White Paper: Stratification Of Industrial Land In Metro .

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White Paper: Stratification of Industrial Land in Metro VancouverPrepared for:Metro Vancouver, Regional PlanningParks, Planning and Environment DepartmentPrepared by:Eric Aderneck, Planning Consultanteric@aderneck.ca / 604-721-5528August 2018

White Paper: Stratification of Industrial Land in Metro VancouverContents123Introduction . 21.1Purpose of Paper. 21.2Industrial Lands Description . 21.3Stratification and Intensification . 2Metro Vancouver Industrial Lands Context . 32.1Industrial Land Inventory Supply . 32.2Industrial Market Conditions and Values. 32.3Industrial Demand by Sector . 42.4Unique Lands - Port and Airport . 5Extent of Industrial Stratification . 63.1Tenures of Industrial Development . 73.2Industry Comments About Industrial Stratification . 73.3Notable Strata Industrial Projects . 83.4Growth of Industrial Strata Development . 83.5Industrial Strata by Geography . 103.6Industrial Strata by Sector . 113.7Characteristics of Strata Industrial Development . 123.8Strata Industrial Occupant Considerations . 124Drivers of Industrial Stratification . 145Immediate Implications of Industrial Stratification . 226Long-Term Implications of Industrial Stratification . 2676.1Future Redevelopment Potential of Land. 266.2Wider Economic Impacts . 266.3Other Concerns . 27Conclusion . 28Appendix A: Interviewees . BAppendix B: References . CAppendix C: Example New Strata Industrial Projects .DAugust 2018Page 1

White Paper: Stratification of Industrial Land in Metro Vancouver1Introduction1.1 Purpose of PaperMetro Vancouver is coordinating the development of a Regional Industrial Lands Strategy. The Strategywill provide a vision for the future of industrial lands in Metro Vancouver and actions for achieving thevision.As an informational component, this paper has been prepared to explore the extent, trends, drivers,benefits, challenges, and implications of increased stratification of industrial lands in the MetroVancouver region. This paper documents the extent of industrial stratification by geography and sector,drivers of stratification, and potential implications (immediate and long-term) of these trends onindustry sectors and the industrial economy of the region. The results can be used to inform regionaland municipal plans and policies related to industrial lands.This paper is based on review of publically available information, research, and 25 interviews withstakeholders, specifically industrial developers, brokers, business associations, agencies, and otherexperts. These interviewees were targeted for structured informational interviews to receive theirdiverse and informed insights, opinions, and comments about industrial stratification issues. Theinterviews and paper were largely completed during August 2018.1.2 Industrial Lands DescriptionMetro Vancouver defines industrial in the Regional Growth Strategy1:"Industrial areas are primarily intended for heavy and light industrial activities, and appropriateaccessory uses. Limited commercial uses that support industrial activities are appropriate.Residential uses are not intended."However, it is important to also acknowledge that there is a wide range of different types of industrialand quasi-industrial uses, and accordingly they have different locational and space needs. MetroVancouver regional planning recognizes this through the below description of industrial uses2:"Metro Vancouver’s industrial lands are used mainly for transportation/warehousing, wholesaletrade, retail trade, manufacturing and professional/technical services. Many of the activities onthe region’s industrial lands provide for the local day-to-day needs of the region’s population,providing locations for services like regional utilities, vehicle repair, hotel laundry services,catering companies, couriers, breweries, small scale manufacturing, and craft/artisan designspace. In our port-based region, a significant amount of land is also needed for containerstorage, warehousing, freight forwarding, and other distribution functions that keep the regionconnected to Canada and the rest of the world."1.3 Stratification and IntensificationThe Metro Vancouver region is experiencing a severe shortage of industrial land supply, which ismanifesting itself in various forms: increasing land prices, very low vacancy rates, and higher lease12Metro Vancouver - Regional Growth Strategy: Shaping our Future, 2011Metro Vancouver - ng/industrial-lands/regional-strategyAugust 2018Page 2

White Paper: Stratification of Industrial Land in Metro Vancouverrates. These factors also impact the industrial real estate market, spurring more development ofindustrial projects (within the limitations of land supply) and more intense / dense forms of industrialdevelopment. In some cases, that means new higher density industrial developments that may alsoinclude increased accessory or offices uses, and in some cases these new developments are in the formof strata (condo) tenure -- often these two trends are associated with each other.2 Metro Vancouver Industrial Lands ContextThis section of the paper provides a contextual overview of the industrial real estate market in MetroVancouver, based on published market reports. These factors influence and spur industrialdevelopment, both in the form of strata and non-strata.2.1 Industrial Land Inventory SupplyThe Metro Vancouver 2015 Industrial Lands Inventory3 quantified the amount of industrial lands in theregion as 28,000 acres, of which 80% was 'developed' and only 20% or 5,586 acres was 'vacant'.Furthermore, the inventory noted that not all vacant lands are ideal for industrial uses, and that anotable amount of developed industrial lands have non-industrial uses on them.2.2 Industrial Market Conditions andValuesMetro Vancouver’s industrial market continued thetrend of growth after five years of consistentlypositive quarterly space absorption, with new supplystill struggling to meet demand. With over 200million sq ft of industrial building floor space, overthe past five years the average annual new supplywas 2.9 million sq ft, but the average absorption was3.5 million sq ft, indicating demand has beenoutstripping supply.4 The chart and table shows thedownward trend in vacancy rates since 2014, andsummary of the current market.Demand for industrial space continues to set newrecords as both owner-operator and investor interestin industrial assets strengthen amid low vacancy,constrained land supply, and rising rental ratesthroughout Metro Vancouver.5 Regional industrialspace demand has more than doubled in the lastthree years, a result of growth in GDP, population,and consumer spending.6Source: Colliers: Metro Vancouver Industrial Market, Q2 20183Metro Vancouver - Metro Vancouver 2015 Industrial Lands Inventory, 2016Colliers - National Dashboard Report, Industrial Metro Areas Population 1 Million, Q1 20185Avison Young - Metro Vancouver, Industrial Overview, Spring 20186Vancouver Sun, Evan Duggan - Industrial lease rate surge in Metro tops global study, August 22 20184August 2018Page 3

White Paper: Stratification of Industrial Land in Metro VancouverCurrently there is the greatest amount of industrial space under construction in the history of MetroVancouver, but so far new supply has provided limited relief to the lack of vacant space, leading tosignificant increases in lease rates.7 Many new developments are already preleased -- while thesubstantial amount of new strata product is likely to stabilize strata prices, the lack of new leaseproduct will not address vacancy in a meaningful way.8Metro Vancouver’s industrial vacancy rate stands at 1.4%, well below the five-year average of 2.8%9,and among the lowest in North America. The year-over-year increase in the prime taking or‘achievable’ rent in the region increased by 29%, more than in any other market in the world during thepast year.10 Rental-rate appreciation is expected to continue (albeit at a slower rate), which willsupport higher land valuations.11Metro Vancouver’s average industrial asking net rental rate hit a record 10.91 per sq ft in early 2018,up 15% from 9.50 psf just 12 months earlier. Vancouver ( 17.94 psf) and North Vancouver ( 15.30psf) were the most expensive, while Delta ( 9.01 psf) and Surrey ( 9.11 psf) were the lowest rates inthe region.12 Capitalization rates for industrial properties in the Metro Vancouver market range from3.75-4.75% for single tenant A buildings, to 4.00-5.00% for multi tenant B buildings. These rates are thelowest in Canada of major markets, with the next being Toronto, at 100 to 150 basis points higher.13This indicates strong demand; investors are willing to pay a premium, and thus accept a lower rate ofreturn, for industrial investments in Metro Vancouver compared to other city-regions in Canada.2.3 Industrial Demand by SectorMetro Vancouver is still showing a strong industrial forecast across all asset types and market areas.Warehouse/Distribution and Tech space appears to have the greatest likelihood of rent and tenantdemand appreciation.14 Last-mile delivery has also been a key focus, requiring well-located urbanlogistics space.15According to market reports: The majority of demand continues to be driven by distribution ofconsumer goods, food/beverage, building supplies, technology users and film production. In corelocations, increasing prices force a transition to more specialized light manufacturing, tech, office andshowroom-type uses. The change in Metro Vancouver’s competitive and constrained industrial marketis ahead of other Canadian markets and generating innovative building forms.16 Notably, a number ofthese uses are not conventional industrial, reflecting the changing nature of the economy and morenon-industrial uses on industrial lands.Also mentioned by broker interviewees were: small scale, artisanal businesses, such as custommanufacturing, small batch production, and food processing, some relating to the sharing economy,7Colliers - Metro Vancouver Industrial Market, Q2 2018Avison Young - Metro Vancouver, Industrial Overview, Spring 20189Colliers - Metro Vancouver Industrial Market, Q2 201810CBRE – Global Industrial & Logistics Prime Rents, 201811Avison Young - Metro Vancouver, Industrial Overview, Spring 201812Avison Young - Metro Vancouver, Industrial Overview, Spring 201813Colliers - Canada Cap Rate Report, Q2 201814Colliers - Advisor Sentiment Survey, Vancouver, Q1 201815CBRE – Global Industrial & Logistics Prime Rents, 201816Western Investor, Russ Bougie - Industrial real estate: Changes afoot, May 1 20188August 2018Page 4

White Paper: Stratification of Industrial Land in Metro Vancouversuch as facilities with common kitchens. Much of these businesses require small space, and are localserving, benefiting from close proximity to the consumer population.Growth also in tech companies in urban light industrial areas, noting the diverse types: high tech, biotech, software, and digital. These businesses often need high ceiling, studios, labs, storage, and power,with various activities including, R&D, packaging, and distribution on site -- industrial space meets theirneeds. Furthermore, different types of tech companies have different abilities to pay, in terms of bothwages and accommodations; most small and young companies cannot afford high rents and topurchase space.For logistics related activities, distribution models are shifting throughout North America. Instead of aretailer having a large regional distribution centre to serve several stores, the forecast for manyretailers includes fewer and smaller stores but additional warehouse facilities for return centres andsmaller pick-up facilities close to downtown centres, supported by a local distribution network.172.4 Unique Lands - Port and AirportLands located within Port of Vancouver (Port) and Vancouver International Airport (YVR) jurisdictionsare unique and not under municipal regulation, with market forces to some extent tempered by therespective roles and objectives of the agencies. With the duel functions of regulator and landlord, andin accordance with their respective federal mandates, these agencies consider more than financialfactors for leasing.Both authorities have Land Use Plans that facilitate various commercial and industrial activities, andthese portfolios are part of the regional real estate inventory. The Port and Airport facilitate amultiplicity of synergistic entities and activities, which reciprocate with the associated supply chainsand terminals. The facilities on Port and Airport lands may be associated with off-site distributionfacilities located within municipal jurisdictions on industrial lands, linked by truck drayage.In the case of YVR, the federal government is the landowner, with the Airport administering tenantleases. Airport lands thus cannot be stratified in a conventional sense. However, within 'Cargo Village'headquarters with over one million sq ft of cargo and warehouse space, smaller units are leased tomultiple tenants, including air carriers, freight forwarders, customs brokers, trucking and couriercompanies. Given lease rates, use restrictions, investment levels to support air cargo, and the scarcityof available sites, tenants tend to be limited to those that need to be located close to the terminal forspecific operational purposes. This includes integrators (such as UPS and FedEx) who require access foraircraft as well as Cargo Village tenants. For several cargo and logistics operators on Sea Island, thereare economies of scale in co-locating activities, such that more than half of the cargo tonnage transitingon Sea Island is truck-to-truck (i.e.: it is processed there by an operator that handles air cargo, but isnot transported by air).YVR and the Port encourage investments in infrastructure and intensification that support moreefficient use of lands and facilities to advance growth in capacity, some of which require significant17Western Investor, Russ Bougie - Industrial real estate: Changes afoot, May 1 2018August 2018Page 5

White Paper: Stratification of Industrial Land in Metro Vancouvercapital and long-term planning. However, at YVR some airside sites are height restricted owing torunway transitional surfaces, radar, and instrument landing systems, which limit densification of cargoand logistics buildings.In the case of the Port, lands are leased for the best value and user from the Port's perspective, ratherthan necessarily the highest financial value. Ground lease lengths can vary up to 60 years depending onthe scale of infrastructure and investment by the tenant. ‘Off dock’ lands typically must be occupied byusers preliminary engaged in the movement of goods through the Port. The head / master lease maybe 'owned' by an investor, such as a pension fund, who wants stability and regular revenue, with subtenant leases for shorter periods, and potential partitioning of buildings into smaller units, all subject toapproval by the Port.The Port Land Use Plan includes eight use designations across the Port’s 3,600 acre jurisdiction.Specifically, the industrial lands are in the form of two major categories: Port Terminals and Industrial(including ‘off dock’ uses such as logistics warehousing). The Port is active in land acquisitions,reviewing opportunities to purchase strategically important industrial lands, with the Land Use Planupdated accordingly.For YVR, the six Land Use Plan designations correspond to a hierarchy – with airfield taking precedence,followed by terminal and airside, then ground access, groundside, etc (there is no “industrial”designation, per se). Over time, as passenger numbers and aircraft movements grow, priority uses suchas runway and terminal will consume land (including future new runways) currently dedicated to otherpurposes (including cargo, logistics, and ground transportation) requiring these to relocate. Thus, whilethere may appear to be vacant land at YVR, much of it will be absorbed by the relocation of uses in thefuture.3 Extent of Industrial StratificationAccording to available figures for 2016, the Metro Vancouver commercial strata market recordednearly 700 million in total sales volume through approximately 600 transactions. The industrial marketrepresented 40% of the sales volume, followed by retail at 38%, and office at 22%.18The total square footage of strata space traded in 2016 reached 2.3 million sq ft. The industrial marketrepresented 62% of the area sold, followed by retail at 23%, and office at 15%.19There continues to be an increase in industrial stratification in Metro Vancouver, which is alsooccurring in the office and retail real estate markets. Whereas in other city-regions in Canada, based onlimited anecdotal input, strata industrial development and pre-sales does not seem to be aswidespread.1819Colliers - Metro Vancouver Commercial Strata Market Overview, Q1 2017Colliers - Metro Vancouver Commercial Strata Market Overview, Q1 2017August 2018Page 6

White Paper: Stratification of Industrial Land in Metro Vancouver3.1 Tenures of Industrial DevelopmentLike residential housing, strata is a form of tenure, and is distinct from fee simple ownership and rental/ lease with a tenant-landlord relationship that may be in the form of a multi-tenant building. As statedby the Province of British Columbia20:"A strata development can be buildings or land, divided into separate units, called strata lots.This allows for individual ownership of a strata lot. All the strata lot owners together own thecommon property as a strata corporation. The strata corporation is, in law, an artificial personthat can do everything of a legal nature that a real person can do."The corporation operates the property on behalf of the strata unit owners. Just like residential, asindustrial uses become more intense, a larger proportion of new developments are attached units, touse the land more efficiently. There need not necessarily be a significant physical difference betweenstrata and non-strata buildings. Attached units could either be all one property owned by a singlelandlord with individual units rented to multiple tenants, or stratified and owned by individualbuyers/businesses.From the onset, it is important to remember this distinction about tenure and form, while noting thatthey are often related. For example, many of the new developments are high density and strata. Intheory, these same developments could be high density and lease; however strata are generally highervalues than lease and thus could better support higher building construction costs associated withhigher density forms of developments.3.2 Industry Comments About Industrial StratificationGenerally speaking, the industrial real estate is made up of two types of markets: those that are strataowned and those that are not. There are differing opinions about strata within the industry21: “The strata market is alive and well, but I’m personally not a fan because it limits tenants,”said Jeff Miller, Vice President of Industrial in Oxford Properties Group. “Strata is uniquelyVancouver. It’s not as ingrained or important anywhere else.” For Lee Hester, Senior Vice President of Industrial Sales and Leasing at JLL and Beth Berry,Director of Industrial Development at Beedie Development Group, strata ownership allowssmall and medium sized business to grow, and creates a more stable market. “Strata is good thing for the industrial market,” said Hester. “We are an owner based city,we all want to own. It’s a Vancouver phenomenon.” According to Hester, 90% of industrialbuyers are businesses with less than 10 employees who prefer to live within 20 minutes oftheir property. “I love strata,” said Berry. “Strata buyers are typically private and family owned companieswith a succession plan, not big distribution companies who need flexibility to grow. Thesetypes of buyers make the market steady and strong.”These comments recognize the different perspectives on the needs and solutions for industrial tenants,and that different industrial developers have different investment objectives.2021BC Government - P Vancouver Chapter - Regional Industrial Cost Survey, Fall 2017August 2018Page 7

White Paper: Stratification of Industrial Land in Metro Vancouver3.3 Notable Strata Industrial ProjectsThere are a number of notable new higher density strata industrial development projects in the region.These profiles (Appendix C) are intended to provide a flavour of the new and increasingly commonforms of industrial and quasi-industrial strata development occurring in the Metro Vancouver region.The first few are conventional smaller-format and flex-space industrial buildings, with accessory office /mezzanine. The latter ones include significant or nearly entirely office and commercial uses, withlimited industrial uses. These profiles reflect the growing demand for both strata units, but also smallerindustrial units and with increasing amounts of accessory or non-industrial uses, and in many caseshigher densities, especially in the more urban locations.It is notable how some of these projects are marketed, with many references to the features of thework space and area amenities, which are desirable for workers.According to brokers, making buildings comfortable for employees has taken on increased significancein the current labour market. Tenants want amenities, including break rooms with games, televisionsand other leisure equipment, etc, to help attract and retain employees.22A number of these projects are by PC Urban, using the 'IntraUrban' brand for their projects, anddescribing them as such:23 It’s the perfect combination of location and design. At these prime locations, best-in-class architects and designers create brand new spacespecifically designed for the needs of business. With flexible unit sizes and attractive pricing, property ownership is now accessible to morebusinesses. Efficient interior space and contemporary storefront for increased warehouse and officepotential. Almost too good to be industrial.3.4 Growth of Industrial Strata DevelopmentBased on published market reports, most of which cover the industrial market in general, and a few byJLL and Colliers on the strata market in particular, below are relevant excerpts over the past two years.Statements from these publications provide a clear and consistent trend of both increasing supply andincreasing demand for strata industrial developments.201624 As one of the more stable of the commercial strata assets, the industrial strata market is largelyowner-occupied and has seen significant increases in demand over the last 24 months.22National Real Estate Investor, Patrick Kirk - What Industrial Tenants Want, July 27 2018PC Urban - https://intraurban.ca24Colliers - Metro Vancouver Commercial Strata Market Overview, Q1 201723August 2018Page 8

White Paper: Stratification of Industrial Land in Metro Vancouver Through 2016, the industrial strata market experienced 278 million in sales volume across 343transactions and 1.4 million sq ft. The majority of the volume occurred in Surrey (24%), Richmond(21%), and Burnaby (20%).Spring 201725 A low interest rate environment, rising lease rates, and a lack of industrial land are among thefactors pushing strata units to be sold at record prices. The weighted average price per sq ft hasincreased 69% over the past five quarters. Developers are actively building strata units to capitalize on high sales prices.Fall 201726 Comparing the weighted average price per sq ft of strata sales in the first half of 2016 to the firsthalf of 2017 for the region, prices increased 16%. The increase was even larger in some submarkets. Pre-sales illustrate demand - developers typically arrange contracts before construction iscompleted. And increasingly, more units might be pre-sold when the developer launches pre-sales.Spring 201827 This clear level of demand has led to an increase in the amount of strata developments in MetroVancouver, both planned and under construction. In Q2 2017, there were 9 developments under construction and 8 planned. In Q4 2017, there were11 developments under construction and 12 planned. Year-over-year increases in average weighted price in Metro Vancouver from 2015 to 2017 were39%.SummaryThis sentence summarizes the situations well:"With every strata development beingsold out before completion, it seemsthat developers really can’t build stratafast enough."28Source: JLL - Strata Market ReportMetro Vancouver, Spring 2018The chart shows the latest available summarydata for strata values in the region, as of thesecond half of 201729. Average industrial stratasales prices per sq ft were at 265, and muchhigher in Vancouver and North Vancouver.Since then, prices have further increased to the 400 range in some markets.25JLL - Strata Market Report Metro Vancouver, Spring 2017JLL - Strata Market Report Metro Vancouver, Fall 201727JLL - Strata Market Report Metro Vancouver, Spring 201828JLL - Strata Market Report Metro Vancouver, Spring 201829JLL - Strata Market Report Metro Vancouver, Spring 201826August 2018Page 9

White Paper: Stratification of Industrial Land in Metro VancouverAccording to Colliers’ most recent (as of August 2018) internal database of industrial developmentprojects in the Metro Vancouver region30 (limited historical data by tenure is available): In the construction stage, with completions in 2018 and 2019, there are currently 12 industrialstrata projects, representing 1.1 million sq ft of floor space. These projects range in size fromapproximately 50,000 sq ft to 250,000 sq ft. Strata represents 26% of the number of industrialconstruction projects in the region, and 28% of the floor space (total: 47 projects with 4.0 million sqft of space).The largest strata projects under construction are IntraUrban Rivershore on Mitchell Island by PCUrban at 256,000 sq ft, and Delta Link Business Park with two phases by Beedie totalling 248,000 sqft.In the planning stage, there are currently 11 industrial strata projects, representing approximately1.1 million sq ft of building floor space. These projects range in size from approximately 25,000 sq ftto 300,000 sq ft for the three-building Graybar Road Richmond complex by Beedie.3.5 Industrial Strata by GeographyBased on the latest market reports, below are some summary observations about the distribution ofstrata development activity by sub-region, and in some cases notable current projects.31Vancouver Hungerford’s two recent land acquisitions along Marine Drive (396 SW Marine Drive and 86 SEMarine Drive) marks the beginning of the transformation of this traditionally industrial area(although the form and tenure of these future developments are not yet known).32Burnaby Burnaby had the second highest year-over-year price increase (31%) amongst all the submarkets.Because of its immediate proximity to Vancouver, demand

3 Metro Vancouver - Metro Vancouver 2015 Industrial Lands Inventory, 2016 4 Colliers - National Dashboard Report, Industrial Metro Areas Population 1 Million, Q1 2018 5 Avison Young - Metro Vancouver, Industrial Overview, Spring 2018 6 Vancouver Sun, Evan Duggan - Industrial lease rate surge in

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