Ch 9 - Performing Financial Analyses

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Ch 9 - Performing Financial Analyses 9.0 - Chapter Introduction9.1 - Identifying Sources Of Financial Information9.2 - Identifying Key Financial Indicators9.3 - Applying Financial Indicators To ResponsibilityDecisions9.4 - Applying Financial Indicators To ContractFinancing Decisionso 9.4.1 - Commercial-Item Financingo 9.4.2 - Noncommercial-Item Financing9.5 - Applying Financial Indicators To PerformanceBond Decisions9.6 - Applying Financial Indicators To ProgressPayment Administrationo 9.6.1 - Government Rights In AdjustmentSituationso 9.6.2 - Adjustment For Loss Contractso 9.6.3 - Liquidation Rate Adjustment9.7 - Applying Financial Indicators To SubordinationAgreement Need Decisions9.0 Chapter IntroductionThis chapter examines the application of financialanalysis to contracting decisions.Government Financial Analysis (FAR 9.104-1, 28.103-2(3),and 32.006-4(d)(3)). In Government contracting, financialanalysis involves analysis of the: Financial capability of potential contractors.Decisions on contractor responsibility must considerwhether the offeror has adequate financial resourcesor the ability to obtain them.Effect that Government financing decisions will haveon contractor financial management. Decisions onGovernment financing and progress payments mustconsider the contractor's financial condition.Need for Government protection from performanceproblems that may result from contractor financialproblems. Decisions on whether to require performancebonds for contracts other than construction orsubordination agreements should consider the financialrisk associated with Government progress payments.

Analysis Responsibility. Whether you must perform theanalysis yourself or interpret the analysis of specialists(e.g., auditors, financial analysts, price/cost analysis),you must understand the basic concepts of financialanalysis. Financial analysis typically providesinformation, not clear-cut answers. To do your jobeffectively, you must be able to ask the right questionsand make the right decision. If challenged by thecontractor or others involved in the acquisition process,you must be able to defend that decision. Keep in mind yourobjective when performing financial analysis is todetermine whether weak finances will inhibit contractperformance.Relationship Between Assets, Liabilities, and Owner'sEquity. To effectively perform a financial analysis, youmust understand the relationship between assets,liabilities, and owner's equity. Assets are the economicresources of the firm which are capable of giving servicebenefits to future operations which can be measuredobjectively in monetary terms. The sources of these assetsare the liabilities of the firm and owner's equity.Assets Liabilities Owner's EquityLiabilities are the claims by parties outside the firmagainst the assets of the firm. Owner's equity is theowner's (sole proprietor's, partners', or stockholders')financial claim against the assets of the firm.For example: Two people each invest 10,000 in a businesspartnership. At that point in time, the firm's assets are 20,000; liabilities are zero; and owner's equity is 20,000. The next day they borrow 5,000 and purchase newequipment for 25,000. Now, the firm's assets are 25,000;liabilities are 5,000; and owner's equity is 20,000. Notethat the firm's assets always equal the firm's liabilitiesplus owner's equity.Tangible and Intangible Assets. Assets are the economicresources that are either tangible or intangible: Tangible Assets. Most assets are tangible -- theirvalue comes from the use of their physical substance.Examples include: land, buildings, and equipment.Intangible Assets. Other assets are intangible-theirvalue comes from a legal claim or excess earning power

caused by a business transaction (e.g., goodwill,patents, or trademarks).Current and Long-Term Assets. For financial analysis,assets are most often classified as current or long-term: Current Assets. These are assets that can be convertedinto cash within one year. They include:o Cash in the bank and on hand. However, onlyunrestricted cash that is freely available forwithdrawal to meet company liabilities shall beclassified as a current asset.o Marketable securities listed for trade through alicensed brokerage firm. They may include U.S.Government obligations, State and Municipalobligations, Corporate Securities, and MoneyMarket Instruments.o Accounts receivable from sales made and billed tocustomers on credit terms. Only customer accountsreceivable arising from the sale of companyproducts shall be classified as a current asset.o Inventory that is good and salable.o A merchandising company typically only has oneclass of inventory, items purchased fromsuppliers that are awaiting resale.o Service companies also typically have one classof inventory, production supplies.o Manufacturers typically show three differentclasses of inventory: raw materials, work-inprocess, and finished goods.o Other Current Assets, which typically includeprepaid insurance, taxes, rent, and interest.Normally, this category is not large in relationto other balance sheet items.Long-Term Assets. These are items that a businesscannot easily turn into cash and are not consumedwithin one year. They include:o Fixed assets, the materials, goods, services, andland used in production.o Examples include: real estate, buildings, plantequipment, tools and machinery, furniture,fixtures, office or store equipment, andtransportation equipment.o The book value of all fixed assets, except forland, is depreciated (reduced) annually toconsider the reduction in value over the asset'suseful life.

ooooooooOther long-term assets, including:Marketable securities not listed for tradethrough a licensed brokerage firm.Land, equipment, or buildings not used to producecustomer goods or services.Investment in subsidiary companies.Intangible assets or assets usually not availablefor payment of the debts of a going concern(e.g., goodwill, patents, copyrights, mailinglists, catalogues, trademarks, organizationexpense, drawings, dies, cuts, patterns, andstock expenses)Amounts due from officers or stockholders.Mortgages and real estate contracts held by thecontractor.Claims and miscellaneous accounts.Current and Long-Term Liabilities. Most liabilitiesrequire the payment of a specific sum of money to aparticular party at a specified time in the future.However, some liabilities may be indefinite; the debt maybe settled by some means other than the payment of money;the creditor may not be known; or the due date may beuncertain. Current Liabilities. Current liabilities areobligations that a business must pay within a year.Generally, they are obligations that are due by aspecific date (usually within 30 to 90 days). However,trade practices may permit the exclusion of certainaccounts such as customer's deposits and deferredincome, provided the firm's records include anappropriate explanation. Current liabilities include:o Notes payable, including notes payable to banks,notes payable to officers or stockholders ofaffiliated companies, notes payable to the trade,and notes payable to others.o Accounts payable for merchandise or materialrequirements purchased on credit terms and notpaid.o Accrued expenses including: reserve for taxes;amounts due officers, stockholders, etc.; amountsdue affiliated companies; dividends unpaid; andfunded current debt.o Currently due portion of long-term liabilities.Long -Term Liabilities. Long-term liabilities areliabilities that will mature in excess of one year

from the balance sheet date. Normally, items in thisarea are retired in annual installments. Long-termliabilities include:o Funded debt including serial bonds; notes onmortgage installments, mortgages; and otherfunded debts due after one year. This is the mostcommon type of long-term debt.o Miscellaneous deferred liabilities including suchaccounts as reserves for insurance and reservesfor contingencies.o Deferred credit such as unearned income carriedas a liability until the related product iscompleted and delivered.Owners' Equity. Owners' equity is often referred to as networth, because it is the net difference between the totalassets and the total liabilities of the firm. It representsthe owners' claims against the assets of the firm, but itis not a claim against a specific asset (e.g., cash). Thereare two sources: Owner's Contribution. These contributions, sometimesreferred to as capital stock, include cash or otherassets.Retained Earnings. These are the accumulated profitsin excess of losses and payments to the owners.Earnings are retained by the firm to financeoperations and growth.9.1 Identifying Sources Of Financial InformationAnalysis Comparisons. Analysis of the financial strengthof a particular firm always involves comparison. Comparisons To Consider. The most common arecomparisons with the:o Same company over time to identify trends infinancial capability. Normally, you shouldconsider trends in a firm's financialcapabilities over a period of at least threeyears.o Industry to see how the firm compares withindustry averages.Comparisons Not To Consider. Do not make comparisonsbetween:

Individual companies.Two firms being compared may both be financiallyunsound. In that case, you might judge them to beequally sound and capable of performing thecontract. Instead, neither should be consideredfor award.o One of the firms being compared may the strongestfirm in industry. A second firm might look poorby comparison but still be one of the soundestfirms in the industry.o A company and averages for firms in a differentindustry or averages for all firms in allindustries. Different industries requiredifferent financial structures. For example, youwould not expect an engineering services firm tohave the investment and assets required of a firminvolved in the manufacture of heavy equipment.ooSources of Data on Individual Firms. To perform afinancial analysis, you must obtain financial dataconcerning the firm under analysis. Key sources ofinformation include: The Firm. The firm that you are about to analyzeshould be your primary source of information.o Publicly traded corporations must prepare annualreports. These reports include several items ofinformation that will be useful in performing afinancial analysis:o Balance sheets that identify major categories ofassets, liabilities, and owner's equity.o Profit and loss statements for the fiscal year.o Other information concerning problems encounteredduring the just-completed fiscal year and plansfor the future.o Sole proprietorships and partnerships are notrequired to prepare annual reports. Normally, youshould require these firms to submit balancesheets and profit and loss statements certifiedby a Certified Public Accountant. Because theseentities are not legally separate from the ownersof the firm, these documents will includepersonal as well as business assets.Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reports.These reports include:o A complete description of all business lines,

Description of any significant developments inthe corporation that could impact earning,o List of major debt holders and when debt is due,o Executive compensation, ando A statement from the firm's public accounts onreliability of the information provided.Financial Publications. There are many excellentpublications that can provide you with a range ofinformation about specific firms. These include:o Moody's Investor Services, a Dun & Bradstreetsubsidiary, publishes financial data for a widevariety of companies:o Industrial Manual-provides information on allcorporations listed on the New York StockExchange plus over 500 corporations listed onregional exchanges.o OTC Manual-provides information on over 3,200companies traded over-the-counter.o Transportation Manual-provides information on allUS. companies in every phase of transportation.o OTC Unlisted Manual-provides information on 2,000companies classified as unlisted OTC companies.o International Manual-provides information on over5,000 international companies.o Reference Book of Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.provides a quarterly report on the estimatedfinancial strength and the "composite creditappraisal" of companies in the United States. Itsinformation is arranged by cities.o Federal Reserve Bank Credit Reports. Contractorswho apply for guaranteed loans on Governmentcontracts submit to a thorough creditinvestigation by the Federal Reserve Bank. Thereports of these investigations are available tothe contracting officer.o Macmillan Directory Division publishesinformation on both domestic and internationalcompanies.o Directory of Leading Private Companies-providesreports on 7,000 companies.o International Directory of CorporateAffiliations-provides reports on 1,550 foreigncorporations, their 40,000 United States andforeign holdings, 1,550 US corporations and their14,000 overseas affiliates.o Securities and Exchange Commission (US GovernmentPrinting Office, Washington, DC) annuallyo

publishes a directory of companies required tofile Annual Reports with the Securities andExchange Commission.o Standard and Poor (McGraw-Hill subsidiary) Corporate Records-provides information onover 12,000 corporations. Stock Reports-provides information on over4,000 corporations.o Thomas Register, Company Profiles (Volumes 17 and18) defines the range of company tangible assetvalue. For example, a company with tangibleassets of 30 mil would be assigned to the rangeof over 25 million but not over 50 million.o The Value Line Investment Survey-provides aloose-leaf analysis of approximately 1,700companies. It contains historical data onearnings, dividends, sales, working capital, andappraisals of the future prospects for thecompany. Although mainly a manual for investors,it includes valuable general information forfinancial analysis.Financial Services. There are many excellent servicesthat can provide you with a range of information aboutspecific firms. Dun and Bradstreet -- one of the mostpopular -- provides individual reports on currentdevelopments concerning size, credit, etc., for manyUnited States and Canadian companies.Sources of Data on Specific Industries. To determine howthe firm that you are analyzing compares with industryaverages, you must also have information on differentindustries. Key sources of information include: Dun & Bradstreet provides information on majorindustries in three different formats:o Industry Norms and Key Business Ratios, ThreeYear Edition-provides industry information forthe most recently completed 3-year period.Available in directory and diskette versions.o Industry Norms and Key Business Ratios, One YearEdition-provides industry information for themost recently completed year. Available indirectory and diskette versions.o Key Business Ratios, One Year Edition-providesratios only for the most recently completed year.Available in directory versions only.

Robert Morris Associates Annual Statement Studiesprovides composite financial data on manufacturing,wholesaling, retailing, service, and contracting linesof business. Financial statement on each industry areshown in common size form, and are accompanied bywidely used ratios.Almanac of Business and Industrial Financial Ratios.Published annually by Prentice Hall, this bookprovides industry financial information and ratios.9.2 Identifying Key Financial IndicatorsFinancial Ratios. Most financial analysis involves the useof ratios. There are numerous ratios that you can calculateto support financial analysis. You should determine whichratios provide you with the type of information that youneed to support your analysis. This section examines commonexamples of four types of ratios: short-term solvencyratios; long-term solvency ratios; efficiency ratios; andprofitability ratios. In addition, this section alsodelineates a model that combines the results of severalratios to predict bankruptcy.Use Caution in Financial Analysis.financial analysis: Use caution inChanges in accounting practices may make it difficultto compare financial ratios calculated in differenttime periods. For example, if material costs areincreasing, a change from first-in-first-out (FIFO) tolast-in-first-out (LIFO) inventory accounting couldsubstantially decrease inventory value with no changein the actual units in inventory. That will affectevery ratio that includes inventory value. One sourceof information about accounting system changes is thecorporate financial report. Another is the cognizantGovernment auditor.Financial statements represent only one source offinancial information concerning a firm and itsenvironment. Other information (i.e. changes in costsor market demand) not disclosed in financialstatements may have an impact on the evaluation offinancial capabilities.Most financial statements are not adjusted either forchanges in market values or in the general price

level. This may seriously affect comparability betweenfirms and industry averages.As ratio analysis has increased in popularity, therehas sometimes been a tendency to develop ratios whichhave little or no significance. A meaningful ratio canbe developed only from items which have a logicalrelationship.Short-Term Solvency Ratios (FAR 9.106-4(a) and 53.3011407). In most financial analyses, you will primarily beconcerned with the contractor's ability to meet its currentobligations, because most contracts take less than one yearto complete. Solvency, or liquidity, ratios provide youwith measures of the contractor's ability to meet currentobligations. Any preaward survey of an offeror's financialcapability should consider both the acid test ratio and thecurrent assets to current liabilities ratio in everyanalysis of contractor financial responsibility. Acid Test Ratio. Also known as the quick ratio, thisratio is used to determine how well the firm's currentliabilities can be satisfied by the firm's currentassets less inventory.A high ratio in comparison with industry averages indicatesa greater ability to satisfy current liabilities. However,too high a ratio may signify management inefficiency,because too large a share of the firm's assets is beingheld as nonproductive assets. Current Assets to Current Liabilities Ratio. Alsoknown as the current ratio, this is the ratio ofcurrent assets to current liabilities. Normally, thebiggest difference between this ratio and the acidtest ratio is the addition of the value of inventoriesto the numerator.As with the acid test ratio, a high current ratio incomparison with other firms in the industry indicates agreater ability to satisfy current liabilities. However, aratio that is too high may signify management inefficiency,

because too large a proportion of the firm's assets isbeing held as nonproductive assets. Also, be careful wheninventory is a large portion of current assets. Values maybe inflated by obsolete inventory that has a high bookvalue, but no value in the marketplace.Long-Term Solvency Ratios (FAR 9.106-4(a) and 53.3011407). A firm with long-term solvency problems, may findit difficult to obtain financing for short-term operations.Long-term solvency is particularly important for contractsand programs extending beyond one year.Long-term solvency ratios, also known as leverageratios, measure the firm's long-term capability to meet itsfinancial obligations. Consider the Total Liabilities toNet Worth Ratio in every preaward survey of contractorfinancial responsibility. You may also wish to consider theDebt Ratio. Total Liabilities to Net Worth Ratio. Also known asthe Debt to Equity Ratio, this ratio measures therelative shares of debt and owner's equity used tofinance the operations of the firm. Depending on thesource, you may find this ratio expressed either as adecimal or a percentage.Or written another way:A ratio that is lower than industry averages indicates arelatively lower reliance on debt as a source of funds.This would normally place the firm in a relativelyfavorable position to borrow money. However, a higher ratiomay be desirable at times, especially when a firm isexpanding operations. Expanding operations might requireincreased production and expanded inventories. Debt may bethe best source of funds. As operations stabilize at thehigher level, cash flow should improve -- permittingreduced reliance on debt as a source of funds. Debt Ratio. This ratio measures the percentage oftotal assets supplied by creditors.

This ratio is a different way of looking at the same factsconsidered in the Total Liabilities to Net Worth Ratio. ADebt ratio of .50 would mean that half the funds requiredto finance total assets came from debt. A Total Liabilitiesto Net Worth Ratio of 1.00 would have the same meaning. ADebt Ratio that is low when compared to other firms in theindustry indicates that the firm has less reliance on debtas a source of funds. That also indicates lower risk andgreater financial stability.Efficiency Ratios. Efficiency or operating ratios aremeasures of the firm's intensity of asset use. Theprinciple efficiency ratios are measures of asset turnover,the average length of time required for assets to beconsumed or replaced. The ratios provide measures on thelength of time required to turn various assets into cash.The less time required, the more efficiently the firm isoperating. Higher efficiency normally indicates higherprofitability. High efficiency also indicates it is betterable to turn its assets into cash to meet currentliabilities.Contractor trends over time are particularly important.A contractor that is becoming less efficient in using itsassets will likely face declining profits and an increasingreliance on borrowing as a source of funds. Decliningratios may also indicate that the contractor is notreacting to a changing market place (e.g., a failure toreduce inventories even though sales are declining). Inventory Turnover Ratio. This ratio provides anindication of the time required to turn inventoriesinto cash.A ratio that is lower than the industry average mayindicate that too much cash has been invested in inventory.Excessive inventories tie up funds that could be usedelsewhere in operations. They also increase operating costsassociated with holding inventory. A ratio that is higherthan other firms in the industry may indicate that the firmhas insufficient inventories to meet demand. However, it

may also indicate that the firm has developed moreefficient inventory management methods. Sales to Assets Ratio. This ratio, also known as theasset turnover ratio, measures the intensity withwhich assets are used to produce sales revenues.Average total assets are calculated by adding beginningtotal assets plus ending total assets and dividing the sumby two. The higher the ratio the more sales dollars areproduced by each asset dollar and the more efficiently thefirm is operating.Profitability Ratios. Profitability ratios examinemanagement's overall effectiveness in earning profits.Profitable companies are generating additional funds thatcan be used to finance company operations.Gross profit is the difference between net sales andthe cost of sales, which is the sum of the expensesrequired to manufacture, purchase, or service customers.Net profit is gross profit less all expenses directlyrelated to the firm's operations, including income taxes.Net profit after taxes is the basic measure of a firm'soperating success. It is net profit that is added toretained earnings or distributed to shareholders asdividends. When a loss occurs (a negative net profit), theloss is charged against net worth as a reduction to theequity account. Gross Profit on Net Sales Ratio. This ratio, alsoknown as the gross margin ratio, calculates theaverage profit margin on sales. It can help identifytrends in a firm's credit policy, purchasing, andgeneral merchandising.It may vary widely among firms in the same industry,according to sales, location, size, and competition. Firmswith a higher ratio are generally more attractive topotential creditors and investors.

Rate of Return. This ratio quantifies the company'sreturn on investment.This ratio is commonly used to compare both companies andpotential investments within a single company. A higherratio indicates a relatively more profitable use of assets.Failure Prediction Model (DCAM 14-304a). In addition toyour analysis of the ratios delineated above, you shouldconsider the failure prediction model developed by EdwardI. Altman. This model employs the sum of five weightedfinancial ratios to calculate a Z-Score which is used topredict the possibility of future bankruptcy and indicatethe need for further analysis. Although, you should notrely exclusively on the Z-Score to form an opinion aboutcontractor financial capability, it does provide an initialalert of financial problems. Ratios Used In Z-Score Calculation. The ratios used inZ-Score calculation provide a broad view of the firm'sfinancial health.Net working capital is current assets less currentliabilities. This ratio measures a firm's ability to payoff its short-term liabilities.This ratio measures a firm's use of its total asset base togenerate earnings. However, manipulated retained earningsdata can distort the numerical results.The earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) to totalassets ratio, or the rate of return on assets, measures theproductivity of a firm's assets.

This is the inverse of the Debt to Equity ratio. It showsthe amount a firm's assets can decline in value beforeliabilities exceed assets.This ratio is a measure of the firm's ability to generatesales. Weights Assigned Each Ratio In Z-Score Calculation.Because of differences in financing and other factors,the weight assigned each ratio in Z-Score calculationshould vary based on the type of firm under analysis.DCAA-recommended weights are presented in thefollowing table:RatioARatio Weights For Z-Score CalculationPublicly TradedPrivately HeldOther 1.4.8473.26C3.33.1076.72D.6.4201.05E1.01.000N/A Z-Score Analysis. Examine the current Z-Score, changesover time (3 to 5 completed fiscal years), and otheravailable information to develop Z-Score projectionsfor the contract period. Use the following table tointerpret historical and projected Z-Scores:Prediction Based On Z-ScoreIf the Z-Score is .Then there is.3.00 or moreLittle chance ofbankruptcy.1.81 to 2.99Some chance of bankruptcy.

1.80 or less Large chance of bankruptcy.Z-Score Data From DCAA. For many publicly heldcorporations, the DCAA Technical Audit Services Center(OTS), Special Programs Branch can provide Z-Scoreinformation for recently completed and prior fiscalyears (usually up to five years). The Z-Scores arecalculated using financial data provided by Standardand Poor's Compustat Services, Inc. DCAA will provideZ-Scores for both the company under review and theaverage of companies in the related industry.9.3 Applying Financial Indicators To ResponsibilityDecisionsResponsibility Standard (FAR 9.104-1 and 9.105-1). Thegeneral FAR standards for contractor responsibility,include the requirement that the prospective contractorhave adequate financial resources to perform the contractor the ability to obtain them.Before making a determination of offerorresponsibility, you must possess or obtain informationsufficient to satisfy you that the prospective contractormeets this standard and the other FAR standards forcontractor responsibility. Normally, the contracting officer must obtain thisinformation, including preaward surveys, promptlyafter bid opening or receipt of offers. Limit requestsfor information to the low bidder or those offerors inrange for award.However, in negotiated contracting (especially whenresearch and development is involved), the contractingofficer may obtain this information prior to issuingthe request for proposals.Preaward Survey (FAR 9.106-1(a)). Generally, you shouldobtain a preaward survey, including analysis of financialcapability, when the information on hand or readilyavailable is not sufficient for making a determinationregarding responsibility. However, unless circumstancesjustify its cost, you should not request a preaward surveyfor:

Fixed-price contracts at or below the simplifiedacquisition threshold, orContracts involving the acquisition of commercialitems.Contract Financing (FAR 32.107). If the contractor orofferor meets the standards prescribed for a responsibleprospective contractor, do not treat the contractor's needfor contract financing as a handicap for a contract award(e.g., a responsibility factor or an evaluation criterion).Do not disqualify a contractor from contract financingbecause the contractor failed to indicate a need forcontract financing before the contract was awarded.Financial Capability Requirements (FAR 53.301-1407). TheStandard Form (SF) 1407, Preaward Survey of ProspectiveContractor Financial Capability, provides insight into someof the areas that you should consider in evaluating afirm's financial capability. Current financial position from the latest balancesheet.Current assets to current liabilities ratio.Acid test ratio.Total liabilities to net worth ratio.Current and projected sales.Latest profit and loss statement.Working capital.Most recent credit rating.Business and financial reputation.Current Financial Position Analysis. The balance sheet ofthe firm will provide you information on the firm's currentfinancial position. The balance sheet is a report thatsummarizes the firm's assets and liabilities, as well asits net worth (owner's equity). The report is known as abalance sheet because the sum of all assets must equal(balance) the sum of liabilities and net worth.For example, Lloyd's Manufacturing has provided youwith the following information for the years 19X6 to 19X8:Lloyd's Manufacturing Financial PositionAccounts19X619X719X8Cash 82,000 80,000 85,000Accounts Receivable 190,000 200,000 180,000

InventoryOthe

analysis yourself or interpret the analysis of specialists (e.g., auditors, financial analysts, price/cost analysis), you must understand the basic concepts of financial analysis. Financial analysis typically provides information, not cle

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