Nuclear Energy Economics And Policy Analysis

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Nuclear Energy Economics andPolicy AnalysisFebruary 3, 20042/4/0422.812 Nuclear Energy Economicsand Policy Analysis11

2/4/0422.812 Nuclear Energy Economicsand Policy Analysis3World Primary Energy ProductionWorld Primary Energy Production199215(Quads 10 BTU)(commercial)Petroleum2001(Quads 1015 BTU)136.5 (39%)155.3 (38%)Coal89.3 (25%)96.0 (24%)Natural gas76.9 (22%)93.5 (23%)Hydro22.9 (6.5%)26.7 (6.6%)Nuclear21.2 (6.0%)26.4 (6.5%)Wind, geothermal, solar, wood,and waste2.01 ( 1%)3.1 ( 1%)351.1 (100%)403.4 (100%)TOTALU.S. Energy Information Administration: 22.812 Nuclear Energy Economicsand Policy Analysis42

World net electricity generation by fuel type, 2000Billions of kilowatt hours(2000)Thermal9318.4 (63.8%)Hydro2625.8 (18.0%)Nuclear2434.2 (16.7%)238.7 (1.6%)Geothermal14617.0 (100%)TOTALU.S. Energy Information Administration: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/table63.htmlAbout 440 nuclear plants provide nearly 17% of world’s electricity.2/4/0422.812 Nuclear Energy Economicsand Policy AnalysisCountryFranceCountries withhighest dependenceon nuclear power(2000)Source: International AtomicEnergy Agency2/4/04Number ofnuclear plants595Nuclear percentage ofelectricity inland432.11930.6927.6United Kingdom3521.9Czech Republic520.1United States10419.8Russian Federation2314.9Canada1411.8WORLD TOTAL43816.0South KoreaGermanySpain22.812 Nuclear Energy Economicsand Policy Analysis63

Source: International Atomic Energy Agency2/4/0422.812 Nuclear Energy Economicsand Policy Analysis7 Relatively few newnuclear plants areunder constructionConstruction beganon 6 new plants in2002 (5 in India, onein DPRK)4 plants were shutdown in 2002Source: International Atomie Energy Agency2/4/0422.812 Nuclear Energy Economicsand Policy Analysis84

EIA Projection of World Nuclear Power Growth through 20252/4/0422.812 Nuclear Energy Economicsand Policy Analysis9How did we get to this point? Some hypotheses:––––2/4/04.22.812 Nuclear Energy Economicsand Policy Analysis105

Key obstacles to future nuclearpower development High costs and financial risks of nuclearpower plants Public concerns over nuclear power plantsafety and siting Nuclear waste disposal Nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism2/4/0422.812 Nuclear Energy Economicsand Policy Analysis1122.812/ESD.163J Nuclear Energy Economics and Policy Analysis (S'04): Preliminary 2425262/4/04DateWed Feb 3Mon Feb 9Wed Feb 11Mon Feb 16Tue Feb 17Wed Feb 18Mon Feb 23Wed Feb. 25Mon Mar 1Wed Mar 3Fri Mar 5Mon Mar 8Wed Mar 10Mon Mar 15Wed Mar 17Mon Mar 22Wed Mar 24Mon Mar 29Wed Mar 31Mon Apr 5Wed Apr 7Mon Apr 12Wed Apr 15Mon Apr 19Wed Apr 21Mon Apr 26Wed Apr 28Mon May 3Wed May 5Mon May10Wed May 12TopicIntroduction.Balance sheets and income statements. The time value of money. Discrete and continuous compounding.Time value of money mechanics (contd.)VACATIONNo ClassThe effects of inflation. Calculation of capital costsDepreciation, capital recovery, and taxesDepreciation, capital recovery, and taxes (II)Levelized cost of product. Carrying chargesMethods for project evaluation(Makeup Class) Methods for project evaluation (II): Nuclear power economicsReview sessionQuiz#1Scale economies. Investing under uncertainty.Nuclear fuel cycles (I)VACATIONVACATIONNuclear fuel cycles (II): Material balances and simple cost modelsNuclear fuel cycles (III): Enrichment case studyNuclear fuel cycles (IV): MOX case studyQuiz #2Nuclear theft & nuclear sabotageNuclear safeguards, export controls, and the Non-Proliferation TreatyVACATIONManaging nuclear safety risksSpent fuel/high level waste management (I)Spent fuel/high level waste management (II): Once-through vs. closed cyclesRisk perceptions, risk communication & public attitudesGlobal nuclear growth scenariosTerm Project PresentationsTerm Project Presentations22.812 Nuclear Energy Economicsand Policy Analysis126

Some important distinctions Macroeconomics– How national economies work; how theinternational economy works Microeconomics– Behavior of firms and marketsEngineering economics (managerial economics)– Analyzing the performance of real investments2/4/0422.812 Nuclear Energy Economicsand Policy Analysis13Investment analysis What is an investment?– “The act of incurring an immediate cost in theexpectation of future rewards.”– Examples: Purchasing equipmentBuilding a plantLaying in a stock of goods for later salePaying tuitionA superbowl adR&D– Two essential features of any investment Time Risk2/4/0422.812 Nuclear Energy Economicsand Policy Analysis147

Another important distinction Engineering economics– Predicting the consequences of alternativefuture courses of action Accounting– Establishing a precise historical record of pasteconomic activity2/4/0422.812 Nuclear Energy Economicsand Policy Analysis15Key concepts for next class Balance sheet– Assets, liabilities, net worth Income statement (profit-and-loss statement)– Revenues, cost of goods sold, operating expenses,operating income, net income, etc. Cash flow statement Financial ratios– Return on assets– Return on investment– Liquidity ratios2/4/0422.812 Nuclear Energy Economicsand Policy Analysis168

Nuclear Energy Economics and Policy Analysis Key obstacles to future nuclear power development High costs and financial risks of nuclear Nuclear Energy Economics and Policy Analysis (S'04): Preliminary Schedule 2/4/04 22.812 12 Class Date Topic 1 Wed Introduction. 2 3 Wed Mon F

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