Payments Plus Q2 2021 - Oliver Wyman

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Q2 2021PAYMENTSPLUS

HOW THE REBOUND ISRESHAPING PAYMENTSAs the spring season blossoms, there are more signs that the economy —and with it, the payments ecosystem — is gaining greater traction.Countries around the world are accelerating their vaccine rollouts, with theUnited Kingdom and the United States leading the way among large nations.With greater vaccination rates, more businesses are reopening, more peopleare booking travel, and in-person sporting events are resuming. Oliver Wymanis surveying consumers in 10 countries to track their attitudes and future plans,and the data are clear: Improvements in public health drive greater consumerconfidence and greater spending. In this issue of Payments Plus we sharesome of the survey results, with much more detail available on our website.We are also seeing greater confidence among investors. Through our workwith private equity firms, we have had the opportunity to deeply exploremany payment subsectors, including business-to-business payments,cross-border payments, early wage access, payments fraud, and prepaidproducts. In every case, the market is robust and growing, supported bymacroeconomic tailwinds.Yet the rebound in payments activity isn’t uniform. Card-not-present spendingis far outpacing card-present purchases, and debit transactions are outpacingcredit card spending. In fact, for the first time, total purchase volume of debitcards exceeded that of credit cards in the United States.In this issue of Payments Plus we profile a selection of our client work aroundthe world. As always, we welcome your thoughts and feedback.Best wishesNuno Monteiro,Partner, São Paulo

Payments Plus / Market DevelopmentsCARD DESIGNAND BRANDING

Q2 2021 Customer Acquisition and Retention Competitive DifferentiationCredit cards are one of the most fiercelycompetitive markets in payments, withincumbents and an ever-increasing numberof fintech startups all vying for a place incustomers’ wallets. In this environment, cardissuers are constantly challenged to developcompelling, differentiated propositions toacquire new customers and build strongerrelationships with existing ones.Lippincott, the brand and innovation consultancyarm of Oliver Wyman, has deep experienceapplying design thinking to projects for clientsacross the financial services industry. When itcomes to card design, Lippincott works closelywith both clients and card manufacturers tounlock the latest possibilities, from card formatand materials to finishes and personalization, tocreate a card that customers would love to own.Product names and visual identities are powerfullevers to build engagement and an emotionalconnection with customers, both at the time ofinitial consideration and as part of an ongoingtop-of-wallet relationship. As a physical extensionof the cardholder, cards make a statement andserve as a point of pride. Designing them with thebrand’s personality in mind can bring success.Over the past few years, Lippincott has workedwith payments providers to reimagine carddesigns across diverse markets, products, andcustomers. The work has included refining abank’s card portfolio with a new design themefor global consistency, creating a name anddesign for a new offering, and redesigningcards to align with regional issuers' needs.

Payments Plus / Market DevelopmentsENHANCINGMERCHANTSERVICES

Q2 2021 Commercial Effectiveness Distribution ModelsIndependent sales organizations are a keydistribution channel for merchant acquirersin many markets. They typically run highlyefficient sales engines to source and convertsmall business leads through a combinationof outbound tele-sales and “boots on theground” field agents, selling a relativelycommoditized point-of-sale terminal andacquiring proposition. While this approach hasbeen successful in the past, small businessesincreasingly are demanding differentiatedsector-specific services such as point-of-salesystem-integrations and value-added servicesthat are relevant for their customers. At thesame time, as new fintech players enter themarket with seamless digital sales journeystargeting the same small businesses, the abilityto reach decision-makers quickly and efficientlyis increasingly critical.Oliver Wyman was recently engaged by anindependent sales organization (ISO) to performa rapid assessment of its go-to-market strategy, inparticular to identify attractive market segmentsto focus on and the key levers to win. This includedprimary research with small businesses to identifyneeds and pain points, supplemented by pricebenchmarking and insights on best practices inother markets.We concluded with an agreed set of focusareas, including pragmatic actions the teamcould take in the short term to make immediateprogress, together with investments to createnew capabilities with a longer-term payoff.Implementation is now underway, and the clienthas generated demonstrable improvementin EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes,depreciation, and amortization).

Payments Plus / Market DevelopmentsMONETIZINGPAYMENTSDATA

Q2 2021 New Revenue Sources Emerging Use CasesThe industry has long aspired to use paymentsdata to capture greater value, but few banksor payment providers have taken meaningfulaction thus far. A combination of operationaland product siloes, technology barriers, anda lack of awareness of client expectations allcontribute to the general inertia.However, ISO 20022 and the growing competitivethreat from challengers are creating a newurgency around the art of the possible. Incorporate banking, examples include cashforecasts based on real-time data and singledashboard views of real-time balancesacross multiple institutions. In retail banking,opportunities to monetize payments dataare often tied to paying for greater speedor earlier access to funds (by consumers ormerchants) or using data to identifyincremental sales opportunities.Celent, the subscription research arm ofOliver Wyman, is advising technology vendorson market opportunities for monetizingpayments data, with primary research as a keycomponent. Based on interviews with seniorleaders in large corporate banks and corporatetreasurers globally, along with other proprietaryinsights, we are building a granular view ofthe opportunity in the corporate banking andpayments space. Our recommendations will helpbanks tailor their investment theses and productdevelopment roadmaps to the use cases that arebest able to improve client retention and driverevenue growth.

Payments Plus / Market DevelopmentsINVESTINGIN PAYMENTS

Q2 2021 Payments Fraud Cross-Border PaymentsPrivate equity investors continue searchingfor opportunities in the payments and fintechsectors, attracted by strong macroeconomictailwinds and continued outperformance bypublicly traded entities. We are the commercialdiligence advisor of choice to private equityclients as they evaluate potential investments,underpinned by our deep specialism withinpayments’ many subsectors and our ability toquickly deploy a highly qualified team worldwide.In one recent engagement, Oliver Wymansupported the growth fund of a major EUprivate equity firm to evaluate a target inpayments fraud prevention. The business is anext-generation provider with strong machinelearning capabilities, well positioned to takemarket share from rules-based incumbentswith a combination of higher approval ratesand lower losses. In an accelerated timeframe,we sized the market, evaluated the mostcritical dynamics, and reviewed the competitivelandscape, focusing in on the target’s positioningthrough an extensive primary research programwith key customers.In another engagement, Oliver Wymansupported a leading foreign exchange specialistand its private equity owners in preparing acommercial vendor due diligence report coveringthe business, market size, projected growth, thecompetitive environment, and an assessment ofmanagement’s plan. In particular, we highlightedhow foreign exchange specialists continue togain share from banks in high-value account-toaccount international payments. Other teamsare working with payments companies, posttransaction, to accelerate their go-to-marketplans and lower some core operating expenses.

Payments Plus / Market DevelopmentsOPENBANKING

Q2 2021 Payments Innovation RegulationOpen banking is coming to financial services asregulators seek to foster competition, innovation,and financial inclusion. Open banking allowscustomers to navigate their financial and personallives seamlessly across multiple providers, byconnecting data and facilitating transactions fromany source.It is being implemented with differentrequirements and at different speeds around theworld, however. The United Kingdom is one ofthe early adopter markets and now has hundredsof third-party providers. More recently, Brazilwent live with the first phase of its open bankingimplementation, spurring incumbents to enhancetheir own capabilities.Oliver Wyman has been at the forefront ofthis transformation around the world, helpingto design open banking ecosystem rules andsupporting clients as they pursue the businessopportunities that are created.In one engagement, we have been workingwith a digital bank to define its open bankingstrategy. This includes mapping its “crownjewels,” identifying customers’ unmet needs, andcombining this with our deep understanding offinancial services and open banking regulationand opportunities. We have identified a rangeof solutions using data and services to createa differentiated value proposition centered onclient needs.

Payments Plus / PerspectivesTRACKINGCONSUMERSENTIMENTCOVID-19 has radically altered how consumers shopand their underlying outlooks. Oliver Wyman Forum’sGlobal Consumer Sentiment Survey tracks their pulseand distills insights and lessons for companies in variousindustries, capturing consumption themes and decisions,current financial wellness, motivations, and prioritiesacross a broad cross-section of consumers.PerspectivesOliver Wyman Forum’s GlobalConsumer Sentiment Surveyhas generated responses frommore than 56,000 consumersin total across 10 countriesfrom August 2020 to present,with coverage from NorthAmerica (the United States andMexico), Europe (Germany,France, Italy, Spain, and theUnited Kingdom), Asia-Pacific(Australia and China) andSouth America (Brazil). Itspans overarching consumermotivations, behaviors, needs,and also key purchase decisionsin the healthcare, banking,transportation, retail, telecom,and mobility industries.Overall spendingConsumers are adjusting their spending during thepandemic in many ways.How was your monthly spend changed (overall)? (%)93141Large reduction(Reduce by 50%)Slight reduction(Reduce by 10-50%)Slight increase(Increase by 10-50%)Large increase(Increase by 50%)15 3About the same( /-10% change)% of respondents who increased their essential spend1(housing, grocery, medication etc.)11Italy141416Spain Germany France171818UKAustraliaUS2628Mexico China33Brazil1. Respondents from Mexico, China and Brazil are 2X more likely to say theywill increase their savings rate following the pandemic vs. respondents fromother countries

Q2 2021GroceryGrocery shopping has shifted toward online and omnichannel purchases in order to limit contact. Whenconsumers do shop for groceries in person, they prefer to shop alone (without family) and to combinemultiple grocery trips into one, to minimize the risk of getting infected with COVID-19. These behaviorsshow up clearly in payments data, with fewer transactions but higher average ticket sizes.1 in 6consumers ordered groceriesonline and either used curbsidepickup or had groceries delivered.(vs. 1 in 10 pre-pandemic)1 in 230%consumers shopped for groceriesin store; however, over 85% of suchconsumers shopped by themselveswithout their family.of consumers found a newdigital solution or used a servicefor groceries during COVID.Over 50% of consumers plan tomaintain the new approachdeveloped after COVID.(vs. 60% pre-pandemic)Everyday BankingRespondents across all countries plan to increase use of digital solutions for their banking needs in apost pandemic world. 18%China 25%Mexico 8%USBrazil 23%Spain 17% 11%ItalyFrance 8%Germany 4% 5%AustraliaUK 7%20%30%40%50%% of respondents who completed a transaction digitally during COVID% of respondents who plan to complete a transaction digitally after COVIDSource: Oliver Wyman Consumer Sentiment Survey 2020-202160%70%80%

Payments Plus / InsightsTRANSFORMATIONIN CARD PAYMENTSIn the payments world, 2020 began on the same courseas in the past but ended years ahead of schedule.Entire industries were forced to rapidly embrace thetransformation to digital as consumers migrated fromin person shopping to omnichannel purchases usingelectronic forms of payment.We witnessed a dichotomy in card payment trajectories:While both credit card and debit card volumes grew inlockstep in previous years, in 2020 credit card volumesdeclined across several markets due to a drop indiscretionary spending (especially T&E), whereas debitcard volumes remained resilient, driven by spending onessentials such as groceries. This divergence is mostpronounced in the United Kingdom (see exhibit 1).InsightsOliver Wyman continuouslyinvests in a broad range ofproprietary analyses to developnew insights. Our intellectualcapital draws from primaryresearch with consumers,small businesses, issuers, andmerchants, as well as exclusivepartnerships with a number ofdata providers.In the United States, changes to credit card and debit cardpurchase volumes led to an important milestone. For manyyears, the number of debit card transactions has exceededthe number of credit card transactions, most recently at a70/30 split (see exhibit 2). However, credit cards still hadhigher total spend, supported by materially higher averageticket sizes. That changed in 2020. As spending patternsshifted, so the “lines crossed” with total purchase volumeon debit cards exceeding that on US credit cards for thefirst time (see exhibit 3).

Q2 2021Exhibit 1: Growth of credit card and debit card purchase volumes across key markets (2016-2020)1Credit card paymentsDebit card paymentsCredit card purchase volumes droppedacross several markets140130Debit card purchase volumesremained more alia1. Indexed to 2016 valuesSource: Euromonitor, Oliver Wyman analysisExhibit 2: US credit and debit card transactionvolumes (US billion)6034736777Exhibit 3: US credit and debit card purchasevolumes (US 3.63.32017201820192020DebitSource: Federal Reserve, Visa, Mastercard, American Express,Discover, Oliver Wyman analysis2016Credit2.52017201820192020DebitSource: Federal Reserve, Visa, Mastercard, American Express,Discover, Oliver Wyman analysis

Payments Plus / Oliver Wyman ReportsOLIVER WYMAN REPORTSOliver Wyman publishesa broad range of pointsof-view across industries.A sample of our recentlyreleased intellectualcapital is shown here.The report images arehyperlinked. Please clickto view or downloadthe document.The Digital FrontierOf Health PromotionAnd PreventionThe Global Risks Report 2021:World Economic ForumFILLINGTHE GAPHow tech companies can bridgethe growing skills gapThe Rise Of Banking AsA ServiceFilling The Gap

Q2 2021MBluePaperCorporate & Investment BanksFINANCIALREGULATIONPOST-INAUGURATIONStriving to Sustain ReturnsWholesale Banking’s impressive returns reflect a decade of repositioning in Markets and IBD.We think improved returns are sustainable. A constructive macro and policy environment isjust one driver. To lift returns even higher, unlock the value of Transaction Banking with a shiftto recurring fees, services-based business models, and enhanced disclosure.February 2021 UpdateOliver Wyman is a global leader in management consulting. For more information, visit www.oliverwyman.com.Oliver Wyman is not authorized or regulated by the PRA or the FCA and is not providing investment advice. Oliver Wyman authors are not research analysts and are neither FCAnor FINRA registered. Oliver Wyman authors have only contributed their expertise on business strategy within the report. Oliver Wyman’s views are clearly delineated.The securities and valuation sections of this report are the work of Morgan Stanley only and not Oliver Wyman.For disclosures specifically pertaining to Oliver Wyman, please see the Disclosure Section located at the end of this report.Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.Financial RegulationPost-InaugurationStriving To Sustain ReturnsImprove Financial PlanningAnd AnalysisIMPROVINGCUSTOMERDECISIONSIN RETAILBANKINGHow behavioral influencing adds economicvalue for both customers and banksRunning Hot: AcceleratingEurope’s Path To ParisImproving CustomerDecisions In Retail BankingCrisis Averted OrOnly Postponed?

Payments Plus / Celent ReportsCELENT REPORTSCelent, a division ofOliver Wyman, is theleading subscriptionresearch and advisoryfirm focused on financialservices technology.Innovation In Banking 2021:A Snapshot Through TheLens Of Model BankWells Fargo: EnablingPartners To OfferFinancial ProductsPayments Network Malaysia:Delivering The Next GenerationOf Real Time PaymentsRBC: Embedding PaymentsFor Businesses

Q2 2021Citi: Making Payments PayFor ClientsSwedbank: ModernizingCard Fraud ManagementAnd ImprovingCustomer ExperienceState of Digital CustomerAcquisition: MuchWork RemainsVaro Bank: Celent ModelBank Of The Year 2021Railsbank: FullStack Banking-As-A-ServiceUsing Open Banking To BuildStronger SME Propositions

Payments Plus / EventsEVENTSFebruaryThe Merchant Advisory Group (MAG) is the leading payments-focusedassociation for merchants in the United States. We spoke at the MAG 2021Mid-Year Conference.Beth Costa moderated a panel titled “Emerging Checkout Experiences ThatConsumers Are Watching.” The panel explored how merchants shouldthink about and plan for upgrading their shopping experiencesto meet consumer expectations in 2021.Rob Mau served as a panelist on “Cybersecurity: Identifying GoodTransactions.” The session centered on merchant strategies to distinguishbetween good transactions and risky ones to optimize authorization rates.MarchWe led a workshop on payments trends for the leadership team of a majorretail brokerage. In a wide-ranging discussion, Partners Josh Gilbert, TonyHayes, and Russell Jones discussed how the changing face of paymentscreates opportunities to improve economics and customer experience, aswell as enhance competitive differentiation.Jason Ekberg participated in a panel discussion, hosted by KBW, on theoutlook for “super apps.” Various companies are actively developing theirversion of a super app intended to be a one-stop destination for all of aconsumer’s financial needs. We discussed the rise of super apps in China andother Asian markets, and their prospects in the United States and Europe.

PAYMENTS BrandPAYMENTS DigitalPAYMENTS StrategyPAYMENTS OperationsPAYMENTS TechnologyPAYMENTS PartnershipsPAYMENTS Due diligencePAYMENTS Data & AnalyticsPAYMENTS Risk managementPAYMENTS Customer ExperiencePAYMENTS Organizational effectiveness

Oliver Wyman is a global leader in management consulting that combines deep industry knowledge withspecialized expertise in strategy, operations, risk management, and organization transformation.For more information, please contact the marketing department by phone at one of the following locations:Americas 1 212 541 8100EMEA 44 20 7333 8333Asia Pacific 65 6510 yright 2021 Oliver WymanAll rights reserved. This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permissionof Oliver Wyman and Oliver Wyman accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Oliver Wyman. This report is not investment advice and shouldnot be relied on for such advice or as a substitute for consultation with professional accountants, tax, legal or financial advisors.Oliver Wyman has made every effort to use reliable, up-to-date and comprehensive information and analysis, but all informationis provided without warranty of any kind, express or implied. Oliver Wyman disclaims any responsibility to update the informationor conclusions in this report. Oliver Wyman accepts no liability for any loss arising from any action taken or refrained from as aresult of information contained in this report or any reports or sources of information referred to herein, or for any consequential,special or similar damages even if advised of the possibility of such damages. The report is not an offer to buy or sell securities or asolicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. This report may not be sold without the written consent of Oliver Wyman.Oliver Wyman — A business of Marsh McLennan

create a card that customers would love to own. Over the past few years, Lippincott has worked with payments providers to reimagine card designs across diverse markets, products, and customers. The work has included refining a bank’s card portfolio with a new

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