Research Briefing 6: The Long-term NEET Population

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Research Briefing 6:The long-termNEET populationSeptember 2019

2Looking at the long-termImpetus transforms the lives ofyoung people from disadvantagedbackgrounds by ensuring they get theright support to succeed in school, inwork and in life. We find, fund andbuild the most promising charitiesworking with these young people,providing core funding and workingshoulder-to-shoulder with theirleaders to help them become strongerorganisations. In partnership with otherfunders we help our charities expandand we work to influence policy anddecision makers so that young peopleget the support they need.Looking at the long-termAuthor: Ben GadsbyData processing and outputs:Dr Matthew Bursnall, Dr HéctorEspinoza, Jamie Moore, Dr StefanSpeckesser (all NIESR and CVER)The statistics shown in this report are based on aresearch collaboration between NIESR and Impetusas part of the CVER programme over a period of twelvemonths, which ended in August 2019. The aim of theproject was to create better measures on labourmarket outcomes of young people at regionaland local level and to discuss the work across theinterested research and practitioner communities.Impetus, NIESR and CVER continue to disseminateoutputs from this research to elicit comments andfurther debate, but the views in all publicationsare subjective and solely those of the author(s).This applies specifically in dissemination wherepartial representation of the effectiveness ofparticular employment programme interventionsand/or selective case studies is contextualised to thestatistics obtained from the joint research project. Suchviews do not represent the position of CVER or NIESRor organisations involved in creating the statistics.@ImpetusPEF#YouthJobsGap3ContentsList of tables and figures Foreword Executive Summary Introduction 1: Headline findings 2: The impact of disadvantage 3: The role of qualifications 4: Combining disadvantage and qualification 5: Three parts of a NEET strategy Methodology reference notes 34610121622263242List of tables and figuresTable 1 The overwhelming majority of NEET young people are long-term NEETTable 2 NEET young people from disadvantaged backgrounds are more likely to be NEETfor the longer term than their better-off peersTable 3 Over a quarter of long-term NEET young people are from disadvantagedbackgroundsTable 4 Disadvantaged young people are a disproportionate share of long-term NEETstatistics, especially in the East Midlands and the SouthTable 5 Around one in five of all NEET young people is NEET for the long-term and from adisadvantaged backgroundTable 6 Young people with top GCSEs are much less likely to be long-term NEET than theirbetter-off peersTable 7 Over half of long-term NEET young people finished school without good GCSEsTable 8 Disadvantaged young people are 50% more likely to be NEET for the long-termthan their similarly qualified but better-off peersTable 9 One in five long-term NEET young people are doubly disadvantagedTable 10 Doubly disadvantaged young people are a disproportionate share of long-termNEET young people, especially in the SouthTable 11 There are five distinct and sizable groups of NEET young peopleChart 12 The overall national NEET population, broken down by qualifications, disadvantageand long-term NEET status, for the first time

4ForewordLooking at the long-term5ForewordAndy RatcliffeCEO, ImpetusIt’s not good for any young person tobe out of education and work as theyenter their early adulthood. But notall experiences of being ‘NEET’ (not ineducation, employment or training)are equally bad. A short spell of afew weeks or even a few months maybe stressful and uncertain but theevidence shows that its long termeffects on someone’s future careerneed not be too damaging. Being NEETfor a long time, a year or more, is muchworse however, damaging your futurejob prospects and earnings.That’s why this report is so importantbecause it shows that being NEET is ‘sticky’:most young people who become NEET aregoing to stay that way for a long time. Thisis a major problem for our society and oureconomy. First and foremost because it ismaking life tougher for hundreds ofthousands of young people and theirfamilies. But also because it is a symptomof deep social injustice – young peoplefrom disadvantaged backgrounds aredisproportionately likely to end up stuck inthe NEET trap, mainly because they tend tohave lower qualifications when they leaveschool. And we should worry about all ofthis even more as we go through a periodof profound economic uncertainty.An ambitious agenda to tackle thelong-term NEET issue would have threeparts. A stronger focus on preventingyoung people becoming NEET in thefirst place, and, as our earlier reportshave shown, this needs to go further thana focus on educational qualifications asimportant as those are. Second, greaterefforts to move people back in toemployment and education quickly,given that most young people whobecome NEET end up staying NEET fora long time there is little justification forwaiting to get them help. And third, morein-depth and specialised support for thoseyoung people who need more help,for example those facing mental healthchallenges, those with disabilities andthose with chaotic family circumstances.The good news is we’re learning whatworks. Our charity partners are showingthat we can get young people support thatmakes an impact. And we look forward toworking with government and otherpartners to take this agenda forward.“Most young people whobecome NEET end up stayingNEET for a long time – thereis little justification forwaiting to get them help."

6Executive summaryExecutivesummaryThe Youth Jobs Gap researchseries uses previously unseenLongitudinal EducationOutcomes data to present newinsights into disadvantagedyoung people’s transition fromcompulsory education intoemployment. The first threenational reports looked atNEET rates, higher education,and apprenticeshipsrespectively.Looking at the long-term7

75%8Executive summaryof young people who are NEET forthree months have been NEET for 12months. Most NEET young peopleare NEET for the long-term.We know from the first of these reports thatthere is an Employment Gap for disadvantagedyoung people – they are twice as likely to be NEETas their better off peers, and while half of this canbe explained by qualification, half cannot. Thisreport looks at what happens to these NEETyoung people, and finds the same patternsamong those who are NEET for 12 months.But this report also shines a light onthe extent to which NEET status is sticky– 75% of young people who are NEETfor three months have been NEET for12 months. Most NEET young people areNEET for the long-term. This finding hassignificant consequences, with beinglong-term NEET linked to poorer healthand employment outcomes decadeslater: a scarring effect.The impact of being NEET long-term,coupled with the fact that the majority ofyoung people who are NEET are NEET forthe long-term, suggests our response tothe issue of NEET young people shouldbe three pronged.Firstly, we need to do all we can toprevent young people becoming NEETin the first place, so that there’s no riskof them getting stuck.Looking at the long-termSecondly, we need to do more tohelp young people who are NEETto move quickly into education oremployment, to reduce the extent towhich young people become stuckNEET for the long-term.Finally, for those NEET young peoplewho are stuck for the long-term, weneed intensive, long-lasting supportto make the difference, especially forthose young people with multiple orcomplex barriers.At the end of this report, we presentexamples of what each of those threestrands could look like, from programmesrun by our charity partners: ThinkForward,Resurgo, and TwentyTwenty.There is a perception that youthunemployment isn’t a problem in 2019.This perception is wrong: disadvantagedyoung people are disproportionatelylikely to be NEET, and too many youngpeople are getting stuck NEET.There is a perception that youthunemployment isn’t a problemin 2019. This perception is wrong:disadvantaged young peopleare disproportionately likely tobe NEET, and too many youngpeople are getting stuck NEET.9

10IntroductionLooking at the long-termIntroductionThat report looked at young peoplebeing not in employment, education,or training (NEET) for three months.This report takes a similarly detailedlook at the characteristics of youngpeople who have been NEET for 12consecutive months. A third reportlooking at how young people movefrom NEET to EET will be publishedlater in the Youth Jobs Gap series.Being NEET for the long-term isincredibly damaging for youngpeople’s futures, with a significantimpact on future employment prospectsand wages5 and even health6 decadesdown the line. Combined with the factthat longer NEET status among youngpeople decreases their chances ofmoving from NEET to EET7, long-termNEET status is the perfect storm: easyto get stuck, causing lifelong damage.This damage is often referred toas “scarring”.8What is the impact of growing upin a disadvantaged family on youremployment prospects?We already know the impact oneducational attainment, an impactwhich appears early and persiststhroughout their school years. At agefive, disadvantaged young peopleeligible for free school meals are 17percentage points less likely to haveattained a good level of development.1At age 11, the group is 22 percentagepoints below the performance ofnon-disadvantaged children in Englishand maths attainment.2 And by the timethey sit their GCSEs, they are 28percentage points less likely to securepasses in those crucial subjects.3In April 2019, Impetus launched the firstYouth Jobs Gap report, Establishing theEmployment Gap.4 It found that,nationally: Disadvantaged young people aged18-24 are twice as likely to be out ofeducation and employment as theirbetter-off peers – a gap of 13percentage points. Half of this gap can be explainedby qualification, and half cannot. The group who are both lowqualified and from disadvantagedbackgrounds are doublydisadvantaged, and most likelyto be locked out of the labourmarket when aged 18-24.These long-term NEET young peopleare an under-researched group. In 2017,Impetus’ Youth Jobs Index9 delved intothe Labour Force Survey (LFS), which isused for official statistics, to understandwhat is happening to young people whobecome NEET. It found that one in four16-24-year-olds spends some timeNEET, with 800,000 spending a yearor more NEET. Based on the newlyavailable LEO data, we can nowprovide a better and more up to datefigure in this briefing, as well as a betterunderstanding of these young people.In Chapter 1, we present the headlinefindings from the data at national andregional level, without looking at theimpact of disadvantage or qualificationon how long young people spend NEET.In Chapter 2, we explore the impact ofdisadvantage (eligibility for free schoolmeals in year 11).In Chapter 3, we look instead at the roleof qualifications, and the extent to whichfive GCSEs at A*-C grades reduces theproportion of young people who arelong-term NEET.In Chapter 4, we combine thesetwo variables to look at the doubledisadvantaged group – those fromdisadvantaged backgrounds, andwithout good GCSEs.Finally, in Chapter 5, we outline athree-pronged approach to addressingthe issues around long-term NEET youngpeople, which forms a framework forthinking about how to tackle the realitieshighlighted in the first four chapters.As with previous briefings in theYouth Jobs Gap series, this briefingtakes advantage of the new LongitudinalEducation Outcomes (LEO) data. LEO isthe most complete data available, andoffers better insights than we’ve hadfrom any previous datasets. From it,we can see how things differ for youngpeople based on whether they are froma disadvantaged background, whatqualifications they have, and wherethey went to school. The approach takenis summarised on the inside back cover,and full details of the methodology usedcan be found in the accompanyingdocument, Methodology for the YouthJobs Gap. This includes a discussion ofcaveats associated with the new LEOdataset. As with government reportsbased on LEO, these are experimentalstatistics and feedback on methodologyis welcome. Contributions, engagementand comments are encouraged, viainfo@impetus.org.uk11

12Headline findingsHeadlinefindingsRelatively little is knownabout the young peoplewho spend a long time outof employment, educationor training. Official NEETstatistics are based onsurvey data which looksat whether people havebeen in work or lookingfor work at a point in time,or in the preceding fourweeks. More thoroughanalysis requiresadministrative datasources, such as the LEOdata used in this report.Looking at the long-term13

14Headline findingsLooking at the long-termTable 1: The overwhelming majority of NEET young people are long-term NEETRegionMarch 2016September 2016Percentage of youngpeople in study NEET for3 months 6 months OverlapPercentage of youngpeople in study NEET for3 months 12 months OverlapNational14%13%89%16%12%75%South West13%11%89%14%10%77%South East13%12%89%14%11%76%Yorkshire and the Humber16%14%89%17%13%76%East of England13%12%89%14%11%76%West Midlands15%13%89%16%12%76%East Midlands13%12%90%15%11%75%North East17%15%88%18%13%75%North West15%13%89%16%12%75%London16%14%88%17%12%71%As a starting point, Table 1 gives anoverview of the proportion of youngpeople become NEET for the long-term– either six or 12 months – as well as howthat relates to the proportion of youngpeople known to be NEET overalli.The NEET rates for six and 12 monthslook very similar to the three-monthNEET rates, and indeed the publishedpoint in time NEET rates. This bringsto light a startling fact – 75% of youngpeople who have been NEET for threemonths, have in fact been NEET for afull 12 months or more. Most NEETyoung people are long-term NEET.Indeed, almost 90% of young peoplewho have been NEET for three monthshave in fact been NEET for six months ormore. There are very few young peopleNEET for more than three, but less thansix, months. And there are only slightlymore young people who are NEET formore than six, but less than 12 months.These figures also imply that only 10%of young people who have been NEETfor three months will have moved intoa positive EET destination after a furtherthree months – and only around 25%will have done so after a further ninemonths. We will explore NEET to EETrates, later in the Youth Jobs Gap series.These figures implythat there were around630,000NEET young people aged 18-24 in September 2016,of whom 475,000 had been NEET for a full 12 months.The extent to which the group oflong-term NEET young people overlapswith the group of short-term NEETyoung people does not vary markedlyby region. This means that while yourchances of being NEET, either short orlong-term, does vary by region, thereisn’t a better region to be NEET in; beingNEET is sticky – if you’re NEET for threemonths, the chances are you’ll be stuckNEET, regardless of where you are inthe country. The slight exception isLondon, which does slightly betterthan other regions at avoiding12-month NEET periods.i For at least three monthsHowever, it is worth noting that previousYouth Jobs Gap research has found thatthe differences within the regions aremuch bigger and more meaningful thanthe differences between them. Thereis a much bigger difference betweenManchester and Cumbria (both partsof the North West) than between theNorth West and the North East – both ofwhich have sizable cities and more ruralareas. The role of geography is a moregranular and subtle picture than simplycomparing large regions.This long-term NEET problem is clearestwhen looking at the raw numbers. Thesefigures imply that there were around630,000 NEET young people aged 18-24in September 2016, of whom 475,000had been NEET for a full 12 months. InMarch 2016, there were 590,000 NEETyoung people, of whom 520,000 hadbeen NEET for a full six months. So, ofthat 520,000, only 45,000 (9%) movedfrom NEET to EET six months later, whilethere was a net increase of around40,000 NEET young people overall(a seasonal effect).9%Only 9% of youngpeople who were NEETfor six months movedfrom NEET to EET6 months later.15

16The impact of disadvantageThe impact ofdisadvantageThe previous chapterexposed the extent towhich the majority of NEETyoung people are NEET forthe long-term. We knowthat disadvantagedyoung people are twiceas likely to be NEET as theirbetter-off peers, and wecan now explore whetherthe same is true forlong-term NEET youngpeople (Table 2).Looking at the long-term17

18The impact of disadvantageLooking at the long-termTable 2: NEET young people from disadvantaged backgrounds are more likely to be NEETfor the longer term than their better-off e of youngpeople NEET for3 months 12 months OverlapPercentage of youngpeople NEET for3 months 12 months OverlapNational14%10%74%27%21%77%South West12%9%76%25%20%80%South East13%10%76%27%21%80%Yorkshire and the Humber14%11%75%30%24%79%North East15%11%74%33%26%79%East of England13%10%75%25%20%78%West Midlands14%10%75%27%21%78%North West14%10%74%29%22%78%East Young people from disadvantagedbackgrounds are twice as likely to belong-term NEET as their better-off peers,21% to 10%, much as they are twice as likelyto be NEET overall. This employmentgap is equivalent to 36,000 additionaldisadvantaged young people spending12 months NEET, who would not do so ifthe gap did not exist. While these figures,and the figures in the rest of this reportrelate to September 2016, this findingis not unique to that point in time.There is a subtle difference betweenthe two groups, with a slightly higherproportion (77%) of disadvantaged youngpeople who are NEET for three monthsbeing NEET for 12 months, compared totheir better-off peers (74%). Being NEET isespecially sticky for disadvantaged youngpeople, they are less likely to move fromNEET to EET than their better-off peers.Once again, the differences between theregions are not especially large, with theexception of London, where being NEETis slightly less likely to be a long-termexperience than in other regions, for bothdisadvantaged and non-disadvantagedyoung people.Disadvantaged21%Nondisadvantaged10%Young people from disadvantagedbackgrounds are twice as likelyto be long-term NEET as theirbetter-off peers; 21% to 10%.19Understanding theNEET populationAs well as looking atwhat proportion ofdisadvantaged youngpeople are long-termNEET, we can also lookat the proportion oflong-term NEET youngpeople who are fromdisadvantagedbackgrounds.As they are more likely to be long-termNEET, disadvantaged young peoplemake up a disproportionate shareof long-term NEET young people(Table 3).Table 3: Over a quarter of long-term NEET youngpeople are from disadvantaged backgroundsRegionProportion of long-term NEETyoung people fromdisadvantaged backgroundsNational26%North East33%North West33%London32%West Midlands30%Yorkshire andthe Humber29%East Midlands22%South West18%East of England17%South East17%

20The impact of disadvantageWhile a quarter of long-term NEETyoung people are from disadvantagedbackgrounds nationally, this varies fromregion to region, reflecting different levelsof disadvantage in each region. Controllingfor these differences, we can make alike-for-like comparison of the extent towhich disadvantaged young people aredisproportionately NEET (Table 4).When controlling for the context ofdiffering levels of disadvantage, asomewhat different picture emerges.The South East and South West areparticularly interesting – disadvantagedyoung people make up a very low shareof long-term NEET young people. Thisjust reflects the fact that these areregions with low levels of disadvantage.When you take that into account,disadvantaged young people areparticularly overrepresented. Londonstands out compared to other

Chart 12 The overall national NEET population, broken down by qualifications, disadvantage and long-term NEET status, for the first time Looking at the long-term Looking at the long-term 3. An ambitious agenda to tackle the long-term NEET iss

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