U.S. Population Projections: 2012 To 2060
U.S. Population Projections:2012 to 2060Jennifer M. OrtmanPopulation DivisionPresentation for the FFC/GWBrown Bag Seminar Series on ForecastingWashington, DCFebruary 7, 2013U.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU
2012 National Projections First series based on the 2010 Census Projections of the U.S. population by age,sex, race, and Hispanic origin Covers the period from 2012 to 2060U.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU2
Overview Methodology and assumptions– Mortality– Fertility– Net International Migration Highlights from the resultsU.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU3
Making Population athsandEmigrantsFuturePopulationU.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU4
Mortality Projections One series of mortality projections Three race and Hispanic origin groups– Non-Hispanic White and Asian or PacificIslander (API)– Non-Hispanic Black and American Indian orAlaska Native (AIAN)– HispanicNote: The superseded Asian and Pacific Islander combinedcategory is used due to the lack of historical data for thecurrent categories of: (1) Asian and (2) Native Hawaiianand Other Pacific Islander.U.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU5
Mortality Projection Methodology Life expectancy at birth is projected foreach group to 2060– Hispanic life expectancy is projected toconverge to the rate projected for the nonHispanic White and API population in 2035 Use Coale-Demeny West model life tableto convert life expectancy projections toage-specific mortality ratesU.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU6
Life Expectancy at Birth by Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1989 to 206090Male Non‐HispanicWhite and APIFemale Non‐HispanicWhite and APIMale Non‐HispanicBlack and AIANFemale Non‐HispanicBlack and AIANMale HispanicFemale Hispanic858075Life Expectancy at BirthMale70Non‐Non‐Non‐Non‐Hispanic HispanicHispanic HispanicWhite Black andWhite Black andYear and APIAIAN HispanicAIAN Hispanic and 9203920492059U.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU7
Fertility Projections One series of fertility projections Rates for women aged 10 to 54 years Five race and Hispanic origin groups– Non-Hispanic WhiteBlackAmerican Indian or Alaska Native (AIAN)Asian or Pacific Islander (API)– HispanicU.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU8
Fertility Projection Methodology Average the age-specific fertility rates(ASFR) of non-Hispanic White females for1989-2009 Assume the ASFRs of all five groups willconverge to the average of the ASFRs forthe non-Hispanic White group in 2100U.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU9
Total Fertility Rates by Race and Hispanic Origin: 1989 to 2060TotalNon‐Hispanic AIANNon‐Hispanic WhiteNon‐Hispanic APINon‐Hispanic BlackHispanic3.532.521.51Year0.50198919992009Total Fertility RateNon‐Non‐Non‐Non‐Hispanic Hispanic Hispanic HispanicWhiteBlackAIANAPI .831.922.011.782.1520192029203920492059U.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU10
Net International MigrationProjections Foreign-born immigration ( ) Foreign-born emigration (-) Net native-born migration ( )U.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU11
Foreign-Born ImmigrationProjections Projected as a rate of emigration fromsending countries Rates calculated for years 1980-2010Emigration Rate Immigrants to United StatesSending Country Population Rates are projected to move toward anultimate rateU.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU12
Projected Rates of Emigration from Sending Countries to the United States: 2012 to 2060(Migrants per 1,000 population)Total1.4Non‐Spanish Caribbean andSub‐Saharan AfricaEurope, Central Asia,and the Middle EastSpanish Caribbean andLatin AmericaAsia and Pacific 3520402045205020552060U.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU13
Calculating ProjectedForeign-Born Immigrants Projected immigrants to the United States werecalculated for each year by multiplying theprojected emigration rate from sending countriesby the projected population within each region.ProjectedProjectedProjected *EmigrationSendingU.S.RatePopulationImmigrantsU.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU14
Foreign-Born Emigration Projections Rates of emigration from the United Statesare estimated using a residual method anddata from Census 2000 and the 2010American Community Survey (ACS) The rates were produced and applied byage, sex, Hispanic origin, and arrivalcohort Immigrants who arrived in the past 0-9 years Immigrants who arrived in the past 10-19 years Immigrants who arrived 20 or more years agoU.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU15
Calculating Projected Foreign-BornEmigrants Foreign-born emigration from the UnitedStates was projected by applying theemigration rates to the foreign-bornpopulation The same set of rates, by age, sex,Hispanic origin, and arrival cohort, wereused for all projected yearsU.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU16
Net Native-Born Migration Projections Comprised of migration of the native-bornpopulation, including migration fromPuerto Rico to the United States Current estimates of net native-bornmigration are held constant in theprojected yearsU.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU17
Net International Migration: 2012 to 2060(In 2020302040U.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU18
Net International Migrants by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2012 and 2060(Percent of total net international migrants)2012206040.0 40.733.224.118.615.7 15.610.11.0 panicAsianNon‐HispanicOther RacesHispanicU.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAUOther races includes American Indian or Alaska Native, NativeHawaiian or Other Pacific Islander, and Two or More Races.19
Main FindingsThe U.S. population is projected to: Grow more slowly Continue aging Become more diverseU.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU20
United States Population: 1990 to 2060Numbers (in millions)600500400282300The population is projected toincrease from 314 million in 2012 to420 million in 2060, reaching 400million in 2051.4004203092502001000199020002010U.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU2020203020402050Red columns represent populationestimates for 1990‐2011.206021
Annual Percent Change in Total Population: 2012 to . Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU22
Births, Deaths, and Net International Migration: 2012 and 2060(Numbers in hsDeathsNet International MigrationU.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU23
Natural Increase (Births ‐ Deaths) and Net International Migration: 2012 to 2060Numbers (in thousands)1,800Natural IncreaseNet International Migration1,6001,4001,2001,000800Net international migration isprojected to overtake naturalincrease as the primary driver ofpopulation growth in 4204820522056U.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU242060
Population by Age and Sex: 2012Age (years)100 sBaby Boomers210Population(in millions)123U.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU25
Population by Age and Sex: 2035Age (years)100 sBaby Boomers210Population(in millions)123U.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU26
Population by Age and Sex: 2060Age (years)100 sBaby Boomers210Population(in millions)123U.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU27
Population by Age and Sex: 2012 and 2060Age (years)100 esFemales2012 Population 314 Million2060 Population 420 Million210Population(in millions)123U.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU28
Population Under 18 Years and 65 Years and Over: 1990 to 2060Under 18 yearsPopulation (in millions)10065 years and over908070The population 65 years andover is projected to becomelarger than the populationunder 18 years in 2056.6050403020100199020002010U.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU2020203020402050Dashed lines represent populationestimates for 1990‐2011.206029
Distribution of Population by Age: 2012 and 2060(Percent of total population)20122060635724222114Under 18 years18 to 64 years65 years and overU.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU30
Dependency Ratios for the United States: 1990 to 2060Youth Dependency6261Old‐Age 199020002010202020302040205020602128Total dependency ((Population under age 18 Population aged 65 years and over) / (Population aged 18 to 64 years)) * 100.Old‐age dependency (Population aged 65 years and over / Population aged 18 to 64 years) * 100.Youth dependency (Population under age 18 / Population aged 18 to 64 years) * 100.U.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU31
Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2012 and 2060(Percent of total population)2012206078696343311317151.2 1.5WhitealoneBlackalone5.1AIANalone8.20.2 0.3AsianaloneNHPIalone2.46.4Two orMore RacesAIAN American Indian and Alaska Native; NHPI Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific IslanderNon‐HispanicHispanic (of any race)White AloneU.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU32
Projections of the Percent Minority: 2012 to 2060Percent of total population100Total population90Population under 18 yearsThe minority population isprojected to become thenumerical majority of thepopulation under 18 yearsin 2018.8070605040The minority population isprojected to become thenumerical majority of the totalpopulation in 4820522056U.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU332060
Median Age by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2012 and eTwo orNon‐Hispanic HispanicMore Races White alone (of any race)AIAN American Indian and Alaska Native; NHPI Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific IslanderU.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU34
More InformationCensus Bureau Projections nsContact Information:Jennifer OrtmanJennifer.M.Ortman@census.gov301-763-2428U.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU35
1989 1999 2009 2019 2029 2039 2049 2059 Total Non‐Hispanic White Non‐Hispanic Black Non‐Hispanic AIAN Non‐Hispanic API Hispanic Total Fertility Rates by Race and Hispanic Origin: 1989 to 2060 Year Total Non‐ Hispanic White Non‐ Hispanic Black Non‐ Hispanic AIAN Non‐
Table 34: Projections of the total population, 2012-2032 according to the high projections scenario . 100 Table 35: Projections of the total population, 2012-2032 according to the medium projections scenario . 101 Table 36: Projections of the total population, 2012-2032 according to the low projections scenario 103
La première partie du cours est une introduction aux projections de population. Voici les objectifs de la première partie : Présenter les concepts fondamentaux liés aux projections de population dont la fécondité, la mortalité et la migration. Expliquer l’utilité des projections de population dans le processus décisionnel.
to-date information on water demand and supply and related information pertaining to the LPP. 2. Demand Projections The new population projections and water use data will update the demand estimates set forth in Study Report 19. 2.1. Population Projections The Institute prepared baseline, high and low population projections to address the .
Victoria in Future 2019 (VIF2019) is the official state government projection of population and households. Projections are used by decision makers in government, business and the community to understand the growing and changing population. Population projections are estimates of the future size, distribution and composition of the population.
Projections of Education Statistics to 2022 . is the 41st report . in a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and postsecondary degree-granting . institutions. This report provides revisions of projections shown in . Projections of Education Statistics to 2021. and . projections of enrollment .File Size: 2MBPage Count: 194Explore furtherYouTubewww.youtube.comNewsmax – Breaking News News Videos Politics, Health .www.newsmax.comFox News - Breaking News Updates Latest News Headlines .www.foxnews.comSingle sign-on for education Cleverclever.comWelcome to Costco Wholesalewww.costco.comRecommended to you based on what's popular Feedback
Projections of Education Statistics to 2026 . is the 45th report . in a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting postsecondary institutions. This report provides revisions of projections shown in . Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 and projections of enrollment, graduates .File Size: 1MBPage Count: 177
jurisdictions (23counties and Baltimore City). Statistics on actual total and public -school enrollment for 2007-2017 are also included. The public-school enrollment projections utilize the Maryland Department of Planning’s population projections by age and sex for each jurisdiction. The popu lation projections are used to derive school -age
jurisdictions (23 counties and Baltimore City). Statistics on actual total and public -school enrollment for 2008-2018 are also included. The public-school enrollment projections utilize the Maryland Department of Planning’s population projections by age and sex for each jurisdiction. The pop ulation projections are used to derive school -age
