RURAL LIVELIHOODS, FOOD SECURITY AND RURAL TRANSFORMATION .

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BACKGROUND PAPERRURAL LIVELIHOODS, FOOD SECURITYAND RURAL TRANSFORMATION UNDERCLIMATE CHANGEPK Thornton, AM Loboguerrero, BM Campbell, KS Kavikumar, L Mercado and S ShackletonExecutive summaryDespite decades of attention to agricultural development, food security and rural poverty, poverty and food insecurityremain, especially amongst rural dwellers in Asia, Africa and Central America. With climate change the challengesonly increase and will further intensify as extreme events and variable weather patterns make small-scale productioneven more difficult.For any list of recommendations, leverage points or action points, the criticism can easily be that we have heard itall before. There are no silver bullets and some actions and strategies can have mixed outcomes, though nascentand yet-to-be-developed technologies could shift rural livelihoods, agriculture and the broader food systems inunexpected ways in the coming decade, both positively and negatively.Our thesis is that transformational change in rural livelihoods is needed for climate change adaptation, that thischange needs to embrace the broader food system, and that these actions can have benefits in multiple dimensionsbeyond climate change adaptation: poverty, nutrition, employment and the environment. If transformational changeis to be achieved, several elements will be needed in synergy, with less or more emphasis on particular elements,depending on context and considering household heterogeneity. Given that in many places there are at most 12 harvests left to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), urgency in the implementation of the actions underthe following elements is imperative:About this paperThis paper is part of a series of background papers commissioned by the Global Commission on Adaptationto inform its 2019 flagship report. This paper reflects the views of the authors, and not necessarily those of theGlobal Commission on Adaptation.Suggested Citation: Thornton PK, Loboguerrero AM, Campbell BM, Kavikumar KS, Mercado L, Shackleton S. 2019.Rural livelihoods, food security and rural transformation under climate change. Rotterdam and Washington, DC.Available online at www.gca.org.

2Firstly, and fundamentally, the policy and institutionalenvironment needs to change, to provide appropriateincentives for transformational change. Policies thatcan generate or enhance risks should be avoided. Keyobjectives in the policy domain include promotinglandscape planning and management, rethinkingsubsidies, making markets work, reducing risks inagriculture, improved water supply in the less humidzones, improved soil and water conservation, enhancedgood governance in all sectors, tenure reform, andtargeting the poorest of the poor with productive socialsafety nets and alternative options. In many casespolicy action is required outside the agricultural sectorand a much stronger focus on more localized enablingenvironments will be needed, such as rethinking ofcurrent financial incentive mechanisms for statebudget allocation that discourage local authoritiesfrom implementing sustainable policies, policieson migration, policies that enhance environmentalstandards and law enforcement and promotion ofparticipatory and gender-sensitive decision-making andfree trade policies.Secondly, appropriate climate-resilient practicesand technologies need to be identified and furtherdeveloped, and perhaps more importantly, scaledup. Technologies are highly context specific, butconsidering small-scale producers, some key areas foraction are around solar micro-irrigation, technologiesfor high value commodities that link to changing urbanmarkets (e.g., climate-smart dairy production, smallscale aquaculture, horticulture), nature-based solutionssuch as ecosystem-based adaptation, diversifiedsystems that help manage climate risk, likely earlywinners in new technology such as alternative proteinsources for humans and livestock, and food storageinnovations. Stress tolerance in crops and livestockwill be important, in particular for closing yield gapsin some of the world’s poorest and most climatevulnerable regions, with more attention required forsome of the lesser researched and lesser incentivizedcrops (e.g., in the African context: beans, cassava, millet,plantain/banana, potato and sorghum) and to pestsand diseases. Greater focus on rural mechanizationand post-harvest storage and processing relevantto small-scale producers can also be a boost torural entrepreneurship. These technologies need toAugust 2019be identified based on local needs and need to betransferred to local people. Thirdly, orders of magnitude more investments arerequired, however, these are largely expected to befrom the private sector (e.g., role of large nationaland multinational corporations in adaptation not onlythrough their potential to finance projects but alsoto develop technologies and innovative solutions)and driven by appropriate government policies, withinvestments coming from multiple sources used toleverage private investments, e.g., through de-riskingagriculture. Innovation in financial models and in theuse of climate finance is sorely needed. Index-basedinsurance is advancing rapidly and is likely to be animportant risk mitigation option. Fourthly, given that different agricultural value-chainsand market configurations can provide big opportunitiesfor rural producers, considerable attention needs tobe focused on reshaping supply chains, food retail,marketing and procurement. This must address foodloss and waste issues, shifts in consumption towardshealthier diets, building the resilience of supply chains,and, most importantly, ensuring that supply chainslink to small-scale producers and enhance ruralemployment opportunities. Fifthly, we must realize the digital era for rurallivelihoods, agriculture and food systems. Agricultureis behind other sectors in digitalization, and digitalagriculture has the potential to revolutionize agricultureand supply chains. For example, two-way digitalextension services integrated with weather advisoriescan change information flows to and from small-scaleproducers, and change how farmers respond to climaterisk. Digitalization can also enhance local networkingand increase rural employment opportunities. Sixthly, and to address the issue that a strong privatesector approach is being advocated, considerableattention needs to be given to empowering producerand consumer organizations, women, youth andmarginalized groups such as indigenous communitiesto promote local action, strengthen negotiating powerand increase access to resources. Local networking hasbeen shown to have important positive consequencesfor climate adaptation. Capacity development must runthrough all the elements.

Taken together, implementing these elements for actionsimultaneously would constitute a new approach toinnovation and enabling it: co-creating new knowledge,“renovating” existing but as-yet under-utilized scientific andindigenous knowledge, and sharing knowledge between allstakeholders and levels in the food system, producers andconsumers alike.Fostering transformation in rural livelihoods, agriculture andfood systems will mean very different things for differentsub-sectors of the rural population, where we recognizeat least four livelihood types: “stepping up” (investing inagricultural assets, and purchasing at least some inputsor services); “stepping out” (accumulating assets thatallow investments in or switches to new activities outsideagriculture); “hanging in” (maintaining and protectingcurrent levels of wealth and welfare in the face of threats ofstresses and shocks; focused on subsistence or low-inputagriculture), and “food insecure” (chronically food-insecure,some landless or reliant on casual agricultural or nonagricultural labour). Market approaches are likely to benefitthose stepping up or stepping out, while for others—oftenthe majority in many communities—food insecurity canincrease, and the population of those hanging in couldincrease.Thus, we have to recognize differentiated pathways toadaptation—tailored to different sectors of the populationoften with multiple pathways in the same geography. Wediscuss five main pathways:1. Increasing market integration and/or consolidating landso as to step up2. Climate-informed shifts in the farming system so as tostep up3. From landless to small-scale entrepreneurship(including highly intensive production on microlandholdings)4. Climate-informed productive social safety nets andnature-based solutions for those least integrated intomarkets5. Exiting/reducing agriculture in the livelihood portfolioSome key interventions are shown in Table 1.Rural livelihoods, food security and rural transformation under climate change3

TABLE 1Pathways and interventions neededPathwayInterventions for each pathway and the elements addressed#1. Increasing marketintegration and/orconsolidating land so asto step up Increase access to credit, technology, and infrastructure Develop new technologies that deal with multiple and interacting stresses Strong policy support and investments to incentivize new farming systems andinnovative methods of production, such as urban farming and floating agriculture Provide training, microcredit, and appropriate bundles of choices of technologies Strong policy support for social safety nets, for schemes for payments forenvironmental services and for ecosystems conservation Implement cash transfer income tools Development of business cases for conservation Develop policy measures to support future livelihoods of migrants Use of media for education and establishment of technology information centres toidentify promising off-farm opportunities Enhance opportunities around digital agriculture#2. Climate-informed shiftsin the farming system so asto step up#3. From landless to smallscale entrepreneurship#4. Climate-informedproductive social safety netsand nature-based solutionsfor those least integratedinto markets#5. Exiting/reducingagriculture in the livelihoodportfolio4August 2019Promote risk reducing optionsImplement tenure reforms, enhance land rental marketsStrengthen farming organizations, cooperatives and similar forms of collective actionFarmers to organize, network and improve access to information to negotiate withindustry and have their voices heard in decision-making processesProvide training and information about new optionsStrong policy support and investments to shift farming systemsAccess to credit, technology, and infrastructurePromote risk reducing optionsCapacity building for implementing ecosystem and community-based adaptationapproachesStrengthen farming organizations, cooperatives and similar forms of collective actionFarmers’ to organize, network and improve access to information to negotiate withindustry and have their voices heard in decision-making processesImplement policies to develop secondary and tertiary industries in rural areasDevelop policies and investments in education and specific skills for non-farmactivities

1. Introduction: rural livelihoodsin transition?In 2017, 3.4 billion people lived in rural areas, most in low(15%) and middle income (79%) countriesi, many derivingtheir income from small-scale agriculture, including fishingand livestock raising. Globally, there are about 570 millionfarms, most of which (circa 500 million) are less than 2 ha,accounting for about 12% of the world’s agricultural land.1Small and medium farms ( 50 ha) produce 51–77% ofnearly all nutrients.2 Poverty rates are higher in rural thanurban areas (e.g., in 2013, 18.2% of rural residents andonly 5.5% for urban residents were in extreme poverty, andfood insecurity is also slightly higher for rural than urbanresidents.3,4This paper is focused on the rural poor with an emphasison the developing world, many connected to the land,agriculture and ecosystem services; and vulnerable toa range of risks including climate change. The mainobjective of the paper is to advocate for actions andresearch-for-development that builds resilient and foodand nutritionally-secure rural livelihoods; and fostersdifferentiated and context-appropriate rural adaptationpathways.Rural conditions vary markedly across continents (Figure1), and even within countries and districts. Most smalland very small farms are in Asia, with sub-Saharan Africa(SSA) having a mix of small to large farms, and LatinAmerica dominated by large and very large farms, but withsmaller farms in Central America and the Andes.5 Povertyis concentrated in SSA and South Asia, but high levels alsofound in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) regionswith smaller farms.6 Africa has the highest prevalence ofundernutrition – 21% of the population (256 million people),with Asia at 11% (515 million) and LAC at 5%.7 Even thoughSouth America has lower numbers of undernourished thenumber did increase from 20.7 to 21.4 million between2016 and 2017.8In Asia, rural areas were transformed through the GreenRevolution through a process driven by state policies andR&D investments, mediated by markets and embracingsmall-scale producers.9 This was matched by urbanizationand emerging industries that allowed farmers to enter nonifarm employment.10 Initially most rural households weresubsistence producers, but with better functioning marketsand improved transport and communications in rural areas,households produced for the market as well as diversifyinginto non-farm activities to increase incomes. The GreenRevolution contributed to widespread poverty reductionand averted hunger for millions of people but left somepeople behind, particularly those in marginal rainfed areas,and had several negative, unanticipated gender-related andenvironmental outcomes.11 Other changes occurred andare continuing, such as the major increase in aquaculture.By contrast, rural transformation in LAC – where landdistribution is bimodal (heavy concentrations of both smalland large landholdings) – has been driv

Despite decades of attention to agricultural development, food security and rural poverty, poverty and food insecurity remain, especially amongst rural dwellers in Asia, Africa and Central America. With climate change the challenges only increase and will further intensify as extreme events and variable weather patterns make small-scale production

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