Will Cryptocurrency Skyrocket Or Freefall?

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The next financial crisis:Will Cryptocurrencyskyrocket or freefall?Yves Maillot,Veteran Fund Manager& SwissBorg Advisor.

Table of Contents2Introduction3-9What could trigger a financial crisis andmake asset prices collapse soon?10 - 18What are the traditional safe havensand would they make the difference?19 - 25Major Currencies26 - 29What can we expect from cryptocurrencies during the next financialcrisis?30 - 31ConclusionIntroductionCryptocurrencies may be a play thing formany, a new way to experiment with digitalcash or perhaps to buy things online at themoment, they are going to be embraced bygovernments, institutions and individuals,but have yet to be adopted by the masses.As some experts predict an impendingeconomic and financial crisis, cryptocurrencies, as a store of value, could play abigger role in international currency.In general, during a crisis, traditional safehavens such as precious metals, US dollar, USGovernment bonds or real assets work asthe preferred hedges. However, with cryptocurrencies, people have new options. Ifthe US dollar becomes highly inflationary,cryptocurrencies will be a popular alternativeas they are not tied to any specific country.However, the world of cryptocurrencies iswide and heterogeneous, and some of themcan only play this role in the future.The first chapter of this paper identifies themain reasons for a potential coming financialturmoil (excessive debt and money creation,excessive equity leverage combined witha weakening market liquidity and irrationalexuberance 2.0). The second chapterexplores how traditional safe havens workand can work in such a context and the thirdone will examine whether cryptocurrenciescan be a new efficient solution as a hedge. Copyright SwissBorg 2019. All rights reserved.2

What could trigger a financialcrisis and make asset pricescollapse soon?Excessive debt andmonetary expansion:Public indebtedness is much larger today thanin 2008, even though it has been stable for afew years (see chart 1). Without the large andaccommodating monetary policies of majorCentral Banks purchasing huge amount ofbonds and other assets that greatly swell theirbalance sheets (also known as Monetary base –see charts 2a/b/c/ showing the Monetary baseof major CB and chart d/ for the total Monetarybase), budgetary solvency of OECD countrieswould not reach the equilibrium. Therefore, wecan observe an obvious interaction betweenpublic debt policies and monetary policies.Accommodative monetary policies allow OECDcountries to maintain public budget solvencyand help avoid a public budget crisis. Thanks tothe monetary policies of ‘great accommodation’,OECD countries continue their extensivebudget policies (especially in the US wherethe Trump administration is doing somethingwithout precedent in the history of fiscal policymaking and is willing to continue increasing Copyright SwissBorg 2019. All rights reserved.Chart 1OECD* Public Debt (% of GDP)public spending)! This circular mechanism is likean endless vicious circle between public debtand monetary base expansion that will continueup until the day Treasury bonds investors loseconfidence.3

Great accommodation, QE (1) and budgetdeficits: In the US, the Federal Reserve’sbalance sheet swelled to just over 4trillion up from just under 900 billionbefore the 2008 crash (chart 2a). Evenif the Fed has stopped buying bondsfor five years (tapering and smoothlypumping), the other major Central banks(ECB, BoJ, BoE) are still continuing similarpolicies of monetary expansion. Thismakes it clear that if another financialcrash occurred, Central Banks might notbe able to effectively play the traditionalrole as Government bond buyer of lastresort. Theoretically, there is no a limitto the Central Bank’s balance sheet butthere is a limit to how much money canbe ‘printed’ before the global marketloses confidence in the currencies (USDollar, Euro, ). Compounding this issueis the current mismanagement of publicbudgets, especially the US federal budget.We need to add that China public andprivate debt has been the fastest growingdebt in recent history (a mix of publicand private banking debts and ‘shadowbanking’ financing). Therefore, since thegovernment owns nearly all the banks, theChinese government is essentially on thehook for the debts of the entire bankingsystem. As a result, China’s official reserves(run by PBoCPopular Bank of China) are ahedge, not only for country’s currency butfor its entire financial system (see chart7- Fortune last article mentioning China’sdebt as one of the threats that haveappeared in the global outlook) Copyright SwissBorg 2019. All rights reserved.Chart 2aFederal Reserve Monetary BaseChart 2bECB Monetary BaseChart 2cBoJ Monetary Base4

Excessive financialization& reduced Market LiquidityChart 3US Shares BuyBack smashed records in 2018For many years, US corporates used to buy backtheir own shares. Over the last few years, theyhave purchased huge quantities of shares andrecord should be reached in 2018 with a totalamount close to 1000 billion (chart 3). On theone hand, US shareholders are pleased as sharesbuyback increase eps (earnings per share) andtherefore tend to push stock prices higher.But on the other hand, an excessive useof shares buyback is disturbing because:-Most of the shares buyback plans arefinanced by new corporates debts,increasing the leverage (chart 4), thanksto low financial charges because ofpersistent low rate.-It shows that real investment returnis lower than total shareholder return(especially when it’s financed in a periodof low-interest rates). This is a very bigissue for new industrial investments inthe medium-long run and abnormallyallocate money and debt to insufficientlyprofitable corporates.-Chart 4US Corporate debt is likely headed higherChart 5Number of listed companies of US equity marketProgressively, the stock exchange islosing its long-term function of financingnew companies. As shown in chart 5, thenumber of listed US companies havealmost halved over the last 20 years(the combined process of more sharesrepurchased or deleted and fewer netnew listed corporates or IPOs). Copyright SwissBorg 2019. All rights reserved.5

In one word, one should say that lack of listed names and constantwithdrawal of liquidity on the stock market is a sign of a capitalism thatis running out of breath. Indeed, instead of financing companies, theequity market is withdrawing cash to pay shareholders. The US model forfinancing firms is shifting from the stock exchange to an unlisted privatefinance. And the shares buyback ‘cycle’ should also soon come to an endand then cease to feed excessive stock market run. What’s next?Irrational exuberanceDefinitionIt refers to investor enthusiasm that drivesasset prices up to levels that aren’t supportedby fundamentals. The term is believed to havebeen coined by Alan Greenspan (one of theformer Federal Reserve Chairman) in a 1996speech, “The Challenge of Central Banking ina Democratic Society”. The speech was givennear the beginning of the 2000 dotcom bubble,a textbook example of irrational exuberance. ”But how do we know when irrational exuberancehas unduly escalated asset values, whichthen become subject to unexpected andprolonged contractions as they have in Japanover the past decade? And how do we factorthat assessment into monetary policy?” askedGreenspan. Irrational exuberance is believed tobe a problem because it gives rise to a bubblein asset prices. But when the bubble bursts,investors engage in panic selling, sometimesselling their assets for less than they’re worth.The panic can also spread to other asset Copyright SwissBorg 2019. All rights reserved.classes, and can even cause a recession.Greenspan raised the question of whethercentral banks should address irrationalexuberance via monetary policy. He believedthat central should raise interest rateswhen it appears that a speculative bubbleis beginning to take shape.The fear is that excessive and persistentlylow-interest rates would lead to excessiverisk-taking by some investors. One couldreach the conclusion that historically lowand stable interest rates pose a threat tofinancial stability. This creates a seemingparadox for policymakers. On the one hand,the existing large shortfalls in aggregatedemand call for highly accommodativemonetary policies and historically lowinterest rates. On the other hand, suchpolicies have the potential to raise thelikelihood of financial instability in the future.6

ConsequencesChart 6Cyclically Adjust Us Stocks Price-to-Earnings ratio (Shiller PE or CAPE)This is precisely what happened after the2000 dot-com bubble burst and up to theprior Lehman collapse crisis period (see chart6). Falling interest rates helped a lot there-pricing of financial assets as real estateassets (properties and housing prices thatdropped a few years later at end of 2007). Wehave entered in a similar phase for a few yearsnow with this unprecedented accommodativestance by major central banks.-Abnormal downward pressure on interestrates (on top of that, macro deflationmechanism enhances this process thatprogressively erase the long-terminvestment risk-taking (no rates - no return)-Historical lows on stock market volatility(thanks to regular equity up trend)-Inflation in all asset prices (equities,government bonds, credit and high yieldbonds, emerging assets, real estate assetprices are too high! ) as liquidity excesshas not been able to trigger the ‘real’inflation mechanism (no wages hikes nosubstantial core inflation).-To recap, a (too) long period of greatmonetary accommodation has generatedextreme prices distortion and abnormalasset returnsOne of the consequences of suchpolicies are the followings: Copyright SwissBorg 2019. All rights reserved.7

The quest for yield or for liquidityWe know that investors should not look just atthe total return different assets bring. Basically,total return (capital appreciation and income) isnot the only way to consider the attractivenessof investments. Academic speeches highlightthe fact that more risk you take and morereturn you should get. The coming questionis to know how to measure the risk fairly. Themost used and well know is volatility even if,over the long term, volatility is absolutely notrelevant and a nonsense as a risk indicator (andlong-term investors should only care to obtaina substantial premium over inflation). Indeed,do long-term institutional investors like pensionfunds or insurance companies really need tocare about the mark-to-market volatility of theassets that they’re holding? Yes they need tocare because there are various accountingand funding regulations which tell them to careand tell them to put a value on their assets andliabilities. But the more they move away fromthat point of view, the more they can focuson the long term, the less it needs to concernitself with what price something is trading atin the market. But in fact, higher returns arealso compensation for lower liquidity. It is morethan a concept but a reality. Especially on thefixed-income side and confronted with negativereal yields on AAA (the best rating) governmentbonds, investors have gone on an enthusiastic‘quest for yield’.Chart 7How to spot the next financial crisis?Investment grade corporate bonds are often thefirst port of call, then high yield and emergingdebt bonds were added to portfolios in orderto enhance total expected returns. Over thepast few years, the inflows into these categorieshave been huge – but worrying questions arise.Investment grade corporate bonds now yieldvery little over government bonds, meaning thatthe additional return is not rewarded anymore.Moreover, many institutions increased and arestill increasing their allocations to no listedassets (infrastructure, real estate, no listedequities and private equity funds, ) that areoften profitable investments but well adaptedto long-term horizon only. Copyright SwissBorg 2019. All rights reserved.8

Historically, more the bullish market trendlasts a long period of time, and more investorsand market participants search for additionalreturns or yields that they cannot assume interm of risk. Obviously, in such periods, potentialcapital appreciations are reduced, fixed incomeinvestments yield low at the same time asrisks are rising (valuation metrics are high onequities, yields are low and risk premiums tiny).And it is time for a market slump. Following abig market fall (2002, 2009) times changed and,under the pressure of the risk control, investorscome back to the focus of liquidity constraints.As said before, partially because of accountingand funding regulations that push flows togovernment bonds first ( ie Solvency II rules andthe cost of holding equities) , observation ofthe bonds markets shows that liquidity issuesare tough and tough, particularly on some assetclasses as credit debts, high yield bonds orsmall caps. This is a true threat for investors inthe years to come.To summarize the first chapter, foranyone looking for the next greatbubble, there is no doubt, lookno further, it is the debt bubble.Fortune magazine highlights thisas a true threat also (FortuneOctober 2018 - chart 7 and thewebsite ‘howmuch.net’ recentlypublished a new report that showsa unique perspective, breakingdown debt into the deficits ofeach U.S. President has addedthroughout history – chart 8). Copyright SwissBorg 2019. All rights reserved.We have talked about endogenous riskswithout mentioning exogenous risks aspolitics and geopolitics issues but manyare so much currently worrying that itneeds to be mention as:-Potential turmoil due to political issues inEurope with consequences of the Brexitor with the impact of the financial Italiansituation for Euro-Risk of oil prices spike in relation with apossible crisis in the Middle East-Strengthening political tensions betweenthe US and China (the 2 Bigs struggle hasstarted !)-Increasing geopolitical risk and terrorismfears. It is enough to consider that ifa catalyst (as one of some mentionedbefore) pushed economies into recessionand forced to run new dollars/euros trilliondeficits to stimulate the economy, youprobably should wonder when creditorsand the financial community say that it istoo much. All of this looks like a recipe fora potential big currency crisis.And in such a crisis, where would people turnif the US dollar became highly inflationary?Certainly, people could opt for other sovereignfiat currencies, but a dollar crisis is likely toshake people’s confidence in almost every fiatcurrency.9

What are the traditional safehavens and would they makea difference?A safe haven is an investment that is expectedto retain or even increase in value during timesof market turbulence. Safe havens are soughtby investors to limit their exposure to losses inthe event of market downturns. However, whatappears to be a safe investment in one downmarket could be a disastrous investment inanother down market, and so the evaluation ofsafe haven investments vary.is prolonged. When the market is in turmoil,the market value of most investments fallssteeply. While such systemic events in themarket are unavoidable, some investors look tobuy safe-haven assets that are uncorrelatedor negatively correlated to the general marketduring times of distress. While most assets arefalling in value, safe havens either retain orincrease in value.A safe haven investment diversifies an investor’sportfolio and is beneficial in times of marketvolatility. Most times, when the market rises orfalls, it is for a short period of time. However,there are times, such as during an economicrecession, when the downturn of the marketThere are a number of investments thatare considered to be safe havens. But theydon’t work each time, depending on thereasons for the market stress. Some of themare traditionally considered as safe haveninvestments: Copyright SwissBorg 2019. All rights reserved.10

Traditional Safe HavenGold, precious metals andother commoditiesFor decades and centuries, gold has beenconsidered a store of value. As a physicalcommodity, it cannot be printed like money,and its value is not impacted by interest ratedecisions made by a government. Becausegold has historically maintained its value overtime, it serves as a form of insurance againstadverse economic events. When an adverseevent occurs that lingers for a while, investorstend to pile their funds into gold, which drivesup its price due to increased demand. Also,when there is a threat of inflation (or expectednegative ‘real returns’ (2) on other assetclasses’).Chart 9Gold Price in USD since 1792.The value of gold increases since it is pricedin U.S. dollars. Other commodities also, suchas silver, copper, sugar, corn, and livestock, arenegatively correlated with stocks and bondsand serve as safe havens for investors. Gold:Of course, gold is one of those investmentsthat attracts extreme viewpoints andideological arguments that favour narrativesover substance. The reason for this is becausethe U.S. was once on the gold standard, whichwas more or less replaced by the FederalReserve as a form of monetary policy.(2) (Real return means a deflated return after havingsubtracted inflation or expected inflation rate. Whenreal returns are negative or tend to become negative,the gold price is going up as gold (and other preciousmetals) don’t generate any income. Holding gold thenbecomes cheaperAnytime politics and government are involved,there are bound to be irrational people andemotional arguments made both for and againstthat topic. Gold has become the de facto ‘us’ vs.the system investment over the years and thishas only intensified as the role of central banksin the markets has grown in recent years. Copyright SwissBorg 2019. All rights reserved.11

Did it work?Chart 10Gold return since 1970 (with gold price at 1100 per ounce)It’s rare to find a simple historical account ofthe yellow metal that doesn’t involve highlypoliticized or biased points of view, so I thoughtI would take a look back at the history of gold’sperformance as an investment over the years(see chart 9).To gain a historical perspective on gold prices,between January 1934 with the introduction ofthe Gold Reserve Act and ending in August 1971when Richard Nixon ended the convertibilityof the U.S. dollar to gold, the price was roughlyset at 35 to 40 an ounce. From there it grewall the way to 850 an ounce by early 1980,for a return of more than 2000%. In a decadethat saw subpar returns on both stocks andbonds in the U.S. along with sky-high inflation, itwas by far one of the best investments in thattime. The price didn’t move much before Nixonremoved the peg so it’s very possible that thiswas a catch-up period in terms of price. Copyright SwissBorg 2019. All rights reserved.From that point on, over the next 20 years orso, the price of gold fell over 70% until it finallybottomed in late 1999. The annualized 20-yearreturn from 1980 to 1999 was just shy of -6% ayear. From 1971 to 1999 the total return was closeto 6% per year, which shows how much of the totalreturn up to that point occurred in the 1970s.From a price of just over 250 an ounce in late1999, gold then grew to just over 1,900 /ounceby late-2011, for a gain of almost 650% or anannualized return of more than 18%. Gold only hada closing price above 1,900/ounce for a singleday before staging a fairly quick retreat from thatrecord price. From the peak in September of 2011,gold is now down 40% roughly.You can see the tables chart 10 that break downthe returns into different time frames to giveyou a sense of how gold has performed over thedifferent decades12

Had you invested in 1980, following the hugesurge in gold in the 1970s, you would have lostmoney to inflation over the ensuing 35 years.Since 2000, gold has actually outperformedthe S&P 500. Both of these statements aretrue, but you will be hard pressed to hearboth from gold’s most ardent supportersor detractors. As with all investments, if youchange the time frame, almost any argumentcan be made either for or against, dependingon how the information is presented.Depending on your time frame gold haseither been a terrible investment or a solid(no pun intended) diversifier.When evaluating the performance of gold asan investment over the long term, it reallydepends on the time period being analyzed.For example, over a 45-year period gold hasoutperformed stocks and bonds, while overa 30-year period, stocks and bonds haveoutperformed gold and over a 15-year period,gold has outperformed stocks and bonds.Over the past 30 years, the price of goldhas increased by 335%. Over the sameperiod, the Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJIA) has gained 1,255%.Over the past 15 years, the price of gold hasincreased by 315%, roughly the same as the30-year return. Over the same period, theDJIA increased by 58% and the FBNDX(a US Bond market benchmark) returned127%, which are both significantly lowerthan their 30-year returns. Copyright SwissBorg 2019. All rights reserved.Using the set gold price of 35 and the priceof 1,233 per ounce on October. 25, 2018, aprice appreciation of approximately 3,500%can be deduced. Since August 1971, the DJIAhas appreciated in value by over 1,800%ConclusionDuring a recession and low inflationperiod NO – but YES if inflation takesoff or if the financial sector givessigns of cracks. However remains theissue of hoarding quantities of goldthat is still uneasy.An observation of the secular trendon gold shows that the yellow metalhas outperformed inflation andhas then protected capital. In US and since beginning of 1900, theaverage annual return of gold hasbeen 4.3% versus an average yearlyinflation rate of 2.9%, producing anannual 1.4% real return.13

Chart 115 Years correlation (in US ) between main asset classes - mid 2017.-but, as said previously the performance of gold has been far from linear,alternating phases of poor or negative returns and phases of sharp, quickand outstanding performances.-during tough times of financial turmoil (if the banking sector showscracking signals somehow when the preservation and safety of individualmoney becomes questionable), holding gold is relevant-but holding gold can become quite uncomfortable during tough timeslike prior to the Gold Reserve Act in 1934, when President Roosevelt hadrequired citizens to surrender gold bullion, coins and notes in exchangefor U.S. dollars and effectively made investing in gold extremely difficult,if not impossible and futile for those who did manage to hoard or concealquantities of the precious metal.-we also have to mention that one of the ‘quality’ of holding gold in a multiasset class allocation is diversification as shown in the correlation matrix(chart 11). The monthly correlations table shows that Gold has nocorrelation with other asset classes (small positive or small negative) andthe last updated table give similar numbers as it used to be during theformer periods in the past. As gold, worth to mention that bitcoin shows asimilar de-correlation with other asset classes (chart 11)In fact, gold is truly a safe haven and a ‘must have ‘when inflation starts to recover (the70s for instance), meaning that traditional investments, especially bonds are massivelyunderperforming inflation that erodes savings and purchasing power. On the other hand,during recession periods (an example of the 30s during the great depression-gold priceperformance has been poor), when nominal rates stay low or very low and inflation rateeven lower, gold or other precious metals do not protect your money as positive realyields compete easily with a ‘no yield holding’ like gold, tackling, therefore, the capital. Copyright SwissBorg 2019. All rights reserved.14

Chart 12Fed Reserve balance sheet vs. Gold price.Two more key points should be highlightedabout gold in the current context of overliquidity, money base created by the majorcentral banks and possible de-dollarizationof world trade:The recent past quantitative easing policyof the US Federal Reserve and still currentaccommodative stance of ECB, BoJ, BoE hascreated a large distortion of value betweenmain fiats (US dollar, euro yen, ) and thetheoretical fair value of gold as the inflatedmonetary bases and CB balance sheets havenot been followed by a repricing of the yellowmetal since the announcement of the UStapering (end of QE) in 2013 (see chart 12).An interesting side notes to China and therenminbi: it fell sharply this summer (2018) notonly against the dollar but against the CFETS Copyright SwissBorg 2019. All rights reserved.tradeweighted basket that is supposedly thetarget of PBOC (Central Bank of China) policy.Yet it barely moved against gold. This couldbe a coincidence. Or it could be evidenceof Beijing’s long-term plan to de dollarizecommodity prices. More evidence: theShanghai RMB oil futures contract, which haspicked up market share from Brent and WTI.What is the connection? Swapping therenminbi for the dollar in commodities tradingcarries a risk for the Chinese government:loss of control over its exchange rate. Bylinking the renminbi to gold, even if loosely,it can create an alternative for internationalpayments, without losing control of itscurrency (chart 13 shows the falling volatilityof the gold price in CNY which representsa true proof of that)15

US Treasury bills (T-bills) and other majorSovereign bonds (Japan, Germany):US Treasury bills and Government bondsare considered as a traditional referenceand safe haven (a ‘risk free’ underlying) by allinternational investors. These debt securitiesare backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S.government and, hence, are considered safehavens even in tumultuous economic climates.T-bills are truly considered to be ‘risk-free’,as any principal invested is repaid by thegovernment when the bill matures. Investors,therefore, tend to run to these securitiesduring times of perceived economic chaos.But the question is now the following: willGovernment bonds, even if considered as atraditional haven, become riskier investments?Because as mentioned before, a decade ofaggressive quantitative easing has createdsevere distortions in sovereign debt markets,reducing liquidity and calling into questionthe suitability of bonds in mitigating risks andstabilizing investors’ portfolios. The clearestexample of this issue is Japanese governmentbonds, the world’s second-largest sovereigndebt market. The country’s central bank nowowns a staggering 40% of JGBs (JapaneseGovernment Bonds), leaving fewer bonds forinvestors to buy and sell. Liquidity has dried upto such an extent that few days after a recentauction not a single benchmark 10-year JGBwas traded in the secondary market. A havenwith a dearth of buyers and sellers is not muchof a haven. Just as worryingly, central banks’QE programs have driven up the prices ofsovereign bonds to dangerously high levels(more specifically in Europe and Japan now),thereby pushing yields down and increasingbonds’ vulnerability to a rise in inflation and theremoval of monetary stimulus. Indeed, Centralbanks stimulus of bonds purchases have beenone of the key drivers of declining yields andconsequently on bonds markets performancesand equities markets return as well (even inlesser extent – in fact, dividend yield stay Copyright SwissBorg 2019. All rights reserved.Chart 13Gold price volatility in Chinese Yuan (CNY)abnormally stable above bond yields since thestart of Fed QE end 2008 -this yield spreaddistortion has been widened following thebonds purchase program triggered by the ECBa few years later and the BoJ massive assetspurchase at the same time – see chart 14).Did it work? Will it work? Yes indeed it has beenefficient but I am afraid for the coming periodsDue to the current situation described beforeand given very low bond yields, inflation / ordebt unsustainability become to be big threatsto bondholders.Chart 14Word DY vs Gov Yield.16

Defensive StocksFor more than three decades, inflation ratesare coming down in the major economies (tophas been reached during the second oil shockin 1981). The eighties was the starting point ofa long period of disinflation and therefore ofoutstanding bonds performances (abnormal?).In the meantime, several stock markets crashor sharp falls occurred (October 1987, Asiancrisis in 1997, LTCM failure in 1998, Internetbubble burst in 2000/01, Lehman in 2008, Europeripheral countries debt crisis in 2011) andeach time, short-term switches from risky assetsto government bonds (the US or German bondsfirst) work well. But considering the issue ofhigh indebtedness, lack of room for additionalmonetary easing (if needed) and marketliquidity issues, it is obviously questionable tostill consider US Government bonds or othermajor sovereign debts as safe haven ConclusionHolding Government or publicdebts is far from a safe havenposition now. Understatement!Chart 15Yields in europe - Divided yields higher than credit yields.Examples of defensive stocks include utility,healthcare, biotechnology, no cyclicalconsumer goods and all the companies thatbenefit from regular future sales, cash-flowsand benefits. In one word, all companies andsectors with good visibility follow a marketbehaviour that looks like a bond’s profile(sensitivity to interest rates). It is also thereason why we call them ‘proxy-bonds’.Furthermore and regardless of the state ofthe market, consumers are still going topurchase food, health products, and basichome supplies. Therefore, companies operatingin the defensive sector will typically retaintheir values during times of uncertainty, asinvestors increase their demand for theseshares. However, even if that kind of companiesare well prepared to overperform general equityindices during a recession period (generallypositive in relative term but not in the absoluteterm), they would not be resilient if increasingrisk aversion come one day from a financialsystemic risk. And what about high dividendsstocks, real estate (pro

7KHQH[WÔQDQFLDOFULVLV Yves Maillot, Veteran Fund Manager & SwissBorg Advisor. Wi