Perspectives April 2021 - Cibcassetmanagement

2y ago
15 Views
2 Downloads
564.03 KB
11 Pages
Last View : 1m ago
Last Download : 2m ago
Upload by : Halle Mcleod
Transcription

PERSPECTIVESFor the 12-month period beginning April 1, 2021Roaring back to lifeTable of contentsAsset class highlights1Multi-asset outlook23Global strategy3Global equity markets4Global bond strategies5Currencies6Commodities6Regional views7Alternative scenarios10Economic forecasts11The global economy will enjoy its strongest growth on record over the next fourquarters, as the recovery continues from the deepest recession since WorldWar II. On the COVID vaccination front, herd immunity is finally within reachin a growing number of countries. Developed world governments also havean impressive arsenal still at their disposal due to the full cooperation of theirrespective central banks.Asset class highlightsEquity: Equities in most countries are moderately but not extremely overvalued.Cyclical forces will likely push equities higher, but high valuation could limitpotential gains.Fixed Income: We continue to favour emerging market (EM) debt based on anumber of factors including our upbeat forecast on commodities and China andour bearish USD long-term view.Currencies: We expect the U.S. dollar downtrend to resume, given the globaleconomic recovery, the Fed’s policy rate anchored near zero and the adoptionof Average Inflation Targeting (AIT) that implicitly targets a weaker U.S. dollar.China: Consensus opinion is underestimating the strength of the foreign globaldemand that will benefit China. Historically, periods of strong global growthhave been associated with positive economic surprises in China.

CIBC ASSET MANAGEMENTMulti-asset outlookCurrentMarch 31, 2021Most likely minimum ofrange for next 12 monthsMost likely maximum ofrange for next 12 monthsCanada 3-month T-Bills rate0.25%0.25%0.25%Canada 2-year government bond yield0.22%0.20%0.65%Canada 10-year government bond yield1.56%1.00%2.15%U.S. 10-year government bond yield1.74%1.25%2.25%Germany 10-year government bond yield-0.29%-0.45%0.10%Japan 10-year government bond yield0.09%-0.25%0.25%Canada 10-year real-return government bond yield0.22%-0.05%0.55%Canada investment grade corporate spreads1.22%1.40%0.95%U.S. high yield corporate spreads3.30%5.25%3.15%324250500S&P/TSX price index18,70117,75020,500S&P 500 price index3,9733,7004,350Euro Stoxx 50 price index3,9193,7504,350Japan Topix price index1,9541,8502,150MSCI Emerging Markets74,28970,00083,500U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar1.25621.2191.282Euro/U.S. Dollar1.17301.1601.230U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen110.72104.00112.00U.S. Dollar/Offshore Chinese Yuan6.566.286.90Gold1,7081,6002,200Oil price, WTI (West Texas Intermediate)59.1657.0075.00Asset classEmerging market sovereign (USD denominated) bond spreadsSource: Thomson Reuters Datastream, CIBC Asset Management Inc.ROARING BACK TO LIFE 2

CIBC ASSET MANAGEMENTAsset class outlookGlobal overviewRoaring back to lifeGiven the colossal efforts deployed by monetary and fiscalauthorities around the world and a successful and acceleratingglobal vaccination campaign, the global economy is expectedto roar back to life. After experiencing its deepest recessionsince the Second World War, owing to the global pandemic andlockdown, the world economy is about to enjoy its strongestgrowth on record over the next four quarters ( 7.8% averageglobal real GDP growth between 2021Q2 and 2022Q1). This iscertainly very good news.Of course, our bullish global forecast is conditional on how theCOVID-19 global pandemic evolves. From this perspective,there are good reasons to feel more upbeat. In many developedcountries, the share of the population that have received a firstvaccination is fast-rising and the number of active cases isincreasing at a decelerating pace. In more and more countriesherd immunity is within reach.We’re also very optimistic because of the impressive arsenalstill at the disposal of governments. Around the developedworld, governments have been able to deliver massive fiscalsupport because of the full cooperation of their respectivecentral banks. This was made possible because most of thehistorically large fiscal deficits recorded since the start ofthe pandemic have been monetized—that is, central bankshave been printing money to buy the heavy load of new debtsecurities issued by governments.For the time being, fiscal policy leeway remains unconstrained.Monetary authority policymakers continue working hard tomake sure that the fiscal situation remains under control.Faster economic growth and higher inflation are both requiredfor governments to get their fiscal houses in order andmonetary authorities are fully aware of this. As such, they willkeep the global monetary policy stance ultra-accommodativethrough their joint policy actions. This means keepingborrowing costs ultra-low across the whole maturity spectrum.From that angle, it’s too soon to take away the punch bowl,implying that global liquidity will remain abundant over theforecast horizon. Ample liquidity is an essential condition forkeeping risky assets in rallying mode.The reality for global investors, however, is that this very rosyworld economy outlook is, to a large extent, already pricedin to financial markets. More and more market participantsare already starting to worry about the day central banks willstart mopping the excess liquidity out of the global financialsystem. They’re right. Eventually, there will come a time whenthere will be enough improvement on the fiscal front, as wellas enough growth and inflation in the economy, to start toforesee a stabilization in the government’s heavy debt load.When that time comes, monetary authorities will have to find away to start draining excess liquidity without causing too muchdamage to economic and financial conditions. This promisesto be a very difficult task. With a faster economic recoveryand higher inflation projected for the U.S. than elsewhere inthe developed world, the first central bank in line will surely bethe U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). However, the commitment ofother central banks to cooperate with governments will also beincreasingly questioned by investors. The pullback in the U.S.Treasury market and the greenback’s comeback over the firstquarter give us a taste of what we can expect over the forecasthorizon—greater uncertainty for the economic direction andhigher financial market volatility.Global strategyRebalancing the bond risk premiumThere are 4 key assumptions underpining over economicoutlook. Those assumptions not only define our economicscenario but also have important implications for financialmarkets. First, a fast and efficient vaccination campaign willbring back life after COVID-19 and will remain effective againstmutations. Second, we expect a strong economic reboundled by the consumer. Consumers have massive firepower,supported by helicopter1 money from the government, asharp increase in worker compensation on top of the excesssavings already in hand, and low interest rates that arereducing the cost of debt. Third, monetary policy will remainhighly accommodative and more fiscal support is expected.Fourth, inflation will return because of cost-push inflationarypressures, supply shortages, fast-rising energy prices and astrong FX(foreign currency) pass-through (in the event of U.S.inflation).There are obviously a number of risks associated with theseassumptions, but those risks fall within the scope of less-likelyalternative scenarios. What’s notable is that there is a fairlystrong consensus around the expectations for the economicrecovery. The key questions are not related to the economyitself but to financial markets, and one of the key questions ishow much of this positive scenario has already been priced in?Ignoring valuation for a moment, let’s look at the cyclical factor.Our assumptions imply that the outlook for equities shouldbe quite positive, but less positive for bonds. Equities typicallydo well during periods of economic expansion becauseearnings are strong and the appetite for risk supports high P/Eratios. Meanwhile, bond yields would rise on expectations ofupcoming policy tightening. But the two are not independent,in the sense that rising bond yields could at one point chokethe bull market in equities. At what point? The difficulty inanswering this question is that there isn’t really a “breakingROARING BACK TO LIFE 3

CIBC ASSET MANAGEMENTpoint”, a level in bond yields where equities would start tofeel some pain. It’s more a matter of perception by marketparticipants, and subject to the “market mood”, which canchange depending on circumstances. What really matterswhen determining the impact of bond yields on equities are theprevailing conditions.One thing to keep in mind is that rising bond yields are notnecessarily bad for equities. What matters most is the spreadbetween growth and interest rates. If growth rises faster thanbond yields, at the margin this is positive for equities. Anotherpoint is that the outlook for bonds will be highly influenced byinflation expectations. Rising inflation pressures would typicallylead to expectations of a tightening in monetary policy, in turnpushing bond yields upward. But central bankers have beenvery clear that they want more inflation and will look throughtemporary factors and even tolerate inflation above theirtarget, formally (in the case of the Fed) or informally (in thecase of the ECB). In other words, the policy reaction functionhas changed and we should therefore also expect a differentrelationship between inflation, bond yields and equities. As aresult, we don’t expect that rising inflation and bond yields willbe a significant headwind for equities.Turning our attention to the relative valuation of equitiesvs. bonds, we see that the picture has changed significantlyover the past few months. While equities continued to rally,bond yields have been moving up across the world, in bothdeveloped and emerging countries. As a result, equities andbonds are now generally comparable on a valuation basis.Our main measure to compare valuation between the two isour multi-asset risk premium model. According to this model,equities still have a higher risk premium than bonds, whichshould be the case most of time because equities are riskierthan bonds. However, when we adjust the risk premium ofeach asset class by its respective volatility, we see in developedcountries, on a risk-adjusted basis, that bonds now offer a riskpremium comparable to that of equities. There are exceptionssuch as the eurozone and Japan, where bond yields are stillquite low. To be clear, we’re not saying bonds are fairly valued.Bond yields are still below our long-term equilibrium. Forexample, in Canada at the end of March, 10-year governmentbonds were trading at 1.56%, while our long term target is2.21%. What this means instead is that equities and bonds arenow equally overvalued—equities are more overvalued thanthey were in the recent past while bonds are less overvalued.Global equity marketsCyclical forces and valuation in a tug of warWhile the economic outlook may be quite supportive forequities, it seems that much of the good news has already beenpriced in. In a textbook economic cycle, following a recession,investors will start to anticipate the recovery before it actuallyhappens. While realized earnings still remain depresed,forward earnings will rise well before trailing earnings andequity prices will move up rapidly on improving expectations.As such, P/E ratios based on trailing earnings would rise andcould surpass their pre-recession levels, as prices rise whileearnings don’t. However, ratios based on forward earningsshould be less influenced by the earnings cycle as prices andforward earnings both increase at the same time. Applyingthis logic to the current situation, this is where valuation couldbecome a headwind—forward P/Es have already increasedsignificantly. Basically, the market is not only pricing in arecovery in earnings, it’s also expecting that earnings forecastswill need to be revised upward.Earnings are expected to grow over the next 12 monthsby 22%, 30% and 45% respectively in the U.S., eurozoneand Canada. Although that seems high at first glance, it’sconsistent with previous post-recession recoveries. Theunprecedented nature of the current cycle makes it hardto predict earnings growth. Given the very strong expectedrebound in economic activity, it’s reasonable to expect abigger-than-usual rebound in earnings. So there might be someroom for upgrades to earnings forecasts. But as we just argued,this has already been priced in, so the bar is high.The picture is relatively consistent across countries. Equities inmost countries are moderately overvalued, but not to extremelevels. Over a long-term horizon (5 to 10 years), valuation isa key driver of returns. However, on a tactical basis (6 to 18months), we think of valuation as a marginal driver of returns,unless it becomes very under- or over-valued. Equities are notthere yet. In the current environment of very strong growthand extremely easy monetary policy, we can’t rule out thatvaluation will continue to rise and reach extreme levels.Although it’s possible, it’s hard to make the case for equitiesif that case relies only on expensive valuation becoming moreexpensive—there have to be other factors. The most likelyoutcome is that cyclical forces will push equities higher, buthigh valuation will limit potential gains.To stay on the valuation front, we’ve argued in the past thatemerging equities were undervalued and much more attractivethan U.S. equities, which were overvalued. However, theperformance of the last few months has partially closed thatgap. For example, since the last quarter of 2020, Korea, Taiwanand India are up by roughly 35%, all driven by higher P/Eratios. Those countries represent a bit more than a third of theemerging markets index (China makes up another third andall other countries comprise the remaining). Overall, emergingmarkets are up by nearly 70% since March 2020. The strengthof commodity prices and the weakness of the USD will supportcyclical markets, so emerging markets should continue tooutperform. But this time it won’t come from valuation.ROARING BACK TO LIFE 4

CIBC ASSET MANAGEMENTGlobal growth projections: CAM forecast March 2021 vs. December 2020%161514131211109876543210CanadaJapanGlobal growth estimates in DecemberEurozoneU.S.WorldChinaIndiaGlobal growth estimates in MarchSources: Refinitiv-Datastream and CIBC Asset Management Inc.Global bond strategiesIn the first quarter, global bonds experienced a swift decline, asthe benchmark global bond index2 lost -3.09%. Stress was alsopalpable in emerging markets, with the benchmark3 yield movingfrom 4.22% to 4.99%. The poor performance of global bondsacross the board can be traced to one common factor—the swiftre-pricing of the U.S. yield curve, as U.S. Treasury yields increasedfrom 0.92% to 1.68%.The Federal Reserve’s adoption of its new average inflationtargeting helped push market participants’ inflation expectationshigher in the first quarter. Combined with accelerating vaccinationprospects that are leading to expectations of a global economicreopening, bond yields rose from their pandemic depressed levelsearly in the year. Those levels reflect more normal economicactivity over the coming months and also lifted the real interestrate level component of nominal bond yields.Putting our outlook on real yields and breakeven yields together(see side bar), Treasury yields should trade around 1.75% over theinvestment horizon. 10-year bond yields should operate inside a1.25% to 2.25% range in the U.S. and between 1.00% and 2.15%in Canada.Turning to sovereign bond allocations, our bond strategy remainssimilar to last quarter despite the recent volatility. We remainoverweight emerging market (EM) bonds and underweightdeveloped market (DM) bonds. The latest EM local yield increasesconstitute opportunities to add to existing EM bond positions. Asthe volatility in the U.S. Treasury market subsides in the next fewquarters, EM local bonds should resume their outperformance.Factors also supporting our favourable view towards EM debt arethe steepness of EM yield curves, high EM real yields by historicalstandards, our upbeat forecast on commodities and China, mildinflationary pressure in most EM countries, an improved EMstructural landscape over the last 5 years and our bearish USDsecular view.Breaking it downReal yields vs breakeven yields (i.e. the inflationexpectation component of nominal yield)Broken down by its components, 10-year real yields wentfrom -1.06% to -0.68% while breakeven yields startedthe quarter at 1.97% and finished at 2.36%. Goingforward, these dynamics should stabilize. Our base casescenario points towards breakeven yields slowly grindinghigher and real yields remaining anchored well under0%. The upside for breakeven should be limited fromthis point as the incoming rise in U.S. inflation is, in largepart, already priced in to the bond market. Already at2.30%, breakeven rates are likely to peak around 2.60%and fade back towards 2.30% afterwards.The outlook for real yields appears less straightforward,however. Although strong growth momentum traditionallyROARING BACK TO LIFE 5

CIBC ASSET MANAGEMENTpushes real yield higher, the Fed is likely to keepinfluencing this market through continued activepurchases to facilitate massive expected debt financing.As a result, real rates should remain anchored closeto -0.50% over the horizon, and a slide to even lowerlevels cannot be ruled out.result, Canadian bonds are now just as attractive as they were priorto the pandemic on an un-hedged basis.For these reasons, the Canadian dollar is expected to stay inrallying mode. Looking forward, the Canadian dollar is expected totrade between .78 and .82 US cents (or 1.22 to 1.28 USDCAD) overthe forecast horizon.Canadian dollar still trading in undervalued territoryryCAD/USD bilateral exchange rate & CAM fair value estimateCurrenciesU.S. DollarThe U.S. dollar staged a comeback during the first quarter of2021, appreciating by more than 2% on a trade-weighted basis.The appreciation of the greenback since the start of the year wasparticularly strong against the Japanese yen, swiss franc and theeuro. It’s no coincidence that this happened just as the U.S. Treasurybond was experiencing a significant pullback owing to America’sstrong cyclical revival. Looking further out into 2021, however, therest of the developed world will be accelerating vaccinations andeasing lockdown conditions, leading to a broader global recovery.This should allow the U.S. dollar downtrend to resume, given theforces at work. First, the greenback typically underperforms inglobal economic recovery phases like the one now taking place.Second, with the Fed’s policy rate anchored near zero, the U.S. dollarno longer has an interest rate advantage. Last but not least, withthe adoption of its new Average Inflation Targeting (AIT) policyframework, the Federal Reserve is implicitly targeting a weaker U.S.dollar and will continue to flood the world with U.S. dollar liquidity.Canadian DollarSince hitting cyclical lows in late March, the Canadian dollar hasbeen in rallying mode against the greenback, for a cumulativeappreciation of approximately 17%. We think the Canadian dollarhas more upside against the USD for three reasons.First, valuation is still not an obstacle for further appreciation of theCanadian dollar. When the Canadian dollar shifted to rallying modein late March, so did its fair value via a fast improvement in termsof trade. The result has been almost no deterioration on thevaluation front.It’s also worth noting that the positive terms-of-trade shock pushingthe Canadian dollar higher is not just about stronger energy prices.Non-energy commodity prices are also up sharply from the cyclicallows reached in early 2020. Looking forward, there is room for aneven bigger positive terms-of-trade shock via both higher energyand non-energy prices.We also have to take into account that Canadian federalgovernment bond yields have been moving higher in tandemwith their U.S. equivalents. Canadian 10-year bond yields are nowtrading at 1.54%, roughly 100 bps higher than in 2020. As a1.041.000.960.92Undervalued by -6%0.88Fair 32014CADUSD bilateral rate201520162017201820192020 2021CAM fair value estimateSources: Refinitiv-Datastream and CIBC Asset Management IncEuroFor more than 13 years, the euro has been on a secular downtrendagainst the U.S. dollar. On four occasions, breakouts on the upsidewere attempted with no success. We witnessed a fifth breakoutattempt over the second half of 2020, but the jury is still out onwhether it will be successful. Indeed, EURUSD climbed all the wayto 1.23 in early 2021 but gave back some ground since then. It hasrecently been retesting key support levels. In our opinion, onceEurope’s cyclical backdrop starts improving again, the euro willrecoup some of the ground recently lost. Over the longer term,fluctuations in the EURUSD bilateral exchange will likelybe increasingly dictated by supportive fundamental determinants.The EURUSD exchange rate is projected to trade between 1.16and 1.23.Japanese YenSince the start of 2021 and among the major currencies, theJapanese yen has been the currency that depreciated the mostagainst the U.S. dollar. Why is that? For nearly five years, theBank of Japan has been anchoring JGB 10-year yields aroundzero via its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy. As a result,U.S. Treasury bond market pullback episodes have typically ledto the strengthening of the USDJPY bilateral rate. The early 2021episode was no exception. The 80 bps increase in U.S. 10-yearTreasury yields observed since January has translated into a 7.4% appreciation of the U.S. dollar against the yen. With limitedupside for Treasury yields from current levels, the USDJPY bilateralexchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 104 and 112 overthe forecast horizon.ROARING BACK TO LIFE 6

CIBC ASSET MANAGEMENTCommoditiesOilOil prices have been choppy year-to-date, rallying from a lowof 47/bbl at the start of the year to a peak of 66/bbl in earlyMarch, before settling in the 60/bbl range towards the end ofthe month and into April. The push and pull on the price has beendriven by concern around the third wave of COVID taking hold,offset by optimism around accelerating vaccination rates aroundthe world.Looking forward, the key to end-use demand for oil will be thepace of vaccination campaigns in certain countries and regions.The U.S. continues to race ahead with shots and re-openings,while Europe is on the verge of stepping up its own campaign,following several months of slower-than-anticipated rollouts.Crude oil consumption in China remains strong, which also goesa long way to support the market.On the supply side, OPEC has been strategic in returningbarrels to the market which, to this point, has helped supportthe commodity price. We are seeing global rig counts rise offa bottom, but note that the pace of growth thus far has beenreasonable and off a low base. With oil prices at current levels, weexpect producers will be tempted to start to bring more productionback to the market and we’ll watch production growth closelythrough the remainder of the year.Overall, we believe the setup for oil prices into the second half of2021 looks good. Rising global demand and some supply disciplineshould help keep the market fairly tight, which we believe willsupport the price.GoldThe gold price has struggled year-to-date. After peaking at 1,950/oz in January, the price fell to 1,700/oz in March,before bouncing back to 1,750/oz in mid-April. The fall inthe price coincided with increasing interest rates, as the U.S.Government 10-year bond yield climbed from 0.9% at the startof the year to 1.7% by April.Looking forward, we believe the outlook for gold remainsconstructive into the second half of the year. We believe bothmonetary and fiscal policies will remain accommodative asglobal economies begin to recover and reopen as vaccinationsramp up. Increasing money supply, lower interest rates and awillingness by central banks to tolerate higher-than-normalinflation could provide a tailwind for gold this year. On the otherhand, if vaccination rates pick up more slowly than expectedand the global economic recovery stalls, then there could be aflight to safety from investors. This could also provide a positiveenvironment for the gold price in the coming months andquarters. As signals on the outlook for precious metal priceswe continue to watch: Global fiscal and monetary policy The shape of the yield curve Inflation indicators Global macroeconomic data, pandemic data and political/social developmentsCopperThe copper price has been strong year-to-date, rallying from alow of 3.50/lb at the start of the year, to a nine-year high of 4.35/lb in late February, before settling around 4.00/lb inearly April. The price has been driven by strong demand out ofChina and supply-side constraints from key producing countriesin South America.Looking ahead, continued strong demand from China will bean important driver of the copper price over the remainder ofthe year. In recent weeks, we’ve seen inventory levels of coppertick higher but off a low base. Should demand pick up in thecoming months, the physical market for the red metal couldtighten, leading to strength in the price. On the supply side,Chile is quickly ramping up its vaccination campaign, but at thesame time the pandemic is accelerating, leading to a recentlyannounced month-long border closure. Output from key SouthAmerican countries will be important to watch in the comingmonths to see if supply can match demand this year.We believe the setup for copper looks favourable into the secondhalf of 2021. We see strong demand from China and potentiallyaccelerating demand from the U.S. and Europe as economicconditions start to normalize. There is the potential for tightnessin the copper market that could drive price appreciation throughthe year, as we expect supply will struggle to respond.Regional economic viewsCanada We expect average real GDP growth of 7.6% (y/y) over theforecast horizon, one of the strongest expansions since WWII. We’ll be monitoring developments on the provincial debtsustainability front.The Canadian economic recovery remained resilient at thebeginning of the year despite renewed virus resurgence andcontainment measures. With the vaccine rollout likely toaccelerate in the coming months, the Canadian economy shouldgain momentum from here. Our baseline scenario calls for averagereal GDP growth of 7.6% (y/y) over the forecast horizon, one ofthe strongest expansions since WWII.Consumers are expected to remain Canada’s growth enginethis year. Forced consumption retrenchment and an increasein disposable income led to a significant increase in householdsavings in 2020. Some of this accumulated savings is likely tobe spent as the re-opening of the economy proceeds. Consumerfundamentals are also likely to further improve this year.Worker compensation is set to continue to increase with theROARING BACK TO LIFE 7

CIBC ASSET MANAGEMENTrecovery of the labour market, while low interest rates shouldkeep households’ debt servicing costs low. Households are alsobenefiting from a substantial positive wealth effect thanks tostrong financial asset performance and surging house prices.In addition, fiscal and monetary authorities are expected to keepan accommodative policy stance over the forecast horizon. Inits latest budget update, the federal government announced theextension of some of its key COVID-19 support mechanisms(i.e. Emergency Wage Subsidy and the Emergency Rent Subsidy)as well as new measures to stimulate the economy once thepandemic is under control. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada (BoC)should keep the policy rate anchored near zero while continuing tomonetize a large portion of the federal government issuanceof debt securities.A potential risk to our growth forecast for Canada stems fromthe important increase of the provincial governments’ debt load.Like the federal government, all provinces significantly increasedspending to counteract the impact of the pandemic. Their deficitswidened significantly as a result, and their financing needs arenearly five times bigger than in previous years. However, provincesreceived little help from the Bank of Canada compared to thefederal government, and the BoC recently announced that it willlet the Provincial Bond Purchase Program expire in May. Fundingconditions for provincial governments, which are already relativelytight, are at risk of worsening over the projection horizon.Developments on the provincial debt sustainability front willtherefore be something to keep an eye on, and we see twooptions to address the situation. The BoC either goes back on itsdecision and monetizes more of the provincial debt, or the federalgovernment transfers more money to provinces, resulting in moreissuance of federal debt securities and more BoC monetization.United States Real GDP growth is projected to average 8.2% over theforecast horizon, the fastest growth in 79 years. U.S. consumer fundamentals have rarely been as strong asthey are right now.Bullish forecast still on trackLast quarter, we argued that the revival of the U.S. economywould likely surprise strongly on the upside in 2021. Our aboveconsensus view hasn’t changed—our bullish baseline U.S.economic forecast remains on track, with real GDP growthprojected to average 8.2% between 2021Q2 and 2022Q1,the fastest growth in 79 years.This very upbeat projection is based on three key assumptions.First and foremost, U.S. consumers have massive firepowermoving into 2021. Based on our calculations, the 2021 positivehousehold income shock could very well be just as big as theone in 2020. This will include more helicopter money from thegovernment and a sharp increase in worker compensation, ontop of the excess savings already in hand.

PERSPECTIVES For the 12-month period beginning April 1, 2021 Table of contents Asset class highlights 1 Multi-asset outlook 2 Global overview 3 Global strategy 3 Global equity markets 4 Global bond strategies 5. Currencies 6. Commodities 6. Regional views 7. Alternative scenarios 10.

Related Documents:

FSA ELA – Reading Grade 3 April 5 - 16, 2021 April 5 - 16, 2021 PBT 160 minutes May 2021 FSA ELA – Writing Grades 4–6 April 5 - 16, 2021 April 5 - 16, 2021 PBT 120 minutes June 2021 FSA ELA – Writing Grades 7–10 April 5 - 16, 2021 April

August 2, 2021 15 August 2, 2021 16 August 2, 2021 17 August 3, 2021 18 August 4, 2021 19 August 5, 2021 20 August 6, 2021 21 August 9, 2021 22 August 9, 2021 23 August 9, 2021 24 August 10, 2021 25 August 11, 2021 26 August 12, 2021 27 August 13, 2021 28 August 16, 2021 29 August 16, 2021 30 August 16, 2021 31

Spring HT Holiday 2021 Sat 13th Feb 2021 Mon 22nd Feb 2021 Teacher Training Day Spring Term b (6 weeks) Tue 23rd Feb 2021 Thurs 1st April 2021 Easter Holidays 2021 Fri 2nd April 2021 Sun 18th April 2021 Summer Term a (6 weeks) Mon 19th April 2021 Fri 28th May 2021 There is a May Bank

April 3rd Raise the Flag for Autism SOM Assemblies April 6th and 20th Sundaes for Kids April 10th Carousel Players (1-4) April 13th Spirit Day – Patterns! April 14th Good Friday April 17th – Easter Monday April 18th HepB/HPV shots – Gr. 8 April 25-28th Scholastic Book Fair April 25th Gr. 3-6 to Wizard o

Admission Brochure 2021. Important dates Thursday, April 1, 2021 to Thursday, April 8, 2021 Thursday, April 8, 2021 Monday, April 26, 2021 Monday, May 10, 2021 . IDC School of Design, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai 400 076 office.idc@iitb.ac.in admission.idc@iitb.ac.in 022 - 2576 7801.

Request for SOQ Issued April 12, 2021 Pre-Proposal Meeting via Zoom or Teams April 21, 2021, 10 am Deadline to submit questions April 23, 2021, 2 pm Final response to questions April 28, 2021 Deadline for SOQ Submissions May 5, 2021, 2:00 pm Target Date for Selection of Interviewees May 17, 2021 Interviews with Selected Firms May 24 -June 4, 2021

Course Calendar. This is a tentative outline, and the instructor reserves the right to make changes as she deems necessary. Week Date (Mon – Sun) Activity 1 April 5 – April 11 April 11, Sunday: Lecture. 2 April 12 – April 18 3 April 19 – April 25 4 April 26 –

Pearson Edexcel International GCSE (9–1) Accounting provides comprehensive coverage of the specifi cation and is designed to supply students with the best preparation possible for the examination: Written by highly experienced Accounting teachers and authors Content is mapped to the specifi cation to provide comprehensive coverage Learning is embedded with activities, revision .