Washington Electric Aircraft Feasibility Study - November 2020

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Aviation DivisionNOVEMBER 2020WashingtonElectric AircraftFeasibility StudyPrepared by

This page intentionally left blank.WSDOT Aviation Division

NOVEMBER 2020WashingtonElectric AircraftFeasibility StudyPrepared forAviation DivisionPrepared byIn conjunction withWashington Electric Aircraft Feasibility Study November 2020

Table of ContentsAcknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Chapter 1: Environmental Impacts, Economic Benefits, and Incentives. . . . . . . . . . . . 25Section 1: Mode Shift Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26Section 2: Employment Profiles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31Section 3: Framework for Assessing Economic Impact of Electric Aircraft on Airports . . . . . . . . . . . . 42Section 4: Environmental Benefit Framework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51Section 5: Airport Revenue Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61Section 6: Electric Aircraft Funding Opportunities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62Section 7: Recommendations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70Chapter 2: Transportation Network Assessment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72Section 1: Existing Intermodal Network. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76Section 2: Existing Air Connectivity Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93Section 3: Travel Time Cost Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100Section 4: Recommendations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106Section 5: Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107Chapter 3: Workforce Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108Section 1: Aviation Workforce Development Programs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112Section 2: State Government Programs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119Section 3: Covid-19 Impacts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121Section 4: Recommendations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121Chapter 4: Infrastructure and Battery Charging. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124Section 1: Considerations for Charging Infrastructure for Electric Aircraft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126Section 2: Current Technologies Being Deployed. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127Section 3: Pilot Program Infrastructure Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131Section 4: Hypothetical Scenario. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133Section 5: Next Steps for Infrastructure Electrification. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134Chapter 5: Demand and Deployment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136Section 1: Electric Aircraft Demand Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136Section 2: Deployment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163Section 3: Recommendations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171Section 4: Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172Chapter 6: Selection of Beta Test Site Airports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173Section 1: Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174Section 2: Phase I: Baseline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179Section 3: Phase II: Points Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183Section 4: Phase III: Assess Results. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192Section 5: Phase iv: Utility Coordination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206Section 6: Recommendations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213WSDOT Aviation Division

Acknowledgements Aerospace Futures Alliance AeroTEC Andrew Graham Aircraft Consulting Avista Utilities Center for Excellence in Aerospace and Advanced Manufacturing Community Air Mobility Initiative Department of Commerce Diamondstream Partners Elcon Federal Aviation Administration Greater Seattle Partners Joby Aviation Kenmore Air Kitsap Aerospace Defense Alliance magniX National Business Aviation Association National Renewable Energy Laboratory Pierce County Puget Sound Energy Seattle Tacoma International Airport Stellar Aerospace The Boeing Company University of Washington Verdego Aero Volta Enterprises Washington State University Wenatchee Pangborn Memorial Airport Zunum Aero WSP Kimley Horn PRRWashington Electric Aircraft Feasibility Study November 20201

Executive SummaryBackgroundFor more than a century since Boeing Plant #1 opened in Seattle in 1917, WashingtonState has been at the forefront of the aerospace industry. Electric aircraft, includingunmanned aerial systems (UAS) and electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft,represent the next frontier for aviation. These technologies have the potential to reducethe cost of flight, provide new options for passenger and cargo air transport in congestedurban areas and hard-to-serve rural communities, reduce the environmental footprintof aviation, and grow jobs and the economy. In order to ensure Washington retains itsleadership in the aerospace industry, it is important to consider and plan for these comingtechnologies.The state legislature tasked the Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT)Aviation Division with forming the Electric Aircraft Working Group (EAWG) in 2018 toexplore electric aircraft service across the state. The EAWG comprises over 30 membersrepresenting state and local government, airports, manufacturing, the FAA, pilots, energyutilities, and consultants. Engrossed Substitute House Bill 2322 gave clear direction to actupon a key recommendation of the EAWG’s 2019 Working Group Report to commissionthis Electric Aircraft Feasibility Study (Feasibility Study) to provide a roadmap for policymakers, airports, industry, and the general public to facilitate the growth of the electricaircraft industry by reporting on the following key elements: Infrastructure requirements necessary to facilitate electric aircraft operations atairports Potential economic, environmental, and other public benefits Potential future aviation demands catalyzed by electric aircraft Workforce and educational needs to support the industry Available incentives to industry to design, develop, and manufacture electric aircraft Impacts to Washington’s existing multimodal transportation networkMethodologyResearch for this report was conducted over several months in 2020. The research focusedon five scenarios, shown in Table e.1, regarding the types of aircraft and purpose of flight.These include small aircraft with capacity of 15 or fewer passengers, light cargo, and pilottraining. Input was provided by 16 interviews with the EAWG, two half-day workshopswith EAWG, and analyzing numerous research reports and datasets.2WSDOT Aviation Division

Table e.1: Electric Aircraft Operations and Use CasesUse CaseRegional CommuterDescriptionCompaniesCarrying 1-4 passengers closer to50 mile rangeJoby, Bell, Hyundai, JauntCarrying up to 9 passengers forscheduled operationsAmpaire, Eviation, magniXGA/Personal Business1-6 passengers, average flight time43 minutesPipistrel, Bye AerospaceLight Air CargoMaximum payload of 7500 lbs,cruise speed around 200 mphAmpaire, magniXPilot Training1 pilot and 1 passenger, cruisespeed around 125 mphPipistrel, Bye AerospaceLess than 5 passegersRegional CommuterLess than 15 passengersKey FindingsThe following summarizes the key findings of the report:1. Infrastructure Readiness: The key infrastructure needs for airports will occur onthe airside to provide power and charging capabilities for electric aircraft. As withelectric automobiles, adoption of electric aircraft will require pilots to be confidentthat their aircraft charging and maintenance needs can be met at the airports theyutilize. This will require coordination of charging standards to ensure that aircraftof different size, capability, and from all manufacturers can utilize airport chargingequipment.Battery swapping rather than plug-in charging has several benefits includingreducing turn-around times while charging, obviating the issue of different chargingstandards types that have impacted electric automobile charging interoperability,reducing demands on the energy grid since a lower rate can be utilized whencharging speed is not critical. However, the FAA would need to approve batteryswapping procedures as it could be considered a major repair or alteration, whichwould make this option less feasible.The increased electric infrastructure needs of electric aircraft will also need to bebalanced with other new landside electric demands including transportation andheating and cooling (HVAC). Early engagement with utility companies is neededto ensure capacity is not a constraint for aircraft charging. FAA safety and securityapproval is another critical path to both standardization and implementation oftechnologies.2. Economic Impact: The deployment of electric aircraft for passenger and cargotransport may have several effects on the economy. Reducing the time and cost forpeople and goods to travel, particularly over short and congested routes, will helpcreate business activity and jobs. Lower-cost flight will enable also help connectthe rural areas of the state with employment centers along the I-5 corridor. Thesmaller carbon footprint of electric aircraft will reduce net emissions and theenvironmental and health costs. Quieter aircraft have the potential to reduce thenegative externalities of aviation. In addition, the major investments needed to scaleWashington Electric Aircraft Feasibility Study November 20203

Executive Summaryup power systems and airport infrastructure, as well as the financial impacts onairports, must be also be considered.Quantifying these affects is problematic and requires making numerous assumptionsabout the timing of aircraft, the cost of flight, and the future change in the cost,time, and environmental impacts of ground transportation alternatives. Therefore,this study provides a framework for quantifying economic impacts that that can beadjusted as data becomes available.a. Economic Impacts: As detailed in the demand analysis of this report, electricaircraft have the potential to increase flight activity and encourage growth onand off-airports that will support jobs and create business revenues. The 2020WSDOT Aviation Economic Impact Study (AEIS) found that airports directlyemployed over 83,000 workers in 2018. These jobs support other businessesthat are patronized by aviation workers, along with visitor and constructionspending enabled by aviation. Including these multiplier effects, airports(excluding Sea-Tac) generate over 255,000 jobs in Washington, 19 billion inlabor income, and nearly 85 billion in business revenue. The multipliers in thestudy can be utilized to calculate the downstream effects on the economy asmoney related to aviation cycles through the economy due to growth created byelectric aircraft.While the operation and maintenance of electric and hybrid-electric requiresmany of the same labor and skills needed to operate and maintain conventionalaircraft, the aviation industry workforce will witness some variation inemployment and skills needed to operate and maintain electric aircraft.b. Reduced Emissions: Although aviation represented just 0.46% of emissionsin Washington State according to a 2014 Washington Department of Ecologystudy, and 2.4% of global CO2 emissions, its footprint is growing rapidly dueto increased demand for air travel. In addition, high-altitude emissions havebeen shown to have a greater effect on climate change than surface emissions,doubling the impact of aviation. Calculating the reduction in emissions due toelectric aircraft is highly complex. Conventional aircraft are becoming morefuel efficient, sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) have the potential to decreaseclimate impact, and government regulation and public pressure on businesses tobe greener are all key factors affecting future emissions. Furthermore, electricenergy is only as clean as the source of production. Here, Washington State hasan advantage, with 69% of net generation provided by hydroelectric power –though rising overall demand will likely require scaling up other sources.c. Funding Opportunities: The cost to provide infrastructure to support electricaircraft at airports is unknown, but could be considerable. Existing state andfederal grant and loan programs can help mitigate part of the developmentcost, but funds will need to be identified at the local level to supportsupplying the infrastructure needed to charge aircraft and improve energysupplies. While some of the funding options may not be directly applicableto airport infrastructure, there may be instances in the future in which publictransportation and advanced air mobility infrastructure and facilities, forexample, may be combined. Hence, a range of funding opportunities that maybe applicable now or in the future are provided for consideration. The reportidentifies numerous options, shown in Figure e.1, but these are likely to provideonly part of the funds needed.4WSDOT Aviation Division

Incentivizing growth in the electrical aircraft industry will require participation from public and private entities.Collaboration across stakeholders, including energy providers and distributers, the transport industry, airports, theenvironmental community, universities, all levels of government, and the general public, will facilitate growth.Creativity in utilizing current funding programs and collaboration in creating new ones will be essential. The figuresummarizes existing funding and financing opportunities that serves as a starting point for planning investment inelectrical aircraft. These opportunities are detailed below.ForDeFigure 4.7 Electric-Aircraft Funding OpportunitiesFigure e.1 Electric Aircraft Funding OpportunitiesUSDOT ProgramsState Funding Programs Better Utilizing Investments to Leverage Development(BUILD) grant program Infrastructure for Rebuilding America (INFRA) grant program Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act(TIFIA) program Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality Improvement (CMAQ)Program Tax-exempt Private Activity Bonds (PABs) Airport Aid Grants ProgramRegional Mobility Grants ProgramGreen Capital Opportunity ProgramCommunity Economic Revitalization Board (CERB) FundingPrograms Washington State Freight Mobility Strategic Investment Board(FMSIB) State Program Washington State Department of Revenue (DOR) Tax credits andexemptions Community Aviation Revitalization Board (CARB) Loan ProgramFederal Funding Programs VALE (Voluntary Low Emissions) ProgramZero Emissions Airport Vehicle and Infrastructure ProgramVolkswagen Clean Air Settlement’s mitigation trust fundFAA Continuous Lower Energy, Emissions, and Noise(CLEEN) Program Green revolving funds (GRFs)Private SectorFundingOpportunities Incentivizing research and development Washington’s network of entrepreneursand investors Public-Private Partnerships (P3)3. Demand Assessment: Demand for passenger flights on electric aircraft is dependentupon several factors. These include the following:a. Organic demand for air travelFor89b. Availability of electric aircraft of various the sizes and range – with key factorsshown in Figure e.2c. Induced demand for short-haul trips that are not feasible today but could be inthe future if electric aircraft drive down costs as predicted and eVTOL increasethe departure points available, particularly in congested urban areas.Figure e.2 Factors Affecting Electric Aircraft DemandCost toTravelersState /FederalRulemakingBatteryCapacity lableInfrastructure RoutesWashington Electric Aircraft Feasibility Study November 20205

c.Induced demand for short-haul tripsthat are not feasible today but couldbe in the future if electric aircraftdrive down costs as predicted andeVTOL increasedeparture pointsExecutivetheSummaryavailable, particularly in congestedurban areas.e existing Washington State Aviation Systeman (WASP) provides forecasts through 2034.The existing Washington State Aviation System Plan (WASP) provides forecaststhrough 2034. A detailed Transportation Network Assessment was developed todetailed Transportation Network Assessmentassess demand for airport-to-airport trips within Washington and to nearby states/s developed to assess demand for airport- provinces.airport trips within Washington and toAs shown in Figure e.3, electric aircraft are forecast to start increasing air taxi &arby states/provinces.commuter passengers as soon as 2025, with dramatic growth after 2032. Air carrierpassengers will see a less significant impact since larger electric aircraft will competeshown in the figure, electric aircraft are or substitute for existing aircraft rather than induce new short-haul routes.Figure 4: Enplanement Forecastsecast to start increasing air taxi &mmuter passengers as soon as 2025,Figure e.3 Enplanement Forecaststh dramatic growth after 2032. Airrrier passengers will see

this Electric Aircraft Feasibility Study (Feasibility Study) to provide a roadmap for policy makers, airports, industry, and the general public to facilitate the growth of the electric aircraft industry by reporting on the following key elements: Infrastructure requirements necessary to facilitate electric aircraft operations at

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