Climate Change: Implications For Agriculture
Climate Change:Implications forAgricultureKey Findings from theIntergovernmental Panelon Climate ChangeFifth Assessment Report
ThePhysicalScienceofClimateChangeRising temperatures:The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) concludes that climate change isunequivocal, and that human activities, particularly emissionsof carbon dioxide, are very likely to be the dominant cause.Changes are observed in all geographical regions: the atmosphereand oceans are warming, the extent and volume of snow andice are diminishing, sea levels are rising and weather patternsare changing.Projections:Computer models of the climate used by the IPCCindicate that changes will continue under a range of possiblegreenhouse gas emission scenarios over the 21st century. Ifemissions continue to rise at the current rate, impacts by theend of this century are projected to include a global averagetemperature 2.6–4.8 degrees Celsius ( C) higher than present,and sea levels 0.45–0.82 metres higher than present.To prevent the most severe impacts of climate change, partiesto the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)agreed a target of keeping the rise in average global temperaturesince pre-industrial times below 2 C, and to consider loweringthe target to 1.5 C in the near future.The first instalment of AR5 in 2013 (Working Group I onthe physical science basis of climate change) concludedthat by 2011, we had already emitted about two-thirdsof the maximum cumulative amount of carbon dioxidethat we can emit if we are to have a better than two-thirdschance of meeting the 2 C target.Impact of past emissions:Even if emissions are stopped immediately, temperatures willremain elevated for centuries due to the effect of greenhouse gasesfrom past human emissions already present in the atmosphere.Limiting temperature rise will require substantial and sustainedreductions of greenhouse gas emissions.P2 Climate: Everyone's Business
Aboutthis documentThe Fifth Assessment Report from theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is themost comprehensive and relevant analysis of ourchanging climate. It provides the scientific fact basethat will be used around the world to formulateclimate policies in the coming years.PUBLISHED:June 2014FOR MORE INFORMATION:E-mail: bsr.orgwww.europeanclimate.orgAUTHOR:Edward CameronThis document is one of a series synthesizing the most pertinent findingsof AR5 for specific economic and business sectors. It was born of the beliefthat the agriculture sector could make more use of AR5, which is long andhighly technical, if it were distilled into an accurate, accessible, timely,relevant and readable summary.Although the information presented here is a ‘translation’ of the keycontent relevant to this sector from AR5, this summary report adheres tothe rigorous scientific basis of the original source material.Grateful thanks are extended to all reviewers from both the science andbusiness communities for their time, effort and invaluable feedback onthis document.The basis for information presented in this overview report can be foundin the fully-referenced and peer-reviewed IPCC technical and scientificbackground reports at: www.ipcc.chREVIEWERS:Laura Ediger, Tara NortonCambridge Project Team:Nicolette BartlettStacy GilfillanDavid ReinerEliot WhittingtonPROJECT DIRECTOR:Tim NuthallPROJECT MANAGER/EDITOR:Joanna BennEDITORIAL CONSULTANTS:Carolyn Symon, Richard BlackPROJECT ASSISTANTS:Myriam Castanié,Simon McKeagneyLAYOUT DESIGN:Lucie Basset, BurnthebookINFOGRAPHIC:Carl De Torres Graphic DesignIMPLICATIONS FOR AGRICULTURE P3
KeyFindingsClimate-related impacts are already reducing crop yieldsin some parts of the world, a trend that is projected tocontinue as temperatures rise further. Crops affected includestaples such as wheat, maize and rice. Climate changeis projected to increase price volatility for agriculturalcommodities, and reduce food quality.Farmers can adapt to some changes, but there is a limit towhat can be managed. Adaptive capacity is projected to beexceeded in regions closest to the equator if temperaturesincrease by 3 C or more. The agricultural industry’s owninterests are best served by ambitious approaches toadaptation and to cutting emissions.Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculturecomprised about 10–12% of man-made GHG emissionsin 2010. The sector is the largest contributor of non-carbondioxide (non-CO2) GHGs such as methane.Opportunities for mitigation include reducing emissionsfrom land use change, land management and livestockmanagement. Carbon can be captured and stored in soiland biomass. Economy-wide emissions from energy usecan be reduced, under certain conditions, by replacing fossilfuels with biofuels.The potential for reducing GHG emissions from agriculturethrough changes in consumption could be substantiallyhigher than technical mitigation options. Approachesinclude reducing food waste, changing diets towards lessGHG-intensive food (e.g. substitution of animal products withplant-based food), and reducing overconsumption in regionswhere this is prevalent.P4 Climate: Everyone's Business
ExecutiveSummaryThe effects of climate changeon crop and food productionare already evident in severalregions of the world, withnegative impacts more commonthan positive ones. Withoutadaptation, climate change isprojected to reduce productionfor local temperature increasesof 2 C or more (above late20th-century levels) up to 2050,although individual locationsmay benefit. After 2050, the riskof more severe yield impactsincreases and depends onthe level of warming. Climatechange will be particularly hardon agricultural productionin Africa and Asia. Globaltemperature increases of 4 C ormore, combined with increasingfood demand, would pose largerisks to food security globallyand regionally.This summary looks at climaterisk, resilience and GHG mitigationpotential relevant for the agriculturalsector and not for the broaderAFOLU (Agriculture, Forestry andOther Land Use) landscape.Greenhouse gas emissionsfrom agriculture comprisedabout 10–12% of global GHGemissions in 2010. The sectoris the largest contributor ofnon-CO2 GHGs (includingmethane), accounting for 56%of non-CO2 emissions in 2005.Opportunities for mitigationinclude so-called ‘supply’ and‘demand’ side options.On the supply side, emissionsfrom land use change, landmanagement and livestockmanagement can be reduced,and terrestrial carbon stocks canbe increased by sequestrationin soils and biomass. Emissionsfrom energy use across theentire economy can be reducedthrough the substitutionof fossil fuels by biomassproviding certain conditionsare met. On the demand side,GHG emissions could be cutby reducing losses and wasteof food, and by encouragingchanges in diet.The agricultural industry’sown interests are best servedby implementing ambitiousapproaches to mitigation toensure that key temperaturethresholds are not crossed,while also working to enhanceresilience in the face ofinevitable temperature rises andassociated climate events. Whileadaptation to climate impactsis possible, largely by extendingtechniques already in existence,there is a limit to what can bemanaged. Adaptive capacityis projected to be exceeded iftemperature increases by 3 C ormore, especially in regions closeto the equator.IMPLICATIONS FOR AGRICULTURE P5
Impacts ofClimate ChangeMajor impacts areprojected on wateravailability andsupply, food security,and agriculturalincomes, includingshifts in productionareas of food andnon-food crops.Food securityRecent extreme climatic events, such as heatwaves, droughts, floods, and wildfires, arecombining with long-term trends includingrising temperatures and changes inprecipitation patterns, with broad and deepimplications for the agricultural sector andglobal food security. Terrestrial ecosystemsthat provide a variety of services vital foragricultural production, including nutrientcycling, waste decomposition and seeddispersal, will be undermined and even lostthrough climate change. After habitat loss,climate change is the most important threatto pollinating insects on a global basis.Crop yieldsGreenhouse gas emissions over manydecades are already affecting production ofrice, wheat and maize. Without adaptation,local temperature increases of 2 C areexpected to reduce yields further. WhileCO2 in most cases has a stimulating effecton plant growth, ozone reduces growth.Elevated ozone levels have very likelysuppressed global production of crops,causing estimated losses of 10% for wheatand soybean. These are some aspects ofa complex picture involving interactionsbetween CO2, ozone, mean temperaturerise, temperature extremes, reduced wateravailability and changes to the nitrogencycle, whose overall effect is difficult topredict. In addition, areas suitable forcultivation of coffee, tea and cocoa, whichsupport millions of smallholders in overP6 Climate: Everyone's Business60 countries, are likely to be significantlyreduced by temperature rise and otherfactors. These projected impacts will occur asdemand for crops is expected to increase byabout 14% per decade until 2050. Risks aregreatest in tropical countries.Developing countriesClimate-related risks for agriculture areparticularly acute in developing countries.They expose vulnerabilities of farmers andpastoralists who lack resources fundamentalto resilience including finance, technologyand knowledge. Moreover, climate-relatedrisks interact with existing environmentalstressors such as biodiversity loss, soilerosion, and water contamination, andwith social stressors such as inequality,poverty, gender discrimination, and lack ofinstitutional capacity. These interactionscompound risks to agricultural productionand food security.Water securityIn many regions, changing levels andpatterns of precipitation, melting snowand ice, and retreating glaciers are alteringhydrological systems, affecting waterresources and quality. Climate change isprojected to reduce renewable surface waterand groundwater resources significantly inmost dry subtropical regions. Each degree ofwarming is expected to decrease renewablewater resources by at least 20% for anadditional 7% of the global population.
Climate impacts are expectedto affect the rural poordisproportionately.Price volatilityA major factor in recent food price rises hasbeen increased crop demand, notably drivenby increased take-up of land for biofuelproduction. Yet weather-related fluctuationsin food production are also believed tohave played a role, with recent price spikesoften following climate extremes in majorproducing nations. Price rises of 37% (rice),55% (maize), and 11% (wheat) are projectedby 2050 from the additional stress of climateimpacts. Increased volatility has negativeimplications for business as it heightensuncertainty, potentially increases thecosts of production, and impedes accessto vital commodities. From a developmentstandpoint, climate-related price rises havea disproportionate impact on the welfare ofthe poor. The 2010/2011 food price spike isestimated to have pushed 44 million peoplebelow the basic-needs poverty line across28 countries.of pests and diseases, while increasing theranges of various pests. This in turn can leadto losses of important ecosystem servicesand facilitate the increased dominance ofdamaging invasive organisms. Expectedincreases in crop damage by pests areprojected to affect food production furtherand raise the cost of key commodities.LivestockIncreased heat stresscoupled with morefrequent extremeweather events will havenegative consequencesfor livestock. Varieties bred for high yieldsare particularly at risk. Breeds in developingcountries tend to be more tolerant to heatand poor seasonal nutrition. Pathogensdangerous to livestock are expected toexpand their geographical range as a resultof climate change.Food qualityLabourThe quality of some foods is likely to beaffected. Growing wheat, rice, barley orpotato in high CO2 concentrations reducesthe protein content by 10–14%. Somecrops may also show reduced mineral andmicronutrient concentrations.Falls in labour productivity are likely in theagricultural sector, particularly for manuallabour in humid climates, as a result of heatstress and vector-borne diseases.Pests and diseaseFood production is but one part of theagricultural supply chain. The sectoralso depends on refrigeration, transport,processing and retailing. Each of these linksin the chain is exposed to climate risks, suchas disruption of operations and the need formore extensive temperature control.Some pest outbreaks are attributed toclimate change. Rising land temperatures,changes in precipitation patterns, andincreased frequency and intensity ofextreme heat undermine natural regulationSupply chainIMPLICATIONS FOR AGRICULTURE P7
Climate Change - Everyone's Business Implications for AgricultureAgriculture – managing risk and enhancing resilienceClimate change poses significant risks for the agricultural sectorand for global food security. Resilience to the impacts of a warmingworld will be enhanced by keeping the inevitable rise in averageglobal temperature below certain key thresholds.Agriculture in a Warming WorldRecent extreme climatic events, such as heat waves, floods,droughts, and wildfires, are combining with long-termtrends including rising temperatures and changes inprecipitation patterns, with broad and deep implicationsfor the agricultural sector.Reduced securityand quality offreshwater resourcesSteps for MitigationGreenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculturecomprised about 10–12% of man-made GHG emissionsin 2010. This is the largest contribution from anysector of non-carbon dioxide (CO2) GHGs such as methane,accounting for 56% of non-CO2 emissions in 2005. Theagricultural sector has significant potential to make cuts inGHG emissions.Reduced crop yieldsfor staples such aswheat, maize and riceSteps for AdaptationHigher prices andenhanced market volatility foragricultural commoditiesDestruction and/ordisruption to agriculturalinfrastructureDamage toagricultural productioncaused by pestsFalls in labour productivity,particularly for manual labourin humid climatesThreats to livestock, especiallyShifts in productionareas BusinessP8 Climate:Everyone'sof food and non-food cropsfrom heat stressAdaptation is highly context-specific, and no single approachfor reducing risk is appropriate across all regions, sectors,and settings. Farmers can adapt to some changes, but there isa limit to what can be managed. Agricultural companies candraw from a range of options to maximise adaptive capacitybased on a solid understanding of risks.
Key Findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)For more information cisl.cam.ac.uk/ipcc and bsr.orgResilience requires both mitigation and adaptationWe are currently on a path to a global mean temperature rise in the range1.5 to 4.5 C by the end of the century. The higher end of this range wouldpushagriculturefar beyond manageable thresholds. The agricultural sector’s own— OPTASCONSEDinterestsare best served by implementing ambitious approaches to mitigation to ensureQUI OPTATESSITthatkey temperaturethresholds are not crossed, while also working to enhanceHARUMQUAS?adaptiveto inevitabletemperature rises and associated climate events.Verrumcapacityaccus remquiGlobal temperatureincreases of 4 C ormore, combinedwith rising fooddemand, wouldpose large risks tofood security globallyand regionally.alitat ratio te volorumeum endit dolorae sisequis magnim quameconse pra pernatemaxim est, qui sitiberendissi igna.Supply Side Options Improve feeding and dietary additives for livestock Improve agronomy, nutrient and fertilisermanagement for cereals Establish agro-forestry systems Replace fossil fuels by biofuels Integrate bioenergy production andfood production3⁰CDemand Side Options Reduce overconsumption inregions where it is prevalent Reduce loss and waste of foodin supply chains Change diets towards lessGHG-intensive foodAdaptive capacity isprojected to beexceeded in regionsclosest to the equatorif temperatures riseby 3 C or more.Livestock Options Match stocking rates with pasture production Adjust herd and water point management Use more suitable livestock breeds or species Manage livestock diet quality More effective use of silage, pasturespelling and rotation Monitor and manage the spreadof pests, weeds and diseases1.5⁰CPolicy Options Index-based weather insurance Risk sharing and transfer mechanisms Public-private finance partnerships Payments for environmental services Improved resource pricing Trade reformLocal warming of upto 2 C is expectedto reduce averageyields for the majorcereals (e.g. wheat,rice, maize) intemperate regions.Crop Options Improve tolerance of crops to high temperature Breed additional drought-tolerant crop varieties Use adaptive water management techniques Alter cultivation and sowing times Improve crop rotation systems0⁰CIMPLICATIONS FOR AGRICULTURE P9
ResilienceFarmers and other players in the foodproduction chain have options foradapting to some climate change impacts.Adaptation is highly context-specific, andno single approach for reducing risk isappropriate across all regions, sectors, andsettings. The ability of the agriculturalsector to cope with climate events willdecline as the climate warms, and is likelyto be exceeded at certain temperatures.Strategies for effective, sustainable,and resilient crop production includeenhanced understanding of growingseasons, improved crop rotation systems,adaptive water management techniques,and higher quality weather forecasts.There is increasing evidence that farmersin some regions are altering cultivationand sowing times to deal with changinglocal conditions. Warming may extendthe growing season, so changing plantingdates is a frequently identified optionfor cereals and oilseeds provided there isnot an increase in drought at the end ofthe growing season. Changing plantingdates may increase yields by a median of3–17%. Early sowing is being facilitated byimprovements in machinery and by the useof techniques such as dry sowing, seedlingtransplanting and seed priming.Moreover, the optimisation of crop varietiesand planting schedules appears to be aneffective approach to adaptation, increasingyields by up to 23% compared with currentP10 Climate: Everyone's Businesspractices. This may be supplemented byfurther research on ‘climate-proofing’aspects of food production and its transportalong the supply chain. Businesses thathave extended agricultural supply chainscan evaluate and address vulnerabilityat the farm level to reduce risk, both forthemselves and for growers.High temperatures reduce crop yield andquality; so improving heat tolerance is afrequently identified adaptation for almostall crops. Improving gene conservationand access to extensive gene banks couldfacilitate the development of better-adaptedcrop varieties. Increasing drought in manyregions raises the need for breeding moredrought-tolerant varieties.Adaptive water management techniquesinclude enhancing storage and accessto irrigation water, more efficient waterdelivery systems, improved irrigationtechnologies such as deficit irrigation,more effective water harvesting, agronomythat increases soil water retentionthrough practices such as minimumtillage, and canopy management. Thesecomplement measures that integrateclimate forecasts at a range of scales.Further down the supply chain, companieswith significant water footprints for cropproduction and/or processing can trackchanging water resources and adjust theirsourcing strategies and production needsaccordingly.
GHG EMISSIONSFROM AGRICULTURECOMPRISED ABOUT10–12% OF GHGEMISSIONS IN 2010.While mostadaptationoptions are local,there is a role forglobal action.Many livestock systems are highly adaptedto past climate fluctuations
through climate change. After habitat loss, climate change is the most important threat to pollinating insects on a global basis. Crop yields Greenhouse gas emissions over many decades are already affecting production of rice, wheat and maize. Without adaptation, local temperature increases of 2 C are expected to reduce yields further. While CO 2
Bruksanvisning för bilstereo . Bruksanvisning for bilstereo . Instrukcja obsługi samochodowego odtwarzacza stereo . Operating Instructions for Car Stereo . 610-104 . SV . Bruksanvisning i original
3. Projected climate change impact on agriculture and its implications Cambodian agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change (Mainuddin et al 2010, CISRO 2008, ACIAR 2009, MoE 2010). The specifi c threats of climate change for agriculture include: † Changes in rainfall patter
the implications of climate change for the United States Army. This includes national security challenges asso-ciated with or worsened by climate change, and orga-nizational challenges arising from climate change-re-lated issues in the domestic environment. Given that, the study's starting point is the implications of climate change for the U .
Food Security and Nutrition 1.1.Climate Change and Agriculture Climate change shows in different transformations of climate variables that are causing significant economic, social and environmental effects. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in 2002, has defined climate change as “any change in climate over time,
10 tips och tricks för att lyckas med ert sap-projekt 20 SAPSANYTT 2/2015 De flesta projektledare känner säkert till Cobb’s paradox. Martin Cobb verkade som CIO för sekretariatet för Treasury Board of Canada 1995 då han ställde frågan
service i Norge och Finland drivs inom ramen för ett enskilt företag (NRK. 1 och Yleisradio), fin ns det i Sverige tre: Ett för tv (Sveriges Television , SVT ), ett för radio (Sveriges Radio , SR ) och ett för utbildnings program (Sveriges Utbildningsradio, UR, vilket till följd av sin begränsade storlek inte återfinns bland de 25 största
Hotell För hotell anges de tre klasserna A/B, C och D. Det betyder att den "normala" standarden C är acceptabel men att motiven för en högre standard är starka. Ljudklass C motsvarar de tidigare normkraven för hotell, ljudklass A/B motsvarar kraven för moderna hotell med hög standard och ljudklass D kan användas vid
LÄS NOGGRANT FÖLJANDE VILLKOR FÖR APPLE DEVELOPER PROGRAM LICENCE . Apple Developer Program License Agreement Syfte Du vill använda Apple-mjukvara (enligt definitionen nedan) för att utveckla en eller flera Applikationer (enligt definitionen nedan) för Apple-märkta produkter. . Applikationer som utvecklas för iOS-produkter, Apple .
