Guidelines For Tunnelling Risk Assessment

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ITA WG 2 – Guidelines forTunnelling Risk AssessmentIntroduced by:Eric Leca, EGIS SAAnimateur of WG2Reported by:Søren Degn Eskesen, COWI A/S#ITA - AITES---SeoulApril 20061

Guidelines forTunnelling Risk AssessmentRisk definitions Hazard:A situation or condition that has the potential forunwanted consequences:–Human injury–Damage to property–Damage to environment–Economic loss–Delay to project completionRisk:A combination of the frequency of occurrence of a definedhazard and the consequences of the occurrence#ITA - AITES---SeoulApril 20062

Guidelines forTunnelling Risk AssessmentHazard and riskIdentified hazardConsequencesFrequency / probabilityRisk#ITA - AITES---SeoulApril 20063

Guidelines forTunnelling Risk AssessmentRisk managementPlanning/policySystem definitionHazard identificationConsequence analysisFrequency analysisRiskRisk analysisRiskacceptancecriteriaRisk ble#ITA - AITES---SeoulApril 20064

Guidelines forTunnelling Risk AssessmentRisk analysis Risk analysis: a structured process which identifies both theprobability and extent of adverse consequences arising from a givenactivity. Risk analysis includes identification of hazards and description ofrisks, i.e. probabilities and consequences (qualitative or quantitative)Risk acceptance criteria Common sense: aim at reducing risk once identified More formal criteria:– The risk shall be below a certain value–Cost benefit type criteria / ALARP (As Low As ReasonablePracticable - Developed in UK and widely used)#ITA - AITES---SeoulApril 20065

Guidelines forTunnelling Risk AssessmentHigh riskRisk is intolerable andshall be reduced regardlessof costsUnacceptableregionRisk shall be reducedas long as the costsare reasonable comparedwith the risk reductionachievedALARP regionBroadly acceptableregionNo need for consideringrisk reductionNegligible risk#ITA - AITES---SeoulApril 20066

Guidelines forTunnelling Risk AssessmentScope and purpose To present a guidelinefor designers to preparecomprehensive tunnelling risk assessment To indicate to owners what is acceptedindustry practice for constructionrisk analysis Does not include guidelines forcontractor'srisk management#ITA - AITES---SeoulApril 20067

Guidelines forTunnelling Risk AssessmentContents0. Abstract1. Introduction and scope2. Use of risk management3. Objectives of risk assessment4. Risk management in early design stages5. Risk management during tendering and contract negotiation6. Risk management during construction7. Typical components of risk management8. Risk management tools9. References#ITA - AITES---SeoulApril 20068

Guidelines forTunnelling Risk AssessmentRisk Management Activities, three stages2. Phase I: Early design stages3. Phase II: Tendering and contract negotiation4. Phase III: Construction#ITA - AITES---SeoulApril 20069

Guidelines forTunnelling Risk AssessmentRisk management activity flowPhase I: Early design stagesOWNEREstablish risk policyQualitative risk assessmentSpecific (quantitative) riskassessmentRisk register#ITA - AITES---SeoulApril 200610

Guidelines forTunnelling Risk AssessmentRisk management activity flowPhase II: Tendering and contract negotiationOWNERCONTRACTORPreparation of tender documents, including: Description of significant technical risks Technical requirements to mitigate risk Description of required risk competencePreparation of tender, including: Proposed risk management systemSelection of contractor, evaluation of Contractor's ability to perform riskmanagement Risks involved in contractor's proposedtechnical solutions Description of experience andcompetence in risk management Identification and description of risksassociated with the proposed technicalsolutionIdentification and description ofproposed risk mitigation measuresPrepare contract with risk clauses#ITA - AITES---SeoulApril 200611

Guidelines forTunnelling Risk AssessmentRisk management activity flowCONTRACTORPhase III: ConstructionOWNEREstablish risk management systemSupervision and inspection ofcontractor's riskmanagementDetailed risk assessmentAssessment and mitigation ofowner's riskPropose risk mitigationApprove on contractor's riskmitigationImplement risk mitigation#ITA - AITES---SeoulApril 200612

Guidelines forTunnelling Risk AssessmentList of hazardsGeneral hazards:1.2.3.4.5.Contractual disputesinsolvency and institutional problems,authorities interference,third party interference,labour disputesSpecific hazards:6.7.8.9.10.Accidental occurrences,unforeseen adverse conditions,inadequate designs, specifications and programmes,failure of major equipment, andsubstandard, slow or out of tolerance works.#ITA - AITES---SeoulApril 200613

Guidelines forTunnelling Risk AssessmentConstruction risk policyA construction risk policy may indicate: scope, risk objectives, and risk management strategy#ITA - AITES---SeoulApril 200614

Guidelines forTunnelling Risk AssessmentRisk Policy ScopeAs an example the scope may include the following risks: to the health and safety of workers, including personal injury and, in the extreme,loss of life to the health and safety of third party people to third party property, specifically normal buildings, cultural heritage buildingsand infrastructure to the environment including pollution, and damage to flora and fauna to the owner in delay to the completion to the owner in terms of financial losses#ITA - AITES---SeoulApril 200615

Guidelines forTunnelling Risk AssessmentRisk Management StrategyThe risk strategy should provide: a definition of the risk management responsibilities of the various partiesinvolved (different departments within the owner's organisation, consultants,contractors) a short description of the activities to be carried out at different stages of theproject in order to achieve the objectives a definition of methods to be used for follow-up on results obtained throughthe risk management activities. This could be accomplished by establishing arisk register of some form.#ITA - AITES---SeoulApril 200616

Guidelines forTunnelling Risk AssessmentQualitative risk assessment Hazard identification through brainstorming sessions withrisk screening teams. Classification of the frequency, consequence and risklevels of the identified hazards. Identification of risk reduction measures. Documentation of risk management work in risk register.#ITA - AITES---SeoulApril 200617

Guidelines forTunnelling Risk AssessmentAssessment of Scenario FrequenciesFrequency of occurrence in the construction periodDescriptivefrequency classFrequencyclassCentral valueFrequencyIntervalVery likely51 0.3Likely40.10.03 – 0.3Occasional30.010.003 – 0.03Unlikely20.0010.0003 –0.003Very unlikely10.0001 0.0003#ITA - AITES---SeoulApril 200618

Guidelines forTunnelling Risk AssessmentConsequence classesDisastrousSevereSeriousInjury to workers andemergency crew(No. of fatalities / Injuries*) 30 F3 F 301-3 F3-30 I1-3 SI3-30 MI 3 MIInjury to third partypersons(No. of fatalities / Injuries*)Economic loss to thirdparty (mio. Euro) 3F1-3 F3-30 I1-3 SI3-30 MI 3 MI- 30.3 to 30.03 to 0.30.003 to 0.03 0.003 303 to 300.3 to 30.03 to 0.3 0.03 2years½-2 years2-6 months½-2 months 2 weeksEconomic loss to owner(mio. Euro)Delay in construction (perhazard)Harm to the inor damage effectsConsiderable or damage*F fatality, SI serious injury, MI minor injury.#ITA - AITES---SeoulApril 200619

Guidelines forTunnelling Risk AssessmentHazard Ranking / Risk ClassificationRisk leInsignificant54321FrequencyVery AcceptableNegligibleVery ligibleAcceptable#ITA - AITES---SeoulApril 200620

Guidelines forTunnelling Risk AssessmentRisk ClassificationRisk ClassificationExample of actions to be applied against each classUnacceptableThe risk shall be reduced at least to Unwanted regardless of the costs ofrisk mitigationUnwantedRisk mitigation measures shall be identified. The measures shall beimplemented as long as the costs of the measures are notdisproportional with the risk reduction obtained (ALARP principle, aslow as reasonably practicable)AcceptableThe hazard shall be managed throughout the project. Consideration ofrisk mitigation is not requiredNegligibleNo further consideration of the hazard is needed#ITA - AITES---SeoulApril 200621

Guidelines forTunnelling Risk AssessmentQuantitative risk assessment (example) Identify and select risks to be quantified. Assign most likely, minimum and maximum figure for each frequency andconsequence. Calculate the resulting risk estimate as a probability distribution(instead of a single figure) allowing presentation of e.g. 50%, 75% and 95%fractals for the risk.Quantification is most suitable for estimation of the risk of economic loss to the owner anddelay, but may in principle be used for all types of risk.#ITA - AITES---SeoulApril 200622

Tunnelling Risk Assessment 0. Abstract 1. Introduction and scope 2. Use of risk management 3. Objectives of risk assessment 4. Risk management in early design stages 5. Risk management during tendering and contract negotiation 6. Risk management during construction 7. Typical components of risk management 8. Risk management tools 9. References .

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