Democracy Index 2020 In Sickness And In Health?

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Democracy Index 2020In sickness and in health?A report by The Economist Intelligence Unitwww.eiu.com

The world leader in global business intelligenceThe Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) is the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, the sister companyto The Economist newspaper. Created in 1946, we have over 70 years’ experience in helping businesses, financial firms andgovernments to understand how the world is changing and how that creates opportunities to be seized and risks to be managed.Given that many of the issues facing the world have an international (if not global) dimension, The EIU is ideally positioned to becommentator, interpreter and forecaster on the phenomenon of globalisation as it gathers pace and impact.EIU subscription servicesThe world’s leading organisations rely on our subscription services for data, analysis and forecasts to keep them informed aboutwhat is happening around the world. We specialise in: C ountry Analysis: Access to regular, detailed country-specific economic and political forecasts, as well as assessments ofthe business and regulatory environments in different markets. R isk Analysis: Our risk services identify actual and potential threats around the world and help our clients understand theimplications for their organisations. I ndustry Analysis: Five year forecasts, analysis of key themes and news analysis for six key industries in 60 majoreconomies. These forecasts are based on the latest data and in-depth analysis of industry trends.EIU ConsultingEIU Consulting is a bespoke service designed to provide solutions specific to our customers’ needs. We specialise in these keysectors: H ealthcare: Together with our two specialised consultancies, Bazian and Clearstate, The EIU helps healthcare organisationsbuild and maintain successful and sustainable businesses across the healthcare ecosystem. Find out more at: eiu.com/healthcare P ublic Policy: Trusted by the sector’s most influential stakeholders, our global public policy practice provides evidencebased research for policy-makers and stakeholders seeking clear and measurable outcomes. Find out more at: eiu.com/publicpolicyThe Economist Corporate NetworkThe Economist Corporate Network (ECN) is The Economist Group’s advisory service for organisational leaders seeking to betterunderstand the economic and business environments of global markets. Delivering independent, thought-provoking content,ECN provides clients with the knowledge, insight, and interaction that support better-informed strategies and decisions.The Network is part of The Economist Intelligence Unit and is led by experts with in-depth understanding of the geographies andmarkets they oversee. The Network’s membership-based operations cover Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. Through adistinctive blend of interactive conferences, specially designed events, C-suite discussions, member briefings, and high-calibreresearch, The Economist Corporate Network delivers a range of macro (global, regional, national, and territorial) as well asindustry-focused analysis on prevailing conditions and forecast trends.

DEMOCRACY INDEX 2020IN SICKNESS AND IN HEALTH?ContentsList of tables and charts 2Introduction 3Democracy Index 2020 highlights 6Democracy: in sickness and in health? 14Democracy around the regions in 2020 26Asia and Australasia 28Eastern Europe 32Latin America 36Middle East and North Africa 40North America 42Sub-Saharan Africa 47Western Europe 50Appendix Defining and measuring democracy 5454Methodology 561The Economist Intelligence Unit model 59References and bibliography 69 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2021

DEMOCRACY INDEX 2020IN SICKNESS AND IN HEALTH?List of tables and chartsTable 1. Democracy Index 2020, by regime typeChart 1. Democracy Index 2020, global map by regime typeTable 2. Democracy Index 2020Chart 2. Downgrades to Q57: “Extent to which citizens enjoy personal freedoms”Chart 3. Downgrades to Q24: “Perceptions of the extent to which citizens have free choice and controlover their lives”Chart 4. Evolution of democracy by category, 2008-20Table 3. Democracy Index 2006-20Table 4. Democracy across the regionsTable 5. Democracy Index 2006-20 by regionTable 6. Asia & Australasia 2020Chart 5. Asia & Australasia: Democracy Index 2020 by categoryTable 7. Eastern Europe 2020Chart 6. Eastern Europe: Democracy Index 2020 by categoryChart 7. Latin America: Democracy Index 2020 by categoryTable 8. Latin America and the Caribbean 2020Chart 8. Middle East and North Africa: Democracy Index 2020 by categoryTable 9. Middle East and North Africa 2020Table 10. North America 2020Chart 9. US & Canada: Democracy Index 2020 by categoryChart 10. Sub-Saharan Africa: Democracy Index 2020 by categoryTable 11. Sub-Saharan Africa 2020Table 12. Western Europe 2020Chart 11. Western Europe: Democracy Index 2020 by category2 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2021

DEMOCRACY INDEX 2020IN SICKNESS AND IN HEALTH?IntroductionThe Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index provides a snapshot of the state of democracyworldwide in 165 independent states and two territories. This covers almost the entire population ofthe world and the vast majority of the world’s states (microstates are excluded). The Democracy Indexis based on five categories: electoral process and pluralism, the functioning of government, politicalparticipation, political culture, and civil liberties. Based on its scores on a range of indicators withinthese categories, each country is then itself classified as one of four types of regime: “full democracy”,“flawed democracy”, “hybrid regime” or “authoritarian regime”. A full methodology and explanationscan be found in the Appendix.This is the 13th edition of the Democracy Index, which began in 2006, and it records how globaldemocracy fared in 2020. The main focus of the report is the impact of the coronavirus (Covid-19)pandemic on democracy and freedom around the world. It looks at how the pandemic resulted inthe withdrawal of civil liberties on a massive scale and fuelled an existing trend of intolerance andcensorship of dissenting opinion (see page 14). The report also examines the state of US democracyafter a tumultuous year dominated by the coronavirus pandemic, the Black Lives Matter movementand a hotly contested presidential election (see page 42). The results by region are analysed in greaterdetail in the section entitled “Democracy around the regions in 2020” (see page 26).Table 1.Democracy Index 2020, by regime typeNo. of countries% of countries% of world populationFull democracies2313.88.4Flawed democracies5231.141.0Hybrid regimes3521.015.0Authoritarian regimes5734.135.6Note. “World” population refers to the total population of the 167 countries covered by the Index. Since this excludes only micro states, thisis nearly equal to the entire estimated world population.Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit.According to our measure of democracy, only about half (49.4%) of the world’s population live in ademocracy of some sort, and even fewer (8.4%) reside in a “full democracy”; this level is up from 5.7% in2019, as several Asian countries have been upgraded. More than one-third of the world’s population liveunder authoritarian rule, with a large share being in China.In the 2020 Democracy Index, 75 of the 167 countries and territories covered by the model, or 44.9%of the total, are considered to be democracies. The number of “full democracies” increased to 23 in2020, up from 22 in 2019. The number of “flawed democracies” fell by two, to 52. Of the remaining 92countries in our index, 57 are “authoritarian regimes”, up from 54 in 2019, and 35 are classified as “hybridregimes”, down from 37 in 2019. (For a full explanation of the index methodology and categories, seepage 56.)3 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2021

DEMOCRACY INDEX 2020IN SICKNESS AND IN HEALTH?The global average score hit an all-time lowAs recorded in the Democracy Index in recent years, democracy has not been in robust health for sometime. In 2020 its strength was further tested by the outbreak of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic.The average global score in the 2020 Democracy Index fell from 5.44 in 2019 to 5.37. This is by far theworst global score since the index was first produced in 2006. The 2020 result represents a significantdeterioration and came about largely—but not solely—because of government-imposed restrictionson individual freedoms and civil liberties that occurred across the globe in response to the coronaviruspandemic.Chart 1. Democracy Index 2020, global map by regime typeHong KongFull democracies9.0 – 10.08.0 – 9.0Flawed democracies7.0 – 8.06.0 – 7.0SingaporeHybrid regimes5.0 – 6.04.0 – 5.0Authoritarian regimes3.0 – 4.02.0 – 3.00 – 2.0No dataSource: The Economist Intelligence Unit.The deterioration in the global score in 2020 was driven by a decline in the average regional scoreeverywhere in the world, but by especially large falls in the “authoritarian regime”-dominated regionsof Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa. Their scores declined by 0.10 and 0.09,respectively, between 2019 and 2020. Western Europe and eastern Europe both recorded a fall in theiraverage regional scores of 0.06. The score for Asia and Australasia, the region which has made themost democratic progress during the lifetime of the Democracy Index, fell by 0.05. Latin America’saverage score declined by 0.04 in 2020, marking the fifth consecutive year of regression for the region.The average score for North America fell by only 0.01, but a bigger decline of 0.04 in the US score wasmasked by an improvement in Canada’s score.4 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2021

DEMOCRACY INDEX 2020IN SICKNESS AND IN HEALTH?In 2020 a large majority of countries, 116 of a total of 167 (almost 70%), recorded a decline intheir total score compared with 2019. Only 38 (22.6%) recorded an improvement and the other 13stagnated, with their scores remaining unchanged compared with 2019. There were some impressiveimprovements and some dramatic declines, as discussed in the “Highlights” section, with Taiwanregistering the biggest improvement and Mali the biggest decline. There were 11 changes of regimecategory, seven negative and four positive. Three countries ( Japan, South Korea and Taiwan) movedfrom the “flawed democracy” category to be classified as “full democracies” and one country, Albania,was upgraded to a “flawed democracy” from a “hybrid regime” previously. France and Portugalexperienced a reversal, losing the “full democracy” status they had regained in 2019, re-joining the ranksof “flawed democracies”. El Salvador and Hong Kong were relegated from the “flawed democracy”classification to that of “hybrid regime”. Further down the ranking, Algeria, Burkina Faso and Mali losttheir status as “hybrid regimes” and are now designated as “authoritarian regimes”.5 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2021

DEMOCRACY INDEX 2020IN SICKNESS AND IN HEALTH?Democracy Index 2020 highlightsPandemic dilemmas: life, death, lockdowns and libertyAcross the world in 2020, citizens experienced the biggest rollback of individual freedoms everundertaken by governments during peacetime (and perhaps even in wartime). The willing surrenderof fundamental freedoms by millions of people was perhaps one of the most remarkable occurrencesin an extraordinary year (see Democracy: in sickness and in health?, page 14 onwards). Most peopleconcluded, on the basis of the evidence about a new, deadly disease, that preventing a catastrophicloss of life justified a temporary loss of freedom. Many critics of the lockdown approach acceptedthat some form of social distancing was necessary to contain the spread of the disease, but theyfailed to put forward convincing alternatives to the policy of enforced lockdowns, and the question ofhow many deaths would be acceptable as the price of freedom was one that few lockdown scepticswere prepared to answer. That does not mean that governments and media should have censoredlockdown sceptics: attempts to curb freedom of expression are antithetical to democratic principles.The withdrawal of civil liberties, attacks on freedom of expression and the failures of democraticaccountability that occurred as a result of the pandemic are grave matters. This is why the scoresfor many questions in the civil liberties category and the functioning of government category of theDemocracy Index were downgraded across multiple countries in 2020.Asia rising: a shift eastwards in the global balance of powerThe symbolism of Asia gaining three new “full democracies” ( Japan, South Korea and Taiwan) in 2020and western Europe losing two (France and Portugal) was apt, as the novel coronavirus (Covid-19)pandemic has accelerated the shift in the global balance of power from the West to the East. Asia lagsbehind the West in democratic terms, having only five “full democracies”, compared with westernEurope’s 13, and the region also has seven “authoritarian regimes” while western Europe has none. Yetthe Asia region has, so far, handled the pandemic much better than virtually any other, with lowerinfection and mortality rates and a fast economic rebound. Having learned from the experienceof SARS, Asian governments reacted decisively (albeit deploying coercive powers in some cases),benefited from well-organised health systems and retained the confidence of their populations. Bycontrast, European governments were slow to act, some health systems came close to collapse andpublic trust in government declined. Europe’s handling of the pandemic was not a good advert fordemocracy, something that authoritarian China did not fail to point out. The pandemic has highlightedthe widening gap between a dynamic East and a declining West and is likely to further accelerate theshift in the global balance of power towards Asia.US democracy under pressure from rising polarisation and declining socialcohesionThe US’s performance across several indicators changed in 2020, both for better and worse. However,the negatives outweighed the positives, and the US retained its “flawed democracy” status (see page42). Increased political participation was the main positive: Americans have become much moreengaged in politics in recent years, and several factors fuelled the continuation of this trend in 2020,6 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2021

DEMOCRACY INDEX 2020IN SICKNESS AND IN HEALTH?including the politicisation of the coronavirus pandemic, movements to address police violence andracial injustice, and elections that attracted record voter turnout. The negatives include extremely lowlevels of trust in institutions and political parties, deep dysfunction in the functioning of government,increasing threats to freedom of expression, and a degree of societal polarisation that makes consensusalmost impossible to achieve. Social cohesion has collapsed, and consensus has evaporated onfundamental issues—even the date of the country’s founding. The new president, Joe Biden, faces ahuge challenge in bringing together a country that is deeply divided over core values.Taiwan: the year’s biggest winnerThe star-performer in this year’s Democracy Index, measured by the change in both its score andrank, is Taiwan, which was upgraded from a “flawed democracy” to a “full democracy”, after rising 20places in the global ranking from 31st place to 11th (see box on page 32). In a year notable for havingfew winners, Taiwan’s performance was spectacular. The country’s score rose by more than anyother country in the 2020 index. Taiwan went to the polls in January 2020, and the national electionsdemonstrated the resilience of its democracy at a time when electoral processes, parliamentaryoversight and civil liberties have been backsliding globally. There was a strong voter turnout,including among the younger generation, to elect the president and members of the LegislativeYuan (parliament). Overall, the country seems to have concluded that a well-functioning democracyrepresents the best means of safeguarding its future.Mali and Togo the big losers in a dire year for African democracyMeasured by the decline in its score, Mali, in west Africa, was the worst-performing country in the 2020Democracy Index, being downgraded from a “hybrid regime” to an “authoritarian regime”. Mali does nothave full control over its territory, and rampant insecurity precipitated a coup in August 2020 by militaryofficers aggrieved by a lack of progress against jihadist insurgents. A military junta has since establisheda transitional government, nullifying the outcome of parliamentary elections held in March 2020, whichwere broadly free and fair. Because of this, Mali has dropped 11 places globally, the second-biggest fallin rank in Sub-Saharan Africa behind Togo, which fell 15 places, further down the ranks of “authoritarianregimes”. Overall it was a terrible year for democracy in Sub-Saharan Africa, where 31 countries weredowngraded, eight stagnated and only five improved their scores (see page 47). Burkina Faso, which,like Mali, faces a jihadist insurgency and does not have full control of its territory, was also downgradedfrom a “hybrid regime” to an “authoritarian regime”.Western Europe loses two “full democracies”In 2020 two west European countries—France and Portugal—moved from the “full democracy”category to the “flawed democracy” one (see page 50). Thirteen countries in the region are now classedas “full democracies” (down from 15 in 2019) and seven as “flawed democracies”, up from five in 2019.Only three countries improved their scores in 2020 (Italy, Turkey and the UK) and 18 recorded a decline.The most significant downwards score changes were in the category of civil liberties, for which theaggregate score fell sharply, and in the functioning of government category. No country recorded anincrease in its overall civil liberties score, as lockdown and social-distancing measures used to combatthe coronavirus pandemic curtailed individual freedoms. Nevertheless, countries in western Europeaccount for seven of the top ten places in the global democracy rankings, including the top three spots,7 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2021

DEMOCRACY INDEX 2020IN SICKNESS AND IN HEALTH?occupied by Norway, Iceland and Sweden. The Nordics are kings of the rankings, with Finland andDenmark sitting in sixth and seventh place.A tale of two regions: democratic backsliding continues under cover ofCovid-19 in eastern Europe and Latin AmericaIt is hard to say whether the recent democratic backsliding recorded in eastern Europe and LatinAmerica would have continued without the coronavirus pandemic. What is certain is that the publichealth emergency provided cover for abuses of power that have become familiar in recent years.These two regions contain only three “full democracies” (all in Latin America), but they share half theworld’s flawed democracies (26 out of 52). Eastern Europe has always lagged behind Latin America inthe Democracy Index, but both regions suffer from similar flaws. A weak political culture, difficulties increating institutions aimed at safeguarding the rule of law and persistent issues with corruption createa difficult habitat for democracy. The deterioration in both regions in 2020 revealed the fragility ofdemocracy in times of crisis and the willingness of governments to sacrifice civil liberties and exerciseunchecked authority in an emergency situation.The Middle East and North Africa retains the lowest scoreAfter Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa region recorded the second-biggestreduction in regional average score in 2020 (see page 40), mainly because of the impact of coronavirusrelated restrictions on civil liberties. That score has declined every year since 2012, when the advancesthat followed the onset of the pro-democracy “Arab Spring” uprising in December

democracy of some sort, and even fewer (8.4%) reside in a “full democracy”; this level is up from 5.7% in . Pandemic dilemmas: life, death, lockdowns and liberty Across the world in 2020, citizens experienced the biggest rollback of individual freedoms ever

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