ANDREW PARR & PARKER TEED STATE BOARD OF EDUCATION .

2014-15 Assessment ResultsA N D R E W PA R R & PA R K E R T E E DS TAT E B O A R D O F E D U C AT I O NSEPTEMBER 10, 2015

Low Statewide Participation Rates Three elements of an accountability ‘perfect storm’ New assessment system Recently adopted learning standards Organized opposition to testing in general, the Smarter Balancedand Common Core Result – an unprecedented number of schools, districts,and the state did not meet the 95 percent participationexpectation.Washington State Board of Education

Washington State Board of Education

Regression shows lower poverty is predictive of higher refusal ratesRegression Based on Preliminary 11th Grade Math SBA Refusal RatesWashington State Board of Education

Regression also shows larger school size is predictive of higher refusal ratesRegression Based on Preliminary 11th Grade Math SBA Refusal RatesWashington State Board of Education

Washington State Board of Education

Washington State Board of Education

Washington State Board of Education

Source: http://www.nasbe.org/wp-content/uploads/Lorenzo Opt-Outs-by-State.pdfWashington State Board of Education

Comprehensive High Schools Meeting 95%Participation TargetsSchoolState of WashingtonMet 95 Percent Participation TargetComprehensive High SchoolsWashington State Board of EducationRAINIER SENIOR HSBRIDGEPORT HSBREWSTER HSSUNNYSIDE HSWEST VALLEY HSLIBERTY HSWAHLUKE HSEnrollment FRL %271222242179788512554047100981004342100

Comprehensive High Schools with Very LowParticipation RatesState of WashingtonVery Low Participation RatesComprehensive High SchoolsXXX XXXX X XX XXXXXWashington State Board of Education

Test Refusals – School Level Of the 2162 schools with data, about 20% (464) did notmeet federal participation rates. Over 95% of high schools failed to meet part rate requirements. Per Federal requirements, Test refusals are identified as non-participants Students are identified as Not Meeting Standard Factor into the denominator for Proficiency rate calculationsRESULT – schools with low participation rates will havelow proficiency rates.Washington State Board of Education

School Level Differences For elementary and middle schools, the participation rateswere variable but were mostly high. For high schools, the participation rates were mostly verylow.School LevelELA Participation %LowMath Participation %High MedianLowHigh MedianAverage Participation %LowHigh 95869595590145871658817HighWashington State Board of Education

Within District Differences School by school participation rates vary considerablywithin districts but are mostly very low.SchoolHIGH SCHOOL 1HIGH SCHOOL 2HIGH SCHOOL 3HIGH SCHOOL 4HIGH SCHOOL 5HIGH SCHOOL 6HIGH SCHOOL 7HIGH SCHOOL 8HIGH SCHOOL 9HIGH SCHOOL 10HIGH SCHOOL 11HIGH SCHOOL 12HIGH SCHOOL 13HIGH SCHOOL 12631375484Washington State Board of EducationFRL %1926313918341547407080606781ELAParticipation 5 5 5 568820343045726890MATHParticipation 5 5 5 5 5 52318152632346187AverageParticipation 5 5 5 5 561519242839536588

School Testing Participation Rates Generating new data using the Index data file and 2015AYP data files from the Washington Report Card. Using statistical analyses (multiple regression) to: Estimate how schools should perform on participation rate based onschool size and FRL ratesCompare the actual participation rate to the estimated participation rateIdentify the schools who performed best (and worst) after consideringsize and poverty level. Basically, regression tells us who participated at higher (orlower) rates than the data would predict?Washington State Board of Education

Power of Multiple RegressionThis is a moderate and negativecorrelation (R -0.464).This is a moderate and positivecorrelation (r 0.403).Participation rates are lower atlarger schools.Participation rates are lower at lowpoverty schools.Washington State Board of Education

High Schools that Exceeded PredictedParticipation agePart.PredictedRateResidual( /‐)VANCOUVER SDSKYVIEW HS2003298686863750MEAD SDMEAD SENIOR HS1573239189904149BETHEL SDKAPOWSIN HS1811369085874047LAKE STEVENS SDLAKE STEVENS SHS1779237491823844YAKIMA SDEISENHOWER HS1987709594945143OAK HARBOR SDOAK HARBOR HS1540359085884642CHENEY SDCHENEY HS1169419495955441YELM SDYELM HS1260409592935440BETHEL SDBETHEL HS1578479288905139ARLINGTON SDARLINGTON HS1621268479824339BETHEL SDSPANAWAY LAKE HS1710518985875037STEILACOOM HIST. SD STEILACOOM HS875188991905337ORTING SDORTING HS740339594955837PUYALLUP SDEMERALD RIDGE HS1528237780794236PASCO SDCHIAWANA HS2335697590824636Washington State Board of Education

High Schools that Did Not MeetParticipation Rate PredictionsDistrictEASTMONT SDTACOMA SDSEATTLE PSSEATTLE PSTACOMA SDHIGHLINE SDFEDERAL WAY SDSEATTLE PSFEDERAL WAY SDSEATTLE PSKENT SDISSAQUAH SDKENNEWICK SDABERDEEN SDKENNEWICK SDSchoolEASTMONT SHSFOSS HSNATHAN HALE HSINGRAHAM HSOAKLAND HSHIGHLINE HSDECATUR HSCLEVELAND HST JEFFERSON HSGARFIELD HSKENTLAKE HSLIBERTY SR HSKENNEWICK HSWEATHERWAX HSSOUTHRIDGE HSWashington State Board of 05549ELAPart.922 584920203021 58 5343421MathPart. 521 5 531147268 5 5 5717 5AveragePart.PredictedRateResidual722 564017142815 56 40‐39‐37

How Did Some High SchoolsAchieve the High Participation Rates? Skyview High School: 50 percentage points above expected‘Administrators and staff emphasized the importance of doing well forenrolling in college down the road. School staff bent over backwards toget students in front of the computers used for testing.’ Cheney High School: 95% Participation‘Administrators and staff developed a test administration plan topersonalize the experience for our students. Our teachers takeownership in the success of their students.’ West Valley High School: 95% Participation‘Staff made a concerted effort to reduce ‘testing stress’ for students andcommunicated the benefits of doing well on the test to the students. Thestudents wanted to do well on the tests.’Washington State Board of Education

Questions?If you have questions, please contact:Andrew Parr at andrew.parr@k12.wa.usParker Teed at parker.teed@k12.wa.usWashington State Board of Education

Additional Information The following slides introduce other analysesincluded in the board packet on pages 114 to 119 ofthe board packet. These analyses can be found atwww.sbe.wa.gov/materials.phpWashington State Board of Education

Washington State Board of Education

Washington State Board of Education

Washington State Board of Education

Washington State Board of Education

5th Grade Science The percentage of students Meeting Standards declined in2015 from 2014 for all student groups. The Targeted Subgroup members showed the greatestdecline.5th Grade SciencePercent Change from 2012 to 2015ALL Students (78,520)‐4.4Asian (4543)‐1.3White (43,931)‐3.2Two or More (5,485)‐4.1Hispanic/Latino (17,506)‐5.6Black/African American (3453)‐6.7Hawaiian/Pacific Islander (828)‐9.1American Indian/Alaskan Native (1,179)‐11.7‐25‐20‐15‐10Percent ChangeWashington State Board of Education‐50TargetedSubgroupMembers

8th Grade Science The achievement gap in science is increasing because thedeclines for the Targeted Subgroup members are largerthan the other groups.8th Grade SciencePercent Change from 2012 to 2015ALL Students (78,795)‐8.6Asian (5,977)‐2.6Two or More (5,081)‐5.5White (45,404)‐6.9Hawaiian/Pacific Islander (816)‐8.3Hispanic/Latino (16,561)‐13.1Black/African American (3.471)‐16.7American Indian/Alaskan Native (1,230)‐23.1‐25‐20‐15‐10Percent ChangeWashington State Board of Education‐50TargetedSubgroupMembers

Comparison of MSP and SBACThe percentages of studentsmeeting standard on the 2015SBAC ELA are 10 to 20 percentagepoints lower than 2014 MSPReading percentages.The percentages of studentsmeeting standard on the 2015SBAC Math are 7 to 18 percentagepoints lower than the comparable2014 MSP Math percentages.PERCENT MEETING STANDARDMSPM S P M AT H A N D S BAC M AT 53.956.756.8200PERCENT MEETING STANDARDM S P R EA D I N G A N D S BAC E L 7.848.055.946.1200GRADE 3GRADE 4GRADE 5GRADE 6GRADE 7Washington State Board of EducationGRADE 8GRADE 3GRADE 4GRADE 5GRADE 6GRADE 7GRADE 8

SBAC ELA and Math The performance on the SBAC ELA increases from thelower grades to the upper grades The performance on the SBAC Math decreases from thelower grades to the upper gradesPERCENT MEETING STANDARD ‐ SBACPERCENT MEETING .756.848.045.548.046.1GRADE 7GRADE 8200GRADE 3GRADE 4Washington State Board of EducationGRADE 5GRADE 6

Questions?If you have questions, please contact:Andrew Parr at andrew.parr@k12.wa.usParker Teed at parker.teed@k12.wa.usWashington State Board of Education

Washington State Board of Education . 5th Grade Science Percent Change from 2012 to 2015. Targeted Subgroup Members. 23.1 16.7 . points lower than 2014 MSP Reading percentages. The percentages of students meeting standard on the 2015 SBAC Math are 7 to 18 percentage