Original (2010) Revised (2018) - SimBio

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Original (2010)Revised (2018)Section 1: Why does ClimateChange Matter?Section 1: Why does ClimateChange Matter?yyGlobal Warming: A Hot Topicyy Data from diverse biological systemsyyTemperature is Criticalyy Temperature impacts importantdemonstrate the importance ofbiological processes, e.g., spread oftemperature on performance acrossdisease vectors, species richnessscales:yy Molecules (enzymes)yy Individuals (adult body size)yy Populations (population growth rate)yy Regions (species richness)yy Temperature can affect performanceat population level (New SimulatedExperiment adapted from butterflyexercise previously in Section 5)yy Key elements of a performance curve(New Test-Your-UnderstandingInteractive)yyTemperature Drives PerformanceAcross Biological Scalesyy Performance curves from otherbiological scales:yy Organismal (adult body size)yy Molecular (enzymes)OTHER CHANGES TO SECTION 1: Edited text andquestions throughout. Added 4 instant-feedback questions and 2graded questions. 2018, SimBio. All Rights Reserved.1

Original (2010)Revised (2018)Section 2: Detecting ClimateChangeSection 2: Detecting ClimateChangeyyThe Earth’s Climate is DynamicyyThe Earth’s Climate is DynamicyyClimate vs. WeatheryyClimate vs. WeatheryyDetecting a Trend yy Signal StrengthyyExtension: Regression analysisyy Noiseyy Series LengthyyWhere to Seek Evidence ofClimate Change?yy Predicted changesyyThe Temperature InstrumentalRecordyySpatial patternsyyExtension: measuring temperatureyyGlobal MeanyyExtension: time seriesyy1,300 Years of TemperatureyyIntroduction to proxiesyyOther Indicators of Climate ChangeyyA Coherent Picture of Climate Changeyy Anomalies (New)yyDetecting a Trend yy Noiseyy Series Lengthyy Signal StrengthyyEliminated data collectionyySimplified by removing p-valuesyy Climate variability across scales (New)yyIs Earth’s Climate Warming?yy The climate system (New Interactive Diagram)yy Predicting climate system responses towarming. (New Interactive Diagram)yyBest Evidence of Change: SurfaceTemperatureyy Instrumental record, global means (Updated)yy Instrumental record, spatial patterns (Updated)yyMore Evidence of Change fromProxiesyy Comparing proxy records (New Interactive Diagram)yyWhat Do Other Components ofthe Climate System Show?yy Cryosphere (sea ice, glaciers, snow) (Updated)yy Extension: snow cover decline (New)yy Hydrosphere/hydrologic cycle (New interactive diagram)yy Sea level rise (Updated) and ocean heat content (New)yy Changes in biosphere - growing seasonchanges in U.S. (New interactive map)yyA Coherent Picture of ClimateChangeOTHER CHANGES TO SECTION 2: Edited text andquestions throughout. 2018, SimBio. All Rights Reserved.2

Original (2010)Revised (2018)Section 3: Earth’s Climate andClimate ModelsSection 3: Earth’s Climate andClimate ModelsyyA Simple Climate Modelyy Black-body model for Planet XyyDistanceyySolar OutputyyAlbedoyyGreenhouse gasesyyExtension: sister planetsyyFeedbacks to the Climate Systemyy Ice-albedo feedbackyy Long-term C cycleyyMore Complex Physical Modelsyy Key features of General Circulation ModelsyyPutting it All Togetheryy Model refinementsyyExtension: El Niño / La NiñayyModel Verificationyy Reconstructions versus observationsyyClimate Models: Why and Howyy Black-body, defined (New Interactive Diagram)yy Extension: Shortwave vs. longwave radiation (New)yyModeling Temperature: Irradiationyy Black-body model for Earth (Revised)yy Distanceyy Solar outputyyModeling Temperature: Albedoyy Albedo of ice vs. forests (New Interactive Diagram)yy Extension: Drivers of albedoyyModeling Temperature: GreenhouseGasesyy Greenhouse gases, defined (New Narrated Video)yy Extension: Venus, Mercury and Marscompared (Revised)yyFeedbacks to the Climate Systemyy Ice-albedo feedback (New Interactive Diagram)yy Cloud feedbacks (New)yy Extension: Additional Feedbacks (New)yyEarth’s Energy Budgetyy Earth’s Energy Budget (New Narrated Video)yySophisticated Climate Modelsyy GCMs summarized (New Narrated Video)yy Emergent properties of GCMs (New NarratedVideo)yy Extension: El Niño / La Niñayy Extension: Polar vortex (New)yy Eliminated text on multiple components of GCMsyyRecreating Historic Climateyy Model verification (Updated)OTHER CHANGES TO SECTION 3: Edited text andquestions throughout. 2018, SimBio. All Rights Reserved.3

Original (2010)Revised (2018)Section 4: Humans and ClimateChangeSection 4: Humans and ClimateChangeyyAttribution of Recent ClimateChangeyyAttribution of Recent ClimateChangeyy Natural vs. anthropogenic forcingsyy Extension: Attribution vs. detection (Revised)yy SimBio’s simple attribution modelyy Attribution relies on models (New)yyCan Solar Variation ExplainRecent Warming?yy SimBio model vs. observationsyyCan Greenhouse Gases ExplainRecent Warming?yy Keeling curveyy SimBio model vs. observationsyyCan Human Actions ExplainRecent Warming?yy Extension: Milankovitch cyclesyyClimate Change in the 21stCenturyyy SimBio model forecastyy Model uncertaintiesyy Extension: El Niño / La Niñayy Extension: North Atlantic OscillationyyFuture Drivers of Climate Changeyy IPCC emission scenariosyy Projected changesyySpatial Distribution ofTemperature Changeyy Extension: Predicted precipitation changesyy Removed SimBio’s simple modelyyHow Do Natural Forcings AffectClimate?yy Volcanic emissions, variation in solar output andorbital variations as forcings (Updated)yy Extension: Milankovitch cycles (Updated)yy Drivers of glacial cycles (New)yy Natural forcings role evaluated with NASA’s GISSmodel output (New Interactive Diagram)yyHow Do Anthropogenic ForcingsAffect Climate?yy Land-use change, aerosols, ozone, and greenhouseas forcings (Updated)yy Keeling curveyyWhy is Earth’s Climate Warming?yy All potential forcings evaluated with NASA’s GISSmodel output (New Interactive Diagram)yy Extension: Summary of recent climate forcings (New)yy Human fingerprints on climate change(New Interactive Diagram)yyProjection Future Changesyy Key sources of uncertainty, projected changes inmean temperature (New Narrated Video)yy Spatial patterns (Updated)yyEffects of Warming Cascade ThroughClimate Systemyy (New Interactive Diagram)yyFeedbacks Suggest Tipping Pointsyy Extension: Critical tipping points (New)OTHER CHANGES TO SECTION 4: Edited text andquestions throughout. Moved discussion of effects on people toSection 5. 2018, SimBio. All Rights Reserved.4

Original (2010)Revised (2018)Section 5: BiologicalConsequences of Climate ChangeSection 5: BiologicalConsequences of Climate ChangeyySpecies Must Respond to ClimateChangeyyCan Changes in Phenology AffectPopulation Growth?yy Simulation: Trophic MismatchyyClimate Change and FitnessyyHow Does Climate Change AffectSpecies Distribution?yyEvolutionary Responsesyy Simulation: rate of environmental changeyy Extension: Performance curves evolveyy Simulation: initial genetic variationyy Generation timeyyClimate Change will Affect Lifeyy Extension: Evolutionary constraintsyyClimate Change Will Pose GraveThreats for Many Species (New)yy Altered phenology (Revised)yy Predict potential phenotypic mismatch of caribouand forage (New Interactive Diagram)yy Compare predictions to data (New)yyDirect and Indirect Effects of ClimateChangeyy Effects on species, people (New)yy Extension: Fertilization effectyy Extension: Ocean acidificationyy Cascading effects of sea-ice decline(New Interactive Diagram)yyHow will life respond? (New)yy Four potential responses (Updated)yy Risk to tropical vs. temperate species(New Interactive Diagram)yyIndividuals May Acclimate (New)yySpecies Ranges May Shift (Revised)yy Latitudinal Range Shifts (New Narrated Video)yyWho Can “Keep Up” With ClimateChange?yy Climate Velocity (New Narrated Video)yyPopulations May Evolve (New)yy Salmon example replaces fruit flyyyWhich Populations Can Evolve FastEnough?yy Simulation: rate of environmental change (Revised)yy Extension: Performance curves evolveyy Simulation: initial genetic variation (Revised)yy Simulation: generation time (New)yyThe Changes to Come (New)OTHER CHANGES TO SECTION 5: Edited text andquestions throughout. Deleted butterfly phenology simulationand fitness discussion. Moved simulation in which performancecurve is generated to Section 1. 2018, SimBio. All Rights Reserved.5

2018, SimBio. All Rights Reserved. 3 Original (2010) Revised (2018) Section 3: Earth’s Climate and Climate Models Section 3: Earth’s Climate and

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