U.S. Hydrogen Roadmap Study
US Hydrogen roadmap studyHTAC Meeting updatePREREADDecember 2018
PREREADObjectives today Alignment on context, objectives and end products of USHydrogen Roadmap Alignment on study approach and existing perspectives onenergy futures and hydrogen in the US as foundation for theroadmap Definition of study setup, timeline and key milestonesDefining next steps including data request procedure, contractand logistics2
PREREADContentsContext, objectives and end productsStudy approach and existing perspectiveon energy futures and hydrogen in the USStudy setup, timeline and key milestonesNext steps3
CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVESPREREADOur understanding: The objective of the project is to develop acomprehensive hydrogen roadmap for the United StatesContext Hydrogen and fuel cell technologieshave reached technical maturity inmany application areas, but are facingintroduction barriers, e.g., lack ofinfrastructure, transparency on specificneeds and available technical solutionsThe US is a leading player inhydrogen technology through its largeRD&D program led by the FCTO at theDoE, the leading role of California as amarket for hydrogen mobility and thestrength of US industry in hydrogenand fuel cellsObjectives1 Set the ambition level: Quantify the roleplayed by the Hydrogen in the US energysystem of 2050 in each sector and sub-sector2 Develop a roadmap: Develop an adequateramp-up including milestones for 2020, 2025and 2030, taking into account inter-sectoralsynergies3 Estimate the impact: Quantify theenvironmental/climate, macro-economic andsocial benefits resulting from this roadmapThe next frontier for hydrogen is todemonstrate the potential ofhydrogen for the US consumer, energysystem and industry as a basis forbuilding a deployment roadmapSOURCE: McKinsey4
WORK PACKAGESPREREADWe propose to structure our support around 3 work packagesWork packageDescription1 Analyze US energy, economic and climate objectives at federal andAmbition levelfor 2050 2Roadmap Describe the status of the US hydrogen industry today Develop ramp-up curves for each sector until 2050, taking into account 3Impactstate level, including a projection of the energy system in 2050Analyze existing work on hydrogen and energy futures in the US, andselect areas for roadmap to build uponJointly develop the aspiration for the Hydrogen roadmap, incl. areas tofocus on in particularJointly define the ambition level for hydrogen deployment in the UScontext (existing plans, energy prices etc.)industrial constraints, cost trajectories and global spillover effectsEstimate milestones for 2025 and 2030 for each sector Estimate the impact of the hydrogen roadmap on the US consumerand economy:– Macro-economic benefits, e.g., growth, trade balance, energyindependence– Social benefits, e.g. jobs, competencies– Environmental benefits, e.g. pollution emissions decrease5
WORK PACKAGESPREREADWe base our approach for the US on lessons learned in othernational roadmapLessons learned in the European, French and Korean hydrogen roadmaps Drivers of hydrogen adoption and approaches to scaling up the hydrogenDifferences indrivers andapproachesDifferences inindustrydevelopmentsIndustrycoalitioneconomy differ strongly by country and have major implications on results– E.g., hydrogen imports and power generation in Korea due to constraints onrenewables– E.g., fuel cell buses and vans in Europe due to pollution limits and driving bans incities The development of national industry across the value chain differs strongly bycountry, impacting national capabilities and priorities– E.g., current focus on BEVs by French OEMs– E.g., existing national roadmap in Korea Members of the industry coalition differ strongly in their pre-existing knowledge andin their focus areas– E.g., companies investing in SMR vs. electrolysis Alignment and persuasion of external stakeholders are most successful whenExternalstakeholdersinvolved early in the process– E.g., city/state governments– E.g., SMEs6
WORK PACKAGESPREREADSuccess factors for the USLessons learned in the European, French and Korean hydrogen roadmapsDifferences indrivers andapproachesDifferences inindustrydevelopmentsIndustrycoalition Jointly decide on focus areas and aspired impact for the roadmap Focus on stringent arguments for hydrogen, rather than a quantitative modelling of all segments in detailConsider US specifics from day 0 (e.g., lower importance of CO2 abatment) Invest time upfront to jointly build "foundation" for the study before launching detailed analysis work; review existing US studiesConsider US-specifics in approach Create common understanding of H2 (supply, applications, technology ) Align objectives, scope and approach in joint aspiration workshop in January Identify and involve outside stakeholders in the process (e.g., invitations toExternalstakeholdersgovernment representatives, survey among SMEs)7
END PRODUCTPREREADWe propose a 15-page visualization of the roadmap and a 40-page reportoutlining the key results of the study as end productsRoadmap presentationRoadmap memo 15 slides visualizationof the most importantresults of the roadmap: 2050 ambition Roadmap ImpactTargeted to be usedfor communication tokey decision makersand to the publicIn format similar toHydrogen CouncilRoadmap 40 pageswritten reportIncludes key resultsof study andselectedvisualizationsTargeted to be usedfor communicationto policymakers andpublic8
END PRODUCTPREREADExample output: Macro-economic impact and social benefits ofthe hydrogen vision for Korea2050 hydrogen vision, in approximate annual figures20 %17 %KRW 70 trnOf final energydemand1Of required CO2abatement2Sales(hydrogen andequipment)1 Excluding feedstock hydrogen use30 %600 KReduction of localemissions (NOx,PM10)jobs in H2production,distribution and enduse applications2 Compared to the business-as-usual scenarioSOURCE: Hydrogen Coalition Members' Study; Hydrogen Korea Study team9
END PRODUCTPREREADExample output: Milestones in hydrogen scale-up in thehydrogen roadmap for Europe2030 and 2040 hydrogen milestones, in approximate annual figures20304572040One in.125 light commercial vehicles sold are FCEVs .and one in.227 passenger vehicles sold are FCEVs.There are.45.and 570'000450'0002,000.of diesel trains replaced with hydrogen.There are 7%32%.equivalent to.30TWh120TWh.meaning.2mThe deployment of.250'000There is.33%SOURCE: Hydrogen Coalition Members' Study; Hydrogen Europe Study team112,56063 trucks and buses on the road. of natural gas (by volume) replaced by hydrogenm households are heated.'000 fuel cell CHPs increases energy efficiency.% carbon-free hydrogen production in allapplications.10
PREREADContentsContext, objectives and end productsStudy approach and existing perspectiveon energy futures and hydrogen in the USStudy setup, timeline and key milestonesNext steps11
APPROACH AND MILESTONESPREREADOverview of approach to building the Hydrogen Roadmap USInputs per scenarioRoadmap modelling External/published data Energy system baseline andforecasts (energy demand,production mix, power prices) US Hydrogen industrylandscape Environmental performancedata and economic multipliers Hydrogen Council data,validated by coalition members Hydrogen adoption rates Cost data (capex and opex)Outputs/key analysis per scenarioPotential ofhydrogen perapplicationAnnual hydrogendemandA Quantify the vision for 2050B Define starting pointC Build roadmapD Estimate milestones2030 and 2050Impact ofmilestones of US hydrogen roadmaphydrogen roadmapfor the USFor discussion: What are the best existing studies and perspective on energy futures which we should use as foundation?SOURCE: McKinsey12
PREREADContentsContext, objectives and end productsStudy approach and existing perspectiveon energy futures and hydrogen in the USStudy setup, timeline and key milestonesNext steps13
TIMELINEPREREADMeetingWe propose an approach of 4 months to develop the roadmap in acoalition with industry and public stakeholdersDec/JanFebStocktaking andpreparationMid DecMilestonesIntro /Kick offKeyactivities Draft ofroadmapMid JanAspirationworkshopEarly Feb Review andfeedbackMid FebDataset Feedback onfor review datasetStocktaking of currentactivities, programsand US hydrogenindustry landscapeAssemble industryand publicstakeholder coalitionDevelop and discuss“day 1 hypothesis” onall work packagesAlign on detailedscope and approach;as well as structure ofdata requestMarEarly MarDevelop energybaseline andprojectionstowards 2050Provide feedbackon datasetAnalyzefeedback, deriveadoptionscenarios andbuild first draft ofroadmapIdentify areas forfurther detailing ofroadmap Review first draftof roadmap andprovide feedbackClarify questions,incorporatefeedback andalign memberstowards jointperspectiveApr/MayRefinement ofroadmapMid MarDraft roadmap Feedbackworkshopon roadmap Call/MailPublicationLate MarRevised roadmapworkshopIncorporatefeedback andrefine roadmap(WP1, WP2)Estimate impact(WP3)Synthesis of allresults intocommunicationpackage Late AprSign-offFinalcomm.packageReview of andalignment onroadmappresentationWrite, edit,review and finetune reportFinalizecommunicationpackage1 Prices quoted in EUR, free of all duties, taxes and other charges, including VAT. Prices quoted are fixed amounts including all charges (including travel and subsistence).14
ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIESPREREADBASIS FOR DISCUSSIONRoles and responsibilities of Steering group and Study p Small set of companies Actively Weekly callsStudyGroup All coalition memberssteering theproject withhigh level ofcommitmentacross theproject Guiding theproject withexpertise,focusing oncore areas ofeach partnerContribution Very active involvement inthe project and weeklyproject calls; providinginput data; reviewingworkshop material andtaking prepared leadingrolls in workshops;reviewing interim projectresults; providingfeedback and guidance Workshops Providing input data;providing feedback on theoutputs, activeparticipation inworkshops and participatein discussions15
PREREADContentsContext, objectives and end productsStudy approach and existing perspectiveon energy futures and hydrogen in the USStudy setup, timeline and key milestonesNext steps16
NEXT STEPSPREREADOpen questions and next stepsCoalitionmembers Participating companies? Who will represent the companies? We would recommend each memberto nominate 1-2 project contacts for participation in meetings and asexperts during data alignment ekickoffNextstepsAfterkickoff Where should meetings take place? Who will participate in key meetings and who will send out invitations? When should the aspiration workshop with the full group take place? What is the preferred location? Contract closure and signing between FCHEA and McKinsey Signing of NDA with coalition members and FCHEA Assemble participating companies and their contactsSend out invitations for all workshopsGather/share existing perspectives on energy and hydrogen in the USPrepare kickoff meeting Circulate assumption data set / survey for validation and input from UScompanies17
We propose a 15-page visualization of the roadmap and a 40-page report outlining the key results of the study as end products END PRODUCT Roadmap presentation 15 slides visualization of the most important results of the roadmap: 2050 ambition Roadmap Impact Targeted to be used f
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