Coronavirus Uncertainties: Vaccines,

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Coronavirus uncertainties: vaccines,symptoms and contested claimsFor more information, contact:Bobby Duffybobby.duffy@kcl.ac.ukSupported by:Sunday 9 August 2020

IntroductionThis report includes findings from a survey of 2,237 UK residents aged16-75 by King’s College London in partnership with Ipsos MORI,conducted on 17-20 July 2020. Some of these are compared with resultsfrom two other surveys that were carried out during the coronaviruspandemic.It finds that: Only half the population (53%) say they’d be certain or very likely toget a vaccine against coronavirus, if one becomes available, with onein five (20%) fairly likely. 1 in 6 people (16%) say they are unlikely to or definitely won’t get aCovid-19 vaccine, if one becomes available. This rises to even higher levels among different groups, such as: Those who believe face masks are bad for people’s health(37%), who believe masks do not reduce the spread of Covid19 (34%), and who think the government only wants people towear them as a way of controlling them (34%).Those who strongly agree that too much fuss is being madeabout the pandemic (36%) and those who say they do not findcoronavirus stressful (27%).Those who say they’re very much the kind of person forwhom it's important to make their own decisions (24%) andwho say they're not at all the kind of person who follows therules at all times (24%). Certain behaviours and experiences are also linked to being unlikelyto get a potential vaccine. For example, around a quarter of thosewho don’t wear face masks (24%) and those who have/had or thinkthey’ve had coronavirus (23%) say they probably or definitely won’t. Where people’s knowledge on the virus comes from is also a factor:27% of people who get a great deal of their information on Covid-19from WhatsApp say they are unlikely to or definitely won’t get avaccine. And while just 4% think we’ll never be able to vaccinate thepopulation against coronavirus, less than half the public (44%) thinkwe’ll be able to within the next 12 months.Some are also still uncertain about what the key signs of Covid-19 are.Many know at least one of the three main symptoms of coronavirus, asidentified by the NHS, with 81% recognising two – but only 31% correctlyrecognise all three.Finally, there’s growing uncertainty about some conspiracy claims, whilemany are also unsure about widely debated scientific claims, such aswhether children spread coronavirus a easily as adults and whethershouting spreads it more than talking. This uncertainty about keyscientific claims reflects the shifting and contested evidence base oncertain issues.

A Covid-19 vaccine: who’s unlikely to get it?There is uncertainty among some sections of the public about whether theywould actually get a coronavirus vaccine, if one becomes available.Being unlikely to get such a vaccine is related to certain beliefs, attitudes andvalues that reflect greater scepticism about science and authority and lessconcern about the pandemic.Some experiences and behaviours, such as not wearing face masks andhaving or thinking you’ve had coronavirus, are also linked to greateruncertainty about getting vaccinated, as is whether people get a lot of theirinformation on the virus from WhatsApp.Younger people, too, are more likely than older people to say they are unlikelyto or definitely won’t get the vaccine.And while very few think we’ll never be able to vaccinate the populationagainst coronavirus, there is limited optimism that we’ll be able to do so withina year.

Only half the population(53%) say they’d becertain or very likely toget a vaccine againstcoronavirus, if onebecomes available, with1 in 5 (20%) fairly likely,and 1 in 6 (16%) sayingthey are unlikely to ordefinitely won’t.1 in 9 (11%) say theydon’t know how likelythey are to get such avaccine.If a vaccine for coronavirus becomes available, how likely or unlikelywould you personally be to get the vaccine?Certain30%Very likely23%Fairly likely20%Not very likely9%Not at all likely 3%Definitely not4%Don't knowBase: 2,237 UK residents aged 16-75, interviewed 17-20 July11%

A range of beliefs, attitudes andvalues are associated withgreater doubt about getting apotential Covid-19 vaccine.In particular, around a third ormore of those who are scepticalof the value of face masks orbelieve certain conspiracytheories about them say they’reunlikely to or definitely won’t geta vaccine – more than double theproportion of the overallpopulation who say the same.Lower levels of stress andconcern about the pandemic arealso related to people beingmore doubtful about gettingvaccine.And around a quarter of thosewho prioritise their own personalfreedoms and those who saythey’re not always rule-followersare more doubtful about beingvaccinated.% who say they are unlikely to or will definitely not get a vaccine forcoronavirus if one becomes availableTotal16%37%Believe face masks are bad for healthStrongly agree too much fuss is beingmade about the risk of coronavirusDo not believe face masks help toreduce the spread of Covid-19Believe government only wants people to wearface masks as a way of controlling themDo not trust scientific experts moreas a result of handling of pandemic36%34%34%33%Believe government is relaxing the measuresto control coronavirus too slowly27%Do not find coronavirus stressful27%Say they're not at all the kind of personwho follows the rules at all timesSay they’re very much the kind of person forwhom it's important to make their own decisionsNot worried about lifting lockdown restrictionsBase: 2,237 UK residents aged 16-75, interviewed 17-20 July24%24%24%

Certain behaviours andexperiences are also linkedto greater misgivings abouta Covid-19 vaccine.Around a quarter of thosewho report not wearing facemasks and those who saythey’ve had, or think they’vehad, coronavirus say it’sdoubtful they’ll get one.Where people’s knowledgeabout the virus comes fromis also a factor: more than aquarter of those who saythey get a great deal ofinformation on Covid-19from WhatsApp say they’reunlikely to or definitely won’tget a coronavirus vaccine.% who say they are unlikely to or will definitely not get a vaccine forcoronavirus if one becomes availableTotal16%Moved in with family/friends28%Get a greatdealof informationGet fair amount/greatdealof informationonon coronavirusfrom WhatsAppvirusfrom WhatsApp27%Don't wear face masks24%Low level of knowledge about coronavirus24%Have/had or think they’veHave/hadhad coronaviruscoronavirusCertain/very likely to face financial difficultiesBase: 2,237 UK residents aged 16-75, interviewed 17-20 July23%21%

There is an age divide inthe likelihood of notgetting vaccinated, with16-24s and 25-34s twiceas likely as 55-75s to saythey’re doubtful aboutdoing so or definitelywon’t.% who say they are unlikely to or will definitely not get a vaccine forcoronavirus if one becomes 5Base: 2,237 UK residents aged 16-75, interviewed 17-20 July15%11%

Only 4% say we’ll neverbe able to vaccinate thepopulation againstcoronavirus – but lessthan half the public(44%) think we’ll able toin the next 12 months.When, if at all, do you think the following will happen?We will be able to vaccinate the population against coronavirus in 1-2 weeks3-4 weeks/around 1 month12 weeks/around 3 months*1%4%6 months14%12 months24%18 months18%2 years11%More than 2 years’ timeNeverDon’t knowBase: 2,237 UK residents aged 16-75, interviewed 17-20 July9%4%15%

There is concern abouthow health servicescould cope with a waveof seasonal flu on top ofCovid-19 infections –intentions to vaccinateagainst flu are thereforealso key.Only 4 in 10 are certainor very likely to get aseasonal flu vaccine(lower than for Covid-19),while 38% say they arenot very, not at all likelyor definitely won’t.How likely or unlikely is it that you personally will getthe seasonal flu vaccine this winter?Certain27%Very likely13%Fairly likely13%Not very likelyNot at all likelyDefinitely notDon't knowBase: 2,237 UK residents aged 16-75, interviewed 17-20 July16%10%12%9%

Coronavirus symptoms: how certain is the UK aboutthe key signs?Knowledge of the symptoms of Covid-19 will be key if the lockdownrestrictions are to be relaxed further, as people will need to remainvigilant as they resume aspects of normal life.But while most people know some of the main symptoms of Covid-19,far fewer are able to recognise all three identified by the NHS.

There is a high level ofawareness of the keysymptoms of coronavirus– but only 31% correctlyidentify all three of themain symptoms as listedby the NHS, while 81%identify two out of three.Can you tell us what you think the most common symptoms ofcoronavirus are? Please select up to three*High temperature / fever76%* Cough*71%Loss of sense of smell or taste58%Shortness of breath / difficulties breathing46%Sore throat8%Feeling tired or having low energy7%Headache5%Chest pain3%Aches and pains3%Chills / shivering2%Runny or blocked nose2%None of these2%Stomach ache1%Diarrhoea1%Don't know1%Base: 2,237 UK residents aged 16-75, interviewed 17-20 JulyOnly 31%identifyall 3 symptoms*Denotes mainsymptoms listedby the NHS

There’s growing uncertainty about conspiracy claims that Covid-19deaths are being hidden or exaggerated, while many are alsounsure about widely debated scientific claimsLevels of belief in conspiracy theories about the Covid-19 death toll are notfar off what they were back in May – although uncertainty has increased, withmore now saying they don’t know whether they’re true or false. There hasalso been a significant decline in the proportion who think it’s false thatcoronavirus deaths are being deliberately exaggerated by the authorities.On other widely debated scientific claims about Covid-19, public opinionreflects the shifting and contested evidence base: the UK is relatively dividedon whether children spread the virus as easily as adults, and while majoritiesthink that shouting spreads it more than talking and that people who havehad a confirmed case can still pass it on to others, significant proportions saythey don’t know.

Belief that the authoritiesare intentionally minimisingdeaths from Covid-19 islargely unchanged sinceMay, although there hasbeen an increase in theproportion who say theydon’t know whether thisclaim is true or false.There has been morechange when it comes tothe belief that coronavirusdeaths are beingdeliberately exaggerated bythe authorities: 59% nowthink this is false, down from69% in May. In line with this,there has been an increasein the proportions who saythey either think it’s true ordon’t know.Are the following statements true or false?The number of people reported as dying from coronavirus is beingdeliberately reduced or hidden by the authorities17-20 JulyTrueDon’t know28%31%30%20-22 MayFalse41%26%44%The number of people reported as dying from coronavirus is beingdeliberately exaggerated by the authorities17-20 July20-22 May18%14%23%17%59%69%Base: 2,237 UK residents aged 16-75, interviewed 17-20 July and 2,254 UK residents aged 16-75, interviewed 20-22 May 2020

13% of Conservativevoters now believe thatCovid-19 deaths are beingminimised, down from19% in May, while beliefamong Labour and LibDem voters is largelyunchanged.But there have beenbigger increases in theproportions who believethat deaths are beingintentionally exaggerated:among Lib Dem votersbelief has more thandoubled, from 8% to 21%,while among Labourvoters it has risen from11% to 18%.% who think Covid-19 deaths are being deliberately reduced or hidden,by 2019 general election voteLabourConservativeLib Dem42%17-20 July29%13%38%20-22 May25%19%% who think Covid-19 deaths are being deliberately exaggerated,by 2019 general election vote21%18%18%17-20 July15%20-22 May11%8%Base: 635 UK residents aged 16-75 who voted Conservative, 645 who voted Labour and 154 who voted Lib Dem in the 2019 general election, interviewed 17-20July, and 659 Conservative voters, 654 Labour voters and 190 Lib Dem voters, interviewed 20-22 May 2020

35% of the public thinkchildren do not transmitCovid-19 as easily asadults, while 44% thinkthey do and 21% saythey don’t know.Younger generations areless likely to believe thatchildren don’t spread thevirus to such an extent,with 31% of millennialsand gen xers believingthis is the case,compared with 40% ofbaby boomers and 45%of the pre-wargeneration.Are the following statements true or false?Children do not spread coronavirus as easily as adultsTrue35%Don’t know21%False44%Children represent only a small proportion of total coronavirus cases, and while it isunclear what role they play in spreading the virus, there is emerging evidence thatsuggests children may in fact transmit Covid-19 as easily as adults.A US study found that children younger than 5 years with mild to moderate cases ofCovid-19 have much higher levels of genetic material for the virus in the nosecompared to older children and adults. This may suggest that the youngest childrentransmit the virus as much as or more than other age groups. And a large study inSouth Korea found that children from 10-19 years old can transmit coronavirus to adultsas well as adults can, although children under 9 were less likely than adults to transmitcoronavirus to their families.Base: 2,237 UK residents aged 16-75, interviewed 17-20 July

More than half thepopulation think shoutingspreads Covid-19 morethan talking, which risesto 64% among the prewar generation and 62%among baby boomers.Again, a significantproportion of thepopulation – almost aquarter – say they don’tknow, while the sameamount think shoutingdoes not spread the virusmore than talking.Are the following statements true or false?Shouting spreads the coronavirus more than talkingTrue54%Don’t knowFalse23%23%The World Health Organisation reports that outbreaks of coronavirus havebeen linked to closed settings where people may be shouting or singing, butnotes that more research is needed to assess

Coronavirus symptoms: how certain is the UK about the key signs? Knowledge of the symptoms of Covid-19 will be key if the lockdown restrictions are to be relaxed further, as people will need to remain vigilant as they resume aspects of normal life. But while most people know some of the main symptoms of Covid-19, far fewer are able to recognise all three identified by the NHS. There is a high .

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