isimplementing a new program called “WatchDog.”The software monitors precipitation and streamflow measurements electronically. Thresholds areset, upon which automatic actions are then taken.For example, an excessive stream flow along a local river or creek might trigger automatic notification at the police department and/or the Office ofEmergency Management, alerting them that a recreational area or a bike path needs to be closed andthat discharge levels within the city are reachingdangerous levels. (This system is not in place asof this writing.)2360 Assessing the ramifications of heavy rain in near–real time. The Stormwater Utility office, togetherwith the city’s Geographic Information Systems(IGS) staff, are developing a real-time flood inundation mapping and notification system that integrates a newly acquired, high-resolution digitalterrain model (0.6-m vertical resolution) with avariety of other inputs including weather forecasts,stream flow data, rain rates, and hydrological expertise. The information will be used to initializea computer-based runoff model1 that will providenear–real time flood forecast information to the cityEM as an event unfolds. (This database was not inplace on 30 April 1999 but is nearly complete asof this writing.)Improved access to environmental informationduring severe weather events. As proposed, thisconcept requires a special staff to be on hand in theEmergency Operations Center (EOC) during emergencies, and ideally includes 1) a “tactical meteorologist” (now manned by a volunteer from theCSU Department of Atmospheric Science orCIRA), 2) a GIS technician (city staff), and3) a Stormwater representative (city staff). Each ofthese positions is at the same physical location inthe EOC and is equipped with at least one computer, a dedicated phone line, and a large-screenprojector. The goal is to provide city officials withthe most current environmental information possible during natural disasters. During floodingevents, for example, weather data from satellite andradar are displayed in real time, water-depth information is updated in real time with stream and precipitation gauge data, and digital photographs fromtrouble spots around the city are projected foranalysis and discussion. (This entire system wasin place by 30 April 1999; see section 3 below.)Communications Direct communications with citizens who may be“in harm’s way.” A “reverse-911” dialing systemthat allows the EOC to send a prerecorded messageto about 200 homes per minute over the telephoneis now in place. A specific threat area is selectedelectronically from a map at the dispatch console,allowing the dispatcher to 1) quickly warn residents in imminent danger, 2) direct the residents1Several components are being integrated for this application. Fora brief listing see the appendix.Vol. 81, No. 10, October 2000
to public sources of information, and 3) help control call volume by specifying when and when notto call 911. (This system was not in place on30 April 1999 but would not have been neededgiven the outcome of the event.)Informing the general population at risk. A new,low-power AM radio station (broadcasting at530 kHz) was set up in November of 1999. It is designed to help keep the public informed duringdisasters. The station is advertised locally at regular intervals and mentioned as an informationsource on the reverse-911 message. The station isequipped with an emergency power system, so thatit can continue transmitting in the event of powerloss. (Not in place on 30 April, but see media discussion below.)Educating/supporting E-911 dispatchers. Naturaldisaster information cards were designed that covera variety of natural disasters. The cards are similarto those used by 911 dispatchers for emergencymedical directions. Designed locally, they havebeen reviewed and edited nationally and includeinput from NOAA, FEMA, and the American RedCross. These cards are designed to allow dispatchers to quickly sort out the serious incidents fromthe trivial and obtain information vital to rescueunits. The cards can be found online at www.ci.fortcollins.co.us/C SAFETY/oem/overview ndic.htm.3. The 30 April 1999 eventPrior to 29 April 1999, discharge rates for thePoudre River were running close to normal for thattime of the year, with values of between 100 and200 cubic feet per second (cfs)2. However, a series ofunusual weather events changed the situation in a veryshort period of time. Beginning 21 April, there was a2-week period of moderate rainfall along the FrontRange of the Rocky Mountains, and of heavy, wetsnows in the nearby foothills to the west (ColoradoClimate Center 1999). Mountain/foothills snowfallbecame heavy on 22 April, and by 26 April new snow,more than a meter deep, had accumulated across mostof the contributing area within the Poudre Riverwatershed.2Discharge rates in the United States are typically given in cfs.For conversion purposes 1 cubic foot 28 liters 0.028 cubicmeters per second.Bulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyOn Thursday, 29 April, a second system—one thatwas warmer than the first—began to bring moderatelyheavy rainfall along the entire Front Range includingthe foothills where the wet snows from the days before had already begun to melt. Stratiform rain fallingat a rate of 0.4–0.7 cm h 1 seems modest compared tosummer storms that can produce 10 times those rates,but thousands of hectares of sloping terrain were being affected by the steady rain and it was falling ontoa very deep, very wet snow. The result was “volumeflooding,” an unusual occurrence in Colorado (Colorado Climate Center 1999). Discharge rates along thePoudre River started to increase rapidly early in theday on 29 April (Fig. 1). Part of the StormwaterUtility’s action plan when high discharge rates are firstnoted is to begin inspecting the local rivers, creeks, andditches to verify those higher values locally, and tosearch for blockages in culverts and drains. These inspections gave first indications of a serious potentialfor flooding. In fact, flow rates were increasing so fastthat the Stormwater Utility flood plain manager contacted the city’s EM on the evening of 29 April to discuss the situation and formulate a tentative action plan.The proactive procedures put in place following the1997 flood had given response officials the opportunity to identify a developing problem at its very inception. It should be noted that the EMWIN successfullyprovided a planned redundancy at this point. At1758 mountain standard time (MST), the NWS issueda flood watch for Thursday night and all day Friday.The full text of this watch arrived at the Office ofEmergency Management, triggering the EM’s pagerat 1810 MST. This message would have alerted officials even if the stream gauges had malfunctioned, orfailed entirely. Furthermore, the EMWIN system forwarded continuing updates throughout the night, andFIG.1. Chart showing discharge rates at the mouth of the Poudrecanyon, approximately 8 miles northwest of Fort Collins. Thechart gives discharge rates in cubic feet per second (cfs) for theperiod 24 Apr–4 May 1999. Increments are at 12-h intervals beginning at midnight (MST) on 24 Apr.2361
this information was reviewed at 0600 MST the following morning.By the morning of 30 April, discharge rates alongthe Poudre River just upstream from Fort Collins hadincreased to nearly 4000 cfs—20 times greater thanjust 24 hours earlier. In fact, this flow rate is just2000 cfs short of what is considered flood stage incertain parts of the city. Furthermore, an early morning flood watch and watch statement called for rain,possibly heavy at times, to continue throughout theday. Finally, at about 0830 MST, the city EM learnedthat the Larimer County emergency office had becomeflooded and had lost its telephone system. Becausethere was the possibility of a large population areabeing affected by dangerous river flooding, with critical systems already starting to be affected, the decision was made to initiate joint city–county emergencyoperations.The new police services building (within whichwill be housed a brand new EOC) had not been constructed yet, so a conference room at the Fort CollinsStormwater Utility building was utilized as the operations center. The room was chosen because it was largeand equipped with multiple telephone outlets and computer stations. The center was fully functioning by1100 MST, with a total of 19 people from several agencies present. In addition to city, county, and universityemergency management staff, there were representatives from the police, the Stormwater Utility, and thePoudre Fire Authority (the local fire department). Amedia representative was also designated. By noon, themeteorologist was projecting animated loops of western U.S. satellite imagery, and local radar output, ontoa large projection screen at the front of the room. TheGIS technician also had detailed city/county maps displayed, onto which flooding reports and dischargerates were plotted as they were received.As discharge rates along the river began to increase,city staffers were sent to photograph troublesome areas along local rivers and creeks. In most cases, theselocations were selected by Stormwater engineers andthe EM; then police officers in the vicinity providedpreliminary assessment. Within the hour, digital photos of what was actually occurring around the city wereavailable (Fig. 2), and problem areas were plotted onthe GIS maps of the city. Furthermore, through thisreal-time assessment process, the media representativecould provide a constant flow of new information,which was what reporters needed to keep the publicinformed. For this event, local radio stations werebriefed at regular intervals. In the future, with the2362AM radio station up and operating, information forcommercial stations and the general public will bemade available at 30-min intervals by the emergencymanager from the EOC.Staff briefings were held at noon, 1600, 2000, and2200 MST. The environmental team presentationsformed the focal point for these discussions. In addition to the projected computer output, a whiteboardwas set up at the center of the room summarizing pertinent environmental data. There were several columnsof frequently updated numbers. For example, one column listed 3-hourly river discharge-rate forecasts forthe upcoming 24-h period, a second had actual discharge numbers (entered as they were received), a thirdcolumn had 3-hourly rapid update cycle model precipitation forecasts, a fourth actual precipitation amountsfrom local gauges, and so forth.As in all weather-related emergencies, there wereseveral unexpected occurrences. One of these was thatthe rainfall turned out to be persistent enough to causelocal flooding in some of the drainages around the citythat were not associated with the Poudre River. Duringthe previous week, the Fort Collins area had receivednearly 9 cm of liquid equivalent precipitation. It hadbeen so cold that the rain changed to snow and backseveral times over a 4-day period. With the cool temperatures and cloudy skies, not much evaporation hadoccurred. Plus, the frost line was still several centimeters deep, rendering the soil generally impervious topercolation. To add to the saturation problems, FortCollins received an additional 4.4 cm of rain onFIG. 2. In addition to the serious flooding that occurred alongthe Poudre River, many other areas around the city experiencedsignificant flooding. This photograph (taken by digital camera)shows a flooded Spring Creek bike trail beneath the RiversideAvenue bridge on the late afternoon of 30 Apr 1999. For otherphotos from this event refer to http://www.ci.fort-collins.co.us/C SAFETY/oem/flood99.htm.Vol. 81, No. 10, October 2000
29 April. Thus, the heavier rains on30 April (a 24-h total of 6.1 cm atthe CSU weather station) almostimmediately turned to generalrunoff.Midafternoon found floodingbeginning at various low points allacross the city. Once again, theproactive response by EOC staffhelped identify these areas earlyand allowed for important mitigation responses. For example, several homes were protected bysandbags, because the city knewwhere to look. These homes suffered less damage on 30 April thanthey had in several previous incidents in which the flooding hadFIG. 3. GOES-West visible wavelength image from 12:00 noon (MST) on 30 Apr 1999been much less significant. Several showing large comma-shaped system over the western United States. The plus sign inflooded roads were closed before north central Colorado marks the location of Fort Collins.automobile drivers could take questionable risks. In the 1997 flood,hundreds of people drove their vehicles into moder- paid off. The local meteorologist called the lead foreate to very deep water. Many of those vehicles were caster in Denver several times between 1700 andeither totally lost or suffered hundreds of dollars in 1900 MST trying to develop a realistic expectation asdamage to engines, upholstery, or electrical systems. to what effect the additional rainfall plus runoff wouldA total of 4.7 million in automobile insurance claims have both before and during the confluence of the damwere processed. The city was criticized for not block- breach water with the Poudre River. The forecastersing roads earlier. This time no such damage occurred. and hydrologist in Denver, working with EOC staff,As the afternoon progressed, the weather and arrived at the conclusion that—while the synoptic sysflooding situation seemed to be getting a little worse tem did seem to be stalled—temperatures in the footthan expected. Slightly more rain fell in the city than hills would soon be below freezing, a factor that wouldwas forecast for the periods 0800–1100 MST and help mitigate the snowmelt problem. With this in1100–1400 MST, though Poudre River discharge rates mind, the EOC team decided that another couple ofseemed to be increasing approximately as forecast. By hours of “wait and see” might be appropriate before1500 MST discharge rates were nearing 5500 cfs. The ordering any evacuations. This proved to be an excelconcern by officials in the EOC was that the additional lent decision for a couple of reasons. First of all, atrainfall, plus the rapid snowmelt, would soon increase 1910 MST it was learned (through the NWS) that thethose discharges to values even higher than originally dam that had failed was not situated on the north forkpredicted. The rain had been expected to begin de- of the Poudre River as had been earlier reported.creasing around 1700 MST, but the satellite loops at Second, even though computer models indicated thatthat time showed that the large weather system (Fig. 3) the rains would continue throughout the night, thehad stalled—it was not moving eastward as the ear- large low pressure system began to
Two Floods in Fort Collins, Colorado: Learning from a Natural Disaster John F. Weaver,* Eve Gruntfest,*, and Glenn M. Levy# *Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado. Current affiliation: Department of Geography and Environmen-
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