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Chinese Efforts in Quantum Information Science: Drivers,Milestones, and Strategic ImplicationsTestimony for the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review CommissionMarch 16th, 2017John CostelloWe are in the midst of a “second quantum revolution,” one that enables disruptive newtechnologies that have the potential to change long-held dynamics in commerce, military affairs,and strategic balance of power.1 Within the foreseeable future, the realization of quantumcomputing will result in revolutionary computing power, with wide-reaching applications. Theemployment of quantum cryptography can create quantum communications systems that aretheoretically unbreakable and unhackable. Quantum sensing enables the capability to conductextremely precise, accurate measurements for new forms of navigation, radar, and opticaldetection.Although the future trajectory of quantum technologies is hard to predict, their revolutionarypotential and promise has intensified international competition. The U.S. remains at the forefrontof quantum information science, but its lead has slipped considerably as other nations, China inparticular, have allocated extensive funding to basic and applied research. Consequently, Chineseadvances in quantum information science have the potential to surpass the United States.2 Onceoperationalized, quantum technologies will also have transformative implications for China’snational security and economy. As the United States has sustained a leading position in theinternational affairs due in part to its technological, military, and economic preeminence, it iscritical to take swift action to reverse this trend and once again place the United States as afrontrunner in emerging technologies like quantum information science.This testimony will address the following topics:1Jonathan P. Dowling and Gerard J. Milburne, “Quantum Technology: the Second Quantum Revolution,”Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences361, no. 1809 (2003): 1655-1674, https://arxiv.org/pdf/quant-ph/0206091.pdf2This testimony builds upon prior research and writings by the author, including: Elsa Kania and John Costello,“Quantum Leap (Part 1): China’s Advances in Quantum Information Science, China Brief, December 5, 2016. ElsaKania and John Costello, “Quantum Leap (Part 2): The Strategic Implications of Quantum Technologies, ChinaBrief, December 21, 2016.!1

Part I offers a basic overview of the underlying technology, applications, current status,and challenges in quantum computing, quantum encryption, and quantum sensing. Part II details drivers behind China’s investment in quantum information science, nationalR&D plans, and efforts and milestones. Part III compares U.S. and Chinese efforts and delineates the critical factors in play. Part IV details the commercial and strategic implications of quantum information sciencetechnologies. Part V provides a conclusion and final thoughts on the information presented. Part VI gives recommendations to the U.S. Congress on how the United States mayregain its lead in quantum information science and other critical emerging technologies.Part I. Overview of Quantum Information Science Technologies:Quantum information science harnesses the power of uncertainty and the strange – oftencounterintuitive – properties of quantum states. Taken together and scaled, these technologiesestablish exciting new paradigms in every aspect where information is used, stored, processed, orcollected, providing vastly more powerful instruments of computation, security, andmeasurement.General PrinciplesQuantum information science can be broadly broken up into quantum computing, quantumencryption, and quantum sensing. While each of these technologies differ wildly in technologicalbasis and applications, all rely on two fundamental properties of quantum phenomena:superposition and entanglement. Superposition refers to the ability of a particle, like a photon, toexist in all possible states at the same time. Entanglement refers to sharing this state across twoor more particles. Observing the particle will “collapse” the state, resulting in its reversion to oneof the two states. So too, for entangled pairs, even if separated across a great distance, theobservation of either particle will “collapse” the state, immediately reverting one particle to onestate and the other to a corresponding, opposite state. It is these strange properties ofsuperposition and entanglement, the latter of which Einstein famously referred to as “spookyaction at a distance,” that give these technologies their unique power.Quantum ComputingTraditional or “classical” computers perform calculations using standard “bits” which exist instates 1 or 0. Quantum computing, through its employment of “qubits” (i.e., a quantum analogue!2

of the “bit,” which simultaneously exists in a superposition of the states of 0 and 1), will conveyan extreme advantage in computing power. Qubits, which exist in a superimposed state andentangled together are able to execute vast numbers of calculations simultaneously. In the future,quantum computers will be able to resolve complex algorithms, including those integral to moststandard encryption methods. Computations that would be impossible or infeasible for classicalcomputers to perform can be performed by quantum computers at sufficient scale.The commercial promise of a full-scale general quantum computer is largely driving both statelevel and commercial funding into these technologies. The commercial and military applicationsof these technologies are nearly endless, appropriate wherever speed and processing power are ata premium. Some commercial applications that have been suggested include large-scalesimulations for weather, complex and chaotic systems, protein folding and modeling, genomics,big-data, intelligence processing, and artificial intelligence. For the military, as the informationage ends and a new age based on automation and machine learning takes hold, the processingpower of quantum computers promises to play a critical role.Currently, a general-purpose, full-scale quantum computer does not exist. D-Wave, a Canadabased company, does produce what has been called the world’s first quantum computer.However, this computer uses “quantum annealing” a form of computation that, strictly defined,is not considered “true” quantum computing. Google, IBM, and NASA, among others, on theU.S. side and Alibaba and Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) on the Chinese side are eachestablishing public-private or private research groups with the object of developing a general-usequantum computer. The goal is to achieve “quantum supremacy” or a quantum computer that isable to outperform a traditional, or classical computer in every way.There are significant technological barriers that need to be overcome to realize a fully capablequantum computer. It will be challenging but necessary to scale quantum computers to achievequantum supremacy. In addition, designing the algorithms and software on which thesecalculations could be run presents a further challenge. Since quantum computers do not performcalculations like classical computers, newer approaches to software and programming areanother factor to consider in developing the capacity necessary to exploit these technologies.Nonetheless, security researchers have become concerned that quantum computers couldundermine certain prevalent encryption standards currently in use. Using Shor’s algorithm, aquantum computer of sufficient scale would be able to crack encryption keys for many modernforms of encryption, an endeavor that by today’s classical computing standards would beimpossible or infeasible within a practical time frame. In 2015, likely in response to progress in!3

quantum computing, the National Security Agency (NSA) updated their “Suite B” encryptionmethods towards ones that focused on “quantum resistant” encryption, or encryption standardsthat would be beyond a quantum computer’s ability to break.3 The National Institute of Standardsand Technology (NIST) has also launched a competition in response to develop a set of“quantum resistant” encryption standards.4 Other forms of encryption, such as lattice-basedencryption, are less efficient but resistant through cracking from quantum computers.Quantum Cryptography:There are three qualities of quantum states that give quantum encryption and communicationstheir protective power, according to SANS.5 First, the “no-cloning” theorem states that anunknown quantum state cannot be copied. Second, in a quantum system, which is a complex oftwo or more particles in a shared “entangled” state, an attempt to measure or observe will disturbthe system, revealing an eavesdropper to the sender and recipient. Third, disturbing the system isirreversible, meaning an interloper wouldn’t be able to cover up evidence of the interception.Quantum key distribution can be accomplished through fiber-optic networks as well as over theelectromagnetic spectrum in “free space” quantum communications. Sending through fiber-opticnetworks limits range of QKD, while quantum free-space communications allows for more longdistance key exchange but opens it open to other forms of interference, such as debris, noise, andjamming. These technologies have considerable technological and logistical challenges and,according to some researchers don’t confer enough information security advantages to warrantthe added complexity necessary for their use. The Air Force Scientific Advisory Board stated thatclassical alternatives offer the same advantages without the headache of additional equipmentand complexity. 6Concerns over information security and privacy of communication may be driving significantstate-level investment in this field. China, in particular, has drawn a direct line between statelevel programs in quantum encryption and revelations of massive U.S. espionage alleged by3Bruce Schneier, “NSA Plans for a Post-Quantum World,” Lawfare, August 21, 2015, -world4Lily Chen, Stephen Jordan, Yi-Kai Liu, Dustin Moody, Rene Peralta, Ray Perlner, and Daniel Smith-Tone, “Reporton Post-Quantum Cryptography,” National Institute of Standards and Technology Internal Report 8105 (2016).5Bruce R. Auburn, “Quantum Encryption–A Means to Perfect Security,” SANS Institute, 2003, F Scientific Advisory Board, “Utility of Quantum Systems for the Air Force,” August 19, 2016, 73/documents/AFD-151214-041.pdf?ver 2016-08-19-101445-230.!4

Edward Snowden. These technologies have apparent, but untested, military applications as well.Quantum teleportation and communication not only conceals the content of the message, but alsoalerts the recipient and sender if the signal is intercepted. This is a major potential disruptivefeature in the world of global intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities.Quantum SensingQuantum sensing, broadly defined, is the ability to use quantum phenomena like entanglementfor extremely precise and accurate measurements, also known as quantum metrology. Thisdiscipline of quantum information science is a collection of techniques and applications ofquantum metrology in sensors, rather than a specific technology in its own right. More accuratequantum clocks, quantum imagery, radar, navigation, and compasses are all discussed under thisdiscipline.Quantum sensors for use in gravimetric readers have commercial and military applications insubsurface sensing and detection (such as in oil-drilling) and inertial navigation systems, whichwould allow for high-precision navigation without global position satellites (GPS). This socalled “quantum navigation” or “quantum compass” would be useful for submarines and othermaritime platforms. Quantum radar could nullify stealth technologies and advanced forms ofradar jamming. Quantum imagery can allow for more precise optical capabilities that would haveapplications to space-spaced intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance and awareness in thespace domain.Of quantum information science disciplines, quantum sensing has the most direct and obviousmilitary applications. As such, there is comparatively little openly available research on thesetopics when compared to quantum computing and encryption, which appear to be largelyprivatesector and academic affairs, respectively. As further research into this field evolves, moreinformation will give a better picture of the relative progress made by the United States andChina in the development of these technologies.Part II. Chinese Quantum Information Science Efforts:Under the leadership of Xi Jinping, China’s prioritization of quantum information science hasintensified. From the Chinese leadership’s perspective, quantum technologies have becomeintegral to national security, particularly information security, and to strategic competition. Thisresearch agenda has taken on increased importance ever since the leaks by former NSAcontractor Edward Snowden. In fact, this incident was so fundamental to Chinese motivations!5

that Snowden has been characterized as one of two individuals with a primary role in thisscientific ‘drama,’ along with Pan Jianwei himself.7There are three fundamental factors driving China’s investment into quantum informationscience R&D:1. Information Security: The use of quantum encryption and communication for informationsecurity is a primary driver for China’s increased investment in that field. Chinesescientists and media have drawn a direct linkage between the need for progress inquantum information science and the Snowden leaks. As Chinese authorities grow moreconcerned about potential for spying in their ICT systems, the advantages that quantumencryption confers will be se This will be especially critical as Chinese society growsmore informatized and connected, potentially making it even more vulnerable to foreignadversary spying, sabotage, and influence.2. Economic Competition: There is a recognition that current U.S. dominance ininformation technology may not confer any substantial advantages in pursuit of quantuminformation science, essentially placing China on par with the United States and putting itin a unique strategic position to corner the market on these technologies. If so, Chinawould benefit from first-to-market advantage that, when coupled with its manufacturingand human capital base would allow it to achieve and sustain global leadership inquantum information solutions and the next information revolution.3. Strategic Military Competition: Quantum computing has very real military applications inthe fields of big data analytics, artificial intelligence, complex systems simulation, andadvanced robotics. The widespread adoption of quantum technologies for military orgovernment communications would hinder an adversary’s ability to conduct surveillanceand signal intercepts, as any attempt to do so would be detectable. Additionally, use ofquantum sensing for inertial navigation, stealth detection, high-resolution space-basedsurveillance and reconnaissance, and submarine detection each challenge current militaryparadigms built on technological and intelligence superiority, although in different ways.These would disrupt current military paradigms in which the United States has a distinctadvantage.7“China Will Establish a Global Quantum Communications Network By 2030” [中国将 力力争在2030年年前后建成全球量量 子通信 网], Xinhua, August 16, 2016, py9658879.shtml.!6

For these reasons, quantum technology has attracted the attention of the Chinese leadership at thehighest levels, and Xi himself has emphasized the strategic importance of quantum technologiesto national security and particularly cyber security. In September 2013, Xi Jinping and otherPolitburo members visited Anhui Quantum Communication Technology Co. Ltd. for a collectivelearning session, meeting with Pan Jianwei and the company’s general manager, before viewinga demonstration of quantum communication technology.8 In November 2015, at the 18th PartyCongress’ 5th Plenum, Xi Jinping included quantum communications in his list of major scienceand technology projects that are prioritized for major breakthroughs by 2030, given theirimportance from the perspective of China’s long-term strategic requirements.9 In April, Xivisited the University of Science and Technology of China, where he met with Pan Jianwei andpraised his progress.10 During the 36th Politburo study session on cyber security, Xi alsoemphasized the importance of advancing indigenous innovation in quantum communications andother critical cyber information technologies.11Chinese National R&D PlanningAt the highest level, the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020), formulated in the aftermath of theSnowden leaks, intensifies the prioritization of quantum information science, including“quantum control” in the category of “basic research related to national strategic requirements.”12Following from this, China’s national research and development plans for science andtechnology have translated the increasing national prioritization of quantum technology intoaction through funding research in this domain. The National Key R&D Plan (国家重点研发计8“Anhui Quantum Communications Innovation Successfully Featured in Politburo Collective LearningActivities” [安徽量量 子通信创新成果 亮相中央政治局集体学习活动], Quantum CTek, September 30, 2013, http://www.quantum-sh.com/news/146.html.9“Xi Jinping: Explanations Regarding the “CCP Central Committee Suggestions Regarding the Formation of theNational Economic and Social Development Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” [习近平:关于《中共中央关于制定国 民经济和社会发展第 十三个五年年规划的建议》的说明], Xinhua, November 3, 2015, http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2015-11/03/c 1117029621 3.htm.10“Xi Jinping Inspected USTC: Must Advance Independent Innovation in the Process of Opening” [习近平考察中科 大:要在开放中推进 自主创新], Xinhua, April 27, 2016, http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2016-04/27/c 1118744858.htm11“Xi Jinping: Accelerate the Advancement Independent Innovation in Cyber and Information Technology,Unrelentingly Strive towards the Objective of Constructing a Cyber Power” [习近平:加快推进 网络信息技术 自主创新 朝着建设 网络强国 目标不不懈努 力力], Xinhua, October 9, 2016, http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2016-10/09/c 1119682204.htm12““Thirteenth Five-Year” Plan Guidelines” [“ 十三五”规划纲要], Xinhua, March 18, 2016, 110334 all.html!7

划), a large-scale reorganization of China’s national-level research and development planning,including the consolidation of the 863 and 973 plans, has strengthened and focused developmentof quantum information science.13Although the Chinese focus on quantum technology can be largely attributed to informationsecurity concerns, this also reflects the successes achieved through the research undertaken sofar. This has become a self-reinforcing cycle in which national-level interest in quantumtechnology has proceeded alongside and been reinforced by progress that Chinese researchershave achieved.National Key R&D PlanIn February 2016, the National Key R&D Plan (国家重点研发计划) included quantum controland quantum information among its prioritized projects. 14 The available guidance for the projectin 2016 and 2017 emphasized six particular research tasks: related electronic systems, smallquantum systems, artificial band-gap systems, quantum communications, quantum computingand simulations, and quantum precision measurement.1513th Five-Year National Science and Technology Innovation PlanIn August 2016, the new 13th Five-Year National Science and Technology Innovation Plan (国家科技创新规划), urged China to seize the “high ground” (制 点) in international scientificdevelopment, included an intensified focus on multiple forms of quantum technology.16 The planincluded qu

measurement. General Principles Quantum information science can be broadly broken up into quantum computing, quantum . methods towards ones that focused on “quantum resistant” encryption, or encryption standards . their protective power, according to SANS.5 First, .

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