CHAPTER 3 AVIATION AND PASSENGER FORECAST (2015

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CHAPTER 3AVIATION AND PASSENGERFORECAST (2015-2035)3.1 OVERVIEWThis chapter summarizes historical aviation andpassenger activity at OGG and presents annualaviation demand forecasts through the 2035planning period. The base forecast year for thisstudy is 2014. The forecast, together withinformation on existing and presently plannedfacilities presented in Chapter 2 are used inChapter 4 to evaluate and identify modificationsand/or additions to existing airport facilities thatare necessary and appropriate for development.3.2 PASSENGER ACTIVITY ANDFORECASTFigure 3-1 on Page 3-2 shows total historicinter-island air passenger levels between 1990and 2014. Data for 2015 (last quarter) isestimated and passenger activity levels are forboth enplanements and deplanements.The events of September 11, 2001 saw asignificant decrease in passengers. A secondKahului Airport Master Plan Updatesignificant decrease occurred in 2007 due to arecession. From 2007 to 2010, an 18% decreasewas observed totaling 5,346,694 passengers in2010. Although this represents an 8.29%increase over a 20-year period from 1990 to2010, a larger increase was previously seen from1970 to 1990 which saw a 323% increase.According to passenger forecasts by MartinAssociates, LLC, (See Appendix A, “Passengerand Operations Level Projections, KahuluiAirport, October 2011”), passenger levels willnot return to pre-recession (2007) levels untilafter 2025. Air operations from 2001 to 2007,reflects the decline in passenger counts. SeeFigure 3-2 on Page 3-2.Regularly scheduled direct overseas service toOGG started in January 1983. Prior to this date,overseas flights to OGG were occasionallychartered. The number of overseas flights hasincreased while inter-island traffic has declinedfrom 1990 to 2014. See Figure 3-3 on Page 3-3.3-1

0,0002,000,0001,000,00001990199319961999Total Air Passengers20022005200820112014Interisland Air PassengersOperationsFigure 3-1 Historical Passenger Levels at Kahului and Maui Passenger LevelsFigure 3-2 Operations at Kahului Airport 1990-2014Scheduled overseas air carrier service is currentlyprovided by Air Canada, Alaska Airlines,American Airlines, Continental Airlines, DeltaAirlines, Hawaiian Airlines, United Airlines, U. S.Airways, and WestJet, using Boeing 737 (B-737),Boeing 757 (B-757), Boeing 767 (B-767), andBoeing 777 (B-777) aircrafts. Non-stop domesticoverseas service is provided to Dallas, Denver,Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Oakland, Phoenix,Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose,Seattle/Tacoma, and Vancouver. Service betweenthe OGG and other domestic and foreignKahului Airport Master Plan Updateoverseas points is provided throughHonolulu International Airport (HNL).theScheduled inter-island air carrier service isprovided primarily by Hawaiian Airlines onBoeing 717 (B-717) aircraft. American Airlinesand Continental Airlines offer some passengerflight services to Honolulu.Hawaiian Airlines, Mokulele Airlines, Island Air,and Makani Kai Air provide regularly scheduledinter-island commuter airline service. Additional3-2

PassengersFigure 3-3 Overseas Flights versus Inter-Island Flights to Kahuluiinter-islandflightsareprovidednonscheduled sightseeing air taxispassenger origins primarily from HNL.bywithThe number of inter-island passengers increasedslightly from 1990 to 2001 from 3,343,653 to3,582,229. Over the last decade, the inter-islandpassenger volumes presented in Figure 3-3include passengers transported by regularlyscheduled commuter airlines and assengers during this period used regularlyscheduled flight services. A number ofsightseeing tour operators are based at HNL andpark their aircraft at OGG’s East Ramp for theduration of the sightseeing tour. Some air taxiflights are also provided by OGG’s fixed baseoperators.3.2.1 HELICOPTER/AIR TAXI ACTIVITYIn addition to the inter-island sightseeing air taxiservices, a number of helicopter sightseeingcompanies offer tours of Haleakalā, Hāna, ‘IaoValley, and other scenic attractions on Maui fromOGG’s East Ramp. These companies includePapillon Helicopters, Alex Air, Maui Helicopters,Hawai‘i Helicopters, Sunshine Helicopters, KenaiAir of Hawai‘i, Cardinal Helicopters, PacificHelicopter Tours, Makani Kai Helicopters, andBlue Hawaiian Helicopters.Helicopter operations, categorized as air taxi atOGG, numbered approximately 56,030 in 1990.Kahului Airport Master Plan UpdateSee Figure 3-2 on Page 3-2. Air taxi operationsincreased from 1990 to 1999 by approximately91,000. There was a sharp decline in 2001,followed by a gradual increase in 2010 to 59,387operations (Department of Business, EconomicDevelopment and Tourism (DBEDT), Hawai’iTourism Authority (HTA, 2010)).The helicopter sightseeing tour companiesprimarily use four (4) to six (6) passenger Bell206, Hughes 500, and Aerospatiale AS-350helicopters. These companies do not filepassenger data with the State; consequently noofficial annual passenger counts are available.However, discussions with representatives of thehelicopter companies suggest that most flightsoperate at, or close to, their passenger seatingcapacity.3.2.2 INTRA STATE PASSENGERORIGIN-DESTINATION DATAStatistics on inter-island and overseas operationsbetween the OGG and other airports from 1990to 2014 are presented in Figure 3-3. During thisperiod, overall aircraft operations have beendecreasing for inter-island travel. However,overseas aircraft traffic to OGG increased duringthe same period.3.2.3 AIR CARGO ACTIVITYThe historical volume of air cargo, enplaned anddeplaned, at OGG are presented in Figure 3-4.3-3

Pounds (lbs.)Figure 3-4 Air Cargo Activity at Kahului Airport (1990-2014)on Page 3-4. The figures include cargo carriedby both air taxi and scheduled air carriersMost of the all-cargo inter-island flights occur atnight, with Aloha Air Cargo B-737-200 aircraftshandling the bulk of the loads. Incoming flightsto OGG deliver a wide variety of perishable fooditems, newspapers, and manufactured goods.Outgoing cargo consists primarily of perishablessuch as fruits and vegetables. United ParcelService (UPS) is another all-cargo carrier using B767 aircraft.From 2010 to 2014, air cargo on signatory interisland carriers was moved on B-767 aircraft.Non-signatory cargo mainly used B-737-200 andB-737-300 aircraft. In 2010, there were nooverseas signatory cargo operations. Cargotonnage handled at OGG peaked at about46,000 tons in 2003 and has been steadilydecreasing. As shown in Figure 3-4, air cargooperations have shown no growth, overall. Somefactors inhibiting growth on air cargo operationsinclude the increased use of inter-islandmaritime shipping as well as decreasedpineapple shipments.3.2.4 MAILFigure 3-5 on Page 3-5 shows the volume ofmail handled at OGG. Since 1990, there has beena consistent increase in mail volume.Kahului Airport Master Plan Update3.2.5 AIRCRAFT OPERATIONSTotal aircraft operations reported at the OGGdeclined from 182,686 in 1990 to 118,896 in2010. This constitutes a 35% decrease over a 20year period. See Figure 3-6 on Page 3-5. Someof the changes in air carrier, air taxi, and generalaviation operations indicated by the data aredue to changes in the way aircraft operations areclassified rather than to actual changes in thenumber of aircraft flying. An example of thischange is the de Havilland Canada Dash 7 (DHC7). Since 1989, the FAA counts the DHC-7 aircraftoperations as “commuter/air taxi operations”,whereas they were previously included in the “aircarrier” category.From 1990 to 2014, air carrier and air taxioperations at OGG have been declining withprojected increases occurring after 2015. Generalaviationoperationshavebeensharplydecreasing from 1990 to 2014. However, militaryaircraft operations have been relatively stablecompared to other operations over the last 20years. The military operations consist primarily oftraining flights by the Hawai‘i Air National Guardand U. S. Navy and Marine Corps aircrafts basedon O‘ahu. Figure 3-2 on Page 3-2 shows abreakdown of the total operations, bothhistorical and forecasted, for air carriers, air taxi,general aviation, and military flights.3-4

PassengersFigure 3-5 Air Mail Handled at Kahului AirportPassengersSource: DOTA. State of Hawaii Airport Activity Statistics by Calendar Year. (2014)Figure 3-6 Total Annual Operations at KahuluiSource: DOTA. (2014)3.2.6 BASED AIRCRAFTThere are currently 71 fixed base aircraftoperations at OGG; 36 helicopters and 35 fixedwing aircraft, situated along the East Ramp.Aircraft are housed in T-hangars or utilizetiedowns fronting the T-hangars.Kahului Airport Master Plan Update3.3 AVIATION DEMANDFORECASTThe DOTA Hawai‘i Aviation Demand Forecasts,updated in 2004, provides forecasts forpassengers, air cargo and mail, aircraftoperations, and based aircraft for all of the majorairports in the State. Appendix A contains adescription of the methodology used indeveloping the forecasts. It is expected that OGG3-5

Overseas Operations (2007-2035)12,000No. of 01020152020202520302035YearsFigure 3-7 Overseas Operations Historical Data from 2007 to 2014 and Forecast Data from 2015 to2035Source: Hawaii Aviation Demand Forecastswill remain the principal airport on the island ofMaui and should be expanded as needed tosupport the island’s growth. The aviation activityforecasts for OGG are presented in Figure 3-7and Figure 3-8 on Page 3-7.3.3.1 Overseas and Inter-islandOperationsThe aviation demand forecasts contained in thisMP Update were prepared by analyzing thehistorical aviation activity and the State ofHawai‘i DBEDT socioeconomic projections. Thehistorical and projected population and visitordata, an overview of Hawai‘i's visitor industry,the updated aviation demand forecasts for theState, and the individual counties and theforecast methodology and assumptions arediscussed in the Hawai‘i Aviation DemandForecasts. See Appendix A. The Hawai‘i AviationDemand Forecasts represent "unconstrained"demand, i.e., they assume the necessarytransportation, visitor accommodations, andother facilities will be available. Other importantassumptions include consistent populationKahului Airport Master Plan Updategrowth rate increases and that no policies wouldbe implemented to constrain aviation growth.Figure 3-7 shows historic aviation data (2007–2014) and forecasted overseas operations (2015–2035). Figure 3-8 on Page 3-7 shows historicdata for inter-island operations (2007 – 2014),and forecasted inter-island operations (2015 –2035).3.3.2 PassengersThe Hawaii Aviation Demand Forecasts (2004)indicates that total statewide passengers wouldincrease from 31,959,439 in 2002 to 43,848,600by 2025, an annual average increase of 1.4%.County of Maui passengers were forecasted toincrease to 5,857,220 in 2025. Overseas domesticpassengers were estimated to increase to7,924,100 by 2025 from 5,416,503 in 2002. Thisrepresents a growth rate of 1.7% in County ofMaui and an overall increase of 46%. In addition,international passenger service was expected tocommence by 2005. In order to accommodateadditional international operations, securityimprovements and passenger handling facilities3-6

will need to be added. OGG will also need toobtain a certification with the U.S. Department ofTransportation (DOT) Office of InternationalAviation.The economic downturn that began in 2007,severely impacted air travel nationwide. Figure3-9 shows historic overseas passenger activity(2007-2014) and forecast passenger activity(2015 – 2035) with a slight increase inpassengers by 2035. The forecasted planningperiod assumed that aircraft arriving at OGGwould be operating at a 79% load factor. Figure3-10 on Page 3-8 shows historical inter-islandpassenger activity (2007-2014) and forecastedpassengeractivity(2015–2035).30,000No. of 09201020152020202520302035YearsFigure 3-8 Inter-island Operations Historical Data from 2007 to 2014 and Forecasted Data from 2015 to 20354,000,0003,500,000No. of ears79% Load Factor85% Load FactorFigure 3-9 Overseas Passengers Historical Data from 2007 to 2014 and Forecasted Data from 2015 to 2035Source: Hawaii Aviation Demand ForecastsKahului Airport Master Plan Update3-7

Inter-island Passengers (2007-2035)3,500,0003,000,000No. of e 3-10 Inter-island Passengers Historical Data from 2007 to 2014 and Forecasted Data from2015 to 2035An exception to this is passengers on charter3.3.3 AIR CARGO AND MAILflights between Canada to Maui. These chartersFORECAST ACTIVITYare the principal users of a pre-clearancearrangement between Canada and the UnitedThe total volume of air cargo is anticipated toStates. This pre-clearance occurs from airportsremain consistent during the forecast period,where FIS facilities and personnel are present.while mail volumes are projected to increase atOverseas passengers from these flights arean annual rate of 2.5% as shown in Figure 3-4included in the “overseas” category in Table 3-3on Page 3-4.on Page 3-10.3.3.4 POTENTIAL FORINTERNATIONAL AIR TRAFFICPresently, there are no scheduled internationalflights to or from the OGG, and there are noFederal Inspection Service (FIS) facilities for theprocessing of arriving international passengers.Consequently, all incoming passengers frominternational destinations must clear customsand immigration at HNL or mainland airportsbefore flying on to Maui. The historical absenceof international flights to and from the OGG is afunction of many factors including existinginternational agreements, airlines’ assessmentsof the market potential for such a service, and alack of airport facilities.Kahului Airport Master Plan Update3.4 PEAK PERIOD FORECASTPeak-period passenger and aviation demandforecasts have been prepared for the averageday of the busiest month. These forecastsinfluence airfield, terminal area, ents for the OGG. Peak-hour aviationdemand forecasts for enplaned passengeractivity, airline activity, and aircraft operationsare summarized in Table 3-1 to Table 3-6 onPages 3-10 and 3-11 and are discussed below.3-8

3.4.1 PASSENGER AND AIRLINEACTIVITYAugust is typically the busiest month for airlinepassenger traffic at the OGG. The peak month’sshare of the annual total has remained constantover many years. The planning period forecastsfor both inter-island and overseas passengervolumes will continue to assume that 10-11% ofthe annual total will continue to occur in themonth of August.The methodology to estimate the future level ofoperations by aircraft type for overseas andinter-island flights consists of the followingsteps: The baseline passenger forecasts for interisland and overseas operations assume the2010 distribution of passengers are:- 54.2% overseas- 45.8% inter-islandAn estimate of the number of seats by typeof aircraft deployed in 2010 was developedfrom industry standard aircraft seatingconfigurations. The projected passengerswere next allocated across seating capacityby aircraft type for overseas and inter-islandflights.Three (3) scenarios were then developed for theoverseas flights as follows.A. Baseline Scenario 1 consists of the followingassumptions: The 2010 seating capacity allocation byaircraft type will remain constant overthe projection period. That 2010 seating capacity utilization of79% will remain constant over theprojection period.B. Scenario 2 assumes seating capacityutilization increases. The assumptions are: The 2010 seating allocation by aircrafttype will remain constant over theprojection period.Kahului Airport Master Plan UpdateThe seating capacity utilization willincrease to 85% by 2011.C. Scenario 3 assumes the addition of overseasflights based on target markets now underconsideration by DOTA. The key assumptionsunderlying Scenario 3 include: In 2012 add one (1) daily Pacific Northwestflight, using B-737-800 series aircraft, toaccommodate the growing Canadian marketand to provide another U. S. mainlandgateway. In 2012 add one (1) daily Asian flight usingB-767-300 series aircraft, consistent withmarketing Maui to the high endJapanese/Korean visitor market. In 2014 add one (1) additional daily PacificNorthwest flight and one (1) additionalAsian Flight. The number of overseas passengers willgrow to reflect new added flights with aseating capacity utilization of 85%.Table 3-1 on Page 3-10 presents the projectedlandings by aircraft type for the BaselineScenario 1 for the overseas market. Thehighlighted rows in the table are actualoperations and passenger levels.The overseas projections under Scenario 2, arepresented in Table 3-2 on Page 3-10.The overseas projections by aircraft type underScenario 3 are presented in Table 3-3 on Page3-10. The orange shaded rows indicate the resultwhen two (2) daily Pacific Northwest flights andone (1) daily Japanese/Korean flight are added.Table 3-4 and 3-5 on Page 3-10 show historicand projected inter-island operations andpassenger activities through the planningperiod.For all tables included in this chapter, 2010represents actual data and 2015 serves as thebase year.3-9

le 3-1 Projected Overseas Landings and Passengers by Aircraft Type – Scenario 2851,34806711,0802651,1227497215089,681Table 3-2 Projected Overseas Landings, and Passengers, by Aircraft Type – Scenario e 3-3 Projected Overseas Landings and Passengers by Aircraft Type – Scenario ,1613,1023,235002,1392,23123,80424,823Table 3-4 Projected Inter-island Landings and Passengers by Aircraft Type – 77% Seating UtilizationKahului Airport Master Plan Update3-10

,01312,10420205,6522,96802,04722,775Table 3-5 Projected Inter-island Landings and Passengers by Aircraft Type – 85% Seating UtilizationThe recorded 2009 overseas air carrier summerschedules showed that approximately 10-11% ofthe daily inter-island flights occurred during thepeak hour. Since this percentage has also beenconsistent over the years, the forecasts assumethat the peak will continue at this levelthroughout the forecast period. The forecastsassume that about 15% of total daily inter-islandpassengers will travel during the busiest hourbecause passenger load factors are higherduring the peak hour than they are during theremainder of the day. Currently, approximately20% of the daily overseas flights occur duringthe peak hour. As the number of overseas flightsincrease, this percentage is forecasted todecrease to 16% by the year 2035.will continue to be approximately the samethrough the year 2035.3.4.2 AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS ANDPASSENGER FORECASTTable 3-6 presents operations terminal areaforecasts (TAF) for passenger enplanements atOGG. As noted earlier, August is typically thebusiest month for aircraft operations as well aspassengers. Approximately 10-11% of the totaloperations recorded in previous years occur inAugust. The forecasts presented in this reportassume that this relationship will continuethrough the year 2035 planning period.In 2010, the percentages of enplaning anddeplaning passengers were nearly equal.Therefore, this study assumes that the numberof enplaned and deplaned passenger volumesDateTAFEnplanementsMartin BaseEnplanementsMartin IncreasedPNW and AsianFlightsEnplanementsMartinBase/TAF %DifferenceMartin IncreasedPNW and 4333,183,8933,451,328-14.3%-7.1%Table 3-6 Comparison of Master Plan Passenger Projections with the FAA Terminal Area ForecastsSource:Martin and Associates, Passenger and Operations Activity Level Projections for Kahului Airport,October 2011 (Martin) Pacific Northwest (PNW)Kahului Airport Master Plan Update3-11

projection period. Under the increased overseasflight scenario (Scenario 3) developed in this MPUpdate, the projections are within 8% of the TAFprojections in 2010, and in fact, are nearlyidentical to the TAF projections in the years 2015through 2021.Table 3-6 presents a comparison of the MPUpdate passenger projections for the OGG withthose developed by the FAA TAF. As this tableindicates, the passenger projections are typicallywithin 5% through the year 2020, under both thebaseline and high passenger projectionscenarios developed under the current MP. Inlater years of the projection period, the MPUpdate projections are within 10% of the TAFprojections through 2025 under the baseline andhigh passenger projections, with the MPprojections being lower in the later years of 1202220232024202520262027202820292030ItinerantAir tAir Taxi General 752,3752,3752,3752,3752,3752,375Table 3-7 shows the projected aircraftoperations from 2010 to 2030. The projectedannual total increase in operations isapproximately 1% annually. The total changeprojected to occur between 2015 and 2030 isapproximately 14%.ItinerantLocalSubTotal General 41139,415140,406Table 3-7 Projected Annual Operations by Type of ActivityKahului Airport Master Plan Update3-12

FORECAST (2015-2035) 3.1 OVERVIEW This chapter summarizes historical aviation and passenger activity at OGG and presents annual aviation demand forecasts through the 2035 planning period. The base forecast year for this study is 2014. The forecast, together with information on existing and presently planned facilities presented in

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