Capacity Planning - TEP
Capacity PlanningMichael SheehanDirector, Supply-Side PlanningTEP and UES Resource Planning Workshop 1
Capacity Planning Requirements4,0003,500How much do we need?3,000What technologies?Demand (MW)2,500What are theenvironmental impacts?Peaking Requirements2,000How much will it cost?Intermediate Requirements1,500How do we meet ourregulatory requirements?1,000Base Load 6202820302
Renewable Energy Standard Requirements RES Compliance – 15% by 2025EnergyGWh 535Cumulative reduction of about 7000 GWhEquates to approximately 3.5 million tons of CO2 (2010-2020)*Approximately 500 MW of renewable nameplate capacity* Assumes a diversified mix of renewable resources with an average capacity factor of 30%3
Electric Market OverviewEnergy Efficiency Resource Standards and Goals4
Energy Efficiency Requirements Summit Blue Consulting»»»Developed long-range forecast to target different levels of EE by 2020Modeled based building simulation models of existing programsDetailed hourly data aggregated to capture energy and net coincidentsystem peak reductions Base Case assumes Energy Efficiency target of 15% by 2020 Sensitivity cases were designed to study effects on changes inportfolio mix and timing.5
2020 Energy Efficiency ImpactsEnergy, Demand and Carbon ReductionsBase Case Energy Efficiency Targets (2020)TEPUNSETotalProjected Energy Reductions, GWh1,6003001,900Cumulative Energy Reductions, GWh (2010-2020)7,0001,5008,500Equates to approximately 5 million tons of CO2 (Cumulative 2010-2020)Base Case Demand Reductions (2020)Residential & Commercial DSM Programs, MWDirect Load Control, MWDemand-Side Management Reductions, MWTEPUNSETotal40010050070-704701005706
Energy Efficiency CasesTucson Electric Power and Unisource Electric25%Base Case - 15% by2020% of Retail Load20%15%Scenario 1 - 10% by202010%5%Changes in Portfolio1. Resource Types2. Technologies3. Timing4. TransmissionScenario 2 - 3% by20200%2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 20307
Tucson Electric PowerTotal Capacity Requirements4,0003,5003,000Demand (MW)2,500Peaking Requirements2,000Intermediate Requirements1,5001,000Base Load 6202820308
Tucson Electric PowerCapacity Requirements with Existing Resources4,0003,5003,000Demand (MW)2,5002,000Future BaseLoadRequirements1,5001,000Existing Coal 2820309
Tucson Electric PowerCapacity Requirements with Existing Resources4,0003,5003,000Demand ng Intermediate Resources1,5001,000Existing Coal 28203010
Tucson Electric PowerCapacity Requirements with Existing emand (MW)2,500Existing Peaking Resources2,000Existing Intermediate Resources1,5001,000Existing Coal 28203011
Tucson Electric PowerCapacity Requirements with 15% Energy Efficiency Target by 20204,0003,500Energy Efficiency Impacts All Resource Requirements3,000Reduction ofPeaking andIntermediateResourcesDemand (MW)2,500Existing Peaking Resources2,000Existing Intermediate Resources1,5001,000IncreasesSurplus ofBase LoadResourcesExisting Coal 28203012
Tucson Electric PowerCapacity Requirements with 15% Energy Efficiency Target by 2020and 15% Renewable Energy Target by ediateDeficienciesDemand (MW)2,500Existing Peaking Resources2,000Existing Intermediate Resources1,5001,000Existing Coal 28203013
Unisource ElectricCapacity Requirements with 15% Energy Efficiency Target by 2020and 15% Renewable Energy Target by 2025600500Existing Peaking Resources(Black Mountain & Valencia Generating Station)Peak Demand, (MW)400300Intermediate& Base 0262028203014
Long-Term Forecast Assumptions2009 SPRING REFERENCECASE15
Permian Gas Market, /mmBtuMarket Sensitivity 25High GasSensitivityAnnual Average /mmBtu 20Base Case 15Low CaseSensitivity 10 5 02010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 203016
Wholesale Market Prices, /MWhMarket Sensitivity 180High CaseSensitivityAverage Annual (7x24) /MWh 160 140Base Case 120Low CaseSensitivity 100 80 60 40 20 02010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 203017
CO2 Emission Prices, /TonCarbon Case Sensitivity 70High CarbonSensitivity 60Annual CO2 Price /TonBase Case 50 40 30 20 10 02010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 203018
Wholesale Market Prices, /MWhHigh Carbon Case Sensitivity 160High Carbon CaseSensitivityAverage Annual (7x24) /MWh 140Base Case 120 100 80 60 40 20 02010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 203019
Conventional Resources Cost»»»and performanceVentyxElectric Power Research Institute (EPRI)Utilities Widerange of conventional technologies evaluated Plant construction, transmission & long-term O&M Project development requirements Plant environmental profiles part of analysis20
Conventional Resources2009 Levelized Cost of Delivered Electricity ( /MWh)300Peaking Resources 249250Base Load and Intermediate Resources 243Interconnection & EHVGenerationLCOE /MWh200 172 168150 115 110 100100 85 60500Aero-Derivative CTLM6000TypicalCapacityFactor %10%Frame 7FACombustionTurbine (CT)Aero-Derivative CTLMS 100Integrated CoalGassificationCombined Cycle(IGCC) with CCS10%18%70%Integrated CoalGassificationCombined Cycle(IGCC)75%Fuel Cost Assumptions /mmBtu: ( Natural Gas 8.00, Coal 2.50, Nuclear 0.60 )Nuclear85%Combined Cycle(CC)50%Pulverized Coal85%Energy EfficiencyVaries21
Conventional Resources (Carbon Case)2009 Levelized Cost of Delivered Electricity with 50/Ton CO2 Tax ( /MWh)300 276 270250 50/Ton CO2 TaxInterconnection & EHV 199200GenerationLCOE /MWh 173 165150 135 120 110100 60500Aero-Derivative CTLM6000TypicalCapacityFactor %10%Frame 7FACombustionTurbine (CT)10%Aero-Derivative CTLMS 100Integrated CoalGassificationCombined Cycle(IGCC) with CCSIntegrated CoalGassificationCombined Cycle(IGCC)Nuclear18%70%75%85%Fuel Cost Assumptions /mmBtu: ( Natural Gas 8.00, Coal 2.50, Nuclear 0.60 )Combined Cycle(CC)50%Pulverized Coal85%Energy EfficiencyVaries22
Thermal ResourcesConstruction Costs and Operating Characteristics (Detail)Plant Construction CostsUnitsAeroDerivativeLMS 100Gas TurbineAeroDerivativeLM6000Gas TurbineFrame 7FAGasTurbineCombinedCycle (CC)CompressedAir EnergyStorage(CAES)PulverizedCoalIGCCIGCC withCCSNuclearProject Lead TimeYears4445478912Installation YearsYear 51605701004006003801000Plant Construction Cost2009 /kW 1,020 850 660 970 1,593 2,680 3,383 5,164 5,870EHV/Interconnection Cost2009 /kW 52 104 29 159 52 432 1,143 1,804 401Total Plant Cost2009 /kW 1,072 954 689 1,129 1,645 3,112 4,526 6,968 6,271Fixed O&M2009 /kW-yr 11.95 22.00 19.90 22.00 43.00 43.93 74.45 85.10 110.83Variable O&M2009 /MWh 3.30 2.85 3.75 2.15 1.80 4.00 4.65 5.35 0.55Gas Transportation2009 /kW-yr 16.80 16.80 16.80 16.80 16.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Annual Heat ,00010,400Capacity FactorAnnual %18%10%10%45%15%85%75%70%85%Expected Annual ized Cost of Energy /MWh 172 243 249 100 305 85 115 168 110CO2 Ratelbs/MWh1,0591,1531,2358472672,1011,8862260SO2 40.000NOX 00.000HG 61.17E-05VOC 0.000PM10 70.000Water UsageGal/MWh150150150350757508009001,000Peak CapacityOperating CharacteristicsEnvironmental Profile4.25E-06 4.59E-060.00023
Renewable Resources Data aggregated from studies done by:»»» Black & VeatchNational Renewable Energy LaboratoryRecent RFP ActivityWide range of renewable resources evaluatedLocation effects cost and performanceSystem integration and backup capacity factored into evaluationTechnology innovation curves are also assumed24
Renewable ResourcesConstruction Costs and Operating Characteristics (Detail)Cost and Operating CharacteristicsUnitsNM WindAZ WindSolar PVSolar 1-AxisSolar CSPSolar CSP 6HourBiomassDirectProject Lead TimeYears2222222Installation YearsFirst nstruction Cost2009 /kW 2,300 2,600 4,000 4,500 6,075 6,500 3,500EHV/Interconnection Cost2009 /kW 400 300 50 50 300 300 300Total Construction Cost2009 /kW 2,700 2,900 4,050 4,550 6,375 6,800 3,800Construction Cost with ITC2009 /kW 2,000 2,125 2,850 3,200 4,500 4,850 2,750Fixed O&M2009 /kW-yr 50.00 50.00 12.00 12.00 35.00 50.00 83.00Variable O&M2009 /MWh 22.00 15.00Fuel Cost2009 /MWhSystem Integration Costs2009 /MWh 5.00 5.00 4.00 4.00 2.00 2.00 0.00Levelized Cost of Energy /MWh 120 140 197 166 181 172 107Typical Capacity FactorAnnual %38%30%17%24%30%38%85%NCP %13%9%33%51%70%87%100%800800100Peak CapacityNet Coincident Peak ContributionWater Usage 44.00Gal/MWhITCQualifyYESYESYESYESYESYESYESTax -Year5-Year25
Renewable Resources2009 Levelized Cost of Delivered Electricity ( /MWh) 250 197 200 181LCOE 2009 /MWh 166 150 172 140 120 107Backup Capacity 100Delivery 169 151 153Solar (1-Axis) Solar Thermal, Solar Thermal,CSPCSP 6 HRSolar PV 140 50 100 79Generation 91 0Capacity Factor %System Peak %Water UsageBiomass DirectNM WindTurbineAZ 4%LowLowLowLow26
2015 Renewable Technologies DeliveredCosts Adjusted for Technology Innovations ( /MWh) 250.00 Mature TechnologyNew Transmission Needed Technology InnovationsLocal Area Site Development 200.00Backup Capacity 150.00 /MWhEHV/InterconnectionGeneration 100.00 50.00 Biomass DirectAZ WindSolar PV (1-Axis) CSP with StorageSolar PV Fixed27
Renewable Technologies (Delivered)Costs Adjusted for Technology Innovations, /MWh 300.00Utility Scale Fixed PV 250.00WindBiomassCSP /MWh 200.00 150.00Utility Scale (1-Axis) PV 100.00 50.00 2010201520202025203028
Sensitivities and ScenariosFUTURE UNCERTAINTIES29
Electric Power Horizons 2009Scenarios of the Global Energy Future Ventyx Advisors with assistance from industry expertsidentified four distinct themes which are expected tohave the greatest impact on the future energy businessenvironment over the next 25 years. The themes weredrawn from the key uncertainties.»Global Turmoil due to gas supply disruptions thedomestic policy shifts to energy independence andprotectionism»Technology Evolution driven by mandated CO2reductions»Global Economy movement due to collapse ofmajor industries in U.S. and global consolidation»Return to Reliability for both generation andtransmissionVentyx Confidential
Electric Power Horizons 2009Summary of Key Assumptions and Scenario DriversEconomic GrowthGlobal TurmoilTechnology EvolutionGlobal EconomyReturn to ReliabilityLowStatus QuoHighStatus QuoReduced - conservation worksMedium- Expanded MarketsMedium High - EESSlow growthElectricity DemandIncreased in later yearsLoad Factor3.6% increase due to addition of heavyindustryNo change3.6% decrease due to loss ofheavy industryEES standard modifiesload factorEnergy EfficiencyLowMediumHigh; 15% by 2020Medium HighGas SupplyLNG constrainedStatus QuoLNG acceleratedStatus QuoGas PriceHighMedium highLowMediumCoal PriceHighLowMedium lowMedium highOil PriceHighMedium highLowMediumCO2 PriceNoneNoneHighLowEnvironmental RegulationRe-introduction of CAMR; existing SO2,and NOX regulations enforcedPollutants: SO2 and NOXPollutants: SO2, NOX, CO2; ACESAct 20% below 2005 by 2020Re-introduction ofCAMR; existing SO2,NOX, and regulationsenforced; CO2 tax withno capEmission CapsBase HgBase CO2 goalBase CO2Base HgNuclear New Builds7 GW APWR100 GW PBMR3 GW APWRBuild Permitted &Application PendingUnits (47 GW APWR)Renewable Generation20% by 2026Additional generation25% by 2025Meet State RPSmandates; reducedwind for reliabilityCO2 sequestrationCO2 nergy efficiencyNuclear PBMREnergy EfficiencyTechnology ImprovementsEnergy efficiencyEnergy efficiencyCoal GenerationClean coal technologiesTarget zero emission resourceTarget zero emission resourcePulverized coalReserve MarginTarget 15% reserveTarget 15% reserveTarget 15% reserveTarget 18% reserveTransmissionAdditional capacity to accommodaterenewable additionsAdditional capacity to accommodate shiftof capacity due to nuclear buildsAdditional capacity toaccommodate retirements andrenewable additionsAdditional capacity forreliability andcongestion31
Forecast SensitivitiesRelative to Base Case AssumptionsSensitivities DescriptionForecast SensitivitiesModeling InsightsExamines Timing and Portfolio Mix ChangesHigh & Low Gas Prices /- 25% Base Case ForecastHigh CO2 TaxEnergy Efficiency ProgramsHigh Customer GrowthHigh & Low Carbon Case5% by 2020, 10% by 2020, 15% by 2020High Growth Scenarios (Large Industrial and PHEV)Carbon Reduction SensitivitiesExamines Potential on CO2 Reduction StrategiesCoal RetrofitsTechnology Advances with CCSCoal Asset Sales / RetirementsHigh Carbon CostsZero – Emission Base Load OptionsNew Coal with CCS or Nuclear32
Capital AssumptionsCost of Capital, Inflation & Tax RatesTEPUNSEDebt6.38%8.08%Common Equity10.25%10.00%Debt57.50%51.15%Common Equity42.50%48.85%WACC8.03%9.02%After-Tax WACC6.57%7.38%Inflation Rate2.50%2.50%Property Taxes & Insurance1.90%2.10%Federal Tax Rate35.00%35.00%State Tax Rate7.10%7.10%Composite Rate39.60%39.60%Cost Of CapitalCompositionAverage Cost Of Capital33
Workshop 2Thursday, October 22nd 2009 Energy Efficiency and Renewables Transmission Planning Environmental StrategiesTEP and UES Resource Planning Workshop 1
TEP and UES Resource Planning Workshop 1 Capacity Planning Michael Sheehan Director, Supply-Side Planning. Capacity Planning Requirements 2-500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 (MW) Base Load Requirements Intermediate Requirements
Case Study of a TEP Member Background: D.F. had a lot of experience with the health care system as an end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patient looking for solutions. Before joining his first TEP, he had no experience with the TEP process. But he had an analytical background, knew his experience with ESRD
TES/TEP 4 Tranquility S TES/TEP/TAH/TAC S C iGate Information gateway to monitor, control and diagnose your system The Tranquility Digital Split Units are equipped with industry-first, iGate - Information Gateway - a 2-way communicating system that allows users to interact with their geothermal system in plain English AND delivers improved reliability and efficiency by precisely
(f) The rights granted to TEP in this Agreement are irrevocable during the term of this Agreement. 2. Term. (a) The term of this Agreement (the "Term") is twenty-five (25) years from the date of the Tariff change on PROPERTY OWNER's TEP account (the "Effective Date") , if not sooner terminated as set forth in this Agreement.
Transport Stock Chaser Personnel Carrier Burden Carrier BSC BUV BBC 4-wheel Cushion Walkie Reach StackerWalkie Reach Stacker 5,500lb capacity 4,500lb capacity 6,500lb capacity 6,500lb capacity 10,000lb towing capacity 4,400 - 5,500lb capacity 600lb capacity 1,000lb capacity . MAY 2014
Rough Cut Capacity Planning. Caterpillar: Confidential Green Agenda Capacity Planning Overview Intermediate Process Capacity Planning Tool Maintenance & Project Tracking Summary 2 Request Initiate Capacity Demand Cycle Time Planned Capacity Resource Chart
Transport Stock Chaser Personnel Carrier Burden Carrier BSC BUV BBC 4-wheel Cushion Tugger 5,500lb capacity 4,500lb capacity 6,500lb capacity 3,300lb capacity 3,300lb towing capacity 4,400 - 5,500lb capacity 600lb capacity 1,000lb capacity . MAY 2014 Doosan Industrial Vehicle America Corp.
Exhibit 3: PROMIS Scale v1.2 Exhibit 4: PROMIS SF v1.0 Exhibit 5: PROMIS-29 Profile v2.0 12-2 4.7a Summary of Day One Discussions . PROMIS physical functioning and other domain item banks. *Note: One TEP member was unable to attend the in-person TEP meeting.
Academic writing is iterative and incremental. That is, it is written and rewritten numerous times in a number of stages. Pre-writing: approaches for getting the ideas down The first step in writing new material is to get your ideas down without attempting to impose any order on them. This process is often called ‘free-writing’. In “timed writing” (Goldberg 1986) or “free writing .
