BP Energy Outlook 2030
BP Energy Outlook 2030Washington, DC 26 April 2011
OutlineGlobal trendsUS particularsWhat can bend the trend?Energy Outlook 20302 BP 2011
Non-OECD economies drive consumption growthBillion toeBillion 90 20002010 2020 2030* Includes biofuelsEnergy Outlook 20303 BP 2011
Gas and renewables win as fuel shares convergeShares of world primary energy50%Contributions to Energy Outlook 2030Renewables*20102030Oil0.0%1970- 1990- 20101990 2010 20304* Includes biofuels BP 2011
Industry and power generation dominate energy growthGrowth of world energy consumption 2010-30by sector and fuelby sector and regionBillion toeBillion toe3.03.02.5Other2.5Non-OECD2.0Middle1.5EastChina &India0.5OECDOtherIndustry-0.5Transport0.0Final energy useEnergy Outlook cityIndustry1.5Renew.Transport2.0HydroNuclearFinal energy useInputs to power5Inputs to power BP 2011
Liquids balance – demand and supplyMb/dDemandSupply105Other1002030 levelOtherS&C AmIraqMid East959085Oil 010Energy Outlook ECGrowthGrowth Declines BP 2011
Policies to constrain carbon emissions gradually tightenGlobal CO2 emissions from energy useby regionby fuelBillion tonnes CO240Billion tonnes CO240vs GDP and energyIndex (1990 150Energy10OECD019902010Energy Outlook 203002030 19902010710019902030CO 220102030 BP 2011
US consumption flat, natural gas & renewables gain shareShares of primary energyPrimary energy consumptionBillion Renewables*0.5Oil0.01990201020301990 2000 2010 2020 2030* Includes biofuelsEnergy Outlook 20308 BP 2011
US power generation grows while transport declinesChange in US energy consumption 2010-30by sector and fuelMillion nal energy useEnergy Outlook 2030Inputs to power9 BP 2011
US transport demand contracts despite biofuels growthPassenger car fuel economyEnergy in gallon*70USChina60JapanOECD 2030* New sales averageEnergy Outlook 203010 BP 2011
Unconventional gas will play a growing roleSources of gas supply, by regionNorth t imports:PipelineLNG6060604040402020200001990 2010 2030Energy Outlook 20301990 2010 203011DomesticColumn 4production:Syngas fromcoalShale gas andCBMConventional(inc tight gas)1990 2010 2030 BP 2011
Alternative case: Stronger policy action on climate changeCO2 emissions from energy useSources of carbon abatementversus Base Case, 2030Billion tonnes CO24020302020Base CaseIraq5.4 billion tonnesreduction35PolicyCaseFuelswitchingIEA “450 Scenario” *Energyefficiency3025202000CCS201020202030* a back-cast which illustrates what is required to stabilise greenhousegas concentrations at 450 ppm from IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010Energy Outlook 203012 BP 2011
US: Impact of climate policy casePrimary energy consumptionDifferences from Base Case, 2030Billion toeMtoe2.5100Base Case2.3PrimaryEnergy 6%50 31% 6%ClimatePolicy Case2.1 90Gas0-50Oil-2002000Energy Outlook 203020102020Renewablesin power203013 BP 2011
Implications for energy securityChinaUSOECD EuropeMtoe100%1500Oil & gasconsumption125075%100075050%Oil & gasproduction50025%2500199019902010– 20302030199019902010– 2030Net imports as % of consumption (rhs):Energy Outlook 20301420301990Oil19902010– 20300%2030Gas BP 2011
ConclusionEnergy consumption driven by non-OECD; US flatFuel mix – diversifyingCarbon emissions – too high globally; falling in the USRegional and policy trends – mixed; positive for US importdependenceEnergy Outlook 203015 BP 2011
tisticalreviewEnergy Outlook 203016 BP 2011
BP Energy Outlook 2030Washington, DC 26 April 2011
Energy Outlook 2030 11 BP 2011 Unconventional gas will play a growing role Bcf/d China Bcf/d North America Bcf/d Europe Sources of gas supply, by region 0 20 40 60 80 100 1990 2010 2030 0 20 40 60 80 100 1990 2010 2030 Pipeline LNG Column 4 Syngas from coal Shale gas and CBM Conventional 0 (inc tight gas) 20 40 60 80 100 1990 2010 2030 Net .
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Welcome to the 2013 edition of BP’s Energy Outlook 2030. BP’s annual Energy Outlook contains our projections of future energy trends and factors that could affect them, based on our views of likely economic and population growth and developments in policy and technology. Together with the annual Statistical Review of
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