Greater Cambridge Local Plan Strategic Spatial Options .

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Greater CambridgeLocal Plan StrategicSpatial OptionsAssessment:EmploymentGreater Cambridge Shared PlanningNovember 2020Prepared byGL HearnWithIceni Projects Ltd.

Greater Cambridge Local Plan Strategic Spatial Options Assessment: Employment, November 2020Greater Cambridge Shared PlanningContentsSectionPage1EXECUTIVE SUMMARY32INTRODUCTION73THE STRATEGIC OPTIONS94METHODOLOGY105COMMENTARY ON LEVELS OF GROWTH116COMMENTARY ON SPATIAL OPTIONS137CONCLUSION28GL HearnPage 2 of 29

Greater Cambridge Local Plan Strategic Spatial Options Assessment: Employment, November 2020Greater Cambridge Shared Planning1EXECUTIVE SUMMARYGreater Cambridge Employment Land and Economic DevelopmentEvidence Study1.1A final draft employment land review (ELR) titled Greater Cambridge EmploymentLand and Economic Development Evidence Study has been completed as ofSeptember 2020, although the primary modelling was completed in winter 2019. Asa result, its outcomes and recommendations do not take account of COVID19implications.1.2The ELR considers a range of issues including the local property market, economicclusters, land supply and future land needs.1.3The report identifies that Greater Cambridge has key business clusters of in lifesciences, ICT, professional services and to a lesser extent advanced manufacturing.Life sciences businesses in particular, associated with research capabilitiesembedded in Cambridge University, have seen large employment expansion andthere are a range of science parks particularly around South Cambridgeshire.Commentary on growth level options1.4In terms of future needs, the ELR considers employment and floorspace needstested in terms of: labour supply, derived from the standard method population andjobs arising; a central employment scenario; and a higher employment scenario.1.5The standard method scenario in the ELR is equivalent to the jobs (and thereforehomes) in the minimum growth scenario in the Local Plan options. Given the rate ofjobs creation in the past, the ELR does not recommend planning for the outcomesof the standard method scenario which would see job growth constrained to around60% of the long term historic rate due to a lack of labour supply. The current level offloorspace commitments in the Greater Cambridge land supply would provideenough B1a (offices), B1b (laboratories) and B1c (light industrial) employment landGL HearnPage 3 of 29

Greater Cambridge Local Plan Strategic Spatial Options Assessment: Employment, November 2020Greater Cambridge Shared Planningto meet the needs generated under the standard method, however there would be ashortfall in industrial and warehousing needs.1.6The central scenario in the ELR is equivalent to the jobs (and therefore homes) inthe medium growth scenario in the Local Plan options. Given the rate of job creationin the past, the ELR recognises this as the most likely outcome for the GreaterCambridge economy as it is comparable to the long term historic jobs growth, but inplanning positively for growth the ELR does not recommend planning for theemployment floorspace outcomes of the central scenario – without prejudice to anyhousing or jobs outcomes. The current level of employment commitments in theGreater Cambridge land supply would provide enough B1a and B1b employmentland to meet the needs generated under the central scenario if the mixed B1 supplycomponents include a sufficient amount of B1b in particular. There would be ashortfall in industrial and warehousing needs.1.7The higher scenario in the ELR is equivalent to the jobs (and therefore homes) inthe maximum growth scenario in the Local Plan options. The higher scenario placesa greater weight on fast growth in the recent past, particularly in key sectors. It isinfluenced by the average per annum rate of job creation from 2010 to 2017, whichwas considerably higher than that achieved on average per annum between 1991and 2010. It does not assume this much faster recent job growth continuesindefinitely but does assume that the long term future average is influenced by theperformance of the economy in the recent past. In planning positively for growth it isrecommended that the level of employment land associated with the higher growthbe planned for, without prejudice to any employment and housing outcomes. Thisenables a flexible supply ensuring choice for business growth and inward investment.It minimises potential restrictions on employment growth associated with land useplanning and also aligns more closely with the completions trends and the propertymarket feedback. The current level of employment commitments in the GreaterCambridge land supply are not considered to provide a sufficient amount of B1a andGL HearnPage 4 of 29

Greater Cambridge Local Plan Strategic Spatial Options Assessment: Employment, November 2020Greater Cambridge Shared Planningparticularly B1b floorspace to meet the needs generated under the higher scenario.There would also be a shortfall in industrial and warehousing needs. As noted, theabove recommendation is made without prejudice to any housing or jobs outcomes.Commentary on spatial options1.8There are different implications for each level of growth across the spatial scenarios.1.9Under the ‘minimum’ option the office and laboratory (lab) requirements are largelymet through existing supply, so growth can be achieved under almost any spatialscenario. For industrial and warehousing needs, spatial scenarios 3,4,6,7,8 are likelyto be suitable as larger areas of land will be available to meet floorspacerequirements.1.10Under the ‘medium’ option again the office and lab requirements are largely metthrough existing supply, so growth can be achieved under almost any spatialscenario. However, for offices the supply would only just exceed forecast needs.Scenarios 1 or 2 would best serve some further provision of B1a/b space meetingdemand given proximity to the city’s existing professional services clusterconcentration although any scenario (except 5) could reasonably deliver additionalfloorspace. Under this medium growth option, B1b lower density labs would alsolargely have its floorspace requirements fulfilled by current supply although furtherallocations could be considered under 3,4,6,7,8 where space is available. Forindustrial and warehousing needs, spatial scenarios 3,4,6,7,8 are likely to be suitableas larger areas of land will be available to meet floorspace requirements.1.11Under the ‘maximum’ option the office requirements are largely met through existingsupply, however for offices the supply would only just exceed forecast needs, whentaking into account some mixed B1 commitments. Scenarios 1 or 2 would best servea more substantial provision of further B1a space meeting demand, given proximityto the city’s existing professional services cluster concentration. It is possible thatother scenarios (except 5) could also reasonably deliver additional floorspace. B1bGL HearnPage 5 of 29

Greater Cambridge Local Plan Strategic Spatial Options Assessment: Employment, November 2020Greater Cambridge Shared Planninglower density labs need further supply which could be considered under 3,4,6,7,8where space is available. For industrial and warehousing needs, spatial scenarios3,4,6,7,8 are likely to be suitable as larger areas of land will be available to meetfloorspace requirements.Conclusion1.12Overall, the ELR’s recommendation is to plan positively for growth and as a result toconsider the employment floorspace outcomes under the report’s ‘higher’ growthscenario, which is equivalent to the maximum growth option in the Local Plan. Thisrecommendation is without prejudice to any housing or jobs outcomes.GL HearnPage 6 of 29

Greater Cambridge Local Plan Strategic Spatial Options Assessment: Employment, November 2020Greater Cambridge Shared Planning2INTRODUCTION2.1A final draft employment land review (ELR) titled Greater Cambridge EmploymentLand and Economic Development Evidence Study has been completed as ofSeptember 2020 although the primary modelling was completed in winter 2019. Asa result the outcomes and recommendations do not take account of COVID19implications.2.2The ELR considers a range of issues including the local property market, economicclusters, land supply and future land needs. In terms of future needs, options aretested around labour supply, derived from the standard method population and jobsarising; a central employment scenario; and a higher employment scenario. Thecentral scenario sees jobs being created broadly in line with the same rate as in pastdecades and is considered most likely outcome taking into account long term historicpatterns of employment. The higher scenario places a greater weight on fast growthin the recent past, particularly in key sectors. It recognises that there has been a rateof job creation from 2010 to 2017 that has been considerably higher than the 19912010 average demonstrating the capability of the local economy, however the higherscenario model does assume a slow down in this higher rate across the Plan periodas a whole.Assessment of strategic (non-site specific) spatial options2.3Cambridge City Council and South Cambridgeshire District Council completed publicconsultation on the Greater Cambridge Local Plan First Conversation (Issues andOptions) in early 2020. Building on the initial options set out in the First Conversation,the Councils have identified three growth level options for homes and jobs and eightstrategic (non-site specific) spatial options for testing. Description of the options andexplanation of how they were developed is set out in the Greater Cambridge LocalPlan: strategic spatial options for testing – methodology document.GL HearnPage 7 of 29

Greater Cambridge Local Plan Strategic Spatial Options Assessment: Employment, November 2020Greater Cambridge Shared Planning2.4The Councils have asked consultants producing Local Plan evidence studies,including the Sustainability Appraisal, to assess the strategic options with regard totheir initial evidence findings. This report forms one element of that assessment.2.5The initial evidence findings will be reported to the Joint Local Plan Advisory Groupin autumn 2020, and will help inform further engagement with stakeholders.2.6Preferred Options public consultation is planned for summer/autumn 2021, includinga preferred strategy and draft allocations. The process of Local Plan preparation isset out below in Figure 1.Figure 1: Local Plan Preparation FlowchartSource: Greater Cambridge Shared Planning ServiceGL HearnPage 8 of 29

Greater Cambridge Local Plan Strategic Spatial Options Assessment: Employment, November 2020Greater Cambridge Shared Planning3THE STRATEGIC OPTIONS3.1The three growth level options tested through this report are: Minimum – Standard Method homes-led Medium – central scenario employment-led Maximum – higher employment-led3.2The spatial scenarios tested through this report are: GL Hearn1 Densification of existing urban areas2 Edge of Cambridge – outside the Green Belt3 Edge of Cambridge – Green Belt4 Dispersal – new settlements5 Dispersal – villages6 Public transport corridors7 Supporting a high-tech corridor by integrating homes and jobs8 Expanding a growth area around transport nodesPage 9 of 29

Greater Cambridge Local Plan Strategic Spatial Options Assessment: Employment, November 2020Greater Cambridge Shared Planning4METHODOLOGY4.1In assessing the levels of employment growth, this report draws on the wider ELRwhich takes into account the demand supply balance of various floorspace types aswell as qualitative findings relating to business clusters.4.2In assessing spatial options from an employment perspective the following havebeen considered: GL HearnLabour force accessibility, availability and proximitySuitability for future economic growth sector land usesProximity to existing clustersDeliverability / market responsePage 10 of 29

Greater Cambridge Local Plan Strategic Spatial Options Assessment: Employment, November 2020Greater Cambridge Shared Planning5COMMENTARY ON LEVELS OF GROWTH5.1The standard method scenario in the ELR is equivalent to the jobs (and thereforehomes) in the minimum growth scenario in the Local Plan options. Given the rate ofjobs creation in the past, the ELR does not recommend planning for the outcomesof the standard method scenario which would see job growth constrained to around60% of the long term historic rate due to a lack of labour supply. The current level offloorspace commitments in the Greater Cambridge land supply would provideenough B1a (offices), B1b (laboratories) and B1c (light industrial) employment landto meet the needs generated under the standard method, however there would be ashortfall in industrial and warehousing needs.5.2The central scenario in the ELR is equivalent to the jobs (and therefore homes) inthe medium growth scenario in the Local Plan options. Given the rate of job creationin the past, the ELR recognises this as the most likely outcome for the GreaterCambridge economy as it is comparable to the long term historic jobs growth, but inplanning positively for growth the ELR does not recommend planning for theemployment floorspace outcomes of the central scenario – without prejudice to anyhousing or jobs outcomes. The current level of employment commitments in theGreater Cambridge land supply would provide enough B1a and B1b employmentland to meet the needs generated under the central scenario if the mixed B1 supplycomponents include a sufficient amount of B1b in particular. There would be ashortfall in industrial and warehousing needs.5.3The higher scenario in the ELR is equivalent to the jobs (and therefore homes) inthe maximum growth scenario in the Local Plan options. The higher scenario placesa greater weight on fast growth in the recent past, particularly in key sectors. Itrecognises that there has been a rate of job creation from 2010 to 2017 that hasbeen considerably higher than the 1991-2010 average. It does not assume this muchfaster job growth continues indefinitely but does assume that the long term futureaverage is influenced by the performance of the economy in the recent past. InGL HearnPage 11 of 29

Greater Cambridge Local Plan Strategic Spatial Options Assessment: Employment, November 2020Greater Cambridge Shared Planningplanning positively for growth it is recommended that the level of employment landassociated with the higher growth be planned for without prejudice to anyemployment and housing outcomes. This enables a flexible supply ensuring choicefor business growth and inward investment. It minimises potential restrictions onemployment growth associated with land use planning and also aligns more closelywith the completions trends and the property market feedback. The current level ofemployment commitments in the Greater Cambridge land supply are not consideredto provide a sufficient amount of B1a and particularly B1b floorspace to meet theneeds generated under the higher scenario. There would also be a shortfall inindustrial and warehousing needs.GL HearnPage 12 of 29

Greater Cambridge Local Plan Strategic Spatial Options Assessment: Employment, November 2020Greater Cambridge Shared Planning6COMMENTARY ON SPATIAL OPTIONSSpatial Scenario 1: Focus on Densification of existing urban areas6.1This approach would focus new homes and jobs within Cambridge, because it is themain urban area and centre for services and facilities. The primary location fordevelopment within the urban area is at North East Cambridge: this is the last majorbrownfield site within Cambridge urban area and is being taken forward separatelyvia an Area Action Plan.Labour force accessibility, availability and proximity6.2Within Cambridge, employment is anticipated to provide highly accessibleemployment opportunities to a significant labour pool in the city with short andsustainable modes of commuting. Cambridge North Station provides a highlyaccessible access node.Suitability for future economic growth sector land uses6.3Within city development will be well suited to higher density offices and ‘dry lab’research type space. However more land hungry use classes such as wet labresearch spaces and light industrial or warehousing are unlikely to be suited to cityareas due to the high land and rental values and competition for land with housingand other uses.Proximity to existing clusters6.4The city has a well established professional services offer with a cluster oftechnology orientated firms at Cambridge Science Park and a range of firms atCambridge Business Park. North East Cambridge is likely to be able to build on thesuccess of nearby premises in developing an office / technology offer. However, itmay be less attractive to lifescience orientated businesses due to reasons notedabove relating to higher density utilisation.GL HearnPage 13 of 29

Greater Cambridge Local Plan Strategic Spatial Options Assessment: Employment, November 2020Greater Cambridge Shared PlanningDeliverability / market response6.5The occupier and investment market will be attracted to in city development such asNorth East Cambridge. It is likely to be primarily targeted at prime office / lab spaceas previously achieved in the city due to the desirability of the location. An increasein supply may temper rental values. Mid-market rental premises and non-officebased activities are expected to see lower levels of market interest.Options issues6.6Minimum: B1ab premises needs, which are limited under this option, would be metthrough the NEC or other urban intensification. This scenario may fail to providesufficient industrial and warehousing floorspace requirements through intensificationof the urban sites in the city alone.6.7Medium: B1ab premises needs, which are limited under this option, would be metthrough the NEC or other urban intensification. This scenario may fail to providesufficient industrial and warehousing floorspace requirements through intensificationof the urban sites in the city alone.6.8Maximum: B1a premises needs are expected be met through the NEC or otherurban intensification. Lower density wet lab B1b premises may not be fulfilledthrough urban intensification alone. This scenario may fail to provide sufficientindustrial and warehousing floorspace requirements through intensification of theurban sites in the city alone.Spatial Scenario 2: Focus on Edge of Cambridge: outside Green Belt6.9This approach would create new homes and jobs in extensions on the edge ofCambridge, using land not in the green belt. The only large site on the edge ofCambridge not in the Green Belt is Cambridge Airport.GL HearnPage 14 of 29

Greater Cambridge Local Plan Strategic Spatial Options Assessment: Employment, November 2020Greater Cambridge Shared PlanningLabour force accessibility, availability and proximity6.10Edge of Cambridge employment (Cambridge Airport) is anticipated to provide a goodlevel of accessible employment to a significant labour pool in the city with short andsustainable modes of commuting. However connectivity via public mode ie via trainis not on offer creating a weakness compared to CB1 / NEC locations.Suitability for future economic growth sector land uses6.11As with scenario 1, Edge of Cambridge development will be well suited to higherdensity offices and ‘dry lab’ research type space. The volume of land available at theairport is anticipated to be able to provide for some of the more land hungry useclasses such as wet lab research spaces and light industrial or warehousing.Proximity to existing clusters6.12The employment offer is more limited at the edge of centre around the airport.However, this is unlikely to present an issue due to the level of demand expected forthe site. As a result it is feasible that in the medium term the development of anemployment centre could be successful, having a relationship with the existing citycentre offer as well as Science Park area tech / professional services and some lifesciences.Deliverability / market response6.13The occupier and investment market is anticipated to be attracted to edge of citydevelopment such as Cambridge Airport. Prime office / lab space is anticipated tobe achieved over time however there might be a lead in to achieving a more criticalmass. Mid-market and SME premises are anticipated to be attracted here. A majoremployer / institutional investor interest would kick start the location’s desirability inemployment terms.Options issues6.14Minimum: B1ab premises needs, which are limited under this option, would be metthrough provision at Cambridge Airport or other similar sites. This scenario may failGL HearnPage 15 of 29

Greater Cambridge Local Plan Strategic Spatial Options Assessment: Employment, November 2020Greater Cambridge Shared Planningto provide sufficient industrial and warehousing floorspace requirements throughprovision at this edge of city site alone.6.15Medium: B1ab premises needs, which are limited under this option, would be metthrough provision at Cambridge Airport or other similar sites. This scenario may failto provide sufficient industrial and warehousing floorspace requirements throughprovision at this edge of city site alone.6.16Maximum: B1a premises needs are likely to be met through provision at CambridgeAirport or other non-Greenbelt development. It is possible that lower density wet labB1b premises may be delivered at this location but competition for use may seerequirements unfulfilled. This scenario alone may fail to provide sufficient industrialand warehousing floorspace requirements.Spatial Scenario 3: Focus on Edge of Cambridge: Green Belt6.17This approach would create new homes and jobs in extensions on the edge ofCambridge, involving release of land from the Green Belt.Labour force accessibility, availability and proximity6.18Edge of Cambridge employment (Green Belt) is anticipated to provide a good levelof accessible employment to a significant labour pool in the city with short andsustainable modes of commuting. However connectivity via public mode (ie via train)will depend on individual locations. This would affect the attractiveness and suitabilityof particular locations.Suitability for future economic growth sector land uses6.19Edge of city development will be well suited to higher density offices and ‘dry lab’research type space as well as more land hungry use classes such as wet labresearch spaces and light industrial or warehousing.GL HearnPage 16 of 29

Greater Cambridge Local Plan Strategic Spatial Options Assessment: Employment, November 2020Greater Cambridge Shared PlanningProximity to existing clusters6.20A range of medium and large-scale employment locations exist on the edge ofCambridge which operate successfully in isolation. This includes Capital Park,Marshalls, Cambridge Science Park and the Biomedical Campus. The developmentof a new employment location is likely to be successful given existing sectorstrengths, levels of demand and forecast employment growth in Greater CambridgeIt is feasible that in the medium term the development of a new employment centrecould be successful, having a relationship with the existing city offer.Deliverability / market response6.21The occupier and investment market is anticipated to be attracted to edge of citydevelopment. Prime office / lab space is anticipated to be achieved over timehowever there might be a lead in to achieving a more critical mass. Mid-market andSME premises are anticipated to be attracted here. A major employer / institutionalinvestor interest would kick start any location’s desirability in employment terms.Options issues6.22Minimum: B1ab premises needs, which are limited under this option, could be metthrough Greenbelt release around Cambridge. This scenario is likely to be able toprovide sufficient industrial and warehousing floorspace requirements if sufficientland is released.6.23Medium: B1ab premises needs, which are limited under this option, could be metthrough Greenbelt release around Cambridge. This scenario is likely to be able toprovide sufficient industrial and warehousing floorspace requirements if sufficientland is released.6.24Maximum: B1a premises needs are likely to be met through the releasing Greenbeltdevelopment. It is possible that lower density wet lab B1b premises could also bedelivered at this location. This scenario is likely to be able to provide sufficientindustrial and warehousing floorspace requirements if sufficient land is released.GL HearnPage 17 of 29

Greater Cambridge Local Plan Strategic Spatial Options Assessment: Employment, November 2020Greater Cambridge Shared PlanningSpatial Scenario 4: Focus on New Settlements6.25New settlements would establish a whole new town or village, providing homes, jobsand supporting infrastructure in a new location, and would need to be supported bystrategic transport infrastructure connecting to Cambridge.Labour force accessibility, availability and proximity6.26New settlements will provide a direct source of sustainable labour for employment.This will be assisted if connected to Cambridge.Suitability for future economic growth sector land uses6.27New settlement development will be well suited to accommodating the full range ofland uses associated with Greater Cambridge’s sectors including offices, labs andwarehousing / industrial given opportunities for available land.Proximity to existing clusters6.28Employment parks exist across Greater Cambridge. Outside of the city and fringethese are spread across South Cambridgeshire including at Cambourne and anumber in the south such as Granta Park, Babraham and Genome Campus. Thissuggests that spatial proximity is unlikely to be a key factor in generating neweconomic development, although professional services offices in particular clusternear to the city. The south / south east of South Cambridgeshire has generally beenmore successful in developing life science related employment. This is largely linkedto institutional investment. Cambourne has been slower to create a critical mass inemployment. The location of a new settlement may therefore have a bearing on itslevel of employment success.Deliverability / market response6.29As above the market has had a mixed response to delivering employment at newsettlements, with an institutional investor or major employer playing a central role.The permitted application for the expansion of the Genome Campus indicates thebenefits of aligning employment and housing ensuring sustainable proximity forGL HearnPage 18 of 29

Greater Cambridge Local Plan Strategic Spatial Options Assessment: Employment, November 2020Greater Cambridge Shared Planningcommuting. Other settlements have seen a comparatively weaker response foremployment such as Cambourne and Northstowe. Developing a new employmentoffer contrary to the major benefits of the city and existing locations can provechallenging.Options issues6.30Minimum: B1ab premises needs, which are limited under this option, could be metthrough provision at a new settlement(s). However the market’s preference wouldbe to see new B1a and some B1b space delivered in close proximity to the city. Thisscenario is likely to be able to provide sufficient industrial and warehousingfloorspace.6.31Medium: B1ab premises needs, which are limited under this option, could be metthrough provision at a new settlement(s). However the market’s preference wouldbe to see new B1a and some B1b space delivered in close proximity to the city. Thisscenario is likely to be able to provide sufficient industrial and warehousingfloorspace.6.32Maximum: B1a premises needs, which are limited under this option, could be metthrough provision at a new settlement(s). However the market’s preference wouldbe to see new B1a and some B1b delivered in close proximity to the city. Largerscale B1b delivery may be possible at a new settlement particular if an institutionalinvestor is involved, as will be case at the new Wellcome Trust Genome Campus.Historically a number of larger research parks have been delivered near to –although not wholly integrated in – local villages in South Cambridgeshire. Thisscenario is likely to be able to provide sufficient industrial and warehousingfloorspace.Spatial Scenario 5: Focus on Dispersal: Villages6.33GL HearnThis approach would spread new homes and jobs out to the villages.Page 19 of 29

Greater Cambridge Local Plan Strategic Spatial Options Assessment: Employment, November 2020Greater Cambridge Shared PlanningLabour force accessibility, availability and proximity6.34A dispersal of employment across villages is likely to temper the ability of largeremployment development to agglomerate being limited by localised workforce. Theaccessibility of individual locations to large labour pools may affect their economicdevelopment capability.Suitability for future economic growth sector land uses6.35Employment at village locations has been a success in a number of locationsincluding Melbourn, Hauxton and the Abingtons. The availability of land tends tomake these locations suitable to all employment land use types including offices, wetlabs and warehousing / industrial.Proximity to existing clusters6.36As noted above, a number of the existing employment parks have successfullydeveloped near to villages (occasionally adjacent to) across Greater Cambridgeincluding at Cambourne and a number in the south such as Granta Park, Babrahamand Genome Campus. This suggests that spatial proximity is unlikely to be a keyfactor in generating new economic development, although professional servicesoffices in particular cluster near to the city. The south / south east of SouthCambridgeshire has generally been more successful in developing life sciencerelated employment. This is largely linked to institutional investment. Cambournehas been slower to create a critical mass in employment. The location of employmentdistribution may therefore have a bear

Options) in early 2020. Building on the initial options set out in the First Conversation, the Councils have identified three growth level options for homes and jobs and eight strategic (non-site specific) spatial options for testing. Description of the options and explanation of how they

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