# Probabilistic Modeling Of A Sales Funnel To Prioritize Leads

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Figure 4: Conversion and closed-won lift curves for FFM. Top:Company A. Bottom: Company B.Figure 5: Closed-won lift curves, FFM versus DQM. Top:Company A. Bottom: Company B.of closed-won, using (α, β) (0, 1). With this same ordering,we compute separate curves that track the number of successfulsales and the sales revenue. Similarly, experiments with FFM rankleads based on expected revenue, but with this same ordering weagain plot lift curves corresponding to number of conversions, successful sales, and the sales revenue. We use only one ordering forlift curves because this most closely matches the teleprospectingscenario, in which teleprospectors use a single ranking when contacting leads.5.3Figure 5 contrasts the closed-won lift curves for FFM and forDQM with (α, β) (0, 1), both trained using all behavioral andstatic features. The ranking of leads for DQM is based on expectedclosed-won probability, while the ranking for FFM is based on expected revenue, so the closed-won curves are better for DQM. Thisis because the win probability for higher revenue deals tends to belower, but the expected revenue is still higher for these deals.Figure 6 compares revenue for the same models. For companyA, DQM performs poorly at achieving lift in revenue. This is because the model focuses on closing the less risky, smaller magnitude sales. In general, the DQM method is less appropriate if thereis high variance in the sales price. Alternatively, separate DQMmodels could be built for separate products or price ranges.In Figure 5, the region to the very right of the FFM curve forcompany A (the straight line region) indicates that this methodgives lowest priority to leads that with high confidence result ina low-revenue win. The DQM method achieves high initial closedwon

Figure 1 shows a typical sales funnel. The different cross sec-tions of the funnel represent different stages as a lead moves for-ward in the sales process, from the top of the funnel to the bot-tom. The decreasing diameter of the funnel represents a smaller and sm

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