Overview Of The Solar Energy Industry And Supply Chain

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Overview of the Solar Energy Industry andSupply Chainhttp://www.bluegreenalliance.org/cemcPrepared for the BlueGreen AllianceBy Stone & AssociatesJanuary, 2011

IntroductionThis Overview of the Solar Energy Industry and Supply Chain was prepared for theBlueGreen Alliance Foundation’s Clean Energy Manufacturing Center (CEMC) as thefirst step in identifying opportunities to increase the base of domestic suppliers in theU.S. solar energy industry. The overview includes general information about the solarenergy market as well as current installed capacity and expected growth, but itsprimary focus is the solar energy supply chain. Building the domestic supply chain forthe solar energy industry has the potential to create jobs while accelerating thetransition to a clean energy economy.The BlueGreen Alliance Foundation (BGAF) is a non-profit, 501 (c) (3) organization.BGAF conducts research and educates the public and media about solutions toenvironmental challenges that create economic opportunities for the American people.The CEMC seeks to identify job creation opportunities in the U.S. wind and solar energysectors and works with manufacturers, public officials, and others to grow thedomestic base of suppliers in the clean energy manufacturing economy.This document is based solely on secondary research to develop a set of industryinformation that can be used to help U.S. manufacturers participate in solar industrygrowth. The document is a starting point to assist in determining where and how tofocus resources to maximize employment growth in the solar industry. Theassessment of job creation opportunities in section one is preliminary, and requiresadditional primary research to validate and elaborate.2

Section Topics1.Summary Assessment of Job Creation Opportunities in SolarIncludes PV manufacturing opportunities by supply chain component2.Solar Technologies – Installed Capacity and GrowthOverview of PV, CSP, and SHC3.Photovoltaic (PV) Global Supply Chain and Production4.Trends in PV Production, Supply and DemandNational incentives for U.S. production facilities and competitive advantage in aglobal market5.Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)Includes list of manufacturers by supply chain component6.Solar Heating and Cooling (SHC)Includes list of U.S. Manufacturers7.Solar Industry Employment3

1. Summary Assessment of Job Creation Opportunities in SolarTopics Covered In This Section Summary of Job Creation Opportunities by Solar Segment Assessment of Job Creation Opportunities within PVby Supply Chain ComponentThis section shares a set of preliminary hypotheses,to be confirmed with additional primary research.4

Summary of Job Creation Opportunities by Solar SegmentPhotovoltaicSolar ThermalSolar Heating and CoolingCurrent US Employment (2010): few thousandProjected US Employment (2016): 13KDistributedPhotovoltaicCurrent US Employment (2010): 55 KProjected US Employment (2016): 197 KLargest employment potentialCentral /UtilityLimited employment potential (unless demandincreases)Concentrated Solar PowerCurrent US Employment (2010): few thousandProjected US Employment (2016): 20KStrong competitive position, but limitedemployment potentialEmployment Projections depend Heavily on Demand Assumptions/ProjectionsNote: Employment estimates are based on sources cited in employment section. Numbers aboveinclude only direct and indirect employment. Projections are probably overstated (Navigant Consulting)because they do not take into account foreign competition for manufacturing value added.5

Summary of Job Creation Opportunities by Solar Segment (continued)PhotovoltaicDistributedCentral /UtilitySolar ThermalPV – DistributedSolar Heating and Cooling Low penetration – significant opportunity (only 29Kresidential installations in 2009) Incentives now beginning to spark growth High jobs per MW, driven by substitution of labor andequipment for fuel, and installation work on site Opportunities for job growth: Installation/construction as US demand grows Some in manufacturing, particularly in modules, thoughlow cost countries are increasing share of manufacturing US producers may need to focus on niche technologies,such as thin film where they have been strong Low penetration – significant opportunity 90% of current installed base is poolheating Market recently revived by local andfederal incentives Employment numbers, current andprojected, are very low Opportunities for job growth: Installation as US demand is spurred bygovernment incentivesPV – UtilityCSP Rapid growth High jobs per MW, driven by substitution of labor andequipment for fuel (but lower than distributed) Opportunities for job growth: Installation/construction as US demand grows (butconsiderably less than distributed) Some in manufacturing, particularly in modules, thoughlow cost countries are increasing share of manufacturing US producers may need to focus on niche technologies,such as thin film where they have been strong 95% of global capacity is in the US Growth slowed after installations in 1980s Major resurgence underway: Projects under development representover 20X current capacity US has unique strength in this technologydue to sunlight in Southwest Job potential per MW is considerablylower than PV6

Assessment of Job Creation Opportunities Within PV By SupplyChain ComponentSupply ChainJobs PerMWTrendsOpportunities(Residential)Operations &MaintenanceSystem Integration,Installation,Construction0.3 (FTEs)Small employmentLimited opportunity16.8Tied to end-market – will grow asdemand increases, driven bypolicyPolicies to stimulate demand shouldcreate jobs in this segmentGrowing in response to globaldemand, but increasingly growthcaptured by low cost countriesUphill battle. US producers may need tofocus on niche technologies, such as thinfilm or ribbon. Module plants are morelikely than cell plants to be located nearthe customer in North AmericaHas been area of US strength, butnow shifting to verticallyintegrated players in low costcountriesDifficult to compete against ChinaInsufficient informationInsufficient InformationModules & Cells11.0WafersOther Components(BoS)3.07

2. Solar Technologies – Installed Capacity & GrowthTopics Covered In This Section Overview of Solar Technologies Installed Capacity by Technology and Application Annual Installations and Growth Cost Comparisons with Other Energy Sources8

Overview – The Solar Industry Can Be Segmented ByTechnology & ApplicationApplicationDistributed Located at the user Residential, commercial/industrial Can be tied to the grid ornot connected to the gridCentral/UtilityPhotovoltaic (PV)Solar Thermal (ST) Generates electricity from the sunthrough semi-conductors Uses the sun to heat a working fluidPV – on the roof Solar Heating & Cooling(SHC) Photons in sunlight are absorbedby semiconductors, causingelectrons to move. This current iselectricity. Electricity is converted from DC toAC and is either usedimmediately, stored in a batteryor sent back to the utility gridPV- Utility These low and mediumtemperature collectors do notgenerate electricity Heats liquid which is used to heator cool a home or building (e.g.;solar water heaters, solar poolheaters, and solar cooling*) Note: often the term “solar thermal” onlyincludes these non-electricity generatingtechnologies (i.e. does NOT include CSP)*Solar cooling uses heat to create airconditioningConcentrating Solar Power(CSP) Concentrated sunlight heats a fluidwhich drives a turbine to generateelectricity Generates Electricity9

Photovoltaic – Utility ScaleSource: The Sun Rises on Nevada Report10

Distributed Solar Capacity is Predominantly Photovoltaic &Some Solar Heating/Cooling, while Utility Capacity is CSP & PVUS Installed Solar Capacity – tialDistributedResidentialTotalComment/SourcePV (MW-dc)1099325711,612SEIA ’09;Off -grid est. NRELCSP (MW-ac)*431----431SEIA ‘09SHC (MW-th)**--****** 25,000SEIA ‘09* Roughly 15% loss in converting DC to AC**MW-thermal is a measure of thermal power NOT electrical power; it is roughly 3x MW-e*** The SHC split between Non-Residential and Residential is not given11

While the Growth of PV Installations Is Accelerating Annual US PV Installations y59382710Distributed: Nonresidential2292000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009pSource: SEIA 2009 Supplemental Charts12

Only 29K Homes Installed PV Systems In 2009Annual US PV Installations (Grid-Tied)Number of 9806,6528701,0624,0854981,1281,4631,9432,27502000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009pSource: SEIA 2009 Supplemental Charts13

The US Increased Its CSP Capacity From 1985-1991, But SinceThen Little New CSP Has Come OnlineCSP - US Annual Installed &Cumulative Capacity500450419 419400354 354 354 354 354364 364 364 364 364431354 354 354 354 354 355350MW-ac300274Cumulative25013415010410080 805000-50Annual Installed1942004424 2010 10 10 140 0606460300000100000-10000010121981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009Source: SEIA 2009 Supplemental Charts14

However a Large Amount of Solar Capacity Is Under DevelopmentFor Utility Scale Projects – Employing Both PV & CSP TechnologiesCentral/Utility Growth - US by TechnologyUtility Scale Solar Projects in the US as of June 25, 2010CSP# PlantsPV-SIMW# PlantsPV-Thin FilmMW# PlantsMWIN OPERATION pre-200493541300IN OPERATION post-20056791284551154331387551UNDER CONSTRUCTION175989140UNDER 1,298Total Current CapacityTOTAL current & pipelineSource: SEIA “UTILITY SCALE SOLAR PROJECTS IN THE US”, 6/25/201015

The Growth of Distributed PV Solar Capacity Has Accelerated,However SHC (mainly pool heating) Has Leveled OffDistributed Solar Installations400350300MW-dc2502001501005002000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009p In MW – Annual installed capacity for distributed (located at user site) solar energy(Note: SHC adjusted from MW-thermal to MW-electrical) SHC – Pool heating is 80-95% of this total; hot water makes up most of theremainderSource: SEIA 200916

Annual US Shipments of Solar Heating & Cooling are DominatedBy Pool Heating ApplicationsSolar Heating & Cooling Shipments120010361000918MW-th8006001098728758896 8727435429787027207021882810338Pool Heating999785887400931776699Hot WaterSpace Heating & Other511200024729242167425912012914726262000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009p Cumulative Solar Water Heating and Pool Heating growth from 2000 to 2009: SWH increased from 1500 to roughly 2200 MW-th (CAGR 4%) Pool Heating increased from roughly 14,500 to 22,500 MW-th (CAGR 5%)Source: Based on a chart in the SEIA 2009 Supplemental Charts17

Cost Comparison of Energy Sources: Solar is BecomingIncreasingly Competitive With Other Sources Solar is increasingly competitive with traditional generation technologies Almost always less expensive than new peaking plants Increasingly less expensive than new baseloadSolar RangePhotovoltaic 87Concentrated Solar Power 196 129Lazard (2009)Severance (2009) 206Gas Peaking 197IGCC 97Nuclear 105Coal 149 140 71Gas Combined Cycle 50 250 300 153 57 0 352 109 100 150 200 250 300 350 400Levelized Cost of Energy ( /MWh)Source: SEIA 2009 Supplemental Charts18

Achieving Cost Parity With Grid Supplied Electricity Module prices will resume their rapid decline in 2011, following steady to slightlyupward price movements in the first half of 2010. In 2011, difficult demandconditions will force module prices down by a further 19 percent, reaching below 1.40/W on average. However, ASPs declines will begin to moderate in 2012 and 2013 as strongerdemand growth returns to the global market, supported by a class of secondarymarkets. Italy and Japan will be the first major PV markets to reach unsubsidized grid parity,thanks to high retail electricity prices and established PV demand centers. Projects in both countries will begin to achieve this milestone within the nextthree years, with global grid parity following thereafter.19

3. Photovoltaic (PV) Global Supply Chain & ProductionTopics Covered In This Section Photovoltaic Supply Chain Overview Manufacturing of Supply Chain Components Polysilicon ingot and wafer Cell Module System integration, assembly and installation20

Photovoltaic Supply Chain (most common)Raw MaterialIngotWafer mfgSolar Cell(semiconductor cells)Solar Module Crystalline/multicrystalline (80-90% of market) (silicon is purified but lower grade thanfor computers) Thin-film (uses less than 1% of light absorbing material compared to traditionalmethod; cheaper, but less efficient; 0-20% of market and growing) Ingot casting Silicon wafers make up 40-50% of crystalline module cost Doping: Create n-type and p-type wafers Screen printingEncapsulantTop surface (usually glass) and bottom surface (weatherproof sheet)Aluminum frame and junction frame String cells together into moduleSolar Panel Add Balance of System to modules (BoS manages power) – 20% of total cost Inverter (converts power from DC to AC) – 10% of total cost Blocking diode, charge controller, circuit breaker, switch gear, wiring Battery (optional)Installation Construction and/or installation (20%)21

Photovoltaic Supply Chain IllustrationSource: Hemlock Semiconductor22

The Supply of Polysilicon Wafers is a Critical Driver of Cost &Quality in the Photovoltaic Industry Polysilicon wafers are a major PV cost component The 2005 polysilicon shortage was due to lack of capacity for purifying silicon to 6N 40-50% of the finished module, (module is 50-60% of installed cost)Producing solar-grade polysilicon is complex and capital intensive- Minimum purity: 6N or 99.999999%Maintaining polysilicon quality is critical- Even small decreases in PV efficiency resulting from using lower quality polysilicon can offsetthe cost savings gained from using the lower quality polysiliconInitially, the PV industry relied on leftover polysilicon from the electronics industryHowever, PV demand surpassed electronics in 2007 and is now the primary driver of growth inpolysilicon productionShortage in 2005 (created by PV demand) drove up prices and resulted in significant investment inpolysilicon production facilitiesCell and module manufacturers who could not secure long term contracts paid substantially higherpricesBut now, because of over-investment, polysilicon prices have been driven down 2010: 72 million metric tons (MT) of demand vs. 122 million MT of supplyFrom roughly 2/watt in 2008 to less than 50 cents/watt in 2010Sources: Solarbuzz.com, NREL 2008 report (published 2010) and Motech/AE Polysilicon23

Polysilicon Ingot & Wafer Production is Generally Located NearCell Plants To Ensure Uninterrupted Supply Crystal growing and casting plants are best sited where there is an abundantsource of reliable, cheap energy to power the high temperature operations 1 They do not need to be sited close to solar cell plants because wafer transportationis cheap, but most are because the investment has been by PV manufacturers tosecure wafer supply to their cell plants 2 In 2008, the US was the largest producer of polysilicon (43%) 3 But the market is changing quickly now: 4 Established producers expanded capacities Newcomers , especially from China, have moved into this market (primarily tovertically integrate their PV cell mfg)1 Solarbuzz.com2 Solarbuzz.com3 NREL 2008 Solar Technologies Market Report (released 1/2010)4 NREL 2008 Solar Technologies Market Report (released 1/2010)24

Polysilicon Wafer Manufacturers – Market Leaders1CompanyHemlock SemiconductorCapacity Data Points36kt (2010)LocationUS (all?)25kt (2010)Wacker ChemieGCL-PolyOCI"2nd largest hyperpure polycrystallinesilicon manufacturer”German company ( US location)18kt (2010)New leaderHong Kong Company(manufacturers in China)17kt as of 6/2010; expected to be 27k as of12/2010 and 32k as of 10/2011 .South KoreaNew leaderRenewable Energy CorpASA (REC)17kt (2010)NorwayMEMC Electronic Materials8kt (2010)US Company (mfg in Korea, Taiwan,Malaysia, Italy, Japan, Texas [2],Missouri)Tokuyama8kt (2010)Japan1 NREL 2008 Solar Technologies Market Report (released 1/2010)Sources: SEIA, NREL, solar.calfinder.com, wikipedia25

Solar PV Casting & Wafering ProcessSource: MEME.com26

Solar Cell Manufacturing ProcessProcess Steps: Wafers are doped (create n-type and p-typewafers) Sandwich each type together Apply contacts on both sides (screen printed,or other methods) Add an external pathway connecting bothsides so the electrons can flow Apply an anti-reflective coatingSource: www.azsolarcenter.org27

Solar Cell Manufacturing Plants are Capital Intensive, thusCompanies Generally Supply Global Markets From One Location Solar cell plants are complex and large Typically 10-50MW capacity and over 50,000 sq ft of plant area A rule of thumb guide to the capital investment in building a solar cell plant isUS 1M/MW for crystalline silicon and US 2M/MW or more for thin films. Because this is a highly capital intensive part of the manufacturing chain, mostmanufacturers seek to centralize this activity at few locations. Thus solar cell production will typically service international markets from a singlefacility. Crystalline-Si cell plants, based on well-proven technology, can be operational within1 1/2 to 2 years of project approval and could be running at full capacity after anotheryear. At a fully operational 50 MW Plant, around 300 jobs might be created, includingoperational, warehousing, fabrication and overhead administration.- The actual number will be dependent on the chosen technology and degree of automation.Source: Solarbuzz.com28

Global Solar Cell Production by RegionGlobal Cell Production by Region, 2009 (MW-dc)Region200720082009North l3,7467,04910,655Source: GreenTechMedia Research 2009 Global PV Cell and Module Production Analysis, May 201029

Top 10 Global Solar Cell ProducersTable 10: Top 15 Cell Producers, 2009 (MW-dc)Rank123456789101112131415Company2009 Cell Production (MW-dc)First SolarSuntech PowerSharpQ-CellsYingli Green EnergyJA SolarKyoceraTrina SolarSunpowerGintechMotechCanadian SolarNingbo Solar ElectricSanyoE-Ton 5Source: GreenTechMedia Research 2009 Global PV Cell and Module Production Analysis, May 201030

Solar Cell Producers by RegionTable 5: North American Cell Production, 2009 (MW-dc)CompanyFirst SolarUnited SolarSolarworld USAEvergreen SolarSolyndraOtherTotalw/o First 104.630.0121.6595.0448.008 to 09 Growth Capacity 0150.0250.0160.070.0542.51,332.51,172.5Capacity ble 6: Japanese Cell Production, 2009 290.0Sanyo165.0215.0Mitsubishi Electric121.0148.0Kaneka42.552.0Mitsubishi HEL16.040.0Other23.050.0Total937.51,268.0* Most data for Japanese producers was generously provided courtesy of RTS Corporation in 8 to 09 Growth Capacity .0400.0345.0220.070.068.0147.51,960.5Capacity e 7: European Cell Production, 2009 (MW-dc)CompanyQ-Cells (DE)First Solar (DE)Solarworld (DE)Bosch Solar/Ersol (DE)Schott Solar (DE)REC Scancell (NW)Isofoton (ES)Sovello (DE)Solland (NE)Sunways (DE)Photovoltech 1,930.008 to 09 Growth Capacity .0140.0180.0170.0116.080.01,214.03,544.0Capacity 16.0155.01,468.04,013.0Source: GreenTechMedia Research 2009 Global PV Cell and Module Production Analysis, May 201031

Solar Cell Producers by Region (continued)Table 8: China/Taiwan Cell Production, 2009 (MW-dc)Company2007200808 to 09Growth2009Capacity YE09 Capacity YE10Suntech (CH)327.0497.5704.041.5%1,000.01,400.0Motech (TW)176.0275.0360.030.9%600.0800.0Yingli Green Energy (CH)142.5281.5525.086.5%600.01,000.0JA Solar (CH)113.2277.0509.083.8%875.01,100.0Trina Solar (CH)37.0210.0399.090.0%600.0900.0Gintech (TW)55.0180.0368.0104.4%640.0750.0Solarfun (CH)88.0172.8220.027.3%360.0480.0Canadian Solar (CH)7.571.6326.0355.3%420.0700.0China Sunergy (CH)80.3111.0160.144.2%320.0352.0Neo Solar (TW)36.0102.0200.096.1%240.0600.0E-TON (TW)60.095.0225.0136.8%320.0500.0DelSolar (TW)45.083.088.87.0%180.0360.0Ningbo 4%8,767.013,039.5Table 9: Rest of World Cell Production (MW-dc)Company2007200808 to 09Growth2009Capacity YE09 Capacity YE10First Solar (ML)0.0161.0668.0314.9%854.0854.0SunPower (PH)100.1236.9398.068.0%574.0654.0Q-Cells 623.5Source: GreenTechMedia Research 2009 Global PV Cell and Module Production Analysis, May 201032

Solar PV Module Manufacturing Process Solar cells are interconnected in amatrix to form a module Solar module assembly involves: Soldering cells together to produce a36 cell string (or longer) Laminating it between toughenedglass on the top and a polymericbacking sheet on the rear. Frames are usually applied to allowfor mounting in the field, or thelaminates may be separatelyintegrated into a mounting systemfor a specific application such asbuilding integration.Sources: Solarbuzz.com, Dowcorning.com33

Solar PV Module Manufacturing The assembly of crystalline Si solar modules is most commonly carried out in thecell plant, but can be done in smaller plants closer to the end market. The capital cost of translating the solar cell into a laminated solar module is low, sothe economics of smaller capacity plants can be justified. Economies of scale can be captured with an annual capacity of 5 MW or greaterCapital cost for equipment will be around US 0.5M for this scale of plant, but the all upcost will be up to 5M.Number of jobs created is dependent on the level of automation utilized, buttypically would be in the 30-100 range. This can be preferable because while solar cells are relatively inexpensive to transport,modules with a glass front sheet and an aluminum frame are heavy and bulky.From the point that the site location has been acquired, module assembly plants can beoperational in 6-9 months.If a new building is required: 12-18 months.Module production is labor intensive, benefitting low-cost labor countries.Source: Solarbuzz.com34

Solar PV Module Production by RegionGlobal Module Production by Region, 2009 (MW-dc)Region200720082009North 346,3448,941Source: GreenTechMedia Research 2009 Global PV Cell and Module Production Analysis, May 201035

Solar PV Modules – Top 15 ProducersTable 11: Top 15 Module Producers, 2009 (MW-dc)Rank123456789101112131415CompanyFirst SolarSuntech PowerSharpYingli Green EnergyKyoceraTrina SolarSunpowerCanadian SolarSolarfunSolarWorldSanyoNingbo Solar ElectricSchott SolarChangzhou EgingAleo Solar2009 Module Production 139Source: GreenTechMedia Research 2009 Global PV Cell and Module Production Analysis, May 201036

PV System Integration, Assembly & Installation The final part of the overall manufacturing process is the solar systemassembly and installation – this has two aspects: Mechanical integration of the solar module into its chosen array structure- Array structure will depend on the final location Electrical integration of the solar module with rest of system- Includes inverters, batteries, wiring, disconnects, and regulators (chargecontrollers).- Requires matching equipment to the electrical load required by the customer This part of the manufacturing process is the least capital intensive and canbe located on small premises, or even be undertaken at the customers site: Sales companies ("Integrators", "Dealers" or "Installers") perform this task Relatively labor intensive and is an important component of job creationwithin the industrySource: Solarbuzz.com37

4. Trends in PV Production, Supply & DemandTopics Covered in This Section Historical Background Global Supply and Demand US Production Facilities US Incentives and Market Potential The Emergence of China US Strength in Thin Film Trade Patterns38

Trends in Global PV Production – Historical Overview: The USLost Market Leadership in PV after 1999 US led in PV shipments before 1999, but lost market leadership over thesubsequent decade – first to Japan and then to Europe (primarily Germany), andfinally to China/Taiwan which shipped 46% of total product in 2009: Japan – market surge resulted largely from the Japanese residential subsidyprogram Europe – demand resulted largely from the German feed-in tariff and similarpolicies adopted by other European countries China and Taiwan – in 2009 they surged to dominance primarily due to priceleadership All the above had strong production growth rates in the past decade, but marketshare for Japan, Europe and US dropped due to the emergence of China andTaiwanSource: Solar Vision Study Draft (May 2010)39

Global PV Supply & Demand (Cell & Module Shipments): 86% ofDemand is in Europe, Much of it Supplied From AsiaGlobal PV Supply and Demand (% of Annual Shipments MW)2%6%38% China and Taiwan*61%53% Germany*86%Rest of World16%JapanEuropeUS18%5%6%SUPPLYDEMANDSource: Solar Vision Study Draft (May 2010)*SEIA 200940

Demand Globally is Driven By Subsidies & Feed-In-Tariff “Germany has the same solar insolation as the US state of Alaska. Yet Germany is the globalleader in solar installations. Why is that? Three words – policy, policy, policy.”1 “Over the first half of 2010, most module shipments will be sent to Germany, which will run atfull capacity.” In the second half, German demand will fall due to feed-in tariff cuts in thesecond half of the year. “Italian demand will spike to 1,487 MW in 2010, maintaining its position as the second- largestnational market. Italian demand will be spurred by forthcoming feed-in-tariff reductions in2011.” “2010 will mark the beginning of a global diffusion of demand: Whereas the past few yearshave been characterized by a single “savior” country essentially keeping the global marketafloat, 2010 will mark the beginning of a global diffusion of demand across a class of growingmarkets.” “Although Germany will retain its position atop national markets, its fall from grace beginningin the second half of 2010 will leave suppliers seeking the next “gold rush.” But no othermarket has all the necessary characteristics to ramp up in volume and with sufficient pace toserve as a singular replacement for German demand. Instead, demand will become increasinglyspread out amongst markets and the boom/bust cycle will begin to dissipate.”1 GreenTechMedia, 7/26/2010: Update! 14PowerPoint Slides That Shook the EarthSource: GreenTechMedia Research, Global PV Demand Analysis and Forecast: Executive Summary, May 201041

US PV Supply Chain: In 2009 There Were 49 PV Facilities in 22States in Operation or Under Construction in the US Federal and state incentives have been encouraging manufacturers to expand PV productionin the US US facilities produce crystalline silicon, CPV*, and thin film** technologies as well aspolysilicon material (for use in crystalline silicon PV) In 2008: The US was a leader in polysilicon production in 2008, but this is probably no longer the case: Cell production was about 400 MW (6% of global production)Module production was about 500 MW (9% of global production)Polysilicon production was about 26,000 MT (41% of global production)Chinese PV cell and module manufacturers have invested in polysilicon facilities to lock up supplyIn 2009 and 2010 module production has begun to move offshore to low labor cost countries* Concentrator PV uses reflectors to focus light on small, high-efficient PV cells; high production cost and higher efficiencyrates. New and growing technology, ed by Spain. Utility scale CPV would compete with CSP. (source: 2009 TapsolarTechnology Action Plan- Solar Energy)** a-Si (amorphous silicon), CdTe (cadmium telluride), CIGS (copper indium gallium diselenide), and OPV (organic PV)Sources: Solar Vision Study Draft (05/28/2010)- DOE/SEIA/SEPA, citing Mehta 2009, Bartlett et al. 200942

Incentives Exist To Stimulate PV Demand There are Federal incentives for PV on the roof (without which PV is noteconomical) In some places there are local incentives as well: The President of SEIA stated that he received 17K from the state of Maryland,plus a 2K tax credit The price of the PV system was 35K, with a net addition to his mortgage of 6070/month But electricity savings were 100 per month, therefore PV is a net savings to himfrom day one At least one utility company is putting PV on customer roofs, where they own theequipment and the electricity goes back to the grid: The customer pays their normal electric bill, the company pays you a fee for“leasing” roof space (Duke Electric)43

PV – US Market Potential Despite a long history of

Photovoltaic (PV) Global Supply Chain and Production 4. Trends in PV Production, Supply and Demand National incentives for U.S. production facilities and competitive advantage in a global market 5. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Includes list of ma

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