The Future Of Road Transport
Innovation on the moveThe future of road transportimage goes here
IRU2Document titleIRU3The future of road transportForewordUmberto de PrettoSecretary General, IRUIRU has always been synonymouswith innovation. Working at theheart of the road transport sector,we have pioneered revolutionarypractices that have transformedtransport and trade as we know it.70 years ago, with Europe stillreeling from the devastation causedby the Second World War, IRU wasestablished to facilitate and promotetrade and transport between nationsas they sought to rebuild. By buildinglinks between countries and makingit as easy as possible to transportpeople and goods by road, IRU wasinstrumental in helping to developand re-establish societies andeconomies through the TIR system,which later became a UN Convention.This year, as we celebrate our 70thanniversary, the world is a verydifferent place. Road transport andtrade have evolved beyond recognition.But one thing remains the same.Today, trade is still the driving forcebehind international prosperity andpeace. In a globalised economy,road transport is a vital productiontool interconnecting businessesand markets. And efficient,effective supply chains are thecornerstone of international trade.Around the world demand forroad transport is increasing;yet geopolitical uncertainty andinstability, coupled with widespreadsocial and economic disruption, isthreatening its growth. Burgeoninginternational trade wars andprotectionism pose significantconcern to the future of our sector.The insights from transportcompanies found in this reportprovide an important and timelysnapshot of our sector. They shinea light on the challenges andopportunities faced by those onthe front line, and help us to betterunderstand how we can support theindustry at this pivotal moment.Harnessing technology for a safe,successful and sustainable futureIn the face of this disruption anduncertainty, there is no doubtthat technology and innovationhold the key to unlocking growth,sustainability and success for theglobal road transport industry.New developments in technologyand innovation represent ahuge opportunity that we mustgrasp with both hands.As we open the doors to ourWorld Congress, this research willhelp to inform and enlighten thedebate in Oman. I look forward tous coming together as an industryto drive the transformation ofthe road transport sector.Yet we still have a job to do to ensurethe benefits of technology can beenjoyed by everyone in our sector.While innovative disruptors arecharging ahead, transport companiesin many parts of the world still lackthe resources or infrastructure tobenefit from digitisation. We need toensure we have the right foundationsin place to enable players in allcorners of the globe to seize theopportunities that technology brings.
IRU4The future of road transportIRU5ResearchMethodologyIn collaboration with IRU,Random SA developed aquantitative online survey totarget transport companies.The survey was completed bya global sample size of 450respondents working for atransport operator, transportbroker or freight forwardercompany in one of the 19 preselected countries covering threegeographical areas: Europe,the GCC and Asia. The researchsample was identified, recruitedand surveyed independentlyfrom IRU to ensure a broad,robust and representativepicture of transport companies.Quotas were set per countryand weighted to reach 150respondents per region.Additional quotas were setto reach a sample size ofminimum 50% CEOs/managersfrom the logistics departmentvs. non-managers from thelogistics department.The fieldwork took place fromend of August to mid-September2018 and was conducted underthe supervision of Random SA,by Asia Research Partners, oneof the leading Asian independentresearch companies, based inIndia. Random SA and AsiaResearch Partners are bothmembers of ESOMAR, the leadingglobal insights association tocertify that the highest ethicaland professional standardsare respected by memberresearch institutes. RandomSA ran the analysis (SPSS)in-house based on a statisticalsignificance levels of 95%.
IRU6The future of road transportIRU7The future of road transportExecutiveSummaryWhat is in the report?This report explores the challengesand opportunities facing the roadtransport sector worldwide, providinga snapshot of an industry thatrecognises it is operating and evolvingthrough a period of great change.The findingsThe global outlook for the roadtransport industry has never beencharacterised by so much changeand so many challenges.As such, it gives us a truly globalpicture, with insights into howtransport companies see the worldaround them and the issues theyfeel are threatening their business.The data shows that road transportcompanies are most concerned aboutthe big global issues that dominatethe international news agenda,rather than the more nuanced issuesspecific to the industry. According tothe findings, the biggest perceivedchallenge is geopolitical uncertainty,with 57% of respondents citing this asa major threat to their business. Thepossibility of another global recessionand worries about keeping up withincreasing customer demand comejoint-second, with 52% of respondentsmentioning each of these issues.Above all, they recognise thepotential of technology-driveninnovation to revolutionise theindustry from a commercial,operational and environmental pointof view, and they are excited fora future in which road transport iseasier, more efficient and safer.Despite these challenges, the roadtransport industry recognises that inan ever-more competitive businessenvironment, technology-driveninnovation has the potential to unlockimmense opportunities. They seesuccessful adoption of technologyas key to long-term survival.But at the same time, they seenumerous challenges and obstaclesto effectively adopting thesenew innovations. In light of thefindings, IRU makes several keyrecommendations for the industry andits stakeholders to consider in order tohelp fulfil its potential in the long term.When considering how technology willbest be able to change the industry,companies across the world agree thatthe biggest room for improvementlies in the area of safety. One inthree (33%) transport companies inEurope, the GCC and Asia namedthis issue as the top priority.The findings come from indepth interviews conducted withrepresentatives from transportcompanies, brokers and freightforwarding firms in 19 countriesacross Europe, Asia and the GulfCooperation Council (GCC) region.Possible innovations could includegreater adoption of alreadywidespread electronic stabilityprogrammes (ESP) and anti-lockbraking systems (ABS), or newertechnologies to assist drivers on theroad and help prevent the greatestcause of accidents – human error.For a further one in five, automationis the biggest innovation opportunity,a term encompassing everythingfrom driving assisted systems tofully-automated driverless trucks.Telematics is also an engagingprospect for road transportcompanies, who recognise thatdevelopments in areas such assmart fleet management couldoptimise operations and cut costs.Overall, the vast majority (92%) ofthe industry believes that improvedsafety for drivers will be a key benefitbrought by technology and innovation.But they are mindful of the differencethat continued improvements to theoptimisation and efficiency, as wellas environmental-sustainability, oftheir operations will make. Four in five(80%) of respondents from transportcompanies across the three regionsbelieve that new fleet managementsolutions, new digital platforms forvehicles and telematics on board willboost productivity. Greater engineefficiency is seen as the biggestopportunity across all regions whenit comes to environmental benefits.The IRU viewpointWhile this report shows thattransport companies areoptimistic for the future, there isclearly still work to be done.Transport companies are particularlyexcited – and surprisingly optimistic– about a future with autonomoustrucks. Over three quarters ofthe companies surveyed expectthey will become a viable optionwithin the next decade, with nearlya third even confident of thishappening in the next five years.But for automation, as with alltechnology-driven innovation,significant barriers remain. Muchwork still needs to be done toguarantee successful worldwidetechnology adoption.The nature of their concern differsaccording to location, but generallytransport companies agree on thebiggest challenges, with nearlythree quarters (71%) citing costand investment, and half (50%)feeling that there is a limitedunderstanding of the available rangeof emerging technologies available.As the world road transportorganisation, IRU promoteseconomic growth, prosperity andsafety through the sustainablemobility of people and goods. Theorganisation does this by bringingtogether operators, associations,industry suppliers and otherstakeholders from around the world.First and foremost, to overcomethe barriers that stand in the wayof truly innovating the industry, wemust see greater collaboration.The industry will requirecollaboration from governmentsaround the world in order to makesuccessful adoption a reality. Butthey must in turn proactively engagewith stakeholders when it comesto improving infrastructure andcreating an effective regulationframework worldwide.Looking at vehicle automationspecifically, although transportcompanies are excited about itspotential, the reality on the groundis that adoption is patchy. There isa long way to go before driverlesstrucks are a safe, secure andsustainable option worldwide.Pockets of the industry haveyet to embrace less advancedtechnologies and processes, andthere is still much to do to fix thedigital foundations of the industrybefore technology-driven innovationcan be optimised properly.IRU will continue working hardto foster relationships betweenoperators, service providers,manufacturers and governments tonurture a supportive environmentfor digitisation. We are fullycommitted to cultivating closercollaboration, greater harmonisation,and better knowledge sharing.
IRU8The future of road transportIRUIndustry snapshot:global trendsin road transport9Global demand for road transportis on the rise. By 2030, roadtransport is expected to move31,000 billion tonne kilometresglobally and up to 51,000 by 2050.The future of road transportPredicted global demand for road transport201520,000203031,0002050The impact of unprecedentedglobal upheaval and uncertaintyThe global outlook for the roadtransport industry has neverbeen characterised by so muchchange and so many challenges.Recent geopolitical and economicdisruption has shaken the OldWorld Order to its foundations,ushering in an era of disruptionand uncertainty which threatensfrictionless cross-border commerceand free-flowing trade.In its World Economic Outlook inOctober 2018, the InternationalMonetary Fund (IMF) issued a starkwarning about the damaging impactof burgeoning international tradewars and Brexit. Downgrading globalgrowth forecasts for 2018, the IMFpointed to higher trade barriers ashaving the potential to slow thespread of technology and reduceproductivity in many countries.For the road transport industry –one of the most important driversof global economic growth andproductivity – these gathering cloudspose a significant concern. Because,in spite of the precarious outlookfor the global economy, demandfor international road transportservices continues to grow apace.Macro events that threaten to putthe brakes on global commercewill therefore have a much widerknock-on effect on the economichealth of nations across the world.An industry under pressureGeopolitical uncertainty aside, theindustry is experiencing its own setof growing pains as the landscapeof road transportation continuesto evolve at a staggering pace.Technology-driven disruption isshaking up the sector, and it presentsa new set of challenges – fromcyber security concerns to skillsshortfalls. Transport companiesare being forced to evolve theiroperations and embrace digitisationor risk being left behind.At the same time, as the volumeof freight on our roads continuesto increase, the decarbonisationof road transport has become atop priority for governments andinternational organisations. Thereis no question that the sector hasmade important strides in reducingemissions. However, there is stillmore to be done, and it must berecognised that further investmentin cleaner technologies can bea significant financial challengefor some smaller operators.The view from the frontlineIn the context of this upheaval anduncertainty, it is more importantthan ever to have a clear and currentunderstanding of the view fromthe frontline of road transport.But the shape of road transportacross the world is shiftingradically – with new transportcorridors opening up and newtrade routes being established.This is why IRU has undertaken acomprehensive survey of transportcompanies in three key strategicregions for road transport and trade– Europe, the Gulf CooperationCouncil countries, and Asia.billion tonnekilometresbillion tonnekilometresbillion tonne51,000 kilometresChinaIndia10x6xincreased ten times, from 501,120million tonne kilometres to5,795,570 driven by significantinfrastructure investments anddeliberate policy interventionsincreased over six timesfrom 359,778 million tonnekilometres to 2,210,850By targeting both large andsmall transport operators, freightforwarders and brokers workingin road transport, IRU has createdan industry barometer that reflectsthe opinions of those ‘at the wheel’of the road transport sector.The findings of the survey offer aninvaluable insight into the threats,challenges and opportunitiesfaced by the road transportsector, and provide an importantsteer for sector stakeholderson how they can better supportall actors in the road transportindustry, now and in the future.However, growth in roadtransport in Europe has tailedoff in the last decade.EuropeAccording to the EuropeanCommission, over the pastten years road transport inthe EU 28 has grown at aslowerpacethan GDP at constant prices.While freight demand acrossEurope is not forecast toincrease significantly inthe near future, expertspredict that elsewherethere will be huge growth.In Asia, tonne kilometresfrom surface freight areestimated to increaseby a factor of 3.2 from2015 to 2050, accountingfor over two-thirds of allsurface freight globally.
IRU10The future of road transportIRU11The future of road transportRevealed: the top threatsto global road transportThe view from the GCC and AsiaFor transport companies in the GCCcountries and Asia, keeping up withchanging customer demand is on apar with geopolitical uncertainty asa top threat to their business. Thisperhaps reflects the rapid economicgrowth in Asia and the GCC regionas well as the resulting increasein demand for freight transportto meet consumer demand.Research into the attitudes oftransport companies, conductedas part of this IRU study, revealsthat all over the world the outlookfor transport companies is cloudedby political, social and economicuncertainty. As international tradewars continue to escalate, and withgrowing concerns about how tokeep transport flowing post Brexit,operators are understandablyconcerned about ‘macro’ globalissues impacting negatively ontheir day-to-day operations.We asked transport companies tothink about significant global issuesfacing the transport sector andto rate the biggest threats to thedevelopment of their business.Transport companies in Asia seeclimate and environmental changeas a much more significant threatthan operators in Europe and theGCC. This too could reflect theexplosion of demand for freight andmobility services in recent decadesin Asia. Similarly, it could be aproduct of the high-profilepolicy initiatives that seek touse regulation as a lever toencourage decarbonisationand mitigate the environmentalimpact of road transport.57%of transport operatorssurveyed viewed geopoliticaluncertainty as the biggestthreat facing road transportThe biggest threats facing road transport companiesGlobalGeopolitical uncertaintyGlobal recessionChanging customer demand57%52%52%EuropeGeopolitical uncertaintyGlobal recessionOver-regulation57%54%48%48%of transport companies in Asiasee climate and environmentalchange as a significant threatGCCGlobally, road transport companiesconsider their three biggestchallenges to be geopoliticaluncertainty, global recession andthe challenges of keeping up withchanging customer demand.The majority of transport operatorsacross every region surveyed (57%)view geopolitical uncertainty as thebiggest threat facing road transport.The risk of global recession andthe challenge of keeping up withchanging customer demand comea close joint-second at 52%.Geopolitical uncertaintyChanging customer demandGlobal recession57%57%55%AsiaGeopolitical uncertaintyChanging customer demandClimate change andenvironmental change55%55%48%
IRU12The future of road transportIRU13The future of road transportSpotlight on EuropeGeopolitical uncertainty, Brexitand global recession top the listof threats for European transportcompanies (57%), as theycontemplate the unprecedentedchallenge of remaining operationalin the case of a no deal scenario.Likewise, as the far-reachingimpact of the EU Mobility Packagebegins to be felt, overregulationis a significant concern for a largeproportion of European transportcompanies - almost half (48%)of those surveyed in Europecited this as one of the top threebiggest threats to their business.Uncertainty about the future ofthe road transport industry iscompounded by a growing Europeandriver shortage, which left uncheckedhas the potential to cripple thesector. Without a sufficient numberof drivers to meet the growingdemand from businesses andconsumers for ‘right here, rightnow’ delivery, there is a very realrisk that the demand for goods andservices outstrips the supply ofdrivers. Brexit and the restrictionsof free movement of goods andpeople, vehicles and drivers hasthe potential to exacerbate thisissue further if no agreement canbe reached between the UK andthe European Commission.The worst deal wouldbe a no deal Brexit.Matthias Maedge, GeneralDelegate of the PermanentDelegation to the EU, IRU:“Leaving the EU without acomprehensive multilateral deal onroad transport and trade would bethe worst possible outcome for theroad transport industry, with seriousknock-on effects for the economiesof both the UK and remaining EUmembers. Transport and trade couldgrind to a halt and businesses andlivelihoods would be threatened.“Leaving the EU withouta comprehensive dealon road transport andtrade would be the worstpossible outcome for theroad transport industry”Matthias Maedge, GeneralDelegate of the PermanentDelegation to the EU, IRUIRU is currently working withgovernments, policy makers andwith the sector to ensure the bestpossible deal for road transport. Wewant to see concrete provisions forthe free movement of goods, accessto the road transport and labourmarkets, the mutual recognitionof documents and certificates andclear customs procedures.”“In today’s turbulent politicaland economic climate, it is nosurprise that there is a feelingof uncertainty and anxiety in theglobal road transport industry.Trade wars, Brexit and the loomingspectre of global economicdownturn mean that transportoperators today are facing anunprecedented challenge.At IRU we believe fervently inthe flow of free trade betweencountries, facilitated by thesecure and seamless movementof goods, vehicles and drivers.It is the key to unlocking globalprosperity, peace and growth.Currently there is no system moreseamless than a customs union.Without a customs union, the UKand EU must take steps to minimisedisruption. This means ensuringa transition period of sufficientlength to allow business to adapt.It means no increase in red tapeor complexity for vehicles postBrexit. And it means maintainingsmooth and seamless transport andt
For the road transport industry – one of the most important drivers of global economic growth and productivity – these gathering clouds pose a significant concern. Because, in spite of the precarious outlook for the global economy, demand for international road transport services continues to grow apace. Macro events that threaten to put
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