THE ESSENTIALS OF RISK MANAGEMENT

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THE ESSENTIALS OFRISK MANAGEMENT

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THE ESSENTIALS OFRISK MANAGEMENTMICHEL CROUHYDAN GALAIROBERT MARKMcGraw-HillNew York Chicago San Francisco Lisbon LondonMadrid Mexico City Milan New DelhiSan Juan Seoul SingaporeSydney Toronto

Copyright 2006 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Manufactured in the UnitedStates of America. Except as permitted under the United States Copyright Act of 1976, no part of thispublication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database orretrieval system, without the prior written permission of the publisher.0-07-148332-2The material in this eBook also appears in the print version of this title: 0-07-142966-2.All trademarks are trademarks of their respective owners. Rather than put a trademark symbol afterevery occurrence of a trademarked name, we use names in an editorial fashion only, and to the benefitof the trademark owner, with no intention of infringement of the trademark. Where such designationsappear in this book, they have been printed with initial caps.McGraw-Hill eBooks are available at special quantity discounts to use as premiums and sales promotions, or for use in corporate training programs. For more information, please contact George Hoare,Special Sales, at george hoare@mcgraw-hill.com or (212) 904-4069.TERMS OF USEThis is a copyrighted work and The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. (“McGraw-Hill”) and its licensorsreserve all rights in and to the work. Use of this work is subject to these terms. Except as permittedunder the Copyright Act of 1976 and the right to store and retrieve one copy of the work, you may notdecompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, reproduce, modify, create derivative works based upon,transmit, distribute, disseminate, sell, publish or sublicense the work or any part of it without McGrawHill’s prior consent. You may use the work for your own noncommercial and personal use; any otheruse of the work is strictly prohibited. Your right to use the work may be terminated if you fail to comply with these terms.THE WORK IS PROVIDED “AS IS.” McGRAW-HILL AND ITS LICENSORS MAKE NO GUARANTEES OR WARRANTIES AS TO THE ACCURACY, ADEQUACY OR COMPLETENESS OFOR RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM USING THE WORK, INCLUDING ANY INFORMATION THAT CAN BE ACCESSED THROUGH THE WORK VIA HYPERLINK OR OTHERWISE,AND EXPRESSLY DISCLAIM ANY WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUTNOT LIMITED TO IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR APARTICULAR PURPOSE. McGraw-Hill and its licensors do not warrant or guarantee that the functions contained in the work will meet your requirements or that its operation will be uninterrupted orerror free. Neither McGraw-Hill nor its licensors shall be liable to you or anyone else for any inaccuracy, error or omission, regardless of cause, in the work or for any damages resulting therefrom.McGraw-Hill has no responsibility for the content of any information accessed through the work.Under no circumstances shall McGraw-Hill and/or its licensors be liable for any indirect, incidental,special, punitive, consequential or similar damages that result from the use of or inability to use thework, even if any of them has been advised of the possibility of such damages. This limitation of liability shall apply to any claim or cause whatsoever whether such claim or cause arises in contract, tortor otherwise.DOI: 10.1036/0071429662

For more information about this title, click hereC o n t e n t sForeword, by Anthony Orsatelli viiPrologue ixChapter 1Risk Management—A Helicopter View1Appendix to Chapter 1: Typology of Risk Exposures 25Chapter 2Corporate Risk Management—A Primer 37Chapter 3Banks and Their Regulators—The Research Lab for RiskManagement? 55Chapter 4Corporate Governance and Risk Management 83Chapter 5A User-Friendly Guide to the Theory of Risk and Return 109Chapter 6Interest-Rate Risk and Hedging with Derivative Instruments 125Chapter 7From Value at Risk to Stress Testing 149Chapter 8Asset-Liability Management 181v

viContentsChapter 9Credit Scoring and Retail Credit Risk Management 207Chapter 10Commercial Credit Risk and the Rating of Individual Credits 231Chapter 11New Approaches to Measuring Credit Risk 257Chapter 12New Ways to Transfer Credit Risk—And Their Implications 291Chapter 13Operational Risk 325Chapter 14Model Risk 347Chapter 15Risk Capital Attribution and Risk-AdjustedPerformance Measurement 363EpilogueTrends in Risk Management 387Index399

F O R E W O R DGrowth and profitability are exciting words for investors and stakeholders in companies all over the world. Yet they can be illusory anddestructive measures of performance in the absence of risk control and riskmanagement.At IXIS Corporate and Investment Bank, the investment banking division of Groupe Caisse d’Epargne, one of France’s leading universalbanks, we have a tradition of understanding the critical relationship between risk and reward.On the one hand, we are a long-established banking organization thatis proud of its continuity, long-lasting business relationships, and conservative sense of discipline, all of which combine to offer the considerablebusiness advantage of robust credit ratings from the leading agencies.On the other hand, over the last few years, the company has activelyrestructured and positioned itself to play a leading role in the consolidation of the banking industry and in new banking activities. Not least, ourinvestment banking division is recognized as a leading player in some ofthe world’s most innovative risk management and derivative and structuredproducts markets, such as inflation-indexed securities, securitization of residential and commercial mortgages in the United States, and collateralizeddebt obligations.In a dynamic and competitive world, companies cannot manage either strategic or tactical risks by adopting a passive stance. They need todevelop the mindset and tools to explore the many dimensions of risk associated with each activity and opportunity so that they can balance theseagainst the more obvious signs of reward.This is something we tell our investment banking clients, but it’s alsosomething we practice ourselves.Over the last few years, we’ve invested heavily in our risk management expertise by providing advanced training for our associates in sophisticated risk modeling, financial engineering, the implications of newregulations such as Basel II, improvements in corporate governance, andso on. We’ve developed proprietary risk models to better assign counterparty credit ratings, and we’ve developed a comprehensive set of stresstest scenarios to help us take into account the effect of credit and marketrisks (such as a sharp movement in credit spreads) and business risks (suchas variations in the prepayment speeds of mortgages).viiCopyright 2006 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Click here for terms of use.

viiiForewordAll this has strengthened our belief that investing in intellectual capital in the area of risk management is at least as important as investing inother areas of bank expertise.This isn’t only a matter of improving the capabilities of specialistrisk managers and risk modelers. The challenge for senior executives oflarge financial institutions is also how to make sure that the enterprise assesses risk in a cohesive way along clearly established lines of authorityand accountability, with each bank activity pursuing the interests of theenterprise as a whole.Risks must be not only measured, but efficiently communicated andmanaged right across the firm.I welcome the way in which this book brings together many of themost sophisticated approaches to risk management, and particularly theway in which it endeavors to make these new ideas accessible to a wideaudience.Anthony OrsatelliCEO of IXIS Corporate and Investment BankMember of the Executive Boardof Groupe Caisse d’Epargne

P R O L O G U EThis book draws on our collective academic and business experience tooffer a user-friendly view of financial risk management. We’ve tried tokeep the book’s language straightforward and nonmathematical so that itis accessible to a wide range of professionals, senior managers, and boardmembers in financial and nonfinancial institutions who need to know moreabout managing risk. In turn, we hope this means that the book is alsosuitable for college students, for those in general MBA programs, and forany layperson who is simply curious about the topic of modern financialrisk management.Although largely a new work, this present book draws to some extent on Risk Management, a volume that we published with McGraw-Hillin the year 2000. That earlier book offers a detailed and technical discussion of the techniques employed to manage market risk, credit risk, andoperational risk, and is aimed primarily at those who are already proficientin risk analytics to some degree.We were fortunate that Risk Management turned out to be highly popular among risk management practitioners in the financial industries andalso used extensively in specialized MBA courses on risk management.But it seemed that the time was right for a book that was accessible to awider range of readers. Over the last five years, there has been an extraordinary growth in the application of new risk management techniquesin financial and nonfinancial institutions around the world. The need for asophisticated understanding of risk management methodologies is nolonger confined to the risk management or derivative specialist. Many managers and staff whose jobs are to create, rather than simply conserve, shareholder value are now required to make sophisticated assessments of risk,or to play a critical part in the formal risk management process.Meanwhile, in the aftermath of the millennial corporate scandals andthe resulting efforts to strengthen corporate governance practices and regulations (such as the Sarbanes-Oxley Act in the United States), a broadcommunity of stakeholders such as shareholders, bondholders, employees,board members, and regulators is demanding that institutions become increasingly risk-sensitive and transparent. In turn, this means that stakeholders themselves, as well as a larger tranche of staff in each organization,must improve their understanding of approaches to financial risk management. There can’t be a meaningful dialogue about risk and risk manage-ixCopyright 2006 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Click here for terms of use.

xProloguement if only one party to the conversation understands the significance ofwhat is being said.We hope this book is a useful tool in the education of this broadercommunity of company employees and stakeholders on the essentials ofrisk management. We believe that such an educational effort is now a necessary part of achieving best-practice risk management.This book should also serve to update readers of our earlier volume,Risk Management, on the continuing evolution of best-practice risk policies, risk methodologies, and associated risk infrastructure. Readers of thatearlier volume will find that Essentials of Risk Management has filled manygaps and offers entirely new chapters on important topics such as corporate governance, economic capital attribution and performance measurement, asset-liability management, and credit scoring for retail portfolios,as well as an updated treatment of the new Basel Accord. We also try tocommunicate the rich variety of new financial products that are being usedto manage risk, such as the dramatic increase in the use of credit derivatives. We hope this treatment will allow readers without formal analyticalskills to appreciate the power of these new risk tools.Modern approaches to financial risk management are today implemented across many industries. Readers won’t be surprised, however, tofind that we draw many of our examples from the banking industry. Thebanking industry demands a sophisticated approach to financial risk management as a core skill, and it has spawned most of the new risk management techniques and markets of the last decade. In particular, ourdiscussion is substantially enriched by the new regulatory approaches originating from the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, the closest approximation the banking industry has to an international regulatory body.Although the committee’s new Accord on risk and capital in the bankingindustry, published in the summer of 2004, has drawn criticism as well aspraise, the huge amount of research and industry discussion that underpinned the committee’s efforts has yielded many insights. That researchand discussion, as well as the implementation of the Accord itself over thenext few years, will have a global impact on best-practice risk management well beyond the banking industry.The more analytically inclined reader may wish to use our earliervolume, Risk Management, to drill down into the detailed arguments andnotation that support our discussion of market, credit, and operational riskmanagement. Also, as we did not want to burden the reader of this bookwith too elaborate an academic apparatus, we would refer researchers to

Prologuexiour earlier book for a very detailed set of technical footnotes, references,attributions, and bibliography.In contrast, Chapter 1 of this present book offers a wide-ranging introductory discussion that looks at the many facets and definitions of “risk”as a concept, while also making clear the structure of this book and therelationship between the various chapters on specialized topics.Finally, we would like to thank Rob Jameson, our editor, for histremendous efforts to keep us diligent and ensure that we made progresson the book. His contributions went well beyond the call of duty. We alsothank colleagues, friends, and users of our earlier volume, RiskManagement, for their encouragement, comments, and suggestions. Weconsider this book, too, to be a living document, and we welcome yourcomments and suggestions on any items or improvements that you feelmight interest or benefit readers of future editions.Michel CrouhyDan GalaiRobert Mark

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THE ESSENTIALS OFRISK MANAGEMENT

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CHAPTER1Risk Management—AHelicopter View1The future cannot be predicted. It is uncertain, and no one has ever beensuccessful in forecasting the stock market, interest rates, or exchange ratesconsistently—or credit, operational, and systemic events with major financial implications. Yet, the financial risk that arises from uncertainty canbe managed. Indeed, much of what distinguishes modern economies fromthose of the past is the new ability to identify risk, to measure it, to appreciate its consequences, and then to take action accordingly, such astransferring or mitigating the risk.This simple sequence of activities, shown in more detail in Figure1-1, is often used to define risk management as a formal discipline. Butit’s a sequence that rarely runs smoothly in practice: sometimes simplyidentifying a risk is the critical problem, while at other times arranging anefficient economic transfer of the risk is the skill that makes one risk manager stand out from another. (In Chapter 2 we discuss the risk management process from the perspective of a corporation.)To the unwary, Figure 1-1 might suggest that risk management is acontinual process of corporate risk reduction. But we mustn’t think of themodern attempt to master risk in defensive terms alone. Risk managementis really about how firms actively select the type and level of risk that itis appropriate for them to assume. Most business decisions are about sacrificing current resources for future uncertain returns.In this sense, risk management and risk taking aren’t opposites, buttwo sides of the same coin. Together they drive all our modern economies:the capacity to make forward-looking choices about risk in relation to1. We acknowledge the coauthorship of Rob Jameson in this chapter.1Copyright 2006 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Click here for terms of use.

2Essentials of Risk ManagementFIGURE1-1The Risk Management ProcessIdentify RiskExposuresMeasure and EstimateRisk ExposuresFind Instruments andFacilities to Shiftor Trade RisksAssess Effectsof ExposuresAssess Costs andBenefits of InstrumentsForm a Risk MitigationStrategy: Avoid Transfer Mitigate KeepEvaluate Performancereward lies at the heart of the management process of all enduringly successful corporations.Yet the rise of financial risk management as a formal discipline hasbeen a bumpy affair, especially over the last 10 years. On the one hand,we’ve seen an extraordinary growth in new types of institutions that earntheir keep by taking and managing risk (e.g., hedge funds), as well as someextraordinary successes in risk management mechanisms: the lack of financial institution bankruptcies during the violent downturn in credit quality in 2001–2002 is often claimed to be the result of better credit-riskmanagement processes at banks.Risk management is also now widely acknowledged as the most creative force in the world’s financial markets. A striking recent example is

CHAPTER 1Risk Management—A Helicopter View3the development of a huge market for credit derivatives, which allows institutions to obtain insurance to protect themselves against credit default(or, alternatively, to get paid for assuming credit risk as an investment).Credit derivatives can be used to redistribute part or all of an institution’scredit-risk exposures to banks, hedge funds, or other institutional investors,and they are a specific example of a broader, beneficial trend in financialmarkets summed up by Alan Greenspan, chairman of the U.S. FederalReserve Board:The development of our paradigms for containing risk has emphasized dispersion of risk to those willing, and presumably able, to bear it. If risk isproperly dispersed, shocks to the overall economic system will be better absorbed and less likely to create cascading failures that could threaten financial stability.2On the other hand, the last 10 years have seen some extraordinaryand embarrassing failures of risk management in its broadest definition.These range from the near failure of the giant hedge fund Long-TermCapital Management (LTCM) in 1998 to the string of financial scandalsassociated with the millennial boom in the equity and technology markets(from Enron, WorldCom, Global Crossing, and Qwest in the United Statesto Parmalat in Europe).Unfortunately, risk management has not consistently been able to prevent market disruptions or to prevent business accounting scandalsresulting from breakdowns in corporate governance. In the case of theformer problem, there are serious concerns that derivative markets makeit easier to take on large amounts of risk, and that the “herd behavior”of risk managers after a crisis gets underway (e.g., selling risky assetclasses when risk measures reach a certain level) actually increases market volatility.Sophisticated financial engineering, supplied by the banking, securities, and insurance industries, also played a role in covering up the trueeconomic condition of poorly run companies during the equity markets’millennial boom and bust. Alongside rather simpler accounting mistakesand ruses, this type of financial engineering was one reason that some ofthese companies violently imploded after years of false success (ratherthan simply fading away or being taken over at an earlier point).2. Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan before the Council on Foreign Relations, Washington, D.C.,Nov. 19, 2002.

4Essentials of Risk ManagementPart of the reason for risk management’s mixed record here lies withthe double-edged nature of risk management technologies. Every financialinstrument that allows a company to transfer risk also allows other corporations to assume that risk as a counterparty in the same market—wiselyor not. Most importantly, every risk management mechanism that allowsus to change the shape of cash flows, such as deferring a negative outcome into the future, may work to the short-term benefit of one group ofstakeholders in a firm (e.g., managers) at the same time that it is destroying long-term value for another group (e.g., shareholders or pensioners).In a world that is increasingly driven by risk management concepts andtechnologies, we need to look more carefully at the increasingly fluid andcomplex nature of risk itself, and at how to determine whether any changein a corporation’s risk profile serves the interests of stakeholders. We needto make sure we are at least as literate in the language of risk as we arein the language of reward.The nature of risk forms the topic of our next section, and it will leadus to the reason we’ve tried to make this book accessible to everyone, fromshareholders, board members, and top executives to line managers, legaland back-office staff, and administrative assistants. We’ve removed fromthis book many of the complexities of mathematics that act as a barrier tounderstanding the essential principles of risk management, in the beliefthat, just as war is too important to be left to the generals, risk management has become too important to be left to the “rocket scientists” of theworld of financial derivatives.WHAT IS RISK?We’re all faced with risk in our everyday lives. And although risk is anabstract term, our natural human understanding of the trade-offs betweenrisk and reward is pretty sophisticated. For example, in our personal lives,we intuitively understand the difference between a cost that’s already beenbudgeted for (in risk parlance, a predictable or expected loss) and an unexpected cost (at its worst, a catastrophic loss of a magnitude well beyondlosses seen in the course of normal daily life).In particular, we understand that risk is not synonymous with the sizeof a cost or of a loss. After all, some of the costs we expect in daily lifeare very large indeed if we think in terms of our annual budgets: food,fixed mortgage payments, college fees, and so on. These costs are big, butthey are not a threat to our ambitions because they are reasonably predictable and are already allowed for in our plans.

CHAPTER 1Risk Management—A Helicopter View5The real risk is that these costs will suddenly rise in an entirely unexpected way, or that some other cost will appear from nowhere and stealthe money we’ve set aside for our expected outlays. The risk lies in howvariable our costs and revenues really are. In particular, we care about howlikely it is that we’ll encounter a loss big enough to upset our plans (onethat we have not defused through some piece of personal risk managementsuch as taking out a fixed-rate mortgage, setting aside savings for a rainyday, and so on).This day-to-day analogy makes it easier to understand the differencebetween the risk management concepts of expected loss (or expected costs)and unexpected loss (or unexpected cost). Understanding this difference isa task that has managed to confuse even risk-literate banking regulatorsover the last few years, but it’s the key to understanding modern risk management concepts such as economic capital attribution and risk-adjustedpricing. (However, this is not the only way to define risk, as we’ll see inChapter 5, which discusses various academic theories that shed more lighton the definition and measurement of risk.)The main difference betweeen our intuitive conception of risk and amore formal treatment of it is the use of statistics to define the extent andpotential cost of any exposure. To develop a number for unexpected loss,a bank risk manager first identifies the risk factors that seem todrive volatility in any outcome (Box 1-1) and then uses statistical analysis to calculate the probabilities of various outcomes for the position orportfolio under consideration. This probability distribution can be usedin various ways; for example, the risk manager might pinpoint the area ofthe distribution (i.e., the extent of loss) that the institution would find worrying, given the probability of this loss occurring (e.g., is it a 1 in 10 or a1 in 10,000 chance?).The distribution can also be related to the institution’s stated “riskappetite” for its various activities. For example, as we discuss in Chapter4, the senior risk committee at the bank might have set boundaries on theinstitution’s future risk that it is willing to take by specifying the maximum loss it is willing to tolerate at a given level of confidence, such as,“We are willing to countenance a 1 percent chance of a 50 million lossfrom our trading desks on any given day.”The formality of this language and the use of statistical concepts canmake risk management sound pretty technical. But the risk manager issimply doing what we all do when we ask ourselves in our personal lives,“How bad, within reason, might this problem get?”What does our distinction between expected loss and unexpected loss

6Essentials of Risk ManagementBOX1-1RISK FACTORS AND THE MODELING OF RISKIn order to measure risk, the risk analyst first seeks to identify the key factors that seem likely to cause volatility in the returns from the position orportfolio under consideration. For example, in the case of an equity investment, the risk factor will be the volatility of the stock price (categorized inthe appendix to this chapter as a market risk), which can be estimated invarious ways.In this case, we identified a single risk factor. But the number of riskfactors that are considered in a risk analysis—and included in any risk modeling—varies considerably depending on both the problem and the sophistication of the approach. For example, in the recent past, bank risk analystsmight have analyzed the risk of an interest-rate position in termsof the effect of a single risk factor—e.g., the yield to maturity of government bonds, assuming that the yields for all maturities are perfectlycorrelated. But this one-factor model approach ignored the risk that thedynamic of the term structure of interest rates is driven by more factors,e.g., the forward rates. Nowadays, leading banks analyze their interestrate exposures using at least two or three factors, as we describe inChapter 6.Further, the risk manager must also measure the influence of the riskfactors on each other, the statistical measure of which is the “covariance.”Disentangling the effects of multiple risk factors and quantifying the influence of each is a fairly complicated undertaking, especially when covariance alters over time (i.e., is stochastic, in the modeler’s terminology). Thereis often a distinct difference in the behavior and relationship of risk factorsduring normal business conditions and during stressful conditions such asfinancial crises.Under ordinary market conditions, the behavior of risk factors is relatively less difficult to predict because it does not change significantly in theshort and medium term: future behavior can be extrapolated, to some extent, from past performance. However, during stressful conditions, the behavior of risk factors becomes far more unpredictable, and past behaviormay offer little help in predicting future behavior. It’s at this point that statistically measurable risk threatens to turn into the kind of unmeasurableuncertainty that we discuss in Box 1-2.

CHAPTER 1Risk Management—A Helicopter View7mean in terms of running a financial business, such as a specific bankingbusiness line? Well, the expected credit loss for a credit card portfolio, forexample, refers to how much the bank expects to lose, on average, as aresult of fraud and defaults by card holders over a period of time, say oneyear. In the case of large and well-diversified portfolios (i.e., most consumer credit portfolios), expected loss accounts for almost all the lossesthat are incurred. Because it is, by definition, predictable, expected loss isgenerally viewed as one of the costs of doing business, and ideally it ispriced into the products and services offered to the customer. For creditcards, the expected loss is recovered by charging the businesses a certaincommission (2 to 4 percent) and by charging a spread to the customer onany borrowed money, over and above the bank’s funding cost (i.e., the ratethe bank pays to raise funds in the money markets and elsewhere). Thebank recovers mundane operating costs, like the salaries it pays tellers, inmuch the same way.The level of loss associated with a large standard credit card portfolio is predictable because the portfolio is made up of numerous bite-sizedexposures and the fortunes of customers are not closely tied to one another—on the whole, you are not much more likely to lose your job today because your neighbor lost hers last week (though the fortunes of smalllocal banks, as well as their card portfolios, are somewhat driven by socioeconomic characteristics, as we discuss in Chapter 9.)A corporate loan portfolio, by contrast, is much “lumpier” (e.g., thereare more big loans). Furthermore, if we look at industry data on commercial loan losses over a period of decades, it’s apparent that in someyears losses spike upward to unexpected loss levels, driven by risk factorsthat suddenly begin to act together. For example, the default rate for a bankthat lends too heavily to the technology sector will be driven not just bythe health of individual borrowers, but by the business cycle of the technology sector as a whole. When the technology sector shines, making loanswill look risk-free for an extended period; when the economic rain comes,it will soak any banker that has allowed lending to become that little bittoo concentrated among similar or interrelated borrowers. So, correlationrisk—the tendency for things to go wrong together—is a major factor whenevaluating the risk of this kind of portfolio. The tendency for things to gowrong together isn’t confined to the clustering of defaults among a portfolio of commerc

Credit Scoring and Retail Credit Risk Management 207 Chapter 10 Commercial Credit Risk and the Rating of Individual Credits 231 Chapter 11 New Approaches to Measuring Credit Risk 257 Chapter 12 New Ways to Transfer Credit Risk—And Their Implications 291 Chapter 13 Operational Risk

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