THE DATA VIZ-ARTs - Syria-visualized
THE DATA VIZ-ARTsVISUALIZING THE CRISISIN SYRIAHow mapping violence and refugee flowscan inform policy-makingProcess BookMar CarpanelliLily LiMaria Schwarz1
ContentsContents .2Project plan. 3Basic project information.3Background and motivation . 4Objectives .4Related Work . 5Tasks .6Data and data process .7Visualization and design ideas .13Initial sketches (Week 1).13Design sketches webpage layout (Week 2) .16Interaction storyboard (Week 2). 19Expert feedback (Week 3) . 22Design changes (Week 3) .23Re-designs (week 3) .24Redesigns (Week 4) .27Expert feedback on prototype V1.0 (Week 5) .30Redesigns (Week 5) .33Redesigns (Week 6) .36Feature list .39Web layout structure / Storytelling . 41Discussion on layout .41Project schedule . 42Progress log .44Design/Storytelling . 46Team roles and team consensus.49Team roles (description) .49Team consensus document .502
Project planBasic project informationProject Name:SPREADING VIOLENCE IN SYRIAHow mapping violence and refugee flows can inform policymakingTeam members: Maria del Mar CarpanelliMPA/ID Candidate at Harvard Kennedy SchoolMaria Carpanelli@hks16.harvard.eduLi Li (Lily)MPA/ID Candidate at Harvard Kennedy SchoolLi Li@hks16.harvard.eduMaria SchwarzMPA/ID Candidate at Harvard Kennedy SchoolMaria Schwarz@hks16.harvard.eduProject URL:http://www.syria-visualized.com3
Background and motivationSince the conflict in Syria started in 2011, 5 million Syrians were left homelessand hopeless. The extreme violence that has spread over Syria has led thecountry devastated.However, international awareness of the seriousness of this issue is still very poor.The world has not been able to reach a coordinated effort to bring a solution tothe humanitarian crisis in Syria.In a world in which information is power and the public can have a decisive role inpolicymaking, a good data visualization of this problem can trigger action towardsan integrated solution at the supranational level.ObjectivesVarious actors have been tracking refugee movements over time (in general, andspecifically with respect to the conflict in Syria, see section on related workbelow). Similarly, some actors have been mapping the occurrence of violentevents in Syria (e.g., SyriaTracker, MonkeyCage, SIPRI, and Jakub Langr, seebelow).However, there is no common source available that provides a dynamic view onviolence and how it links to refugee flows. By using an interactive visualizationand displaying how the situation evolves over time, we will be able to provide anintuitive angle to the dynamics of violence and political migration in Syria.Illustrate thedynamics of violenceand politicalmigration Show development of violence over timeo Spread of violence within the countryo Perpetrators and victims of political violenceCreate transparencyfor policy-makers Understand what has happened in Syria Identify early trends in violence or refugeemovement patterns that allow for earlierintervention (e.g., predict funding needs) Distill lessons learnt, e.g., what is a threshold ofviolence that citizens endure before choosing tomigrateRaise awareness Create awareness about political violence in Syria Provide information to interested audience in hostcountries of refugees Illustrate the relationship between politicalviolence and refugee flows4
Related WorkSyria and event studies Syria Tracker provides crowd-sourced information on conflict evolution inSyria Jakub Langr: Static representation of violence caused by ISIS in Syria overtime Monkey cage political violence blog: Discusses sources of data for trackingpolitical violence in Syria Stockholm International Research Institute (SIPRI) discusses potential biasesin media coverage (that might affect as well our data) GED: Global instances of political violence – unfortunately database withinsufficient coverage of the Syria incidentsRefugee flows and information: The refugee project shows flow of refugees from origin countries over time NY Times tracks refugee movements over time (The Flight of Refugeesaround the Globe) UNHCR visualizes the regional refugee response of neighboring countriesusing D3 BBC tracks the journey of refugees from Syria to their destination countries Refugee flows to European countries over time: Takepart5
Tasks Identify relevant data sources (events, refugee data,Datacollection/funding?)Data wrangling Data description (see below) Data cleaning: Determine right level for data aggregationin illustrationBackgroundresearch History of Syrian Civil War / history of refugee flows Theoretical framework: Violence in civil wars and how itspreads Theories of refugee flows Data: Violence, victims, number of refugee flows, fundingof refugee camps, crisis responseStoryline Develop narrative for webpage / visualization Identify core messages to be sharedDesign Core visualizations to illustrate storyline Interaction storyboardD3implementation Implement visualizations in D3Webpage: Webpage hosting Storytelling components Website design (incl. HTML/CSS)Screencast: Develop 2 min narrative for webpage, project overview,as well as policy-makers (policy-brief)6
Data and data processIn this project, we use three datasets to record violent events and refugee flows.Violent Events Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS)This event dataset1 is called Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS) forthe Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and Office of NavalResearch (ONR).Description: This geo-coded micro-level event data consists of coded interactionsbetween socio-political actors (i.e., cooperative or hostile actions betweenindividuals, groups, sectors and nation states). Events are automatically identifiedand extracted from news articles by the BBN ACCENT event coder. These eventsare essentially triples consisting of a source actor, an event type (according to theCAMEO2 taxonomy of events), and a target actor. Geographical-temporalmetadata are also extracted and associated with the relevant events within anews article.Time Frame: 2011 – 2015.Frequency: DailyVariables of Interests: Event Date, Source Country, CAMEO Code, Intensity, TargetCountry, Country, Latitude, and Longitude.Folder Name: “dataverse files”Main Source/Materials: ICEWS Coded Event Data Read Me1 tentId doi:10.7910/DVN/280752 Conflict and Mediation Event Observations Codebook7
Figure 1: Screenshot of ICEWS event data The GDELT Project (GDELT)Description: This is another geo-coded micro-level event dataset is from GoogleIdeas. The GDELT Project monitors the world's broadcast, print, and web newsfrom nearly every corner of every country and identifies the people, locations,organizations, counts, themes, sources, emotions, counts, quotes and eventsdriving our global society every second of every day. Its event type also followsCAMEO.Time Frame: 2011 – 2016.Frequency: DailyVariables of Interests: SQLDATE, MonthYear, Year, Actor1Code,Actor1CountryCode, Actor1Type1Code, Actor2Code, Actor2CountryCode,EventCode, GoldsteinScale, ActionGeo Lat, ActionGeo LongFolder Name: “GDELT events”Main Source/Materials: http://gdeltproject.org/data.html8
Refugee Flows UNHCR: Syria Regional Refugee ResponseDescription: This is a country-level refugee flow dataset. It provides the refugeecamp host country names, the origin country names, and population values. Italso has detailed demographic information on age, gender, and urban/rural.Time Frame: 2012 – 2016.Frequency: MonthlyVariables of Interests: Country/territory of asylum/residence, Origin, Month,Year, ValueFolder Name: “refugee flows”Main Source/Materials: d 107The process: In order to download the data for each refugee camp, we manuallyclicked through every refugee camp site and downloaded the correspondinginformation. We then aggregated the data into single Excel files – one withrefugee information by country (for the violence map visualization) and one withrefugee information by camp and time.We then used the refugee google map screenshots to manually code refugee camplocations for the “where do they go” section.9
Figure 2: Manual download of refugee data for each campFigure 3: Screenshot of refugee data (1 camp only; data will still need to be merged)10
Casualty data Violence Documentation Center SyriaDescription: The Violence Documentation Center (VDC) in Syria has beencollecting information on casualties during the Syrian conflict. While the datasource is likely not fully complete and has some biases to overreporting casualtiesof rebel groups, it was a source recommended to us by Dr. Anita Gohdes – who isone of the leading experts on casualty estimates in Syria.Time Frame: 2011- Apr 19, 2016.Frequency: DailyVariables of Interests: Name, Location, Date, Cause of Death, Gender, Age (Adultvs. Child)Folder Name: “2016 casualties”Main Source/Materials: http://www.vdc-sy.info/index.php/en/homeSince the refugee information is not conveniently available in a downloadableformat, we needed to do some web scraping using beautiful soup in order todownload and save the information in a format that we could work with. Wedownloaded all information from the “Martyr” and the “Regime fatalities” tabsand joined them into a single dataframe.11
Figure 4: Web scraping to save casualty information in a usable format12
Visualization and design ideasInitial sketches (Week 1)13
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Design sketches webpage layout (Week 2)16
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Interaction storyboard (Week 2)19
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Expert feedback (Week 3)Note: The feedback we got was not classified according to Nielsen. We interpreted the urgencybased on what our facilitator observed during the session.Violence map Use brush component to show accumulated violence over time as well (notonly at a specific point in time) ! disregarded, because we think it would beconfusing for users to have both a vertical line that moves across time and arectangle brush; moreover, right now accumulation over 3 months is displayed. Perhaps you can add a link on the current front page visualization so that whenyou click on a country where refugees are leaving to, it brings you to a zoomedin, clicked on, version of the refugee camp tab (! disregard; we deliberatelychose to tell a story that guides the users through the narrative and does notoverload them with information) There might be too much going on – especially when actors are encoded withcolors. Maybe give people the choice to select various actor (! changed, seebelow)Actor Sankey Wording: “Aggressors” & “Victims” might be politically confusing (! changed,see below) Make it a chord diagram rather than a Sankey to better see who is fightingwhom (! changed, see below)Storyline End with a more positive message; encourage people to help ! will includethat in webpage Turn around storyline to have violence chart as a conclusion (! disregarded,because the storyline follows a natural narrative from violence " peopledying/being afraid " refugee flows " refugee crisis) Change order of tabs/graphs: first show actors involved then show violenceand refugees (! disregarded; we think we need the first visualization tocreate a sense of urgency and since it touches on both topic areas (violence &humanitarian aspects) it serves as kind of a landing page for furthervisualizations)22
Design changes (Week 3)Critique / PointInnovation" see (1) innext section Changes in designs Refugee counters(numbers) are changingfast and thus changes overtime are difficult to grasp (e.g., when is there a jumpin refugee numbers in acertain country?)Traditional solution: Add line chartsthat show refugee development overtime per countryAdding an item-by-item selectionfor each of the actors, when in the“actor view” of the violence map(first vis)To not overload the audience withtoo many graphs, we decided to gofor an innovative solution: Inaddition to the refugee counter), wewill add images of “little people”that will “grow” as the number ofrefugees is growing. " “Littlepeople counter”Expertfeedback I" see (1) Violence map: Filtering byactors is overloading userswith information; it wouldbe great to select actorsExpertfeedback II Actor involvement: Make it a chord diagram ratherthan a Sankey to bettersee who is fighting whomWill change it to a chord diagramExpertfeedback III Actor involvement: Use ofwording that might bepolitically loaded Change wording from aggressors to“source of violence” and victims to“target”Expertfeedback IV Webpage storytelling: Endwith more positive note /call to action Will implement thatTeamdiscussion" see (3) Current situation / whatcan you do: the mapcurrently shows world, butthe available data ismostly centered in Europe Using a different “cut” of the worldmap – primarily focusing on Europe 23
Re-designs (week 3)(1)Major changes: “little-people counter” // Select & de-select actors24
(2) Major changes: Chord diagram instead of Sankey / Adjustment of wording25
(3) Major changes: show mostly European countries rather than the entireworld26
Redesigns (Week 4)Decided to go with a mostly dark / black backgroundTherefore added transparency features on the violence map (little people counteris almost working; will be included in next version)27
For the Actor Chord, we tested it with a sample audience and since it is hard tounderstand, we included an explanation to start with (before the full graph isshowing up).Only in a second step we show the full-fledged actor chord to be available forusers28
Lastly, we include the map that shows who is currently helping and takingrefugees.29
Expert feedback on prototype V1.0 (Week 5)We collected feedback on our prototype V1.0 from various sources, which haveinspired our re-design.Techy fromNepalFeedbackChanges in designs(green if already implemented) Site looks messy andmessages are not clear To set the context, add ageneral information of theSyrian Civil War at thebeginning (infographic /video)Context / Messaging: Changedslide titles to guiding questionsthat will help orient the user Context/Messaging: We will addsome context on the conflict inthe screencast Context/Messaging: To recap, weimplemented a timeline with keyinsights from the visualization atthe end. Ignored comment on peoplenames on casualty graph, sincewe think the messaging is muchmore powerful like that. Plus wethink of it as well as amemorandum kind of page Names on people on casualtygraph is too much detail fora webpage30
Argentiniancommunicator, designer,and publicist Spread of violenceo Unclear what numbersmeant and realizingthat movement meanta timelineo Map is too slow, funcomes at the endo People do notrecognize that theycan filter across typesof violence o Speed: introduced “playselection” that shows onlythe most important eventsActor Chordo Shorten theexplanation if possible(other feedback saidwe should increase the time though)o Interactions areunclear GermanlawyerWho is helping: Key messageis not clear to me General: need something likekey milestones to explain theconflict “Wow – we really only havethat many refugees inGermany? Why is there somuch fuzz then? What isTurkey doing instead?”Spread of violenceo Unclear what numbersmeant: there is a legend;hopefully with “littlepeople” counter itbecomes more compelling we might use screencastto elaborate; potentiallyadding a calendar countero Filter: it already says thisright above the legend;maybe include it inscreencastActor Chordo No changes planned yet Who is helping: Add a transitional“page” that introduces the topic Introduced a timeline with keymilestones No changes. Just being happythat the message is comingacross ;)31
Argentinian/UK lawyerspecializing in human rightsissuesChileanactuaryComputerengineer andMBA fromArgentinaLove how each questionsleads to the next one; Things who are missing: Who are the victims? Violations tohuman rights and what theworld is doing besides taking refugees Would be great to have avideo at the beginning thatexplains the basics of theconflict There is bugs with InternetExplorer (buttons cannot beclicked or wrong actors showup) It would be great to be ableto go a step in theexplanations of the actorchord Shorten all texts on the page Interactions should be morehomogeneous across thewebpage: sometimes a hoverover the legend is ahighlight, sometimes a clickis a filter. It is hard topredict what happens.Moreover actionable itemsneed to be highlighted moreIncluded a visualization onvictimsWill include some information onconflict in the beginning timeline with milestonesChanged some of the interactionswe had in the first version32
Redesigns (Week 5)Added “little people” counter and made colors more coherent. Added as well a“play selection” section to just show the highlights and speed up the processAdded a visualization on “who are the victims”33
Added a new graph on refugee camps: Where are they going34
And added a timeline with key highlights.35
Redesigns (Week 6)Re-designed title page: in particular reducing text and capture attentionAdded screencast changed appearance of up/down buttons to make it look a bitmore modern36
Added calendar to ensure that people realize that this is a “timeline”. Changedcolors of legend text and made elements interactive.Added storytelling slides in between visualizations to capture attention37
Adjusted legend / legend interactions to harmonize them with previousvisualizations38
Feature list(Green means done / blue in progress / black not started)Must-have featuresOptional featuresIntroduction None Video introducing thecontext of the Syrian CivilWarSpread ofviolence Map of Syria and surrounding Brushing features thatcountriesallows to aggregateviolent events over time Violent events popping up as Allow split by actor &circle over timeselect various actors Time with play / pause buttons Extrapolation of refugeeand time-slider for specifictime horizonflows to neighboringcountries (to account for Refugee counter in neighboringthe issue that we onlycountrieshave monthly or biweeklydata for refugee flows,yet daily data for violentevents) Add a counter using “littlepeople” ! innovative Add a date counter in topright cornerDynamics ofviolence Actor chord of who is fighting Potentially: hover/clickwhomfeature for timeline thatfilters and aggregates Information on click (orviolence data for e.g., amouseover) violence of a givengiven year (such that oneactor against another actorcan observe changes overover timetime)Casualties Include innovativevisualizations of casualties in2016 (with one dotrepresenting a casualty) Cluster dots into groupsfor male/female, adult/child, and by cause ofdeath39
Refugeecrisis For neighboring countrieswhere refugee camp data isavailable, show growth ofrefugee camps over time (sizeof bubble at specific location) Additional information graphthat shows (upon click) therefugee number timeline for agiven refugee campRefugees:Personalnarratives Add latest information onage and gender structureof camp population ! notenough variation Add refugee campinformation (google maps,picture) Set of mini-chloroplethsthat show how refugeenumbers increase overtime within neighboringcountries and Europe Include quotes andportraits of refugeestelling their story — replaced with storyliningquotes inbetweenWhat canyou do? World map responsive to clicks For selected countries displaycurrent refugee information /who is taking proportionatelymore than others. Button for donationsAbout US Team pictures Team motivation40
Web layout structure / StorytellingEach bullet point represents a different section Introduction section: Video/Infographic setting the context of the refugeecrisis in Syria Spread of violence: Spread of violence across Syria and count of refugees inneighboring countries Dynamics of violence: Sankey chart showing perpetrators or victims of violencewith additional detail on demand Casualty information: Who has died in the Syrian conflict in 2016 (new) Refugee crisis: Increase of refugee numbers in various refugee camps aroundSyria Refugee story: Enrich narrative through personal stories and quotes fromrefugees Call to action: Illustrate what various countries are doing; Timeline with Key Takeaways (new) About us: Introduce our team and why we care.Discussion on layout Want to have a layout: “each page at a time” with black/white pictures inthe background41
Project scheduleWeek 1Mar 21-27 Finalize data collection Understand amount of data cleaning required Develop initial design ideas Project planDeliverables Initial project plan (due Apr 28)Week 2Mar 28-Apr 3 Meet with Prof. Dara Cohen (civil wars) to betterunderstand usefulness of visualization for policy-making(understand must-have features) Add data sources if required Discuss design ideas, narrow down designs Begin data cleaning efforts Look for sample code for basic visualizations Assign overall responsibilities w.r.t. to coding tasks(e.g., D3 main coder, HTML/CSS main coder, screen-cast)Deliverables Final project plan (Due Apr 4)Week 3Apr 4 - 10 Finalize design based on peer feedback Begin coding of designs to avoid any bad surprises! Develop concept for screen-castDeliverables Project re-design (Due Apr 11)Features Spread of violence basic graph Sankey chart basic graph click for additionalinformation Refugee camps basic graph Basic webpage outline42
Week 4 Coding dungeonApr 11-17Deliverables Project prototype V1 (Due Apr 18)Features Spread of violence: Timeline (play and pause) chloropleth of neighboring countries Sankey chart brushoverWeek 5Apr 18-24 Coding dungeon Develop presentation / screencastDeliverables Project Prototype V2 (Due Apr 25)Features Spread of violence: extrapolation of refugee counts Spread of violence: additional brush elements Refugee: additional information Refugee crisis: mini chloropleth Refugee narrative: personal stories and webpage Video webpageWeek 6Apr 25-May 1 In-depth error checking Website finalizationDeliverables MPA/ID presentation (Apr 26) Final project (due May 2nd) SEAS design fair (May 4th)43
Progress logDesignWeek 1Mar 21-27Week 2Mar 28-Apr 3 Finalize data collection Understand amount of data cleaning required Discussion of data sources with civil war expert (Prof.Dara Cohen) resulted in discarding the GDELT dataset infavor of the ICEWS dataset. Moreover, biases in mediarelated event data will need to be made transparent onthe project pageo Data cleaning: Filter out Syria data with intensityscales of -8.0 or smallero Actor encoding: Manually recode actorclassifications into major categories Reaching out to UNHCR expert to get consolidated viewon data – however, no consolidated data source available.Thus, we began downloading individual datasets fromUNHCRo Consolidate individual data sets into one Personal narratives: We would like to include personalnarratives of refugees in our storytelling: Maria to reachout to friends in Germany who are working with Syrianrefugees Further data sources (e.g., casualty data) to be discussedwith researcher at the Belfer Center (Anita Godhes) /scheduled for Tuesday, March 4Week 3Apr 4 – Apr 11 Finalize data aggregation / prepare data for each graph Added new data source on casualties of violence "scrape data from the webpage http://vdc-sy.info44
Week 4Apr 12 – Apr 18 Manual encoding of refugee locations Data for casualty data has been scraped, cleaned andfiltered-- Data process complete45
Design/StorytellingWeek 1 Initial sketches submitted with project planMar 21-27Week 2Mar 28-Apr 3Week 3Apr 4 – Apr 11 Updated visualizations based on vis exploration postersession Team discussion on overall storyline and requiredvisualizations to underpin storyline, agreed on overallstoryline (see above) Violence mapo Replace chloropleth of neighboring countries with“little people” that build up as refugee numbersare increasingo Add select element for actors and types of violence(e.g., display only government violence or killings)o Add a date counter on top right corner (optional) Actor overviewo Rename Aggressors and victimso Replace Sankey with chord diagram Storylineo End on a more positive note. Webpageo Decided to go for a “one page at a time” layout;ideally with black and white pictures in thebackground.Week 4Apr 12 – Apr 18 Violence Mapo Added transparency to make it look better with theblack/white photographic backgrounds Actor overviewo Completed interactive, stacked bar chart Action mapo Added storytelling snippets on right hand side Implemented one-page flow for storytelling46
Week 5Apr 19 – Apr 24 Violence Map: Speed-up buttono Implemented “little people” refugee countero Since interval speed already at 1 millisecond,constraint is likely computing speed, not intervalspeedo As an alternative, we included a “show highlight”section in which only a few events are being pickedand displayed to the reader Casualty information: Added new chart on casualtieso Original plan of illustrating all casualties by a doteach or at least the 2015 casualties needed to beabandoned, because moving more than 10,000 dotsat a time is taking a lot of computational powero Instead, changed view to include only the 2016casualties Where do they go:o Newly added visualizations with refugee campsvisualized and growing over time as the number ofregistered refugee camps within each camp growso Still need to change colors to make a morecoherent picture47
Week 6Apr 25 – May 2 Violence Mapo Added “Calendar” to show that “Play” refers totime dimensiono Recolored legend text added legend textinteractivity to homogenize interactivity with othervisualizationso Redrew country shape of Iraq which - in naturalearth based files - had been displayed as twodifferent shapes Refugee camps:o Added interactions in line with other visualizations Web designo Made background pictures all black and white toimprove contrasto Re-designed initial page and reduced text Responsive designo Screen resizing issues became apparent whendisplaying our project to the MPA/ID programo Implemented responsive elements for Navigationbar and some of the buttons for each visualization Storytelling: added storytelling pages to the website toguide the audience through the page Loading time: implemented some delay in the display ofthe navigation bar and button to “bridge” loading time Screencast: Produced screencast48
Team roles and team consensusTeam roles (description)Coordinator(Lily)Submitter(Maria)Team welfareimprovement Responsible for meeting coordination and overall processmgmt Scheduling of team meetings and external meetings(calendar invites) Ensures timely and complete delivery of deliverables Keeps track of deliverables and coordinates with team toensure all deliverables are submitted in time Keeps process book updated(Mar) Team welfare improvement for late night meetings(organizes food and drinks) Brings cheerful mood to the team room ;)Communicator(Mar) Handles external team communication (e.g., with TA,content experts, MPA/ID program director)Project stresstesting(Lily) Test visualizations and homepage for potential sources oferrors (or browser compatibility issues)Technicaltroubleshooting(Maria) Keep oversight over coding efforts; ensures seamlessintegration of various visualizations into one webpage Trouble shoot technical failures through debuggingWebpage Set-up hosting environment for webpage Maintain webpage after project ends for at least one year If team continues with data visualizat
Design Core visualizations to illustrate storyline Interaction storyboard D3 implementa-tion Implement visualizations in D3 Webpage: Webpage hosting Storytelling components Website design (incl. HTML/CSS) Screencast: Develop 2 min narrative for webpage, pr
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