Joint Targeting Cycle And Collateral Damage Estimation .
Joint Targeting CycleandCollateral Damage EstimationMethodology (CDM)General Counsel10 Nov 2009ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF000001Briefingis Unclassified//FOUODerived From: CJCSI 3160.01, CJCSI 3122.06C
Agenda 2BackgroundReferencesTargeting and Collateral Damage– Definitions– Targeting Overview– Targeting Cycle key elements– Collateral Damage EstimationSummaryQuestions/DiscussionACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000002UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
References DOD Directive 2311.01, 9 May 2006, “DoD Law of War Program” CJCSI 5810.01, “Implementation of the DOD Law of War Program” CJCSI 3160.01, “No-Strike and Collateral Damage EstimationMethodology ” CJCSI 3122.06, “Sensitive Target Approval and Review (STAR)Process” Joint Publication 3-60, 13 April 2007, “Joint Targeting” DIA Instruction 3000.002, 15 July 2008, “U.S./Allied Targeting Analysis” JTCG-ME Publication, 61 JTCG/ME-05-4, 29 September 2008”,Collateral Damage Estimation (CDE) Table Development” JTCG-ME Accredited CDE Tables, 9 January 20093ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000003UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Joint Targeting Definitions and Processes4ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000004UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Targeting and Fires Definitions Targeting: the process of selecting and prioritizing targets and matchingthe appropriate response to them, considering operational requirementsand capabilities– The purpose of targeting is to integrate and synchronize fires into jointoperations– Targeting supports the process of linking desired effects of fires toactions and tasks at the joint force component level Fires: the use of weapon systems to create a specific lethal or nonlethaleffect on a target (JP 1-02)5ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000005UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Target DefinitionTarget: An entity or object considered for possibleengagement or other ityIdentified for possible action to support thecommander’s objective, guidance, andintentFunctionSystemEntityIndividual6Behavior ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000006UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Joint Targeting Cycle (JTC)End State andCommander’sObjectivesWhat is our goal?AssessmentAre weaccomplishingour goal?Componenttargeting andengagementsJOINTTARGETINGCYCLETarget Developmentand PrioritizationWhat targets must we effectto achieve our goal ?Best means to effectthe targetMission Planningand Force ExecutionCapabilities AnalysisApprovalCommander’s Decisionand Force AssignmentACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 0000077 Designed to provide a means to support achievement of JFC’s objectivesUNCLASSIFIED//FOUO . JP 3-60
End State and Commander’s Objectives Guidance:End State andCommander’sObjectivesTarget Developmentand PrioritizationAssessmentJOINTTARGETINGCYCLEMission Planningand Force ExecutionCapabilities Analysis– Ground Rules/Policies– Establishes Scope/Restrictions– Drives subsequent phases ofthe targeting cycle Comes From:– Pres/SECDEF, CoCom, JFC– Law of Armed Conflict– Rules of EngagementCommander’s Decisionand Force AssignmentWhat is our goal?8Provides the critical link to Military NecessityACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000008UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Target Development and PrioritizationEnd State andCommander’sObjectivesTarget Developmentand PrioritizationAssessmentJOINTTARGETINGCYCLEMission Planningand Force ExecutionCapabilities Analysis Target Vetting– Collective effort of the IntelligenceCommunity– Examines Target Identification, location,function, description,significance, critical elements,target expectation, functionalcharacterization/collateralobjects of concern, intelgain/loss– IC votes and provides advice oneach targetCommander’s Decisionand Force Assignment9 Target Validation– Compliance with commander’sobjectives– Law Of War (LOW)/Law Of ArmedWhat targets must we engageConflict (LOAC) and Rules ofto achieve our goal ?Engagement (ROE) Target’s relevancy within thetargetsystemACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF000009UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Joint Targeting Coordination Board (JTCB)Target Nomination:“Here’s a possible target”Intel Review:“Does the intelligence support?”Target Listing:“Which CDR’s objective (s) apply?”TDN ReviewJTC Phase 3, 4, 5Target Review:“Is this target developed?”10Effects and Legal Review:“Will target engagement further the CDR’sobjectives?”ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000010UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Capabilities AnalysisEnd State andCommander’sObjectivesTarget Developmentand PrioritizationAssessmentJOINTTARGETINGCYCLEMission Planningand Force ExecutionCapabilities AnalysisCommander’s Decisionand Force AssignmentBest means to engage the target11 Evaluate available capabilities vs.desired effects to determine options– Effectiveness & efficiency of forces– Estimate the effects of attacks(kinetic & non-kinetic)– Weighs available forces w/ COAs– Inline with JFC’s Objectives Weaponeering:– Weapon/system to achieve effect– Efficient & effective use of resources– Objectives and desired effects Collateral Damage Estimation:– Unintended or incidental damage topersons or objects not the intendedtarget and are not lawful targetsACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000011UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Cdr’s Decision and Force Assignment Critical step in transitioning plansto executionEnd State andCommander’sObjectivesTarget Developmentand PrioritizationAssessment Review previous steps forexecution Validate target list changesJOINTTARGETINGCYCLEMission Planningand Force ExecutionCapabilities AnalysisCommander’s Decisionand Force AssignmentApproval12 Consolidate target developmentand capabilities analysis results Collateral damage decisions andStrike Approvals– Verify authorities—seek higherapproval Assign responsibilities forengagementACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000012UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Mission Planning and Force Execution Detailed planning conducted by tacticallevel forces- Based on commander’s guidance/orders- Facilitated by open access to plannersat the operational & strategic level Execution is continually monitored for- How the adversary responds/changes- Achievement of effects & Cdr’s objectives- Performance of forces- Changes in the operational environmentEnd State andCommander’sObjectivesTarget Developmentand PrioritizationAssessmentMission Planningand Force ExecutionJOINTTARGETINGCYCLECapabilities AnalysisCommander’s Decisionand Force AssignmentFINDASSESSComponent targeting andengagements13FIXDYNAMICTARGETINGENGAGETRACKACLU DRONES JOINT STAFFTARGET 000013UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Combat Assessment Measures progress toward achievingthe commander’s objectives– MOP / MOEEnd State andCommander’sObjectivesTarget Developmentand PrioritizationAssessmentJOINTTARGETINGCYCLEMission Planningand Force ExecutionCapabilities AnalysisCommander’s Decisionand Force AssignmentAre we accomplishing our goal?14 Provides:– Status– Benchmark for validating actions– Munitions effects assessment– Collateral Damage Assessment Generally the level at which aspecified operation, task, or action isplanned and executed should be thelevel at which such activity isassessed.ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000014UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Collateral Damage Estimation (CDE) Commanders must conduct a proper proportionality analysis to use the amount offorce required to achieve a direct and concrete military advantage CDE Methodology provides the process to predict and mitigate collateral damagefrom conventional, non-nuclear kinetic strikes– Facilitates risk estimation and mitigation– Identifies target engagement’s sensitivity and associated risks– Required on every target in accordance with Rules of Engagement– Target is weaponeered to balance accomplishing the mission with the risks toU.S. forces and the risk for collateral damage15ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000015UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
CDE Methodology - Technical FactsAll Munitions Technical Data is based on:– The Joint Munitions EffectivenessManual (JMEM) Weapon System(JWS)– Data approved by the Joint TechnicalCoordinating Group/MunitionsEffectiveness (JTCG/ME) Data updated every 6 months– The CDE Methodology does notaccount for:– Weapon Malfunction– Operational Delivery Errors– Altered tactics– Unknown Transient NonCombatant Personnel and/orProperty16ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000016UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
The 5 Basic Questions of CDECDE methodology is five questions to be answered before engaging a target:1. Can I PID the object I want to affect?2. Are there protected or collateral objects, civilian or noncombatantpersonnel, involuntary human shields, or significant environmentalconcerns within the effects range of the weapon I would like to use toattack the target?3. Can I mitigate damage to those collateral concerns by attacking the targetwith a different weapon or with a different method of engagement, yet stillaccomplish the mission?4. If not, how many civilians and noncombatants do I think will be injured orkilled by the attack?5. Are the collateral effects of my attack excessive in relation to the expectedmilitary advantage gained and do I need to elevate this decision to the nextlevel of command to attack the target based on the ROE in effect?17ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000017UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Risk Management Commanders are responsible to evaluate and balance mission requirements andthreat to friendly forces while taking all reasonable steps to mitigate the potentialfor Collateral Damage. The CDE Methodology codifies and standardizes the collateral damage estimateprocess supporting the Commander’s Evaluation of Risk in the Military DecisionMaking Process (MDMP).Collateral Damage18Mission/Force ProtectionACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000018UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
CDM ProcessGuide19ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000019UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Summary of CDE in Joint Targeting Never before has a nation taken such measures and resources to reduce the likelihood ofcivilian casualties– Our processes and procedures are rigorous– The methodology is derived from physics based computer modeling backed up byweapons testing data and direct combat observations– Estimates are applied by commanders exercising informed judgment to mitigate civiliancasualties while balancing their responsibility to accomplish the mission while defendingthemselves and their forces20ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000020UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Questions/Discussion21ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000021UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Back-Up(Vignette)22ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000022UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Target Value Analysis Definitions High Value Target: A target the enemy commander requires for thesuccessful completion of the mission. The loss of high-value targetswould be expected to seriously degrade important enemy functions. High Payoff Target: A high value target whose loss to the enemy willsignificantly contribute to the success of the friendly course of action.High-payoff targets are those high-value targets that must be acquiredand successfully attacked for the success of the friendly commander’smission. Time Sensitive Target: A joint force commander designated targetrequiring immediate response because it is a highly lucrative, fleetingtarget of opportunity or it poses (or will soon pose) a danger to friendlyforces.23ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000023UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
5 CDE 1: Target Validation / Initial Assessment CDE 2: General / Target Size Assessment CDE 3: Weaponeering Assessment4 CDE 4: Refined Assessment CDE 5: Casualty Assessment3CD RiskManagement2MISSION RISKRisk Management & CDE1CDE LevelStructural DamageNONONONOYESCasualtiesNONONONOYESTactical Restrictions24ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000024NONEWeaponWeapon/FuseWeapon/Fuse/Delivery HeadingUNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Lawful Military Objectives Lawful Military Objectives– Contribute to the enemy’s warfighting/war sustaining effort and itsdestruction would constitute a definite military advantage– Four elements that allow targets to be lawful military objectives: NatureEach target is assessed holistically Locationon these elements Purpose Use25Critical Analytical Component in CDE MethodologyACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000025UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Positive Identification“It is an inherent responsibility of all commanders, observers, air battlemanagers, weapons directors, attack controllers, weapons systems operators,intelligence analysts, and targeting personnel to (CJCSI 3160.01):– Establish Positive Identification (PID) and to accurately locate targetsconsistent with current military objectives and mission specific Rules ofEngagement.– PID is defined as the reasonable certainty that a functionally and geospatiallydefined object of attack is a legitimate military target in accordance with theLaw of War and applicable Rules of Engagement.– Identify potential collateral concerns prior to munitions release and targetengagement (provide function and geospatial delimitations if able)– Apply the Collateral Damage Methodology (CDM) with due diligence tomission objectives, force protection, and collateral damage.”26ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000026UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Dual-Use Targets characterized as having both a military and civilian purpose/functionare considered dual-use. In most cases, dual-use Targets consist of facilities/structures associated withproviding support to the civilian population and the military effort (eg. seniorgovernmental level command and control, media centers, public utilities) Commanders are responsible to determine the predominant functionality ofLOW Protected Structures, based on current intelligence, and decide if thetarget is dual-use or not. ROE provides the authorizations and prohibitions regarding targeting DualUse Facilities. Regardless of the ROE in effect, civilian personnel working within theboundary of dual-use targets must be considered as noncombatant casualtiesfor the purposes of casualty estimation27ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000027UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
No-Strike Policy Combatant Commanders identify, develop, maintain, and distribute tosubordinate and supporting commands a list of No-Strike Objects for eachCountry within Area of Responsibility (AOR) and each OPLAN/OPORDAreas of Operation (AO) The National Intelligence Community will support and assist the COCOMswith No-Strike Object research, development, and production; validateadditions to COCOM generated No-Strike Lists (NSL) A NSL is a list of all identified objects within a specified geographic area(Country or AO) functionally characterized as non-combatant / civilian innature.Updated and disseminated daily28ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000028UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Categories of Collateral (No Strike) Objects Category 1:– Diplomatic Facilities– Religious/Cultural/Historical– Non-Governmental Orgs.– Medical Facilities– Public Education Facilities– Civilian Refugee Camps– Prisoner of War (POW) Camps– Facilities with Environmental Concerns– Dams and dikes29Category 2:– Non-Military Billeting (Housing,Hotels/Motels)– Civilian Meeting Places (Arenas,Theaters, Parks, Stadiums, Markets,Convention Centers)– Public Utilities (Power, Water,Electric, Gas, Fire & Police Stations,Banks, etc.)– Agricultural Storage or ProcessingFacilities– Facilities whose functionality isunknownACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000029UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Initial Collateral Damage Estimate (CDE)STARTBoundaryPIDLOW/ROE dSTOPCHA Assessment ProcessCDE 1Validates targetsNatureLocationPurposeUse30Casualty EstimationACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000030UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
If Collateral Concern isOutInofthetheCHA,CHA,CDECDE HIGHLowCDE 1 CERCDE Level 1Measured from TargetFacility BoundaryCDE 1 CER*CDE 1Collateral Hazard Area (CHA)Dominant Hazard Fragmentation to Standing Personnel31ACLU EffectsDRONESJOINT STAFF 000031*CER CollateralRadiusUNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
CDE Level 2CDE 1 CERCDE 2 Low, PGM-UnitaryCER measured fromindividual aimpointsCDE 2 HighCDE 1 CERContinue to CDE 3CDE 1CollateralHazard Area (CHA)Collateral Concerns32Dominant Hazard Fragmentation to Standing PersonnelACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000032UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
CDE Level 3CDE 2 LowCDE 3 Low(Mitigated)CDE 1 CERContinue to CDE 4CER measured fromindividual aimpointsCDE 3 High(Un-Mitigated)CDE 1 CERCDE 3 High(Mitigated)CDE 1CollateralHazard Area (CHA)Collateral ConcernsDominant Hazard Fragmentation to Standing Personnel (Unmitigated)Ejecta to Standing Personnel (Mitigated)33ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000033UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
CDE 2 LowCDE 3 Low(Mitigated)CDE 1 CERCDE Level 4CER measured fromindividual aimpointsCDE 4 LowCDE 1 CERSTOPCDE 1CollateralHazard Area (CHA)Collateral ConcernsDominant Hazard Blast to Structures34ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000034UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
CDE Level 5 35Casualty Estimation is not an exact science—pattern of life assistsThere are no precise means to predict non-combatant demographicsCombatant Commanders are responsible to develop estimated non-combatantdemographic factors–Factors for Day and Night are based on socialized cultural norms for theapplicable AOR/CountryCasualty Estimates are computed based on three key factors–Affected Area of collateral concerns–Estimated Population Density of the effected collateral concerns–Casualty Factor (Multiplier)ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000035UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
CDE Level 5 (cont’d)RestaurantTarget (Bridge)CDE 3 (Mitigated) CERCDE 3 (Un-Mitigated) CERGarage1.00.25Inner Annulus½ CDE 3 (Mitigated) CEROuter Annulus361.0Outdoor CollateralConcernSoccer StadiumACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000036UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Population Density Tables37ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000037UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Sensitive Target Approval and Review Process(STAR)38 The CDE Methodology (CDM) supports the identification of “sensitivetargets” Sensitive Targets are those whose engagement present:–the potential for damage and/or injury to non-combatant propertyand persons,–potential political consequences,–or other significant effects estimated to exceed predetermined,situation-specific threshold criteria. Sensitive Targets are normally those assessed as CDE 5 High or thosedesignated by the President or Secretary of Defense whose engagementpresent unacceptable strategic risk. Sensitive (STAR) Targets require approval by either President or Secretaryof Defense.ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000038UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
CDE in the Joint Targeting CyclePlansEnd State andCommander’sObjectivesAssessmentCOLLATERAL DAMAGEASSESSMENTJOINTIntelligenceTarget Developmentand PrioritizationTARGETINGCYCLEMission Planningand Force ExecutionOperationsCapabilities AnalysisCommander’s Decisionand Force AssignmentMethods to prevent civilian casualties permeates the cycle39ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000039UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Mitigating Weapon EffectsEffectDelay FuzingFrag. Blast ShieldingDeliveryHeadingAimpointOffset Debris Pen. &Cratering CBR Delivery Error Thermal40ProximityFuzing ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000040UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Weapon Effects& Risks41ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000041UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
CDE Program of Instruction421.CDE Methodology Program of Instruction – Overview(1 hr )2.CDE Methodology - Introduction(3 hrs)3.Measuring and Mitigating Weapons’ Effects(4 hrs)4.CDE Level 1 – Target Validation / Initial Assessment(2 hrs)5.CDE Level 2 – General / Target Size Assessment(2 hrs)6.CDE Level 3 – Weaponeering Assessment(2 hrs)7.CDE Level 4 – Refined Assessment(2 hrs)8.CDE Level 5 – Casualty Estimation / Assessment(4 hrs)9.CDE Automation – JADOCS CDE Wizard(4 hrs)10. Practical Exercises(8 hrs)11. CDE Methodology - Review(4 hrs)12. Examination(4 hrs)ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000042UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Resource Allocation – Find/Fix versus EngageBetter intelligence and proportional precisionengagement allows us to better discriminatevalid military objectives from civilian populationEngageFindFind20th CenturyFix43Engage21st CenturyFixACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000043UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
USCENTCOM Strike Approval Authorities Rules of Engagement give the appropriate permissions to approve strikes based onCollateral Damage Estimation (CDE) call and target type Approvals, Rules of Engagement, and Collateral Damage Estimation (CDE) forstrikes in Afghanistan are driven by nationality of the selected strike platform:– United States Rules of Engagement apply to all U.S. assets when used tostrike targets– Other Rules of Engagement apply to all non-US assets when used to striketargets44ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000044UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Collaborative CDE ProcessSTART:(Target Identified)Communicationlink establishedwith effected unitsISAF/USFOR-ATARGETS RGETS Cell*CAOC*CAOCTARGETS CellCollateral DamageEstimation AnalysisCompleteCommanderbriefed on strikeCommander’sapproval relayedto all ach back toIntelligence Community(IC) when necessaryACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000045*CAOC Combined Air and Space Operations CenterUNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Mission Planning and Force Execution46ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000046UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Dynamic Targeting Cycle47ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000047UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
CJCSI 3122.06, “Sensitive Target Approval and Review (STAR) Process” Joint Publication 3-60, 13 April 2007, “Joint Targeting” DIA Instruction 3000.002, 15 July 2008, “U.S./Allied Targeting Analysis” JTCG-ME Publication, 61 JTCG/ME-05-4, 29 September 200
Jan 31, 2013 · iii SUMMARY OF CHANGES REVISION OF JOINT PUBLICATION 3-60 DATED 13 APRIL 2007 Reorganizes discussion of targets, target ing, the joint target cycle, and targeting duties and responsibilities for readability. Moves discussions on following from appendices into Chapters I, “Understanding Targets and Targeting,” through Chapter III, “Joint ForceFile Size: 856KB
REFERENCES 45 ANNEXES 47 1 Extracts from regulatory frameworks and related collateral and asset requirements 47 2 High-level overview of eligibility requirements for collateral 54 3 Overview of marketable and non-marketable assets within the frameworks of central banks 56 4 Overview of collateral requirements within regulatory frameworks 66
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