Climate Change & Critical Thinking
Climate Change &Critical ThinkingLesley L. Smith, Ph.D.University of Colorado, BoulderCooperative Institute for Research in Environm ental Sciences& NOAA Earth System Research LaboratoryPhysical Science DivisionAttribution and Predictability Assessments TeamFeel free to ask questions whenever
Topics Definitions: Climate Change and Critical Thinking Overview of Critical Thinking Overview of Weather & Climate Overview of Climate Change How do Climate Change and Critical Thinking relate to each other? Audience take-aways27/11/18Outline
DefinitionsClimate ChangeCritical Thinking Climate the weather conditions inan area averaged over some timeframe Critical involving an analysis of themerits and faults of a work Climate Change a change in globalor regional climate patterns Critical thinking objective analysisand evaluation of an issue to form ajudgmente.g. movie ‘critic’Let’s consider critical thinking first 37/11/18Definitions
Critical Thinking OverviewFacts exist!Reality is real!How does one analyze/evaluate something to form a judgement?One possibility: The Scientific MethodAsk a question, do background research, construct hypothesis,test with experiment, analyze data and draw conclusions. Doresults support hypothesis? Communicate results.47/11/18Critical Thinking overview
The most important element in critical thinking:Consider the source of information! Background kers57/11/18Critical Thinking Overviewyour BFFyour parentyour significant otherfriendsfamilypoliticiansnewspapersnetwork newscable newsFacebook/Twitter
Considering the source: What is their motivation? Why are they interacting with you? Toeducate you? To help you? To get your vote? To make money? What is their history? Have they been truthful, helpful in thepast? Are their words and actions consistent with each other?Consistent with what they’ve said and done in past? Consistentwith those of other people? What are their expertise, knowledge, skills, education? Have their statements/comments/communications undergoneany kind of quality control?67/11/18Critical Thinking Overview
Challenges/Impediments to Critical Thinking Emotion --everyone has emotions, need to take them into considerationo Recent experimental studies show that emotions can have a significant effect on theway we think, decide, and solve problems.o Results showed a clear effect of emotions on reasoning performance.o Participants in negative mood performed worse than participants in positive mood,but both groups were outperformed by the neutral mood reasoners.77/11/18Critical Thinking Overview
Challenges/Impediments to Critical ThinkingWhat is your Worldview? Protecting Worldview/Confirmation bias –tendency to search for, interpret, favor and recall(sometimes ambiguous) information in a way thatconfirms one’s pre-exisiting beliefs or hypothesesBe careful ofImposter Syndrome Explicit bias – attitudes & beliefs about yourself, a person or group on aconscious level. Should be controllable.For both of these, knowing about them helps you deal with them.Knowledge is power lities.com87/11/18Critical Thinking
Challenges/Impediments to Critical Thinking Implicit bias – attitudes & beliefs we have about persons or groups ona subconscious leveloooooPervasive: Everyone has implicit biasImplicit biases can be difficult to identifyImplicit bias may not align with our declared beliefsOur implicit biases tend to favor our own ingroupImplicit biases predict our ent.orgCritical Thinking – Implicit Bias
Which hurricane is more dangerous?107/11/18Implicit Bias
Implicit Bias continuedProject Implicit:https://implicit.harvard.edu/implicit/We all have implicit biasIdentifying it in ourselves and others facilitates critical thinkingNow on to climate!117/11/18Implicit Bias
The ultimate source of climate is The SunThe Sun is a yellow main-sequence starWith potentially 10 billion years of hydrogen fusion(Sun believed to be 4.6 billion years old)Earth bombarded by energy from Sun.Fact.Nuclear Fusion1H hydrogen nucleus proton3He helium ion p p n127/11/18Climate: Sun2H deuterium nucleus proton neutron4He helium nucleus p p n n
The sun warms the Earth—making life possible Greenhouse Effect – radiation in atmosphere warms the surface Greenhouse gas molecules made of 3 or more atomsTheir physical makeup means it’s easier to absorb energyVibrate when absorb energyEventually release energy –can be absorbed by anothergreenhouse gas molecule Greenhouse Effect is good Without it, Earth’s global anntemp 0 o (rather than 57 o F) Makes Earth habitableThe Greenhouse Effect is a fact.137/11/18Climate : Greenhouse Effect
Why do we have Weather?Uneven heating of the Earth by the Sun.shape of Earthday/nightseasons (23.5 o axis tilt)annual orbit around sunland heats up (and cools off) faster than waterHeat/Energy wants to even out.147/11/18Weather/Climate Overview
What is Weather?Weather the state of the atmosphere at a particular place and time asregards heat, dryness, sunshine, wind, rain, snow, humidity, etc.Main weather elements: Wind force Wind direction Precipitation Temperature Sunshine Visibility CloudsHow do we predict weather? Weather Forecasts157/11/18Weather/Climate Overview
Weather ForecastingNumerical weather prediction uses mathematical computer models of theatmosphere and oceans to predict near-future weather based on current weatherconditions Systems of differential equationsBased on laws of physics, fluid motion, chemistryCoordinate system divides planet into 3-d gridWinds, heat transfer, solar radiation, relativehumidity, surface hydrology calc in each grid cell Interactions with neighboring cells are used to calcatmospheric properties in near future167/11/18Weather Forecasting
Weather is what you get;climate is what you expect.Climate is average weatherSpecify region and time period 177/11/18Weather/Climate Change
Climate ExampleClimate is average weather—time period, region must be specified.187/11/18State of the Climate
Climate Change? Data shows weather changes. Fact. Consequently Data shows climate changes. Fact.How does climate change?Why does climate change?What will happen in the future?A group that has studied this extensively looks at all the data out there197/11/18Climate Change
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)http://www.ipcc.ch IPCC: international body for assessing science related to climate change Set up in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) & United NationsEnvironment Programme (UNEP) Provide policy makers with regular assessments ofo Scientific basis of climate changeo Impacts of climate changeReliable?o Future risks of climate changeo Options for adaptation to climate changeo Mitigation of climate change 195 member countries Assessments written by hundreds of leading scientist from around the world Assessments reviewed by thousands of experts (this is quality control)207/11/18What’s the IPCC?
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)2014 Synthesis ReportSummary for Policymakers217/11/18State of the Climate: 5th IPCC AssessmentAnthropogenic originating inhuman activity
Temperature ChangeSea Level Change227/11/18State of the Climate: AR5
Greenhouse GasChangesAnthropogenicEmission Changes237/11/18State of the Climate: AR5
247/11/18State of the Climate: AR5
Climate change thus far is a fact. Human impacts are a fact.257/11/18State of the Climate: AR5
What can we do about climate change?To register: your town county clerk Vote! Encourage your elected officials to do what you want Reduce travel-related carbon emissions: Walk, bike, carpool, take publictransportation rather than driving a single-occupant car Save energy at home and work: use energy-saving light bulbs, turn out lights whenleave room, take shorter showers, turn up air conditioning, turn down heat, unplugelectronics when not in use Be a smart shopper: buy energy-efficient devices, consume less by buying less, usereusable bags, go vegetarian (?) each meat-eating American produces 1.5 tons moregreenhouse gases? Deforestation for herds? How far has your food travelled? Consider renewable energies such as solar power at home/work/school Recycle and compost at home, work, school, in your neighborhood and town Go green: grow your own food, plant trees267/11/18Solutions to climate change
The Future 277/11/18State of the Climate: AR5
The Future 287/11/18State of the Climate: AR5
The Future 297/11/18State of the Climate: AR5
The Future ProjectionsProjections are not fact.307/11/18State of the Climate: AR5
How do scientists estimate/predict future climate?Climate Models Systems of differential equationsBased on laws of physics, fluid motion, chemistryCoordinate system divides planet into 3-d gridWinds, heat transfer, solar radiation, relative humidity,surface hydrology calc in each grid cellInteractions with neighboring cells are used to calcatmospheric properties in near and far future 2 main types: Global Atmospheric Models Earth System Models GlobalAtmospheric Model coupled withOcean Model, Land Model, Land-IceModel, and/or Sea-Ice Model317/11/18Predicting future climate
Climate Model Experiments: EnsemblesRun slightly different versions of the model multiple times Different initial conditions (e.g. random temperature perturbations 0.1 o ) Different physics parametersand/or Different forcings (e.g. RCP2.6 or RCP8.5)depending on what experiment is testingResults: slightly different Earths327/11/18Climate Models
Attribution, Predictability & Assessment (APA)Understand the physical factors that cause: Observed regional climate trends Observed seasonal climate trends High-impact/extreme weather events High-impact/extreme climate eventsWhat are the large-scale drivers that influence extreme events?Provide knowledge for climate risk management & adaptationUse a variety of climate models includingNCAR’s Community Earth System Model (CESM1) Large Ensemble (LENS) 40-member ensemble Years 1920-2100 fully-coupled CESM1 RCP8.5 after 2005 Publicly available ts/LENS/337/11/8Climate Models/APA
Example APA extreme event Project:Diagnosing Human-Induced Dynamic and Thermodynamic Drivers of Extreme RainfallL. Cheng, M. Hoerling, L. Smith, J. Eischeid, Journal of Climate, Feb 2018Abstract: Factors responsible for extreme monthly rainfall over Texas and Oklahoma during May 2015 are assessed Step 1: Observations: TX/OK precipNOAA U.S. Climate Division Data[mm]Model dataAveraged composites CESM1 LENS precip2050-80 Mays minus 1920-50 Mays.àSimulated changes in mean climate6% more TX/OK rainfall[%]Statistical analysesModel data: CESM1 LENSe.g. Probability Density FunctionMay El Nino TX/OK precip347/11/18Studying an extreme eventConclusions: El Nino alone was found to be a critical condition for suchan extreme event to occur in 2015 TX/OK. the observed TX/OK May 2015 event was not made more intense orbecome more likely as a result of human-induced climate change overthe past century
Example APA extreme event Project:Work in progress Drought in the U.S. Great Plains MJJ 2017Step 1: ObservationsObservational Data: Drought due to low precipitationNOAA National Centers of Environmental Info (NCEI) dataWhy was there low precip?Climate Change? ENSO? Natural Variability?Model Data: CESM1 LENSPreliminary figures:è Low precipprobably not dueto climate changeStay tuned for more results 357/11/18Studying an extreme event
How do Climate Change and Critical Thinking relate to each other?Climate Change Controversy! For example:Hoax?Some people don’t believe climate is changing and/orthat humans are responsibleAre these people using their critical thinking skills?367/11/18Climate Change & Critical Thinking?
Opinions of theGeneral public377/11/18Climate Change & Critical Thinking
Opinions ofScientists387/11/18Climate Change & Critical Thinking
397/11/18Climate Change & Critical Thinking
Scientists believe Do you believe? If so, why? If not, why?explicit bias, implicit bias What do you (critically) think of all this belief? Recall :The Scientific MethodAsk a question, do background research, construct hypothesis, test with experiment, analyzedata and draw conclusions. Do results support hypothesis? Communicate results. Technically, belief is not part of science What responsibilities do informed, educated people have regarding climate change?Engage/discuss/interact 407/11/18Climate Change & Critical Thinking
Forget the tirades, quell the yelling Not so divided as you might think Frame solutions to show immediate tangible economic benefits Engage as a fallible inquisitive human not an all-knowing scientist Acknowledge valid questions; give answers in plain English417/11/18Convincing people
Audience Take-Aways It is very important to develop and utilize critical thinking skillsLearn about & be aware of your explicit and implicit biasesEarth’s weather and climate are due to the SunClimate is changingThus far, humans have had an effect on climateThe future is less certain Consider helping your friends/relatives develop their criticalthinking skills and learn more about climate427/11/18Audience Take-Aways
Thanks for ps://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/lesley.l.smith/
o Scientific basis of climate change o Impacts of climate change o Future risks of climate change o Options for adaptation to climate change o Mitigation of climate change 195 member countries Assessments written by hundredsof leading scientist from around the world Assessments reviewed by thousandsof experts (this is quality control)
Critical Thinking Skills vs. Critical Thinking Disposition Critical Thinking Skills are the cognitive processes that are involved in critical thinking Critical Thinking Disposition is the attitudes, habits of mind or internal motivations that help us use critical thinking skills.
2.2 Application of Critical Thinking in Nursing Practice 2.3 Traits of the Critical Thinker 2.4 Pitfalls in Critical Thinking 2.5 Critical Thinking Models 2.6 Critical Thinking Skills 2.6.1 Six Core Thinking Skills 2.6.2 Critical Thinking Skills in Nursing 2.6.3 Elements of Thoughts and the N
The Role of Critical Thinking in Problem Analysis Brian D. Egan, M.Sc., MBA, PMP Introduction Contrary to what the name implies, critical thinking is not thinking that is critical of others. It is “fundamental” or “vital” thinking. Critical thinking is thinking that drills down to the essence of a problem. It is introspective
USG Critical Thinking Conference -Athens, GA* International Conference on Critical Thinking - Berkeley, CA* i2a Institute Critical Thinking Conference -Louisville, KY Spring Academy on Critical Thinking by The Foundation for Critical Thinking -Houston, TX Please coordinate with other conference attendees to
Critical thinking is more holistic as it seeks to assess, question, verify, infer, interpret, and formulate. Analytical thinking can be considered a step in the critical thinking process. When you have a complex problem to solve, you would want to use your analytical skills before your critical thinking skills. Critical thinking does involve .
critical thinking instruction, a significant percentage (35) said it primarily benefited high-ability students. At Reboot, we believe that all students are capable of critical thinking and will benefit from critical thinking instruction. Critical thinking is, after all, just a refinement of everyday thinking, decision-making, and problem-solving.
Food Security and Nutrition 1.1.Climate Change and Agriculture Climate change shows in different transformations of climate variables that are causing significant economic, social and environmental effects. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in 2002, has defined climate change as “any change in climate over time,
Just In Time Training 2011 Animal Behavior and Restraint: Companion Animals To approach a dog that is not showing signs of aggression, first get the animal’s attention. Call the animal and encourage it to come to you. If the pet doesn’t come, approach the dog slowly with a non-threatening stance – either by standing sideways or by crouching down. Never surprise the animal by approaching .
