10. Rural SWOT Report - GOV.WALES

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Welsh Government NDF Regions and Rural Study10. Rural SWOT ReportMarch 201911

Welsh GovernmentNDF Regions and Rural Areas StudyRural SWOT ReportContentsPage12Introduction11.11.21.3124Study ContextApproachThis ReportApproach to SWOT52.12.22.3566OverviewData ValidationWays of working3SWOT Results84Role of the .15.25.3What the NDF could identify28What rural issues and spatial areas the NDF should focus on29How the NDF should support rural policy development31FiguresFigure 1 NDF RegionsFigure 2 NDF TimelineAppendicesAppendix ASWOT Results Issue 13 March 201927

Welsh GovernmentNDF Regions and Rural Areas StudyRural SWOT Report1Introduction1.1Study ContextFollowing the consultation on the National Development Framework (NDF)Preferred Option in the summer of 2018 1, the Welsh Government are now in theprocess of developing the Draft NDF with consultation planned for July 2019.As set out in the Preferred Option, it is proposed the NDF will include bothnational and regional policies across the defined regions. The three regions willcover North, Mid and South West and South East Wales as shown in Figure 1.Figure 1 NDF t-framework-issues-options-and-preferred-option Issue 13 March 2019Page 1

Welsh GovernmentNDF Regions and Rural Areas StudyRural SWOT ReportThis reflects the regions identified by the Welsh Government’s Economic ActionPlan. Chief Regional Officers have been appointed for each region and havecommenced work to develop the Welsh Government’s approach to improvingregional working and delivery. The Planning Act facilitates this approach andprovides a legal framework for the preparation of Strategic Development Plans(SDPs) on a regional basis.From a regional perspective the NDF’s role includes supporting the delivery ofthe Welsh Government’s regional policies and better strategic planning /collaboration between Wales’ Local Planning Authorities (LPAs).The programme for the NDF is illustrated in Figure 2 below with consultation onthe Draft NDF planned for July to September 2019 and Assembly consideration ofthe Draft between April and June 2020.Figure 2 NDF Timeline1.2ApproachThe objectives for this Regions and Rural Areas Research Study are:a) To develop an evidence base for each NDF region that supports NDF policydevelopment and using this, to identify the issues and spatial areas NDFpolicies should focus on;b) To identify broad rural areas and develop an evidence base that supports NDFpolicy development and using this, to identify the issues and spatial areasNDF policies should focus on; andc) To involve stakeholders in a and b.To help achieve the study objectives, Ove Arup & Partners (Arup) who werecommissioned to undertake this Study, produced a suite of reports that address therequirements for the study.These are summarised in Table 1 below: Issue 13 March 2019Page 2

Welsh GovernmentNDF Regions and Rural Areas StudyRural SWOT ReportTable 1 Study Approach and ReportsOutputReportsContentsStudy Overview1.Study Overviewa)Data andDefinitions Report2.Data and DefinitionsReportb) Introduction including context,purpose of study and reports, andstructurec) Data collection includingapproach, method, cooperation,findings, stakeholder feedback,how data has been utilised in theresearch with tables and maps.d) Defining ‘Major’ –includingemployment sites,retail/commercial sites,generating stations and transportschemese) Defining and mapping keysettlementsf) Adjoining English regionsg) Defining Rural Areash) Consideration of the Well-beingof Future Generations Acti) Summary of StudyWorkshopReports3.Regional Workshop Report– North WalesRegional Workshop Report– Mid & South West WalesRegional Workshop Report– South East WalesRural Workshop Report– North WalesRural Workshop Report– Mid & South West WalesRural Workshop Report– South East Walesj)4.5.6.7.8.SWOT 2 Reports9. Regional SWOT Report10. Rural SWOT ReportApproach to stakeholderinvolvementk) Workshop arrangements andattendeesl) Results of activitiesm) Summary of stakeholderfeedbackn)o)p)q)r)s)2NDF context, purpose of studyand reports, Arup’s involvementApproach to SWOTStakeholder feedbackData validationSWOT analysisRole of the NDF in supportingand addressing the SWOTs,considering interrelationshipsand ways of workingSummary of what the NDFshould do to support / addressSWOTs in regions and ruralareasStrengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) Issue 13 March 2019Page 3

Welsh GovernmentNDF Regions and Rural Areas StudyRural SWOT ReportAs a suite of documents, the Data and Definitions Report should be read alongsidethe associated Workshop and SWOT Reports for a comprehensive understandingof the results and findings of the research.All outputs that comprise the suite of reports for the study provide context,purpose and cross reference to each other as appropriate.In particular, the Data and Definitions Report clearly explains the approach to thestudy and reporting, providing an overview of the outputs together as required.The study reports have been published on the National Development Frameworkwebsite by the Welsh Government separately and alongside each other 3.1.3This ReportThrough stakeholder engagement and data gathering, the study helped to establishan evidence base of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT)within each region (and common to those regions), as well as rural areas.Two separate SWOT Reports have been prepared as follows:1. Regional SWOT Report; and2. Rural SWOT Report.This Rural SWOT Report outlines the relevant results of stakeholder engagement,data verification and presents the SWOT and analysis around appropriate policyintervention areas and spatial scales (e.g. national, regional, local or communityplanning) focusing on rural areas. It draws together a range of data andinformation for each of the three regions related to rural planning issues,presenting this in both tabular form and spatially.This report considers what the NDF can do to support and address the SWOTpertinent to rural areas. Importantly, as well as supporting the development of theDraft NDF, the outcomes of this research will also be used to support thedevelopment of SDPs, LDPs and joint-LDPs.This Regional SWOT Report is presented in the following sections: Section 2 provides a high-level summary of the SWOT discussions across thethree NDF Regions; Section 3 provides a SWOT analysis and considers issues pertinent to theemerging NDF; and Section 4 provides recommendations for the NDF in light of the SWOTanalysis.Appendix A presents an extended table of the SWOT issues raised withinworkshop discussions, to include those considered to be outside the NDF’s development-framework-for-wales/?lang en Issue 13 March 2019Page 4

Welsh GovernmentNDF Regions and Rural Areas StudyRural SWOT Report2Approach to SWOT2.1OverviewThis section of the Report considers the results of the stakeholder workshops (seeWorkshop Report for full results), and identifies the Strengths, Weaknesses,Opportunities and Threats for the rural areas within the three Welsh Regions.Section 3 provides a high-level summary of the Rural SWOTs and includes awide range of issues spanning all scales and policy areas.As required by the commission, these issues have been sifted in order to provide afocus for the NDF and those policy areas considered to be appropriate forconsideration within the NDF are identified as such in the SWOT results below.The criteria that have informed this sifting process include:a) Whether the issue / policy area is a planning consideration;b) Whether there is a spatial planning / policy intervention (e.g. is not a matter offunding / financial viability only);c) Whether the issue / policy area is best considered at the regional / nationalscale (also taking into account the results of the stakeholder workshopcontributions on this topic); andd) Whether an initiative or process already exists that would address the issue(e.g. planning obligations).Where an issue is more of a strategic matter rather than a rural focuses point, thishas been considered as part of the separate Regional SWOT Report, which shouldbe read alongside this report.To provide a consistent approach to classification, Strengths and Weaknessesapply to the current (baseline) position, whilst Opportunities and Threats apply tothe future perspectives.For each of the topics that are considered to be strengths or weaknesses (i.e.current issues), comments have been made as to where strengths or weaknessesare addressed, supported or delivered outside of planning.To avoid unnecessary duplication and given the future perspective ofopportunities and threats, similar commentary is not considered to be relevant andso has not been provided. Issue 13 March 2019Page 5

Welsh Government2.2NDF Regions and Rural Areas StudyRural SWOT ReportData ValidationIn addition to the SWOT analysis compiled through workshop events, this sectionof the report also considers how this analysis compares to the data collected aspart of the wider commission 4.The commentary in the tables in Section 3 therefore identifies where data eithercontradicts or compliments the trends / views emerging from the SWOT. This isnot specific or in detail, but the data collated can be found in the Study Report.Where strengths, weaknesses, opportunities or threats associated with particulartopics have not been specifically raised by stakeholders in one or more of thethree regions, but where data exists to help clarify a position, a comment has beenprovided.2.3Ways of workingA key point raised during stakeholder discussions was the need for the NDF toreflect and drive the ways of working as advocated in the Well-being of FutureGenerations (Wales) Act 2015. Key issues for the NDF to take into accountinclude:Long termThe NDF should present a vision for rural areas in Wales, thinking long term.Priorities for growth, investment and strategic decision making around ruralindustries, related sectors and future changes (e.g. diversification of ruraleconomies and agriculture) need to be clearly set out.The NDF should articulate how policy interventions will ultimately impact onWales and its rural areas. This will help address current needs and challenges in away that safeguards the ability to meet long-term needs.PreventThe NDF should provide a clear direction as to the policy interventions that areneeded to prevent current problems and those anticipated in the future fromhappening or getting worse.For example, the NDF should be clear as to the direction of travel for policymaking around the identification of strategic areas for renewable energy relateddevelopment, related to spatial planning and policy development aroundassociated themes including transport and decarbonisation.Data beyond the scope of the commission has not been collected to inform this validationprocess.4 Issue 13 March 2019Page 6

Welsh GovernmentNDF Regions and Rural Areas StudyRural SWOT ReportInvolveThe NDF should encourage involvement from stakeholders at an early stage inpolicy and project development, to help make sure that the planning systemreflects the [sometimes different] needs of the population across Wales, its regionsand rural communities.CollaborateThe NDF should encourage collaboration between key stakeholders (private andpublic sector), decision makers and delivery bodies at an early stage to helpachieve the long-term policy objectives of the Welsh Government and its partners.This is important to helping address many of the non-planning barriers and needs,such as funding, viability and deliverability.This will also support the ability to create innovation and best practice sharingacross sectors (e.g. funding and delivery models).IntegrationThe NDF should make sure that policy areas are considered as a whole,acknowledging the importance of cross sector working and the interrelated natureof planning. Issue 13 March 2019Page 7

Welsh Government3NDF Regions and Rural Areas StudyRural SWOT ReportSWOT ResultsThis section outlines the results of the rural SWOT.3.1.1Summary of key issuesTable 2 provides a summary of the key rural issues raised that are applicable to allthree NDF regions, including issues raised in the context of stakeholderdiscussions.The Workshop Reports provide a full account of stakeholder feedback from theevents held in each region.A breakdown of rural issues specific to the North Wales, Mid & South WestWales and South East Wales regions are thus contained within the respectiveRural Workshop Reports for each region. The Study Report – Data andDefinitions considers all stakeholder engagement undertaken as part of theresearch, as well as data collected and its associated analysis.While these key issues may in some cases span SWOT categories (i.e. anopportunity may also be seen as a threat), they have been classified as a strength,weakness, opportunity or threat for the purposes of presentational clarity.Table 2 Summary of Key IssuesStrengths Community resilience / responsivenessand proactiveness of rural communities. Cultural heritage Young farmers / similar groups Welsh language / culture Sustainable use / management ofresources Access to natural environment Tourism Marine / costal environment Ports Community supported agriculture Digital based SMEs Issue 13 March 2019 Digital infrastructure Agriculture Artisan skills Film and TV industry Income from green tourism Topography / landscape Hydro / tidal energy Early retirements / asset to community Lifestyle / well-being International appeal Sense of community Brecon as a growth area Universities Well-connected / accessible rural areas Proximity to populous areasPage 8

Welsh GovernmentNDF Regions and Rural Areas StudyRural SWOT ReportWeaknesses Housing isolated from facilities Out-migration – working age / young Housing delivery not meeting need Rural infrastructure Lack of / access to affordable housing Market forces failing Reliance of a few national house builders Big agriculture Commuter hubs now communities Agriculture no longer labour intensive Tourism benefits vs impacts Big farms swallow financial support Domination / prominence of tourism Listed buildings expensive to run Tourism focussed on car travel Septic tank regulations Over-reliance on car Less community focussed planning Distance to work Seasonality – tourism and agriculture Employment opportunities Low wage employmentEconomy focussed on agriculture andsmall industry Welsh language not sufficiently protected Healthcare EV infrastructure lacking in rural areas Mental health / social isolation Grid connectivity Depopulation – especially youngPattern of travel to school – impact onhealth Land viability Rent / buy houseCritical mass to maintain viability ofsettlements Transport expensive Need for long distance travel Rail infrastructure / routing Bus passes stop at border In-migration / purchase of homes / secondhomes Large land mass Ageing population Land values Increasing house / property prices Uncertainty over future of farming andimpact on land management Water pollution Traveller communities in rural areasOpportunities Community champions / officers Water management at a strategic level Continued protection of agriculturalcommunities Management of super farms Local house builders / self-build Food – source and distribution More types of affordable housing Construction industry Services and amenities related to wellbeing Automation and upskilling Transport for long distance travel / P&R EV charging infrastructure Decentralised energy generation /community energy Offshore renewables Balance renewables against landscape Major event to showcase region Housing co-op Planning as language enabler Need to focus on places not ‘rural’ Issue 13 March 2019 Waste circular economy Skills / education in traditional crafts Sustainable homes through PD Private water supplies SuDS Re-use of existing buildings Support for re-use of listed buildings Policy framework for rural life NDF articulating environmentalopportunities SMEs promoting high quality jobs Countryside vs highlandsPage 9

Welsh GovernmentNDF Regions and Rural Areas StudyRural SWOT ReportOpportunities Place planning to sustain communities Social innovation /entrepreneurship Policy for Welsh speaking areas Resource of early retired community NDF opportunity to invest Improving digital (5G) Green tourism / diversification of offer Location of futuristic services Tourism tax Working from home Rural jobs Modernisation of schools Careers / education and brokeringqualifications Growth deal Post Brexit review of land Retail/commercial town centres Energy island Regional universities Sea walls to protect critical infrastructure Reservoirs as attractions Fishing and use in Wales WBFGAThreats Community willingness / time Retaining skills and promoting careers Rural areas turning into commutingvillages Idyllic / simplistic view of rural areas is abarrier to development Threat to language and culture (fromgrowth) Social care for the elderly Lack of service / housing – outwardmigration 16 access to schools Transport investmentBrexit (including influence of Irish portsand connection with Europe) Electricity network limitations (e.g.increased demand from EV) and funding Need for protection – seen asdevelopment infill opportunities Fuel prices and impact on ruralcommunity Communities that are stagnant / stuck inthe past Ageing population – isolation Agriculture and relationship with Brexit Reliance on car Challenge of financing infrastructure Regional differences Movement of services / population toSouth East Wales Skills Aspirations for children in rural areas Retention of people / outmigration ofyoung Reliability of digital networks Fishing quotas Protection of non-designated areas Relationship between NDF and landmanagement post Brexit Air pollution / carbon impact of farming More constraints to address whendeveloping in rural areas – barrierLoss of sheep farming / impact on uplandvegetation Rural areas being forgotten / side-lined Land banking (landowners not bringingforward sites for development) Water quality / environment andintensification of farming Funding cuts barrier to intervention Flood risk Employment opportunities and equality Issue 13 March 2019Page 10

Welsh Government3.1.2NDF Regions and Rural Areas StudyRural SWOT ReportSWOT issues and the NDFKey issues that are considered to be pertinent to the role of the NDF are set out inTable 3 to Table 6 below. Each issue references the NDF region within which itwas raised, alongside where the data collected validates or contradicts the specificissue. A summary comment is also made about how the issue ought to beaddressed and/or delivered outside the remit of spatial planning.An extended summary and deeper analysis of these issues with respect to the roleof the NDF is contained within Section 3.2; this includes details of including ofthe spatial scale, policy focus, infrastructure requirements for each issue raised.Appendix A presents an extended table of the SWOT issues raised withinworkshop discussions, to include those considered to be outside the remit of theNDF. Issue 13 March 2019Page 11

Welsh GovernmentNDF Regions and Rural Areas StudyRural SWOT ReportTable 3 SWOT Issues and the NDF - StrengthsStrengthNorthWalesMid &SouthWestWalesSouthEastWalesYYData shows that there is also a significantnumber of designated heritage assets in NorthWales.YProtection and promotion, resource managementand maintenance.YData shows the use of Welsh language is mostprominent in the North Wales and Mid & SouthWest Wales regions.YGovernment policy and programmes (e.g. Welshlanguage targets and initiatives).Data suggests that the natural environment is astrong asset to all regions.YMaintenance and management.Further study may help to clarify or support thisacross other regions.YMaintenance and management.Data shows tourism is also an important sectorin North and South East Wales.YNational and local promotion and funding.Further study may help to clarify or support thisacross other regions.YManagement plans and conservation.Cultural heritage assets in rural areasRural areas important to Welsh languageand/or cultureYYSustainable use and management ofnatural resourcesYYAccess to the natural environment / greenspacesYYTourismYMarine environment / coastal areasYYData ValidationNDFRoleAddressed / delivered outside of planningPorts (e.g. Holyhead)YData shows that there is important portinfrastructure in all regionsYSector-specific programmes and strategies (e.g.trade and skills).Digital infrastructureYFurther study may help to clarify or support thisacross other regions.YSector-specific programmes and strategies (e.g.broadband and skills).AgricultureYFurther study may help to clarify or support thisacross other regions.YFunding (e.g. EU), land management and sectorspecific programmes.Brecon as a growth areaYFurther study may help to clarify or support thisacross other regions.YLand availability and viability, market forces.Data shows that Wales is most well-connectedby road.YGovernment policy (e.g. sustainable transporthierarchy) and operation / maintenance.Well-connected and accessible rural areas(by road network) Issue 13 March 2019YPage 12

Welsh GovernmentNDF Regions and Rural Areas StudyRural SWOT ReportTable 4 SWOT Issues and the NDF - WeaknessesWeaknessData ValidationNDF RoleYFurther study may help toclarify or support this acrossother regions.YGovernment policy (e.g. targets),land availability and market interest/ forces.Over-reliance on the carYFurther study may help toclarify or support this acrossother regions.YGovernment policy (e.g. sustainabletransport hierarchy) and funding inalternative modes.Employment opportunitiesYFurther study may help toclarify or support this acrossother regions.YFiscal incentives and marketdrivers, sector-specific programmesand strategies (e.g. skills).Data shows the use of Welshlanguage is most prominentin the North Wales and Mid& South West Wales regions.YGovernment policy andprogrammes (e.g. Welsh languagetargets and initiatives).YFurther study may help toclarify or support this acrossother regions.YMarket forces and lack ofgovernment strategy on theprovision of infrastructure.YFurther study may help toclarify or support this acrossother regions.YMarket processes (e.g. demand ledsystem) and age of infrastructure.Further study may help toclarify or support this acrossother regions.YGovernment policy and funding.Housing delivery not meetingneeds of the community –estimates not accurateNorth WalesMid & SouthWest WalesYWelsh language not sufficientlyprotectedYEV infrastructure lacking in ruralareasYGrid connectivityRural infrastructureY Issue 13 March 2019South East WalesYPage 13Addressed / delivered outside ofplanning

Welsh GovernmentNDF Regions and Rural Areas StudyRural SWOT ReportTable 5 SWOT Issues and the NDF - OpportunitiesOpportunitiesNorthWalesMid &SouthWestWalesSouth EastWalesData ValidationNDF RoleFurther study may help to clarify or support this across other regions.YYFurther study may help to clarify or support this across other regions.YYFurther study may help to clarify or support this across other regions.YOffshore renewablesYFurther study may help to clarify or support this across other regions.YBalance renewables against landscapeYFurther study may help to clarify or support this across other regions.YServices and amenities related to well-beingYEV charging infrastructureYDecentralised energy generation model / communityenergy schemesYNeed to focus on places not ‘rural’YFurther study may help to clarify or support this across other regions.YPolicy for Welsh speaking areasYData suggests that the use of the Welsh language is still most prevalentin the North Wales and Mid & South West Wales regions.YPost Brexit review of land useYFurther study may help to clarify or support this across other regions.YEnergy islandYFurther study may help to clarify or support this across other regions.YSea walls to protect critical infrastructureYFurther study may help to clarify or support this across other regions.YWater management (catchment areas) at a strategic levelYFurther study may help to clarify or support this across other regions.YYFurther study may help to clarify or support this across other regions.YFurther study may help to clarify or support this across other regions.YFurther study may help to clarify or support this across other regions.YPolicy framework should understand rural life and beflexibleYNDF articulating environmental opportunitiesYImproving digital accessibility and 5GYGrowth dealYFurther study may help to clarify or support this across other regions.YRetail / commercial town centresYData shows there are key retail and commercial centres across Wales.YRegional universities / satellite campusesYData shows that there is also University infrastructure in North Walesand South East Wales.YFurther study may help to clarify or support this across other regions.YBalance of sustainable development (economy, social,culture and environment) with the Well-being of FutureGenerations Act Issue 13 March 2019YYYPage 14

Welsh GovernmentNDF Regions and Rural Areas StudyRural SWOT ReportTable 6 - SWOT Issues and the NDF ThreatsThreatsNorthWalesMid &SouthWestWalesSouthEastWalesData ValidationNDF RoleRegional differencesYFurther study may help to clarify or support this across other regions.YRelationship between NDF and land management postBrexitYFurther study may help to clarify or support this across other regions.YFlood riskYFurther study may help to clarify or support this across other regions.YEmployment opportunities and equalityYFurther study may help to clarify or support this across other regions.YBrexit (including influence of Irish ports and connectionwith Europe)YFurther study may help to clarify or support this across other regions.YNeed for protection – seen as development infillopportunitiesYYFurther study may help to clarify or support this across other regions.YAgriculture and relationship with BrexitYYFurther study may help to clarify or support this across other regions.YProtection of non-designated areasYFurther study may help to clarify or support this across other regions.YFurther study may help to clarify or support this across other regions.YRural areas being forgotten / side-linedY Issue 13 March 2019Page 15

Welsh GovernmentNDF Regions and Rural Areas StudyRural SWOT Report4Role of the NDF4.1ApproachMany issues spanning different policy areas have been identified as eitherstrengths, weaknesses, opportunities or threats across the three Welsh regions. Tohelp focus on what the NDF can do to help address, support or consider thoseissues of most relevance, groups of issues have been grouped in themes.Those themes are analysed in Table 7.Firstly, each theme is considered with a summary of its strengths, weaknesses,opportunities or threats across the three Welsh regions.Then each theme considers the appropriate spatial area / scale, policy focus,infrastructure requirements and links to other policy areas / objectives.The analysis considers each theme and what the NDF could do to maximise /promote its strengths and opportunities and reduce / address its weaknesses andthreats.This has involved both distilling stakeholder views and applying the authors’professional judgement from experience of the Welsh and other planning systems.It should be acknowledged that whilst particular themes and issues have beensourced to stakeholder feedback pertinent to particular regions, some of the pointscan be considered to be Wales wide. That is drawn out as part of therecommendations made in section 4 of this report.As aforementioned, there are also wider themes that impact on rural areas but arenot necessarily rural specific themes (e.g. minerals and waste). These areconsidered as part of the ‘Regional SWOT Report’, which sits alongside this‘Rural SWOT Report’. Readers may wish to consider both alongside each otherfor a complete overview of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats inthe rural areas and the three Welsh regions.For rural areas in particular, the evidence presented in the SWOT results showsthat many of the themes involve issues that should be addressed / deliveredoutside of planning and are thus beyond the scope of ‘what the NDF could do’.That being said, there are still clear opportunities for the planning system to helpsupport rural areas across Wales and this Section serves to explain how.It is important to acknowledge that this section is a factual and succinct account ofthe SWOT analysis, its results and Arup’s view on the role of the NDF issupporting or addressing the key issues raised across Wales and within eachregion relating to rural areas as appropriate. Issue 13 March 2019Page 16

Welsh Government4.2NDF Regions and Rural Areas StudyRural SWOT ReportInterrelationshipsAs set out above, each theme considers links to other policy areas / objectives.It is clear that many of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats raisedby stakeholders and identified through data collection and analysis – are pertinentto both rural areas and the wider regions in Wales. This indicates that there islimited variation between the issues and policy areas that people consider to beimportant at a general level when compared to rural specific matters.This could partly be explained by Wales having large extents of rural orperipheral areas. This could also be partly explained by stakeholders involved inthe study not considering the planning system to be a specific barrier todevelopment in Wales or its rural areas, but there being a range of wider issuesthat interface with planning and development that may not be best addressed /delivered through the planning s

Two separate SWOT Reports have been prepared as follows: 1. Regional SWOT Report; and 2. Rural SWOT Report. This Rural SWOT Report outlines the relevant results of stakeholder engagement, data verification and presents the SWOT and analysis around appropriate policy intervention areas and spatial scales (e.g. national, regional, local or community

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