A Weekly Update From SMC 2013: Issue 363, Week: 25th .

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2013: Issue 363, Week: 25th - 28th MarchA Weekly Update from SMC(For private circulation only)Brand smc 188WISE MONEY

From The Desk Of 3Global stock markets came off in view of the worsening of Euro area debtconcerns. Cyprus lawmakers rejected the condition of putting levy onbank deposits for securing bailout. Euro Area largest economy, GermanyCurrency14saw investor confidence going at a three year high in March. Japanese centralIPO15bank new Governor Haruhiko Kuroda didn't indicate about the prospectiveFixed Deposit16measures to stimulate economy weighed on the sentiments. In U.S., the Federal17-18Open Market Committee meeting suggested that the accommodative policyMutual Fundwould stay till it yields the desired results in terms of the target growth andEDITORIAL STAFFEditorSaurabh JainExecutive EditorJagannadham ThunuguntlaBack at home, domestic markets that were already seeing the global pressure Editorial TeamDr. R.P. SinghVandana BhartiSandeep JoonVineet SoodDhirender Singh BishtParminder ChauhanMudit Goyalinflation for the economy.Nitin MurarkaTejas SethDinesh JoshiShitij GandhiSubhranil DeyAjay Lakratook a jolt after political uncertainty took center stage. Political uncertainty hascame into fore with the withdrawal of Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)support to United Progressive Alliance (UPA). The step taken by DMK sent shiversto the market igniting possibility of early polls this year. However at the sametime Finance Minister gave statement that the government is very much stableContent EditorGraphic DesignerKamla DeviPramod Chhimwaland they are looking at the concerns that its allies has put in forth. Politicalstability is the first and foremost point for any investor, be it domestic or foreignand it looks that markets would take some time to get the stock of the situationREGISTERED OFFICES:11 / 6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi 110005.Tel: 91-11-30111000, Fax: 91-11-25754365that where the government in power stands today. The major concern that hasMUMBAI OFFICE:Dheeraj Sagar, 1st Floor, Opp. Goregaon sports Club, Link RoadMalad (West), Mumbai 400064Tel: 91-22-67341600, Fax: 91-22-28805606political rift. Reserve Bank of India, as per expectations reduced Repo rate by 25KOLKATA OFFICE:18,Rabindra Sarani, Poddar Court, Gate No-4, 4th & 5th Floor,Kolkata-700001Tel : 91-33-39847000/39801300, Fax No : 91-33-39847004AHMEDABAD OFFICE :10/A, 4th Floor, Kalapurnam Building, Near Municipal Market,C G Road, Ahmedabad-380009, GujaratTel : 91-79-26424801 - 05, 40049801 - 03CHENNAI OFFICE:2nd Floor, Mookambika Complex, 4, Lady Desikachari Road,Mylapore, Chennai-600004Tel: 91- 44 - 39109100 Fax: 91- 44 - 39109111SECUNDERABAD OFFICE:206, 3rd Floor, above CMR Exclusive, Bhuvana Towers, S.D.Road,Secunderabad - 500003Tel: 91-40-30780298/99, 39109536DUBAI OFFICE:312, Belshalat Building, Al Karama, Dubai, P.O. Box 117210, U.A.E.Tel: 97143963120, Mobile : 971502612483Fax : 9714 3963122Email ID : pankaj@smccomex.comsmcdmcc@gmail.comcome is the reforms and pro-growth measures may take a back seat in light ofbps to 7.5% and at the same time giving statement that further monetary easingremains quite limited. Meanwhile important bill for Food Security got passed bythe cabinet just before going into polls.Moreover commodities are trading with mixed sentiments. Chairman Ben S.Bernanke signaled that Fed won't reduce stimulus until unemployment dropsfurther. Market didn't consider the statement as a game changer and thuscommodities traded in a range. But it helped gold to consolidate in a range. Crude isappearing weak as tensions over Iran's nuclear ambitions appearing to be easing andon mixed outcome of various economic releases. Data from the U.S. and China lentsupport to industrial metals and helped them to recover some weekly loss but it willbe too early to say that base metals will resume upside. Various important economicdata and events will give some direction to the commodities, which is trading in avague way. Some of them are durable goods, consumer confidence, personalPrinted and Published on behalf ofMr. Saurabh Jain @ Publication Address11/6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi-110005Website: www.smcindiaonline.comconsumption and Michigan confidence data of US, GDP of UK, Canada and US, CPI ofCanada, unemployment data of Germany etc.Investor Grievance : smc@smcindiaonline.comPrinted at: KOZMIC STYLE OFFSETD-137, Okhla Industrial Area, Phase-I, New Delhi - 110020 (India)Ph.: 91-11- 46251190, Email: Kozmic@consigliori.org(Saurabh Jain)

NEWSTREND SHEETDOMESTIC NEWSEconomy In its mid-quarter policy review, the Reserve Bank of India lowered its reporate to 7.50 percent from 7.75 percent and adjusted the reverse repo rate to6.50 percent from 6.75 percent. After declining for two months in a row, foreign direct investment (FDI) inIndia during January grew by eight percent to 2.15 billion from the 2 billionin January 2012. In November 2012, India attracted FDI worth 1.05 billion,which was a two-year low. Similarly, in December last year the inflowsdropped by 19 percent. Decline in foreign investments could put pressure onthe country's balance of payments and may also impact the value of rupee.Oil & Gas Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has made three significant discoveriesincluding two in the Krishna Godavari basin and one in Tripura. ONGC will set up a Re-gasification LNG terminal at New Mangalore Port. Theconsortium will carry out a Feasibility Study for a terminal of 2-3 MMTPAcapacity, expandable to 5 MMTPA.Realty & Construction Sadbhav Engineering has bagged a contract for four-laning of a road projectestimated at 1,210 crore. The project is to be executed on design-buildfinance- operate-and-transfer pattern under NHDP (National HighwaysDevelopment Project) Phase-III in the state of Haryana. Sadbhav Engineering has bagged a 382-crore order from NHAI for widening ofan 80-km stretch of NH-210 in Tamil Nadu.Telecom Bharti Airtel launched fourth generation (4G) long term evolution (LTE)services in Chandigarh, Mohali and Panchkula, in Punjab.Construction IL&FS Engineering and Construction Company Limited (IL&FS EngineeringServices), has received a letter of award for a buildings and structures projectfor a total value of 52.47 crore.Shipping Seamec has informed that the Vessel SEAMEC PRINCESS completed charterwith TechnipFrance Abu Dhabi. The company has entered into a charter partywith Kruez Subsea for charter hire of vessel for operation in the Far East. Thevessel is to be delivered to the client before end March 2013.Capital Goods Ingersoll-Rand (India) has informed that the new green field manufacturingfacility of the company in Mahindra World City, near Chennai was inaugurated.The new manufacturing facility will manufacture a wide range of equipmentincluding bus and truck air conditioners and commercial heating, ventilation andair conditioning products.INTERNATIONAL NEWS US leading economic index rose by 0.5 percent in February, matching therevised increase seen in January. Economists had expectation that the indexwill increase by 0.4 percent as compared to the 0.2 percent increaseoriginally reported for the previous month. According to a report released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), NARsaid existing home sales rose 0.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of4.98 million in February from an upwardly revised 4.94 million in January.Economists had been expecting existing home sales to climb to an annual rate of5.01 million from the 4.92 million originally reported for the previous month. US initial jobless claims edged up to 336,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previousweek's revised figure of 334,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to climbto 340,000 from the 332,000 originally reported for the previous week. Philadelphia-area manufacturers responding to a survey from the FederalReserve Bank of Philadelphia unexpectedly reported slight increases inbusiness activity in the month of March. A report released by the Philly Fedshowed that its diffusion index of current activity climbed to a positive 2.0 inMarch from a negative 12.5 in February, with a positive reading indicating anincrease in regional manufacturing activity. Hong Kong's consumer price inflation accelerated to the highest level in tenmonths in February. Inflation as per the consumer price index increased to 4.4percent in February from 3 percent in January, hitting the highest level sinceMay 2012, when prices rose 4.7 percent. Japan posted a merchandise trade deficit of 777.5 billion yen in February.However, the headline figure beat forecasts for a shortfall of 855.9 billion yenfollowing the downwardly revised deficit of 1,630.9 billion yen in January(originally 1,629.0 billion yen).STOCKSCLOSINGTRENDDATEPRICERATES1 R1S2R2CL.TREND 5.07.1253275830UP17.01.1368697050S&P NIFTYCNX ITCNX BANK716811238ACC112417539 1900018600182005700565068506750DOWN 21.03.13 112381180012000 12200DOWN 17.01.1312301260 13001359BHARTIAIRTEL298DOWN 14.02.13311320330335BHEL180DOWN 01.11.12227195205210CIPLA383DOWN 28.02.13360380390400DLF239DOWN 21.03.1323925526026588DOWN 07.02.13113100105110ICICI BANK1035DOWN 04.03.11172290285280HINDALCOITC104011001120 1130L&T1394DOWN 07.02.13149614501480 1530MARUTI1307DOWN 14.02.13148514001450 1480NTPC138DOWN 13.12.12151- 150- 155160ONGC298DOWN 21.03.13298315320325RELIANCE813DOWN 28.02.13814860870880TATASTEEL328DOWN 07.02.13390365380390NOTES:1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the nameof "Morning Mantra ".2) S1 & S2 indicate first support & second support respectively & R1 & R2 indicate first resistance and secondresistance respectively.3) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strengthcoming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis andtaking a long-term view and not a short-term view.FORTHCOMING EVENTSMEETING LAWRIE DIVIDEND23-APR-13HDFC ND26-MAR-13SBTINTERIM DIVIDENDAGM/DIVIDEND 1.20 PER SHARE26-MAR-13HEXAWARE26-MAR-13NATIONALUM INTERIM DIVIDEND 0.75 PER SHARE26-MAR-13RUCHIRAINTERIM DIVIDEND4-APR-13GLAXODIVIDEND 50 PER SHARE(PURPOSE REVISED)4-APR-13COLPALINTERIM DIVIDEND12-APR-13CASTROLDIVIDEND 3.50 PER SHARE12-APR-13HONAUTDIVIDEND 10.00 PER SHARE16-APR-13ABBOTTDIVIDEND 17.00 PER SHARE16-APR-13RAINCOMDIVIDEND 1.10 PER SHARE 4

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)SECTORAL INDICES (% 5.67BSESmallcapBSEMidcapNiftyJunior-7.58-10.00S&P CNX500-12.00SMC TrendNifty SensexBSE MidcapNifty JuniorBSE SmallcapS&P CNX 500-11.88-14.00Auto IndexBankexCap GoodsIndexConsFMCG IndexHealthcare IT Index Metal Index Oil & AL INDICES (% Change)SMC TrendAutoCap GoodsBankCons DurableRealty2.502.012.00FMCGHealthcareITMetalOil & GasPower1.50INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Equity) ( 0.00-1.36-1.50-1.56-1.80-2.00NasdaqComp.Dow JonesS&P 500SMC TrendNasdaqDow jonesS&P 500NikkeiStrait Times Hang SengShanghaiComp.FTSE 100146.60200.00CAC 400.00-200.00NikkeiStrait timesHang SengShanghaiUpDownFTSE 100CAC 40-400.00FridayBSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)-180.30 -159.80MondayFII yMF ActivityNSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% TCHind.UnileverBHELTata SteelLarsen &ToubroLupinITCHind. UnileverRanbaxy Labs.RelianceInfra.JP AssociatesIDFCDLFAmbuja Cem. 5

Beat the street - Fundamental AnalysisBIOCON LIMITEDCMP: 274.9VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value ( )5.0052 Week High/Low321.50 / 208.10M.Cap ( Cr.)5498.00EPS ( )17.90P/E Ratio (times)15.36P/B Ratio (times)2.42Stock ExchangeBSE% OF SHARE HOLDING in crParticularMar 2012Mar 2013E Mar 5.60628.85EBIT342.93379.13454.18Pre-Tax Profit392.51441.01512.33Net 62127.18142.75ROE15.7214.2914.69KPIT CUMMINS INFOSYSTEMS LIMITEDVALUE PARAMETERSFace Value ( )2.0052 Week High/Low142.00/73.80M.Cap ( Cr.)1983.91EPS ( )9.52P/E Ratio (times)10.81P/B Ratio (times)2.27Stock ExchangeBSE% OF SHARE HOLDING in crParticularRevenueEBITDAEBITPre-Tax ProfitNet ProfitEPSBVPSROEMar 20121,600.01216.58172.09188.64145.358.0860.4121.85 Mar 2013E Mar arget Price: 344Investment Rationale The company foresees sustained growth byincreasing investments in Research andDevelopment (R&D) during the next 4-5 years. Italso believes that its revenues could be doubled to 4,000 crore by 2018 by such investments. As afirst step the company has made 57 percentincrease in R&D investment during 2012-2013. Thecompany envisages growth through organic andinorganic mode over the next 5-6 years. The company expects its manufacturing and Researchand Development (R&D) facility in Iskandar Malaysiato be operational by the end of 2014. The facility willbecome a production base not just for Southeast Asia,but also for the global market. Biocon Ltd has partnered with Mylan of the US fordeveloping and marketing three generic insulinproducts - Lantus, Lispro & Humalog and NovoLog.Mylan, the generic drug manufacturer, estimates themarket for the three products at 11.5 billion globally. It has signed an agreement with Bristol MyersSquibb of the US for its oral insulin new drugcandidate IN-105. Under the agreement, BristolMyers Squibb will have the right to exercise anoption to obtain an exclusive worldwide licence tothe programme. It will conduct clinical trials uptothe completion of Phase II. If the US firm exercisesthe option to licence IN-105 after successfulcompletion of Phase II trial, Biocon will receive alicence fee in addition to regulatory andcommercial milestone payments and royalties oncommercial sales outside India. Biocon will retainthe exclusive rights to IN-105 in India. Biocon Ltd has plans to introduce a drug, AlzumabCMP: 102.90P/E ChartTarget Price: 139Investment Rationale KPIT Cummins Infosystems had made eightacquisitions between 2003 and 2010 that helpedthe company grow inorganically. The company hasplans to continue to look for potential acquisitiontargets within its three focus areas - automotiveand transportation, manufacturing and energyand utilities. The company provides product engineering andinformation technology services to top globalautomobile majors, including Daimler, GeneralMotors and Chrysler. With the focus as achieving more value out of ITinvestments, Cummins will continue to invest intransformational projects and other strategicinitiatives, thus providing KPIT Cummins withrelevant opportunities for long-term engagements. The company is targeting 1 billion in revenues inthe next four years. It is expecting growth to comefrom multiple areas, mainly from the automotiveengineering segment. Overall, managementexpects strong growth out of Asia and Germany,while the US will also continue to grow. During the quarter ended December 2012, therewas a good growth in the top customers as its top 5and top 10 customer accounts grew by 46.4% and43.1% respectively on a Y-o-Y basis. Sequentiallythis growth rate stood at 3.9% and 2.8%respectively. The Company revised the PAT guidance for Q4 onUpside: 25%for the treatment of psoriasis in Jul-Sep 2013 aftergetting regulatory approvals from the DrugsController General of India (DCGI). The company isexpecting the drug to add revenue of 100 crore inthe next four years. It is also looking for a partnerin the US to carry out clinical trials and sell theproduct in the international market.ValuationThe company has a strong balance sheet with low debtand high cash balance. The company has maintainedsteady growth over the years and is expected tomaintain sustainable growth going forward on the backof aggressive investment in R&D, new product launchand expanding geographical reach through partnershipswith regional biotechnology firms in the US, Europe,Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Mexico,Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey.We expect the stock to see a price target of 344 in oneyear time frame on a three year average P/E of 18.25xon FY14 (E) EPS of 18.86.Upside: 35%the back of better realization coupled with theEBIDAT expansion. Company's net profit forquarter ended December 2012 is seen up 15 percent at 53.08 crore from 46.12 crore in previousquarter. Revenues are seen at 5,44.49 crore,down 4 per cent, as compared to 567.2 crore in aquarter ago.ValuationThe management is seeing growth opportunities inmajority of its key customers though there remainfew accounts where there has been a pressure on theIT budgets. The management also said the marketswill continue to provide opportunities to succeed as itbuilt and offered more focused and differentiatedpropositions.On the estimated FY14E EPS of 12.81 and CurrentP/Ex of 10.81x, we expect the stock to see a pricetarget of 139 in one year time frame.P/BV ChartAbove calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1 year.Source: Company WebsiteReutersCapitaline6

EQUITYBERGER PAINTSThe stock closed at 192.30 on 21st March 2013. It made a 52-week low at 102.65 on 29th March 2013 and 52-week high of 212.65 on 12th March 2013.The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chartis currently at 106.25.As we can see on the chart, uptrend is intact and it is forming a sort of flagformation, which is bullish continuation in nature. On the contrary, indicatorsare in overbought condition, which may lead to a marginal fall but overallsentiment of this particular scrip is bullish. A dip could be considered a buyingopportunity, which will increase its probability to reach our desired targets. Onecan Buy in the range of 187-189 levels with closing below stop loss of 180 levelsfor the target of 205-210 levels.Hathway Cable & Datacom LimitedThe stock closed at 260.05 on 21st March 2013. It made a 52-week low at 153on 26th April 2012 and 52-week high of 306.80 on 19th December 2012. The 200days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart iscurrently at 186.71.After a marginal fall, it again started its upward journey by forming a fresh pivotat lower levels. In the recent weeks, it has negated the volatility of broaderindex and traded in a range to sustain at current levels, which determines itsstrength.One can Buy in the range of 255-257 levels with closing below stop lossof 246 levels for the target of 270-275 levels.Pidilite Industries LimitedThe stock closed at 263.35 on 21st March 2013. It made a 52-week low at 153.55 on 19th July 2012 and 52-week high of 273.90 on 19th March 2013. The200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart iscurrently at 153.19.As we can see on the chart, it is in uptrend and has continued its momentum byforming a “pennant”, which is considered to be bullish. Moreover, it has negatedthe downward trend of broader index seen in past few weeks. One can Buy in therange of 260-262 levels with closing below stop loss of 251 levels for the target of276-282 levels.Charts by Spider Software India Ltd Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months7

DERIVATIVESWEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKETNifty underperformed its global peers in the March series. The index witnessed a breakdown from levels of 5800 with rise in volatility index indicating weaknessand fear in the market sentiments. Equity markets down traded last week on the back of good volume indicating distribution. Put call ratio of open interestdecreased and closed below 1.00 at 0.80 levels. Among call options, the options concentration is highest at 6000 strike and 5800 strike with 90 lakh shares and80 lakh shares which suggests resistance at these levels. The options, open interest concentration of puts shifted to the 5600 strike put option with openinterest of above 80 lakh shares. Implied volatility (IV) of call options closed higher at 15.55% while the average IV of put options ended at 15.72%. Hereafterthe range of 5800-5500 will remain crucial in the near term. The Nifty has sustained below the crucial resistance of 5700. Short term indicators are indicatingdownward momentum to continue for the next support around 5550 levels.DERIVATIVE STRATEGIESBULLISH STRATEGYVOLATILITY STRATEGYWIPROBuy MAR.440 CALL 4.50OPTIONSTRATEGYLot size: 1000BEP: 444.50Max. Profit: UnlimitedMax. Loss: 4500.00 (4.50*1000)HDFCBuy MAR 800 CALL 8.25Buy MAR 780 PUT 3.50RELIANCEBuy MAR 820 CALL 7.35Buy MAR 800 PUT 5.45Lot size: 500Upside BEP: 811.75Downside BEP: 768.25Max. Profit: UnlimitedMax. Loss: 5875.00 (11.75*500)Lot size: 250Upside BEP: 832.80Downside BEP: 787.20Max. Profit: UnlimitedMax. Loss: 3200.00 (12.80*250)JINDALSTEL (MAR FUTURE)FUTURESTRATEGYBATAINDIA (MAR FUTURE)SUNPHARMA (MAR FUTURE)Buy:Above 356Buy:Above 723Sell:Below 822Target: 365Target: 738Target: 803Stop loss: 352Stop loss: 716Stop loss: 831BASIS GAP IN NIFTYNIFTY TOTAL OPEN INTEREST (in 15-MarFIIs ACTIVITY IN F&O IN LAST TEN SESSIONSFIIs ACTIVITY IN F&O IN LAST WEEK(Derivative segment) (Cr)(Derivative r14-Mar15-Mar18-Mar19-Mar20-Mar21-Mar 8

DERIVATIVESNIFTY ANALYSISNIFTY & IV CHART590016Put Call Ratio Analysis : The Put-Call open interest ratio of Nifty has decreasedto 0.80 from 1.39. At the end of the week, the maximum stocks had a negative ofchange in put call open interest ratio.15Implied Volatility Analysis : The Implied Volatility (IV) for Nifty futures this weekhas increased to 15.55% from 13.83%. The IV of the stock futures has changed thisweek ranging from -5.97% to 16.71%.58001457001356001215-Mar18-Mar19-MarNifty Close20-Mar21-MarIVOpen Interest Analysis : The open interest for the index at the end of this weekhas decreased by 3.43% as compared to the previous week. All future stocks sawchanges in their open interest ranging from -19.38% to 25.58%. SAIL has themaximum increase in open interest as compared to other stocks.Statistical 4.45IMPORTANT INDICATORS OF NIFTY AND OTHER ACTIVE FUTURE CONTRACTSOPEN EK6561000PCR ED 2.518.45RCOMRELIANCES&P CNX NIFTY 9

SPICESBULLIONSTurmeric futures (Apr) is likely to remain stable taking support above 6500levels. Bulk buyers have received reasonable orders for the yellow spicefrom North India and more upcountry orders are expected to come. AtErode, sales will be conducted only for four days for the rest of the monthas markets is closed for Holi and Good Friday this week. Jeera futures (Apr)is expected to face resistance near 13550 levels, pressurized by bearishsentiments of spot markets. Arrivals are likely to gather pace in Rajasthanmarkets after the festival of colours. Meanwhile, the fundamentals of thecompeting countries reveals that sowing in Turkey and Syria has started,but sowing report will be out after one week. Cardamom futures willprobably plunge further downside as supplies continues to outweighdemand. As of now, harvesting is over & the current arrivals are beingreleased from the stocks held by the growers. The individual auctionaverage is quoting near 661.61/kg. Pepper futures are expected to remainsideways in the range of 34500-36500 levels. Selling pressure owing torising arrivals from Karnataka & Kerela is pressurizing the spot market.Chilli futures (Apr) might consolidate in the range of 6500-7100 levels,cushioned by buying support from exporters & stockist. On the supply side,in Guntur area output is expected around 70-75 lakh bags with carryforward stock around 20 lakh bags.OIL AND OILSEEDSMustard futures (Apr) is expected to face resistance near 3500 levels on heelsof rising arrivals across spot markets in the major producing regions. Daily allIndia arrivals have reached about 5.60 lakh bags. In Rajasthan, the seedsupplies are in full swing in Kota division, while it is yet to pick up in Bharatpurand Alwar. Soybean futures might consolidate taking support above 3450levels, on the back of restricted selling by farmers, in anticipation of higherprices. The preference of the meal of Indian origin mainly by the South Easterncountries due to logistic and freight advance will lend support to the domesticsoy meal. On the international market, U.S. Soybean futures might go foranother round of consolidation weighed by concerns of slowing down demandfrom China & U.S. processors. Moreover, the advancement of South Americansoybean harvests and expectations for Brazil and Argentina stockpiles to floodthe export market with cheaper supplies may keep the upside capped. CPOfutures are likely to face some downside pressure due to higher availability.There are reports that huge quantity of crude palm oil, edible oil, palm oil,crude soya bean oil are scheduled to reach Indian ports soon. Spot markets arewitnessing slack demand as stockist are away from fresh buying ahead of fiscalyear end. On the international platform, market participants are keeping aneye on export demand after Malaysia retained export tax for the crude gradeat 4.5% for a second month in April.The euro zone crises reignited by the events taking place in Cyprus, may givethe much needed support in form of safe haven buying to the bullionscounter. Meanwhile Federal Reserve last week pressed forward with itsaggressive policy stimulus despite improvements in the U.S. economy,pointing to still high unemployment, fiscal headwinds out of Washington andrisks from abroad. Fed reiterated that it planned to keep interest rates nearzero until the jobless rate falls to 6.5 percent as long as inflation did notthreaten to pierce 2.5 percent over a one to two year horizon. Dollar indexwhich has seen steep upside from 79 to 83 is facing resistance near83.6.Gold prices can trade in the range of 1590-1645 in COMEX and in therange of 29300-30200 in MCX. In near term weakness in local currency rupeecan cap the downside in bullions. Local currency rupee can trade in therange of 53.8-55 in near term. White metal silver can trade in the range of53000-56500. Gold silver ratio can hover in the range of 54.4-55.5. Eurozone ministers urged Cyprus to let smaller savers escape a levy on bankdeposits, before a parliamentary vote on Tuesday. Meanwhile geopoliticaltensions also support safe haven demand in bullions. The market place iskeeping an eye on developments coming out of North Korea, which issuedfresh threats of a possible nuclear strike against U.S. bases in Japan.ENERGY COMPLEXCrude oil prices are expected to remain on extreme volatile path as on the onehand Middle East tensions and better economic data from US are supportingthe prices while on the other hand euro zone crises can cap the upside. Crudeoil can trade in the range of 4900-5200 in MCX and 90 - 96 in NYMEX. U.S.crude and refined product inventories fell last week on lower imports. Crudeinventories dropped by 1.31 million barrels in the week to March 15, comparedwith expectations for a rise of 2 million barrels. The fall came as crude importsdecreased by 219,000 barrels per day to 7.27 million bpd. Meanwhile theemployment situation is improving in US as number of Americans filing newclaims for unemployment benefits dropped for a third straight week, which isthe latest indication that the labor market recovery was gaining traction. Thespread between Brent and WTI crude has been shrinking recently as itnarrowed from nearly 23 in February to below 15. According to API “U.S. oildemand in February slid to the weakest for that month in 20 years” Colderweather conditions will continue to assist natural gas prices higher as they cantest 224 in MCX. Weather forecasts continued to poi

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