Household Travel Survey Final Methodology Report

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MI Travel Counts IIIHousehold Travel SurveyFinal Methodology ReportAuthorsMartha Wilaby, Associate Project DirectorJesse Casas, Project DirectorSeptember 30, 2016Prepared for:The Michigan Department of TransportationVan Wagoner Building425 West Ottawa StreetLansing, MI 48933(517) 373-2090Prepared by:WestatAn Employee-Owned Research Corporation 1600 Research BoulevardRockville, Maryland 20850-3129(301) 251-1500

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Table of ContentsChapterPage1Project Summary and Background.1-12Consultant Team.2-13Survey 3-83-93-93-103-113-123-1445Sampling .Public Awareness .Recruitment.Interviewer Staff and Training .Project Website and Software .Pre- and Post-travel Day Follow-up and Retrieval .Log-only Household Incentives.GPS-based Prompted Recall and Incentives .The Retrieval Survey Process for GPS Households .Survey Flow Chart .Data Collection .4-14.14.24.34.4Schedule.Pilot Study .Spring Data Collection .Fall Data Collection .4-14-14-24-3Data Quality .5-15.15.2Quality Control Plan .Data Checks c Checks Built into Online Instruments .Automated Edit Checks .Upcoding and Cleaning .Item Non-response .Geocoding Methods and Quality Checks.GPS Processing and Checks.Weekly Reports .Data Deliveries .MI Travel Counts IIIFinal Methodology Reportiii5-55-65-85-105-10

Contents (continued)Chapter6PageResults .6-16.16.26.36.46.5Sampling .Recruit Goals Versus Actual by Sample Area .Retrieval Goals Versus Actual by Sample Area .Overall Response Rate .Data .6-16-16-46-66-7Data Weighting .7-17.17.27.37.4Types of Weights .Calculation of Base Weights .Adjustments for Household-level Non-response .Benchmarking .7-17-27-37-5GPS Correction Factors .8-18.18.28.3Correction Factor Plan .Development Process.Applying Corrections .8-18-28-29Lessons Learned and Future Recommendations .9-110Appendices .10-178AppendicesA.B.C.D.E.F.G.H.I.J.K.L.Project Work PlanPublic Awareness PlanRecruitment Script (Web)Recruitment Script (CATI)Final Data Item MemoEnglish Advance LetterEnglish 7- Day PostcardEnglish 14- Day Postcard Reminder 2English Travel LogEnglish Log LetterEnglish Example Travel LogEnglish Long Distance Travel LogMI Travel Counts IIIFinal Methodology Reportiv

Contents RR.SS.TT.UU.VV.WW.XX.YY.ZZ.PageSpanish Advance LetterSpanish Postcard 1Spanish Postcard 2Spanish Travel LogSpanish Log LetterSpanish Example Travel LogSpanish Long Distance Travel LogArabic Advance LetterArabic Postcard Reminder 1Arabic Postcard Reminder 2Arabic Travel LogArabic Log LetterArabic Example Travel LogArabic Long Distance Travel LogInterviewer Training ManualEmail Responses to Frequently Asked QuestionsScreenshots of WebsiteTBW Tutorial for non-GPSTBW Tutorial for GPSRetrieval Script (Web)Retrieval Script (CATI)Data ElementsCodebookText and Email RemindersDiary Survey Methods MemoGPS Survey Methods MemoEnglish MDOT GPS Household Letter (for GPS packets)English GPS Equipment Usage LogEnglish GPS Device Usage and Return InstructionsEnglish GPS Equipment Retrieval LetterSpanish GPS Household Letter (for GPS Packets)Spanish GPS Device Use and Return InstructionsSpanish GPS Equipment Retrieval LetterArabic GPS Household Letter (for GPS Packets)Arabic GPS Device Use and Return InstructionsArabic GPS Equipment Retrieval LetterTrip Mode and Purpose Imputation Procedure MemoPilot ReportSpring Data Collection MemoData Quality Control and Geocoding Procedures MemoMI Travel Counts IIIFinal Methodology Reportv

Contents (continued)AppendicesAAA.BBB.CCC.DDD.EEE.PageFinal Weekly ReportData Delivery MemoFinal Sampling PlanFinal Weighting PlanData Integration GPS Correction Factor PlanTables3-14-14-25-15-26-16-26-36-47-1Primary sampling strata.Data collection schedule .Sample performance rates for pilot; targeted versus actual .Travel modes and maximum speed values .Data deliveries .Recruitment rates by sample area .Retrieval and participation rates by sample area .Number of households, people, and weekday trips by region(weighted).Estimate of weekday person and vehicle trips per household bynumber of people .Base weights for MDOT samples .3-54-14-25-85-106-26-4State map with number of sampled households by sample area .Survey flow chart .Map of number of recruited households by sample area .Map of number of retrieved households by sample area.Weekday trip rates by age .Distribution of weekday trip by purpose for three groups .Means of travel to work by region .Proportion of weekday trips by means of travel by region .Person trips by start time (hour) and general purpose .Percentage of people reporting no travel, Monday-Thursday,2009 NHTS selected states and 2015 res3-13-26-16-26-36-46-56-66-76-8MI Travel Counts IIIFinal Methodology Reportvi6-14

Project Summary and Background1The Michigan Department of Transportation (MDOT) is responsible for the development,maintenance, and application of the statewide passenger travel model and eight Small Urban ModelArea (SUMA) travel demand models as well as coordinating six Transportation Management Areas(TMA) in their model developments.The purpose of the MI Travel Counts III (MTC III) household travel survey, conducted betweenApril and December of 2015, was to provide much-needed travel behavior data for use in thestatewide and regional transportation models. MTC III serves to update the MI Travel Counts(MTC I) survey conducted in 2004–2005 and the MTC II follow-up survey conducted in 2009. InMTC III, 16,276 households across the state provided household demographic information andreported their travel for one day. In addition, 1,325 of the households carried a GPS (globalpositioning system) unit for a three-day period. The Southeast Michigan Council of Governments(SEMCOG), the Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) for Detroit, joined forces with MDOTto collect data from an additional 12,394 households in their region.This report documents the methodology used to carry out the MTC III survey. A separate report,the Travel Characteristics Report, provides information about the travel characteristics of Michiganresidents.MI Travel Counts IIIFinal Methodology Report1-1

Consultant Team2Westat served as the prime data collection contractor for MTC III. Westat is an employee-ownedresearch firm known for the quality of its professional staff in a broad range of research areas,including statistical design, survey research, and program evaluation. The Westat team was led bySusan Swain through the survey design phase of the project. Jesse Casas took over as ProjectDirector through the data collection and data analysis. Martha Wilaby served as the AssociateProject Director. Jeremy Wilhelm and Shawn McCloskey were Project Managers. They were assistedby Westat sampling and weighting statisticians, systems design and development experts, and datacollection and quality control specialists.The Westat team included support from Parsons Brinckerhoff (PB) modelers Rick Donnelly, ChristiWillison, Peter Vovsha, and Sarah Binkowski, and public awareness specialist Darrel Cole. ParsonsBrinckerhoff’s Systems Analysis Group is a national leader in advanced four-step and activity-basedtravel demand models and travel forecasting research, development, application, and interpretation.The group is highly accomplished and world-renowned in the development of regional andstatewide travel demand forecasting models, truck models, and land-use models for MPOs, transitagencies, and state departments of transportation.Also part of the team was Nancy McGuckin of Travel Behavior Associates. Ms. McGuckin hasextensive experience analyzing and reporting on travel behavior data for federal, state, and localpublic agencies. As the sole proprietor of the firm, she specializes in creating information out ofcomplex data sources to help clients understand trends and forecast travel behavior, and she is wellknown for her data briefs, presentations, and visualizations.MI Travel Counts IIIFinal Methodology Report2-1

Survey Design3Michigan residents were invited to participate in MTC III based on a random sample of householdsfrom all residential addresses in 16 sample areas statewide. Households were stratified by size andincome because income can be used as an indicator for vehicle ownership and households withhigher incomes may make more discretionary trips than less-wealthy households with the samenumber of vehicles. A map with the number of the sampled households by area can be seen inFigure 3-1.Participants completed a web- or phone-based recruitment survey, were assigned a travel date, andwere then asked to report the details of their travel in the web-based retrieval survey or report theirtravel by phone. Some households were offered the opportunity to participate in a global positioningsystem (GPS) technology component of the study. In the GPS subsample, all household membersaged 16–75 were asked to carry a wearable GPS device for 3 days.It was important that all prospective participants be provided the ability to participate in the surveyand to note that not all Michigan residents are proficient in the English language. The three mostcommonly spoken languages in Michigan are English, Spanish, and Arabic. The website text andsurvey materials were translated into Spanish and Arabic by a professional translation firm. A taglinewas added to the bottom of the English recruitment letter in Spanish and Arabic, referringrespondents to the webpages where the translated materials could be downloaded. The firm was alsoavailable to translate if a respondent called or emailed needing assistance in completing either therecruitment or retrieval survey.A pilot study was conducted from January to March of 2015. The main data collection wasconducted in two phases. There was a spring data collection beginning in April 2015, followed aftera break in the summer by a fall data collection beginning in September 2015. The Project Work Plancontaining the project schedule can be found in Appendix A.MI Travel Counts IIIFinal Methodology Report3-1

Figure 3-1.State map with number of sampled households by sample areaMI Travel Counts IIIFinal Methodology Report3-2

3.1SamplingWestat used address-based sampling (ABS) to obtain a representative sample of households for eachof the 16 MDOT sample areas. The sampling frame was a database of addresses created byMarketing Systems Group (MSG) from the U.S. Postal Service’s (USPS’s) Computerized DeliverySequence (CDS) file. Westat used MSG’s geocoding for the initial frame selection, but re-geocodedall addresses in the frame to confirm location before final sample selection. In addition to containingnon-vacant addresses, the sampling frame included vacant residential addresses in each region exceptin areas where the vacancy rate was found to be higher than generally found in other areas across thestate. P.O. Box addresses were excluded from the sampling frame, except in the Northern MichiganRural Area, where P.O. Boxes are often the only way for households to receive mail. The samplingframe also included throwback addresses (i.e., street addresses for which mail is redirected by USPSto a specified P.O. Box).The MTC III target population excluded individuals living in group quarters, which is defined as aplace where people live or stay in a group living arrangement that is owned or managed by an entityor organization providing housing and/or services for the residents. These services may includecustodial or medical care and other types of assistance, and residence is commonly restricted tothose receiving these services. Group quarters include places such as college residence halls,residential treatment centers, skilled nursing facilities, group homes, military barracks, correctionalfacilities, and worker dormitories. The MTC III target population also excluded individuals stayingin transient housing such as camp grounds, marinas, nonprofit lodgings (e.g., YMCAs, youthhostels), and commercial hotels and motels.After defining the target population, the second step in developing a sample design was to considerthe analysis goals of the survey and how these determine the desired number of completed cases.The MTC III survey data will be used to develop transportation planning models for 16 sub-stateareas. If a single statewide sample were to have been selected for MTC III by using simple randomsampling, the sample sizes in the less populous planning areas might have been too small to estimatethe area’s model parameters with the desired degree of precision. However, the use of stratifiedsampling, where the first level of stratification corresponds to the 16 areas for which transportationmodels were developed, permitted the size of the sample to be specified for each transportationmodel area. Thus, the sample sizes for less populous areas could be increased by sampling them at ahigher rate relative to the sampling rates for more populous areas.MI Travel Counts IIIFinal Methodology Report3-3

Within each transportation model area, some types of households have lower response rates thanother types of households. For example, households with four or more persons have a higherresponse burden than do smaller households, and it is Westat’s experience that they have lowerresponse rates. By creating secondary strata based on the prevalence of demographic characteristicsassociated with low response rates, Westat directed additional data collection efforts to sub-stratawhere it was needed to compensate for low response rates and away from sub-strata where it wasnot needed. Westat refers to secondary strata that have either a high or a low prevalence ofcharacteristics correlated with low response rates as high-density strata and low-density strata,respectively.In each sample area, Westat selected a stratified sample of addresses consisting of a high-densitystratum and a low-density stratum. The high-density stratum contained a higher concentration ofhard-to-reach households than the low-density stratum. Oversampling the high-density stratumhelped in achieving specified sample size targets for post-stratification cells defined by respondentcharacteristics, such as household size and income.During the sampling process, addresses were randomly assigned a day of week and a release groupfor the initial mail-out. Assigning addresses with a day of week helped balance travel across thetravel week, Monday through Thursday. Release groups were used to manage the release of thesample and subsequently the flow of completed households throughout the field period. Westatreleased addresses on an arranged schedule based on expected response rates. A reserve sample wasdrawn at the same time the main sample was drawn as insurance in case response rates were lowerthan anticipated. Samples for the pilot and spring data collection were drawn at the same time.Westat used the results of the spring data collection to inform the amount of sample and frequencyof release groups required for the fall data collection. Table 3-1 displays the primary sampling stratafor MTC III.MI Travel Counts IIIFinal Methodology Report3-4

Table 3-1.Primary sampling strataSample areaSoutheast Michigan Council ofGovernments (SEMCOG)minus Washtenaw County(WATS)Southern Michigan RuralNorthern Michigan RuralSmall CitiesGrand Valley MetropolitanCouncil (GVMC)Tri-County Regional PlanningCommission (TCRPC)Genesee County MetropolitanPlanning Commission(GCMPC)Great Lakes Bay Region(GLBR)Washtenaw AreaTransportation Study (WATS)Kalamazoo AreaTransportation Study (KATS)West Michigan MetropolitanTransportation PlanningProgram (WestPlan)Jackson Area ComprehensiveTransportation Study (JACTS)Twin Cities AreaTransportation Study(TwinCATS) andNiles/Buchanan/Cass AreaTransportation Study (NATS)1Macatawa Area CoordinatingCouncil (MACC)Battle Creek AreaTransportation Study (BCATS)Traverse City (TVC)TOTALHousing units (occupied)2 Sample size3Statewide model1,707,565386,208306,995130,357Urban model areas% Total housing units bined: a minimum number of samples will be taken in each model area to ensure that specific trip length parameters can becalculated for each of the model areas.2Source: 2010 Decennial Census.3Source: MDOT Sample Size Determination Analysis.MI Travel Counts IIIFinal Methodology Report3-5

3.2Public AwarenessThe public awareness campaign for MTC III was an effective tool to reach and engage audiencesthat may not otherwise have been involved in the survey data collection effort, and to bringawareness to the overall project. People who were asked to participate may have been more likely todo so because they had been exposed to the survey through various public awareness tools andstrategies. Branding helped with recognition in that the same logo was used for all three MTC datacollections.Social media sites were leveraged to raise exposure of the survey, including the creation of accountson Facebook and Twitter. These sites provided links to the public project website (and vice versa).In comparing the Facebook and Twitter accounts, the Facebook page seemed less effective. It had atotal of only 72 “likes” by the end of data collection. PB staff made an average of one post a day tothe Facebook page, which included a mix of original posts and posts from other partners. PB notedthat the Facebook page was necessary for the survey to have a presence online but it is increasinglyhard to get grassroots engagement through Facebook because the algorithms favor those who payfor Facebook advertising.The Twitter account, with 454 followers, seemed more successful. PB staff made over 1,484 tweetsduring the project, an average of three tweets per day since the first tweet on January 23, 2015.Influential followers included: multiple MDOT accounts, SEMCOG, Arab American News,Oakland County Road Commission, Detroit People Mover, Michigan Municipal League (MML),County Road Association, ZipCar Detroit, Michigan VanPool, COMTO Michigan, EngineeringSociety of Detroit, MSU Black Alumni, local governments (Port Huron, Mount Clemens, LathrupVillage, Harrison Township), Washtenaw Area Transportation Study, Transportation 4 Michigan,Ann Arbor Transit Authority, Michigan Public Transit Association, Safe Roads Yes, Dan Gilmartin(CEO of MML), Michigan Trails and Greenways Alliance, Michigan Fitness Foundation, and theAnn Arbor Get Downtown Program.The public awareness campaign also included press releases by MDOT and SEMCOG to coincidewith the mailing of invitation letters. MDOT also mailed letters to local governments so that publicofficials would be knowledgeable about the survey, and officials were asked to encourage theirinvited constituents to take part in the survey. MDOT also coordinated with key local governmentgroups, the County Road Association, and the Michigan Municipal League/Michigan TownshipsMI Travel Counts IIIFinal Methodology Report3-6

Association (MTA). Each of these groups shared MTC III information via their expansive contactlist and networks and through online and social media.The “News about the Survey” section of the public site provided links to any media coverage. Thegoal of these efforts was to provide a sense of legitimacy for prospective participants. The public sitealso provided a means for participants or prospective participants to send questions or feedback tothe survey team. A member of the team responded to each comment, and in cases where themessage included a complaint or observation about the transportation system in Michigan, thesewere forwarded to MDOT staff for review and response as appropriate.The website also hosted two MDOT-created videos about the study. One video explained theimportance of participating in the survey and how the results fit into the transportation planningprocess, while the other video explained step-by-step how the survey worked. These videos werealso available on YouTube. Based on the large number of households that were invited to participatein the survey and visited the website, the videos had relatively few views, with less than 1,500 each.The public awareness plan can be found in Appendix B.3.3RecruitmentEach sampled address was sent up to three pieces of mail requesting its participation in the study.The first contact was a letter on letterhead using the logos for MI Travel Counts and MDOT. Theletter provided a brief description of the study, an overview of the requirements for participation,information about the incentive, the URL for the public website, the toll-free study phone number,and a personal identification number (PIN) providing access to the survey. If needed, the secondand third contacts were reminder postcards. These contained a bit less information but still providedthe URL and PIN that allowed access to the survey website. The first reminder postcard was sent 7days after the initial invitation letter and was mailed to all sampled addresses. The second reminderpostcard was sent 7 days after the first and was sent only to non-responding addresses.Sampled households were directed to the secure project website, where they completed therecruitment survey. This component of the survey process was where respondents indicated theirwillingness to participate and provided key demographic and contact data for the household.Although the primary mode of participation at this stage was via web, a telephone recruitmentoption was provided for those participants who requested to complete their enrollment by phone.MI Travel Counts IIIFinal Methodology Report3-7

As part of the sample selection, Westat attempted to match each sampled address to a telephonenumber. This process typically resulted in approximately 40 to 50 percent of the sampled addresseshaving an associated telephone number. These telephone numbers were used to augment thecontact information collected from each household in the recruitment survey (telephone numberand email address), and to attempt to recruit households by telephone.Each responding household was assigned a travel date at the end of the recruitment survey. Beforethe assignment of the travel date, survey participants were offered a choice of whether they wantedto have personalized travel logs (diaries) mailed to them or to print the logs themselves from thewebsite. Households that chose to have the travel logs mailed were assigned a travel date at least 10days in the future so the logs could be prepared and mailed to arrive a few days before the traveldate. Those who opted to print their own materials were assigned the next available travel date.The travel log packets for the log-only households were sent using first class postage in 6 x 9envelopes and included a cover letter, individualized travel logs for all household members, and a 1bill (as a “primer” incentive to further encourage completion of the travel day survey). The letteralso reminded participants about the final 20 household incentive.Appendix C contains recruitment survey instrument for the web, and Appendix D contains therecruitment survey instrument for CATI. The Data Memo (which includes Westat’srecommendations for data elements to be included in the MTC III) is located in Appendix E. Therespondent materials include the advance letter, 7-day postcard, 14-day postcard, travel log, travellog letter, example travel log, and long distance travel log. Recruitment respondent materials are inEnglish, Spanish, and Arabic. These materials can be found in Appendices F through Z.3.4Interviewer Staff and TrainingWestat used two types of interviewing staff to conduct the MTC III household travel survey.Westat’s Rockville, Maryland-based Telephone Research Center (TRC) was responsible for retrievalcontacts only. Another set of interviewers were located at an inbound call center operation. Inboundcall staff received additional training targeted at assisting respondents with miscellaneous issues (e.g.,troubleshooting internet browser problems, tracking GPS shipping) and were responsible forresponding to calls to the toll-free number and emails received through the public website. All callstaff were trained to conduct the surveys, including contact procedures and refusal avoidance. TheMI Travel Counts IIIFinal Methodology Report3-8

interviewer training manual is located in Appendix AA and a template of email responses tofrequently asked questions can be found in Appendix BB.3.5Project Website and SoftwareWestat created a project-specific, public-facing website that was used for promoting the survey andcommunicating with the general population, and that served as an access point to the surveyinstruments. This website included highlights of the project, frequently asked questions, PDFversions of survey materials (e.g., travel logs and GPS instructions), links to “in the news” items andto the MDOT home page, and the toll-free project phone number and an email link to contact thestudy team. Westat coordinated with the MDOT Office of Communications to ensure that thepublic awareness campaign and the project website were linked and in sync with each other.T

O. Spanish Postcard 2 P. Spanish Travel Log Q. Spanish Log Letter R. Spanish Example Travel Log S. Spanish Long Distance Travel Log T. Arabic Advance Letter U. Arabic Postcard Reminder 1 V. Arabic Postcard Reminder 2 W. Arabic Travel Log X. Arabic Log Letter Y. Arabic Example Travel Lo

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