Thermal Propulsion Systems Roadmap 2020 Presentation Sub-Head
*As a general rulealways use ‘Title Case’for presentation titles,sub-headings, sectionbreaks and slide titles.February 2021 Version 1.0Presentation TitlePresentation Sub-HeadNarrative ReportTitle set at 130ptArial RegularAPC GreyThermal Propulsion SystemsRoadmap 2020Date set at 20ptArial RegularAPC GreySub-Head set at 70ptArial RegularAPC Grey 60%Aug 2020 v1
Overview: Thermal Propulsion SystemsAlthough the internal combustion engine has been the bedrock ofautomotive propulsion since the 1900s, a focussed effort on improvedthermal efficiency, systems optimisation, hybridisation and new net-zerocarbon fuels is required to meet stricter emissions regulations. Engine efficiency, commonly measured as Brake Thermal Efficiency, hascontinued to increase since the last TPS roadmap was published in 2017.For light duty vehicles, this is expected to reach 48% by 2025 and 53%by 2035. Engine developments for heavy duty vehicles could see 60%reached by 2035. Future thermal propulsion systems will include some level of hybridisation tomanage stricter GhG emission standards and deliver higher overall systemefficiencies. A radical shift away from fossil fuels is already underway withnet-zero fuels favoured. Innovations in light duty vehicles include: the use of advanced coatings andmaterials to reduce heat loss; more efficient combustion through, for example,lean burn and water injection; together with integrated hybrid engines. In contrast, for heavy duty vehicles, with their unique duty cycles andpowertrain architectures, innovations are likely from waste-heat recovery,low-temperature combustion and in the longer term, adaptations to usealternative fuels. Key benefits of ICEs are the high degree of equipment recyclability, low LCAimpact and a mature repurposing & remanufacturing industry backbone.Engines are already manufactured at carbon-neutral plants, worldwide. Significant research is underway to find sustainable net-zero alternativesto fossil fuels that take advantage of well-known production systems,established materials supply and low-cost manufacturing of ICE. These fuelsare a new feature of the 2020 TPS roadmap and represent the key to meetinggreen-house gas emission and air quality targets in the long term. Our survey of experts showed that cost parity between ICE and BEVis expected by 2035, driving a radical shift from existing fossil fuels toalternatives, in particular bio-fuels and hydrogen. Several of these fuelsincluding bio-fuels and e-fuels can partly or fully replace the existing fuelmix in current engines. Modification of the engine opens up the possibilityof using a wider range of synthetic fuels. Industry experts are very confidentthat new ICE architectures with sustainable net-zero are achievable near-term. Recycling regulations and consideration of whole life impacts areencouraging a wide range of approaches across supply chains from designfor disassembly and remanufacturing to recycling of components and moreefficient production. It is important that life-cycle principles are embedded innew net-zero fuel combustion systems.A full glossary is provided at the end of this report
Foreword and AcknowledgementsNeville JacksonOn behalf of theUK Automotive CouncilThe APC would like to acknowledgethe extensive support provided byindustry and academia in developmentand publishing this roadmap.We are grateful to the AutomotiveCouncil for entrusting us with theproduct and technology roadmapsrefresh and their continued support.This work has received significant supportfrom BEIS (Department for Business,Energy and Industrial Strategy).I am delighted to share the 2020 automotive propulsion technology roadmapsdeveloped closely in collaboration with industry by the Advanced PropulsionCentre. These roadmaps define critical future targets and the most promisingpathways to achieve a decarbonised and more sustainable future vehicle parc.They are an essential tool in developing a focused R&D agenda, particularlyrelevant for collaborative innovation.The roadmaps build on the foundations of original UK Automotive Councilroadmaps and developed further by the APC in 2017. These have been refreshedto reflect the urgency in transitioning to the UK target of net-zero emissions by2050. The rate of change in propulsion technologies has accelerated rapidly inrecent years; electrified vehicle adoption is on the rise, battery prices have comedown faster than previously forecast, alternative zero-emission technologies likefuel cells are maturing at significant pace and clean fuels for combustion, includinghydrogen, are emerging to replace existing fossil fuels.However, there are significant challenges to overcome as the rate of change mustincrease further, requiring more intensive R&D and commercialisation that willdeliver affordable products to market that are even more attractive for consumers.The 2020 technology roadmaps have been developed by industry expert surveysand panels, delivering a consensed view of future automotive propulsion targets,technologies and timescales.Our aim with this report is to support the automotive sector with insights and acommon technology focus to accelerate and deliver world-class solutions. Theroadmaps are an important source of information in building collaborative R&Dopportunities to address future mobility challenges, goods transport and offhighway vehicle research and development.Prof Chris BraceUniversity of Bath, APC SpokeThermal propulsion systems will remain at the forefront of technology to 2040and beyond. We know that engines will still be important for the foreseeablefuture, but we are much less sure what they will be burning in that time period.Progress towards net-zero means that fuels must be decarbonised rapidly.Reduced carbon fuels for today’s fleet are a critical part of this work. Furtherprogress will be possible with radically new sustainable fuels, for which we willdevelop new efficient engine and propulsion system technologies.I am hugely optimistic that engineering and science can help us to bring thebenefits of clean, sustainable mobility to ever more of the world’s population.Prof Rob MorganUniversity of Brighton, APC SpokeThis roadmap, unlike the 2017 version is aligned to meeting the net-zero target.The critical importance of a rapid transition to sustainable fuels came throughstrongly during its development. There will be a range of fuel solutionswith different impacts on the future requirements of the powertrain and atremendous opportunity to cut carbon emissions quickly and sustainablyespecially in the ‘hard to electrify sectors’ such as long-haul freight.The roadmap was developed with inputs from a broad range of industrial andacademic experts and given the challenges and complexity of the problem,a remarkable consensus was achieved. I personally feel privileged to haveparticipated in this project and hope the roadmaps are helpful in guiding thesector in delivering a clean, sustainable future.
Insights from the 2020 Industry Experts Online SurveyA radical shift in fuels used in combustion engines is underway as cost parity between BEVs and ICE appears likely by 2035.A spread of industry specialists respondedto the online technology survey carried out inSeptember 2020.When will cost parity be achievedbetween BEVs & ICE?The fuels most likely to dominate the light dutycombustion engine market by 2040 are bio-fuelsand hydrogen.When asked when BEV and ICE would achievecost parity, almost 80% of responders thoughtthis would be possible before 2035.1310129118107Count of responsesCount of responsesWhich fuels are expected to dominate thecombustion engine market by 2040?6Insights from the 2020 Industry Experts Online Survey5498765Market Insights: A radical shift in fuels used in combustion engines is underway as cost parity10 10between BEVs and ICE appears likely by 2035.32110A spread of industry specialistsWhat fuels are expected toresponded to the online technology surveydominate the combustionInsightsfrom the2020:2020 Industry ExpertsengineOnlinemarketSurveycarriedout in Septemberby 252029920302034810When will cost parity beachieved betweenBEVs & ICE?203520398142040204420452049Not likelybefore 2050UniversityA spreadProfessor of industry specialistsWhat fuels are expected to813%respondedto the online technology surveydominate the combustionSeniorEngineering Consultancy/ Service Provider (22%) engine market by 2040?carried2020:7Manager out in SeptemberDirector/CEOCount of responsesCount of responses7Market Insights: A radical shift in fuels used in combustion engines is underway 7as costparityOther13between BEVsand ICE appears likely by 2035.96%61251156When will cost parity beachieved betweenBEVs & ICE?(17%)56%10410Count of Responses13%OtherCount of xpertsExpertsOnlineOnlineSurveySurvey4Count of responses04321313121211111010998877665544Count of responsesTechnology survey 20302035-20352040-20402045-2045Not likelyNot likely2029 20292034 20342039 20392044 20442049 2049before2050 2050before13%Director/CEOdominate56%the lightThe fuels Tiermost1likelytodutysupplier(11%)combustion enginemarket by 2040 are bio-fuelsResearch/Analyst12%and hydrogen. NB: Bio-fuelscannot be supplied inhigh volumes due to bio-waste supply constraints.43395Count of t of Responsesnsights:Insights:A ncombustioncombustionenginesenginesis 35.TechnologyOtherDeveloper rofessor13% Technology OrganisationResearcheadd edominatethethecombustioncombustionNB: Bio-fuels cannot currently be supplied in tryExpertsExpertsOnlineOnlineSurveySurveyoutt in raints.When asked when BEV and ICE would achievecost parity, almost 80% of responders thought thiswould beThepossiblebeforelikely2035.This couldbe dutyfuels mostto NB:dominatethe lightenginemarketby 2040carsare bio-fuelssoonercombustionfor high volumesmallpassengerand hydrogen. NB: Bio-fuels cannot be supplied inhigh volumes due to bio-waste supply lsSyntheticOtherOtherE-FuelsSynthetic3 Bio- 8Bio-Hydrogenfuels -2029 2030-2034 2035-2039 2040-2044 2045-2049 Not likelyby eachievedachievedbetweenbetweenNB: This could be sooner for high volumeBEVsBEVs&&ICE?ICE?small passenger cars.1414arketket Insights:Insights:A ncombustioncombustionenginesenginesis ikelylikelybyby2035.9 2035.96%6%UniversityUniversityWhen asked when BEV and ICE would achievecost parity, almost 80% of responders thought thiswould be possible before 2035. NB: This could besooner for high volume small passenger alistsProfessorProfessorofof10Bio-Fuels HydrogenE-FuelsSyntheticFuels1Other02025-2029 2030-2034 2035-2039 2040-2044 2045-2049 Not likelyby 12WhenWhenwillwillcostcostparityparityb
Roadmap 2020RoadmapThermal2020Propulsion SystemsThermal Propulsion SystemsTechnology Indicators and DriversTechnology Indicators and DriversTechnology indicators for light duty and heavy duty applicationsTechnologythatforindustryis likelyachievein aapplicationsmass-market competitive environment.Technologyindicatorsindicatorslight dutyandtoheavydutyTechnology indicators that industry is likely to achieve in a mass-market competitive environment.Brake Thermal Efficiency (BTE)Brake Thermal Efficiency 035Light Duty42%48%53%Heavy Duty47%55%60%Light Duty42%48%53%Heavy Duty47%55%60%Defined driverPredicted driverDefined driverPredicted driverNotes: Notes:BTE refers to Peak Brake Thermal Efficiency. BTEa commonfor engineefficiency. The values listed are best-in-class figures.BTE isrefersto PeakindicatorBrake ThermalEfficiency. Althoughsingle pointpeak BTEvaluesefficiency.are shown,theseare listednot accurateindicatorsfigures.of real world vehicleBTE is a commonindicatorfor engineThevaluesare best-in-classefficiency which will vary across propulsion technologies and product applications. Although single point peak BTE values are shown, these are not accurate indicators of real world vehicleefficiency which will vary across propulsion technologies and product applications.Green House Gas and Air Quality Regulation DriversGreen House Gas and Air Quality Regulation DriversLight DutyLight DutyHeavy DutyHeavy DutyCO2e Emission95 g/km (NEDC)-15% (WLTP)PollutionandCO2e EmissionResourcePollution andResourceCO₂e Emission95 g/km(NEDC)Euro6d / EPATier 3-15%(WLTP)Euro7 / EPATier 3Euro 6d / EPA Tier 3CO2: VECTO UptakeEuro 7 / EPA Tier 3CO2: -15%CO2: -30%CO₂eEmissionPollutionandResourcePollution andResourceCO2: VECTOEuroVI / EPAUptake2015NRE Stage VEuro VI / EPA 2015NRE Stage VEuroCOVII2:/ -15%EPA 2015NRE Stage V Euro VII / EPA 2015NRE Stage V CO2: -30%Euro VII / EPA2015 MY27NRE Stage V Euro VII / EPA 2015 MY27NRE Stage V Towards net-zero CO₂e and LCA compliancePC -37.5% and Van -31% (WLTP)₂e andPC -37.5% and Van -31% (WLTP)net-zeroCOlandHolistic environmental impact legislation Towards(VOC, resourceuse,use)LCAandcomplianceLCA complianceHolistic environmental impact legislation (VOC, resource use, land use) and LCA complianceTowards net-zero CO2e and LCA complianceTowardsCO2e mentalimpact(VOC, resource use, land use) and LCA complianceHolistic environmental impact legislation(VOC, resource use, land use) and LCA compliance2020202520302035204020452050 2020202520302035204020452050 11
Roadmap 2020RoadmapThermal2020PropulsionSystemsThermal Propulsion SystemsTechnology Indicators and DriversTechnology Indicators and DriversTechnology indicators for light duty and heavy duty applicationsTechnology indicatorsthatforindustryis likelyachievein aapplicationsmass-market competitive environment.Technologyindicatorslight dutyandtoheavydutyTechnology indicatorsIn 2020, these replace targets in the roadmaps, providing a direction of travel and anapproach to measuring best-in-class performance for this technology.Technology indicators that industry is likely to achieve in a mass-market competitive environment.Brake Thermal Efficiency (BTE)Brake Thermal Efficiency 035Light Duty42%48%53%Heavy Duty47%55%60%Light Duty42%48%53%Heavy Duty47%55%60%Defined driverPredicted driverDefined driverPredicted driverNotes: Notes:BTE refers to Peak Brake Thermal Efficiency.Brake Thermal Efficiency (BTE) BTEa commonfor engineefficiency. The values listed are best-in-classfigures.for light duty and heavy duty vehicles are provided separately,The indicatorsBTE isrefersto PeakindicatorBrake ThermalEfficiency. Althoughsingle pointpeak BTEvaluesefficiency.are shown,theseare listednot accurateindicatorsof realworldandvehicleas their dutycyclestechnology selection differ.BTE is a commonindicatorfor engineThevaluesare best-in-classfigures.efficiency which will vary across propulsion technologies and product applications. Although single point peak BTE values are shown, these are not accurate indicators of real world vehicleefficiency which will vary across propulsion technologies and product applications.Green House Gas and Air Quality Regulation DriversGreen House Gas and Air Quality Regulation DriversLight DutyLight DutyHeavy DutyHeavy DutyCO2e Emission95 g/km (NEDC)-15% (WLTP)PollutionandCO2e Emission₂e andPC -37.5% and Van -31% (WLTP)net-zeroCOlandHolistic environmental impact legislation Towards(VOC, resourceuse,use)LCAandcomplianceLCA complianceResourcePollution andResourceCO₂e Emission95 g/km(NEDC)Euro6d / EPATier 3-15%(WLTP)Euro7 / EPATier 3Euro 6d / EPA Tier 3CO2: VECTO UptakeEuro 7 / EPA Tier 3CO2: -15%CO2: -30%CO₂eEmissionPollutionandResourcePollution andResourceCO2: VECTOEuroVI / EPAUptake2015NRE Stage VEuro VI / EPA 2015NRE Stage VEuroCOVII2:/ -15%EPA 2015NRE Stage V Euro VII / EPA 2015NRE Stage V CO2: -30%Euro VII / EPA2015 MY27NRE Stage V Euro VII / EPA 2015 MY27NRE Stage V Regulation DriversTowards net-zero CO₂e and LCA compliancePC -37.5% and Van -31% (WLTP)Holistic environmental impact legislation (VOC, resource use, land use) and LCA complianceTowards net-zero CO2e and LCA complianceTowardsCO2e mentalimpact(VOC, resource use, land use) and LCA complianceHolistic environmental impact legislation(VOC, resource use, land use) and LCA compliance2020202520302035204020452050 2020202520302035204020452050 Evolving CO₂ emissions, pollution and resources regulations are shown on the TPS roadmap.These strongly influence the development and implementations of combustion engine technologies.11
Roadmap 2020RoadmapThermal2020PropulsionSystemsThermal Propulsion SystemsTechnology Indicators and DriversTechnology Indicators and DriversGeneral notesAlthough higher peak BTEs are possible, e.g. by tuning the engine to a singleoptimisation point, this is impractical in achieving what we are really after –increased ‘net’ duty cycle efficiencies.Averaged drive cycle BTE values are preferred that quantify system efficiency,but were unavailable. Peak BTE provides an indicator of trajectorydevelopment and innovation.Technology indicators for light duty and heavy duty applicationsTechnology indicatorsthatforindustryis likelyachievein aapplicationsmass-market competitive environment.Technologyindicatorslight dutyandtoheavydutyThe projections have been derived from senior experts within industry viaAPC-facilitated workshops.Technology indicators that industry is likely to achieve in a mass-market competitive environment.Brake Thermal Efficiency (BTE)Brake Thermal Efficiency 035Light Duty42%48%53%Heavy Duty47%55%60%Light Duty42%48%53%Heavy Duty47%55%60%Notes: Notes:BTErefersto Peak Brake Thermal Efficiency.Lightduty BTEisacommonindicatorfor enginevalues listed enginesare best-in-classfigures.In conomyTherequirements,must makebetterBTEBrakeThermalEfficiency.Heavy dutyHeavy duty powertrain efficiency will continue to improve - significant advances areexpected through waste heat recovery and radical new engine concepts. AlthoughsinglepointpeakBTEvaluesRegardlessare shown,theseareefficientnot accurateindicatorsof realwillworld vehicleusethe availablefuelenergy.of valueshowtheengineis, thereBTEis best-in-classfigures.efficiencywill varyfractionacross propulsionproduct applications.still be whicha significantof the fueltechnologiesenergy thatandis rejectedin the exhaust and Although single point peak BTE values are shown, these are not accurate indicators of real world vehiclecoolant streams.efficiency which will vary across propulsion technologies and product applications.There are examples of production programmes for heavy goods vehicles targetinga BTE of 55% by 2026, achieving Euro VII emission standards and super ultra-lowemission vehicle (SULEV) compliance, based on water injection technology to reducethe compression work. By 2030, some engine developers are targetinga BTE of 60% Predicted driverDefined driverby adding ORC, cylind
automotive propulsion since the 1900s, a focussed effort on improved thermal efficiency, systems optimisation, hybridisation and new net-zero carbon fuels is required to meet stricter emissions regulations. Engine efficiency, commonly measured as Brake Thermal Efficiency, has continued to increase since the last TPS roadmap was published in 2017. For light duty vehicles, this is expected .
Automotive Council The Advanced Propulsion Centre Thermal Efficiency and System Efficiency Spokes, supported by an expert Steering Group, helped to shape the roadmap before and after the workshop. Pre-event Common Assumptions Briefing Breakout Sessions Collective Briefing Process Post-Event Debrief Pre-Event Email 1 day workshop with 45 attendees Post-Event Email Thermal Propulsion Systems .
generation of magnetic propulsion systems B-19 B5. Three successive generations of magnetic propulsion systems B-19 B5.1. How the "omnibus trend" should culminate in three conventions of the Magnocraft's operation B-20 B6. Second generation of magnetic propulsion systems, operating in the telekinetic (teleportative) convention B-21 B6.1.
propulsion that we find in high-speed aircraft, and rockets and spacecraft. But the high-speed propulsion systems employ nozzles to accelerate the fluid streams and these systems are known as jet propulsion systems. The nozzle accelerates and ejects the fluid stream due to th
B-2 B2. The basics of propulsion B-3 B2.1. The working medium B-4 B2.2. The primary requirement for building a controllable propulsion system B-5 B3. Application of the Periodic Principle to propulsion systems B-6 B4. The first generation of the magnetic propulsion systems
The aircraft propulsion system can be constructed from a number of components: propulsion groups, engine groups, jet groups, charge groups, and fuel tank systems. The NDARC propulsion group is a mechanical drive t
Energies 2018, 11, 1879 3 of 14 R3 Thermal resistance of the air space between a panel and the roof surface. R4 Thermal resistance of roof material (tiles or metal sheet). R5 Thermal resistance of the air gap between the roof material and a sarking sheet. R6 Thermal resistance of a gabled roof space. R7 Thermal resistance of the insulation above the ceiling. R8 Thermal resistance of ceiling .
technology roadmap. These concepts are summarized in the APL Intelligent Systems Framework. Section 2: The Technology Roadmap The major technical elements of the roadmap are presented in this section. Based on envisioned futures formulated by experts from across APL, the technology roadmap is presented in the form of four technology vectors .
An Introduction to Description Logics Daniele Nardi Ronald J. Brachman Abstract This introduction presents the main motivations for the development of Description Logics (DL) as a formalism for representing knowledge, as well as some important basic notions underlying all systems that have been created in the DL tradition. In addition, we provide the reader with an overview of the entire book .
