Cortright CRC Tolls Gridlock I205 - Aaron M. Renn

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CRCTollsWillProduceGridlockOnI- ight,Impresa,Inc.,September2013TollingI- 00vehiclesdailytoshifttotheI- CRC.Startingin2016,theCRCwillimposepeakhourtollsof 2.50ontheexistingI- ‐5bridges,plusasurchargeofanother 1.50thosewhodon’tbuytransponders.ButthenearbyI- ‐205Bridgewillremainun- rossingI- heI- 16,withtollsChangefrom2011I- ‐5124,00078,400- ‐45,600I- ‐205138,700187,500 48,800TotalRiverCrossings262,700265,900 theI- ingI- willberaisedfurther,to vehiclestodiverttoI- ‐205.CDMSmithpredictsthattrafficonI- new,widenedI- ay.ThenewI- metime,theI- trafficasthenewI- eCDMSmithanalysisshowsthattheI- 10,000carsperday,shortlyafterthenewI- ‐5bridgeopensin2022.OncetheI- umesthattrafficcongestionanddelaysontheI- ‐205bridgewillforcemoretrafficgrowthtotravelonI- enues.

- ‐205willbeatcapacity,travelersonI- eydotoday.Inaddition,fillingI- slowertravelspeedsonroutesconnectedtoI- ‐205,especiallyI- ‐84andStateRoute14.ThecongestiononI- lyamuchmoretime- rucktripsonI- ent(FEIS)claimedthatthenewI- therewouldbeonlyminordiversiontoI- thanhalfasmanyvehicleswilluseanewI- mostadecade,andtheygrosslyunder- ‐estimatedthediversioneffectsofI- er2013/2

I- onwillhavespentnearly dtollingwillleavethenewI- ‐5bridgesgrosslyunder- ‐utilized,whileoverwhelmingtheexistingI- ‐205bridges.Thedaythenewbridgeopens,I- 300),asthenewtolledI- estimatescreatedbyCDMSmithstillsignificantlyover- ‐estimatetolltrafficonI- ‐5andunderestimatetheamountofdiversiontoI- ‐205.- ‐ TheCDMSmithestimatesarebasedonun- ‐realisticforecastsoftheunderlyinggrowthofcross- iverhaveactuallydeclinedatarateof- ehiclemilesoftravelareinlong- hRate2002- ‐2012- ‐0.2%peryearCDMSmith“TollFree”2016- ‐20361.5%peryearCDMSmith“withTolls”2016- ‐20361.1to1.2%peryear- ‐ me,basedonasurveyofactualI- ‐5bridgeusers,theestimatesindevelopedso- timevaluebasedonsecondarydataaboutcounty- betweentraveltimevaluesandwagerates.- ‐ TheCDMSmithfigureslikelyover- kerstotolledfacilities.- ‐ orecastsSeptember2013/3

HowCRCTollsForceTraffictoI- ‐205 1.FlatTrafficonI- ‐5andI- ‐205Forthepastdecade,trafficontheI- ‐5andI- e- ‐CompletionTollingTollingI- ays43,000morecarswillusetheI- ‐205bridgethantoday.TrafficontheI- ftraffic.3.2016to2021:ConstructionDiversiontoI- nbothI- ‐5andI- ‐205.TrafficlevelsonI- ‐5remainwellbelowpre- 2022,thenewCRCbridgeopens,andtollsareincreasedto hicleswilldiverttotheI- ‐205bridgeasaresultofthesetollincreases.I- ‐5trafficfallsto78,200daily.5.2023to2030:I- hatI- ledI- ‐5bridge.ThewidernewI- orecastsSeptember2013/4

theI- ‐5andI- avelontheI- ‐5andI- theexistingI- ‐5bridge,theso- ‐called“pre- ‐completiontolling.”Tollswillrangeupto 2.50perpeakhourcrossing,plusasurchargeof - conbothI- ‐5andI- asedto 3.62perpeakhourcrossing(plussurchargesofupto I- ectthatI- vels(thisisshownasI- ‐205“flat- ‐lining”after2023.OnceI- willshifttothetolledI- ollrevenuesinthepost- hesenewforecastsfortrafficlevelsonatolledI- EISoverstated2030trafficlevelsontheI- hefactthatitforecasts80,000fewerI- icForecastSeptember2013/5

.Insum,theresultsoftheCDMSmithreportshow: e,non- dairport(whicharearguablyfarmoretime- mutertrafficacrossthepresentI- ‐5bridges). Withtolling,noadditionalcross- sedlyneededtoexpandcapacity,tollingtheI- structure. heproject.Long- thratesontheI- rateoftrafficacrosstheColumbiaRiverontheI- ‐5andI- ‐205bridgescombinedhasaveraged- existingnon- quires“strong,evidence- atwillbecarriedontheI- SmithTrafficForecastSeptember2013/6

AlthoughtheCDMSmithestimatesomitthecriticalNo- ‐Buildno- ontheI- esperdayfortheNo- velsonI- ‐5intheNo- ost- - uallyis.Ineffect,thetrafficlevelsascribedtotheNo- orrectedbaselineNo- gtheproposednewI- ement.Specifically,suchchangeswould: hattolldrivendiversiontoI- morevehicleswilldivertawayfromI- (I- ‐84,SR- ‐14andotherEast- ofthiscongestion,andisthereforeinvalid. delayontheI- nincreasingontheI- ‐5bridges,andthefractionofthecross- ‐rivertrucktrafficcarriedbyI- ‐5hasdecreaseddramaticallyinthepastfiveyears. erofcrashesontheI- inewouldshowfarfewercrashes. Invalidatescost- ‐benefitanalysis.TheCRChaspublishedacost- orecastSeptember2013/7

lerbenefits.Moreover,thecost- thecostbenefitanalysis. sonofbusservicetimesundertheNo- ftrafficcongestionintheNo- ‐Build.AmorerealisticNo- erspresentedintheEISarea“worst- withahigherorlowerleveloftrafficonI- implydifferentenvironmentalimpacts. ther. nanycase,representanenvironmentalworst- uslydisclosed. o- yare. recastSeptember2013/8

onI- etofCDMSmithforecastsassumelevelsofcross- dy,withouttolls,trucktrafficontheI- ney- ‐to- fromI- thenewbridgeopenedin2022wouldbe 10.78:a 3.62basetoll,plusa 1.77surchargeeachway( 3.62 1.77 5.39; 5.39*2trips picalshoppingtriptoJantzenBeachwhichaveragesabout 50inpurchases.Overthepasttwodecades,cross- dbyI- ‐205.ActivityattheJantzenBeachMall,servedbyI- avingabout ailshoppersmaybedeterredfromusingtheI- ftimeofshoppersislikelytobemuchlowerthanthe 12.28to - afficdropoffisinoff- ‐peakhours,whenthenon- 9

onontheun- themethodologicallimitationsidentifiedbyanODOT- ur- .AspartofconstructingitsmodeloftrafficoverI- crosstheI- owthintravelonI- FEIScontainsnopost- er2013/10

fficlevelsonothercompetingroutes,i.e.I- afficlevelsonI- ‐5andI- rtstheestimatedleveloftrafficundera“no- ilizationofthenewI- ‐5bridgesthanshownhere.Scenarios1- ions,anddidnotreportdatafortheI- ionsreportedfortheFebruaryforecastsinScenarios1- rFebruaryScenarios1- on;forSeptemberScenariosA- alysisofCDMSmithTrafficForecastSeptember2013/11

tSeptember2013/12

CRCTolls#Will#Produce#Gridlock#On#I5205# Analysis#ofCDM#Smith#TrafficForecast#! Joseph!Cortright,!Impresa,!Inc

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