FUTURE VALUE CHAIN - The Consumer Goods Forum

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FUTURE VALUE CHAINIndustry Initiatives Address Challenges of the Digital World and the Fight for Resources2022

AcknowledgmentsThe Consumer Goods Forum thanks the following executives for their time, support andvaluable insight into the “Future Value Chain 2022” report.Workshop ParticipantsEmerging Trends Steering CommitteeMadeleine Apel, Metro GroupNigel Bagley, UnileverNigel Bagley, UnileverSaliha Barlatey, NestléBelinda Bonazzi, World Economic ForumJerry Black, AeonPaul Cole, CapgeminiStefano Borghi, HeinekenPriscilla Donegan, CapgeminiGordon Farquhar, Alliance BootsCindy Drucker, Weber ShandwickJim Flannery, Procter & GambleJim Flannery, Procter & GamblePeter Florenz, HenkelPeter Florenz, HenkelCorey Glickman, CapgeminiXavier Franco, Johnson & JohnsonRuediger Hagedorn, The Consumer Goods ForumMark Fratamico, HenkelKees Jacobs, CapgeminiChristophe Geoffroy, CarrefourJohn Jove, PepsiCoBrian Girouard, CapgeminiMika Kobayashi, AeonCorey Glickman, CapgeminiMarissa Nelson, Ahold USACameron Green, GS1 GlobalHeinz Pfeiffer, Metro GroupRuediger Hagedorn, The Consumer Goods ForumJohn Phillips, PepsiCoBernard Helders, CapgeminiAlejandro Pintado, BimboKees Jacobs, CapgeminiClaire Revis, Royal AholdJoel Jones, Dow ChemicalSabine Ritter, The Consumer Goods ForumJohn Jove, PepsiCoAkikazu Sato, Kao Corp.Michael Law, Johnson & JohnsonKoshiba Shigeru, Kao Corp.Juergen Matern, Metro GroupThomas Storck, Metro GroupRichard Muisener, EvonikMaria Paola Vetrucci, Barilla GroupAmy Pascal, Johnson & JohnsonClyde Pereira, Coca-ColaCo-Chairs, Emerging Trends Steering CommitteeFlorian Peter, MandalahThomas Storck, Metro GroupJohn Phillips, PepsiCoPeter Florenz, HenkelAlejandro Pintado, BimboSabine Ritter, The Consumer Goods ForumSebastian Schilling, HenkelCo-Sponsors, The Consumer Goods ForumBoard of DirectorsJay Schwartz, nextLifeOlaf Koch, CEO, Metro GroupThomas Storck, Metro GroupKasper Rorsted, CEO, Henkel2 Future Value Chain 2022

ContentsForeword 04Management Summary 061 Scanning the Trends08Identifying the Trends that Matter Most2 Focusing on Value Impact16Translating Ideas Into Initiatives3 Planning for Action20Driving Industry Change4 Conclusion and Next Steps26Appendix: The Process Behind the Project283

ForewordWith so many critical issues and challengesfacing the consumer goods and retail industry,how do we identify those that matter most?Those that will have the greatest impact oncompanies going forward? Those that can bestbe addressed by collective action frommanufacturers and retailers in our industry?4 Future Value Chain 2022

These questions lie at the heart of The Consumer GoodsForum’s Emerging Trends Strategic Pillar. The pillar is a thinktank designed to gain a deeper understanding of emergingtrends and to subsequently translate this into concrete actions.Emerging trends are defined as those changes gaining agreater long-term prominence, set to continue over the nextfive to 20 years, and those that concern major issues with asignificant effect on, and relevance for, the industry.The Impact of Megatrends: DigitalWorld and Fight for ResourcesTo answer the questions posed here, The ConsumerGoods Forum (CGF) enlisted the assistance of more than200 consumer goods and retail executives, together withCapgemini and Roland Berger. The Emerging Trends/FutureValue Chain group engaged in an exhaustive process thatconsisted of desk research, an online survey, a crowdsourcingexercise and a facilitated workshop. Consumer Engagement Protocol: develop a code ofconduct for digital engagement with consumersDesk research: The process began with extensive deskresearch. To develop an initial list of relevant, long-term trendsRoland Berger studied more than 200 trends reports fromleading research institutes, NGOs and think tanks, includingthe previous “Future Value Chain” reports of The ConsumerGoods Forum.Online survey: To prioritize the trends, CEOs and theirstrategic teams from both consumer goods manufacturersand retailers provided their views via an online survey thatconsidered both trend relevance and business impact forthe industry.Crowdsourcing: To dig deeper into the trends and captureadditional ideas, Capgemini and CGF reached out toindustry executives and experts as part of an online socialcrowdsourcing exercise.Workshop: Following the crowdsourcing, Capgeminiconducted a facilitated workshop with industry executives toqualify the ideas, validate them against existing CGF activities,translate them into initiatives for collaborative action and buildhigh-level action plans.This process ultimately led us to focus on two key megatrendsthat will significantly impact consumer goods and retailcompanies in the coming years: Digital World and Fight forResources.We also selected three related initiatives for action: Next-Generation Product Identification: transformproduct identification and information Sustainable Packaging Consortium: improve thesustainability of packaging across the different value chainstagesThis report — which is the latest in the “Future Value Chain”series — takes a close-up look at these megatrends andtheir implications for the industry, and presents the initiativesand their associated action plans. We invite you to join theseinitiatives to help ensure a strong “Future Value Chain” thatcan more efficiently and effectively serve consumers andshoppers around the world.Olaf KochKasper RorstedCEO, Metro GroupCEO, HenkelCo-Sponsors, Board of Directors, The Consumer Goods ForumThomas StorckPeter FlorenzMetro GroupHenkelCo-Chairs, Emerging Trends Steering CommitteeTwo key megatrends willsignificantly impact consumergoods and retail companies inthe coming years: Digital Worldand Fight for Resources.5

Management SummaryDigital World and Fight for Resources.There’s no denying the importance of thesemegatrends. But many other trends also affectthe consumer goods and retail industry. Whyselect these two?6 Future Value Chain 2022

Digitization is changing consumers’ lives and hence theirshopping behavior, which affects the “moments of truth,”the critical points when shoppers make their choices. Theyexpect to find information through multiple channels anddevices — and they expect to find it quickly. They are lookingfor consistency and convergence among different technologies.And they expect more transparency into product information,availability and price. Sustainable Packaging Consortium: improve thesustainability of packaging across the different value chainstages. The fight for resources is broad in scope and not allelements can be addressed at once, but the industry hasthe ability to affect aspects of the issue, particularlypackaging. This project is designed to establish a coalitionof companies to work together to improve the sustainabilityof packaging.At the same time, demand for resources like food, water andenergy is rising rapidly, particularly as increasing economicprosperity in emerging countries puts pressure on the world’secosystem. As global demand for resources rises, accessbecomes more competitive, with the potential for demand tooutstrip easily available supplies in the next decade.An action plan has been developed for each initiative,including elements such as a description of the initiative,rationale, value and impact, and critical success factors.Through the course of the Emerging Trends/Future ValueChain project, these two trends stood out as having thepotential to significantly alter the industry landscape. Inaddition, they were not already being addressed by TheConsumer Goods Forum’s other Strategic Pillars.The following pages provide more detail on the megatrends,their anticipated impact on the consumer goods andretail industry in the coming years, and the initiatives forcollaborative industry action.Initiatives to Drive Change“Future Value Chain 2022” on the WebTo begin to address these two megatrends the EmergingTrends/Future Value Chain team identified three key initiativesfor collaborative action:More information about this report and the Consumer Engagement Protocol: develop a code ofconduct for digital engagement with consumers. This projectis designed to address the technology-driven changes beingwitnessed in consumer behavior. The project is focused onidentifying potential risks and opportunities and establishingguidelines for digital engagement to ensure that initiatives wedrive, as an industry, do not compromise our reputation.Emerging Trends Strategic Pillar can befound at www.FutureValueChain.com andwww.TheConsumerGoodsForum.com. Next-Generation Product Identification: transformproduct identification and information. Today, in a world ofrapidly expanding online commerce solutions, barcodes areunable to provide consumers with the rich digital productinformation they seek. This project is designed to identify asolution to this issue.7

Scanning the TrendsIdentifying the Trends that Matter MostThe consumer goods and retail industry is affected by issues ranging fromsocial developments like our aging society and urbanization, to environmentalconcerns like sustainability, and changing consumer behavior such as the digitallifestyle and personalization. The overall objective of the Emerging Trends/FutureValue Chain project was to identify concrete collaborative (non-competitive)industry actions to respond to the most significant of these trends.The first step was an extensive trends analysis of more than 200 reportsfrom leading research institutes, NGOs and think tanks. This resulted in theidentification of 20 trend clusters comprising a total of 84 subtrends (Figure 1,pages 10 and 11). The list ranged from Health Awareness (including subtrendssuch as the growing private market for health products and services, andthe convergence of industries like healthy cosmetics and functional foods)to Entertainment Society (with subtrends including the increasing demandfor entertaining and unconventional POS, and the growing number of peopleplaying games online).8 Future Value Chain 2022

9

Figure 1: Trends Analysis Identifies 20 Trend Clusters with 84 Subtrendshealth awarenessfight forresourcesenvironmentaldegradationenvironmental sustainabilityincome shift2022digital worldtop 20 trendsopen datainformed consumersregulationsmultipolaritymobilitynew socialstructuresscarcity of talenturbanizationsocialresponsibilityburden of agingnew workingfemaleshiftpersonalizationentertainment society10 Future Value Chain 2022

figure 1: Subtrends1. Health Awareness11. MobilityGrowing private market for health products and servicesStronger engagement of society in health issues and healthy productsGrowing share of population suffering from illnessesConvergence of industries (healthy cosmetics, functional food)More time spent for transportation during work and private lifeRising wish for individual mobility services that are publicly availableGrowing number of people relocating more often and farther awayRising number of migration flows2. Environmental Sustainability12. UrbanizationRising demand for sustainably produced goodsRising desire for products that are reusable, durable and recyclableGrowing need to use carbon-friendly/renewable energy sourcesMore private and standalone energy generation (solar panels)Increasing number of people living in urban areasDecreasing average household sizeGreater anonymization of society and need for new social safety netsMore agricultural usage in urban areas of developing countries3. Fight for Resources13. New Social StructuresRising world energy demand and energy price levelsGreater limitation and speculation of fossil fuels/scarce resourcesGrowing need for food and water security in developing countriesGrowing need for strategic partnerships to secure resource accessMerging of real and virtual relationships and lifestylesMore people connect in online communities of shared interestsPersonal relationships and communities change more frequentlyPeople have fewer close friends and more acquaintances/loose contacts4. Environmental Degradation14. Social ResponsibilityIncreasing exploitation of scarce resourcesOngoing climate change and more severe natural disastersGrowing total volume of non-degradable wasteIncreasing awareness of collateral damage on speciesStronger request for corporations to fulfill obligations of societyMore importance on showing social/environmental impact (CSR reports)Increasing desire for fair-trade productsIncreasing image impact of good-cause initiatives for firms5. Income Shift15. Burden of AgingNew middle-class customers in developing countriesIncreasing income gap between lower- and upper-income classesDemand polarization/focus on price-value ratio (lacking mid segment)Increasing demand for ownership-free products (pay-by-usage)Aging of society and labor force in developed countriesGrowing cost pressure on public health sectorIncreasing willingness of healthy and consuming elderly to spendIncreasing need for firms to cover aging-induced costs of society6. Digital World16. New WorkingConvenient product buying through digitalization (mobile commerce)Rising usage of digital devices at point-of-sale (augmented reality)Growing demand for simple technology with intuitive interfacesIncreasing adoption speed of new technologiesConnectivity of products and more add-on services (smart TV)Increasing workload leads to growing convenience shoppingIncreasing flexibility of business resources such as labor and ITIncreasing demand for job hopping and shorter employment cyclesGrowing decentralization of firms into networks of autonomous units7. Open DataGrowing amount of interrelated and meaningful dataGreater availability and access to data and knowledgeGrowing difficulties to protect private dataGreater usability and exploitation of consumer information for firmsGreater transparency of corporate processes (track and trace)8. Informed ConsumersIncreasing information exchange between firms and customersIncreasing price and value transparency for consumersOpinions more influenced by peer-to-peer referrals (social media)Growing desire to fully understand product/service (customer experts)Customer dissatisfaction spreads faster and has stronger impact9. RegulationsStrengthening of regulations that protect scarce resourcesGrowing involvement of NGOs in public affairsGlobal collaboration of institutions leads to stronger regulationsMore restrictions on product range from regulations (choice editing)Greater standardization of products and business processes10. Multipolarity17. Scarcity of TalentIncreasing requirements for new skills that employees need for workingScarcity of skilled labor in developed countriesGreater need to build international workforceRising number of highly educated employees in developing countries18. Female ShiftIncreasing influence of women on family consumption decisionsIncreasing number of women workingIncreasing number of highly educated women in workforceGrowing demand for work-and-family programs19. PersonalizationIncreasing demand for personalized product and service offeringsDecreasing willingness to accept concessions in product choiceGrowing demand for personally influenced items (crowdsourcing)Growing desire for unique products20. Entertainment SocietyIncreasing demand for entertaining and unconventional points-of-saleGrowing importance of experience as added value to productsGrowing number of people playing games onlineGrowing of trade within countries and regionsShifting economic power to developing countriesGrowing demand for locally produced goodsIncreasing legislative protectionism in global tradeIncreasing interdependencies of marketsSource: The Consumer Goods Forum, Roland Berger11

Prioritizing Megatrends forCollaborative ActionLet’s take a closer look at these megatrends.While a case can be made that each of these trend clusterswill affect the industry in the coming years, we wanted toidentify from this long list those likely to have the greatestimpact and that could be addressed through collaborativeaction in the consumer goods and retail industry. Severalactivities were undertaken to achieve this objective: An online survey was conducted among CGF membercompanies to assess the relevance and monetary impact ofeach identified subtrend. Expert interviews provided an external view of the relevanceof trends in the consumer goods and retail industry to helpprioritize areas for collaborative, non-competitive industryactions. Working sessions were held to help further define the areasfor the development of collaboration action.These activities led to the selection of five prioritized trendclusters — or megatrends (Figure 2). As part of the processwe considered the potential impact of each megatrend on theindustry and raised related key questions.01 Health and WellnessAs consumer knowledge about health and wellbeing grows,so does interest in healthy consumption and products, withproduct and service offerings evolving to support this interest.Among the factors driving the interest in health and wellnessare increasing life expectancy and the rising number ofolder people.The potential impact on the industry of the health andwellness megatrend will be significant. For example, theselling of “healthy products” may become more challengingas consumers demand improved transparency and includenew decision criteria such as sustainable production in theirproduct selection process. At the same time, the industrymay benefit from the evolution of new categories, for exampleby including more functional food products and healthycosmetics in assortments.In light of these developments, how should companiesrespond to consumers’ need for increased transparency andeducation about health topics in order for consumer goodsand retail to become a “healthy” industry?Figure 2: Five Megatrends with Highest Relevance for the ConsumerGoods and Retail IndustryNew product andservice offerings evolveto support growingnumber of individualswho feel moreresponsible for healthyconsumption andhealthy productsHealth &WellnessAccess to resourcesgets more difficult asdemand from economicprosperity and a risingmiddle class inemerging countriesincrease pressure onthe world’s ecosystemFight ForResourcesSource: The Consumer Goods Forum, Roland Berger12 Future Value Chain 2022Awareness ofenvironmentaland social impact ofconsumption continuesto get more important aspeople gain transparencyand require new levels ofsustainable businessoperations fromcorporationsSustainabilityNew digital devices andubiquitous, alwaysavailable informationchange consumptionhabits and provide newopportunitiesfor corporations tointeract with consumersDigitalWorldSupported by newtechnologies and highereducational levelsemployees’ flexibilityincreases andcorporations arerequired to adapt tonew ways of working inorder to retain talentFutureWorking

02 Fight for Resources04 Digital WorldEconomic prosperity and a rising middle class in emergingcountries is increasing the pressure on the world’s ecosystem,including the growing need for food and water security. Inaddition, as global demand for resources like food, water andenergy rises, access becomes more competitive and pricesmay increase. Factors such as ongoing climate change andmore severe natural disasters are also affecting the supplyof resources.New digital devices support ubiquitous and always-availableinformation and enable companies to interact with customersacross more touchpoints. Key factors driving this megatrendinclude the increasing adoption speed of new technologies,the growing amount of interrelated and meaningful data, thegreater usability of private data and the growing difficulty ofprotecting this information.This megatrend has the potential to affect the consumergoods and retail industry in a number of ways. Consumers willincreasingly expect companies to use the latest technologyfor reducing waste of natural resources. And businesses willneed to consider new types of partnerships (for example,public/private) to secure access to resources. In addition,the industry will have the opportunity to play a vital role insecuring the nutrition supply in developing countries.In this environment, how can the industry ensure that peoplereceive and maintain access to increasingly scarce resourcesand that these resources are distributed fairly?03 SustainabilityAwareness of the environmental and social impact ofconsumption continues to rise, leading consumers to lookfor greater transparency, more sustainable operations,and sustainably produced and fair-trade products frombusinesses. The importance of using reusable andrecyclable material to reduce waste is also increasing. Anadditional aspect of this megatrend is the rising demandfor firms to contribute monetarily to society and to supportgood-cause initiatives.The industry impact may be substantial as consumers andemployees become more educated about environmental andsocial issues and require credible transparency. In addition,corporate social responsibility initiatives will be evaluatedmore critically. The industry as a whole will need to be moreaware of its “social footprint” on both a global and regionallevel, as instances of misconduct could have a significantimpact on businesses.With this increased focus on sustainability, how can theindustry efficiently provide (and transparently communicateabout) long-term care for people and the environment?Industry implications include the challenge of managingthe rapidly growing information exchange betweenbusinesses and customers, and the increasing price andvalue transparency demanded by buyers. Consumer goodsand retail companies will see their businesses affected astechnology startups drive innovation and set new standards,for example in retail processes. Image building will need to befar more credible due to the heightened level of transparencyand “open data culture.” At the same time, there will beopportunities to adopt new technologies for efficiency gains.In light of these digital developments, how can businessesfurther simplify consumers’ daily lives through newtechnology? How can companies handle new optionsand requirements through data transparency (forexample, by providing clear, uniform and accurate digitalproduct information)? And how will this trend impactexisting regulations?05 Future WorkingTechnological advances will foster new approaches to flexible,digital working. At the same time, access to qualified labormay become more difficult in some markets as requirementsfor higher skill levels increase, resulting in a battle for talent.The labor pool will also evolve due to the growing number ofolder workers and highly educated women in the workforce.These trends will likely continue to drive a growingdecentralization of businesses into networks of autonomousunits. Changes in the ways of working will require companiesto focus more on so-called “soft skills,” interpersonalskills that dictate how people interact with others. Imagedriven employer branding around topics like social andenvironmental impact will become more important. Thedemand for flexible working solutions will drive the industry tomake changes to its technological infrastructure and hence itswork/life balance models.As the ways of working evolve, how can companies attract,maintain and develop top talent and future leaders for theconsumer goods and retail industry?13

Factors Affecting the Potentialfor Collaborative ActionNarrowing Down the Trends: DigitalWorld and Fight for ResourcesThese megatrends should not be considered in isolation;they are affected by a wide range of factors, includinginterdependencies and regional differences. Numerouslinks exist between the different megatrends, potentiallydriving complexity and conflicts and affecting the potentialfor collaborative action. For example, the increasinglongevity of people implies a greater demand for resources,demonstrating a link between Health and Wellness and Fightfor Resources. Employees’ interest in the “social footprint” ofcompanies highlights the connection between Sustainabilityand Future Working. And digitally improved businessprocesses might reduce resource waste, reflecting a linkbetween Fight for Resources and Digital World.A key aspect of the analysis was to investigate whether anyof the five megatrends were already being addressed bythe other CGF pillars. In fact, existing activities within theSustainability, Safety and Health, and Operational ExcellenceStrategic Pillars are focused on trends like Sustainability,Health and Wellness, and Future Working.As a result, Digital World and Fight for Resources wereselected by The Consumer Goods Forum Board of Directorsas the priorities to be addressed by the Emerging Trends pillar.After identifying the two megatrends on which to focus, thenext step was to consider how best to address these trends.A number of ideas stood out, as we’ll see in the next section.In addition, the relative impact of the trends may varydepending on regional characteristics or industry sector. Forexample, some developing markets face a shortage of skilledworkers, which presents a challenge for companies trying toexpand internationally. However, the same situation might notexist in mature markets.digitalworld6 digitalworldfight for resources14 Future Value Chain 2022

These megatrends should not be consideredin isolation; they are affected by a wide rangeof factors, including interdependencies andregional differences.15

Focusing on Value ImpactTranslating Ideas Into InitiativesWhile the first stage of the Emerging Trends project involved a broad scan oftrends, the second stage was all about focus. We wanted to dig deeper into thetwo selected megatrends and develop corresponding initiatives that could beacted on collaboratively by the industry.We began with a “crowdsourcing” process (see sidebar, page 18) to capturenew and additional ideas related to the two megatrends and to assess theirvalue impact. This was followed by a workshop focused on translating theseideas into initiatives and developing corresponding concrete action plan proposals.16 Future Value Chain 2022

Seven Ideas Stand Out From the CrowdThe online crowdsourcing approach, which included expertsfrom inside and outside our industry, uncovered dozens ofideas, which were grouped into seven categories related tothe two megatrends.Digital World1. Value chain transparencyNew technologies will increase demand for transparencyof companies’ complete value chain, from sourcing topackaging and distribution. Only those companies that canshow a sustainable value chain will be competitive in the longrun. Value chain transparency is not only a critical enabler forimproved supply chain agility, it also links different domainsthat currently are often disconnected, such as B2B, B2C,C2B and C2C.In the context of today’s rapidly evolving digital world,a number of critical questions related to value chaintransparency need to be considered, including how toleverage the connected – or “smart” – environment for anew quality of individual customer service, how to ensureconsumers get the “right” information, how to ensure aconsistent experience for consumers and how to sharestewardship of master data.2. New ways to listen and learn from consumersIn the digital world, companies face major strategicchallenges such as using technology-driven opportunities tounderstand consumers more deeply and connect with themmore effectively and more often. The development of newcapabilities like digital-marketing analytics to keep pace withthe digital consumer will be a critical success factor in thisenvironment. This involves all digital channels that consumersand shoppers use in their “path to purchase.”This raises key issues for the industry, including how to buildtrust with consumers via standardization of informationrelating to product descriptions and ingredients; how toaddress increasing consumer expectations; how to work withconsumer forums to solve issues via open platforms; andhow to ensure that accurate data is being delivered by newintermediaries like app providers.17

3. How to solve the “consumer insights vs. privacy”issue/trusted digital consumer engagementPhysical retailers have long been confronted with privacyregulations when it comes to analyzing customer interactiondata and using it for individualized service. As digital shoppinggrows, consumer awareness and concern about privacy ine-channels is increasing as well.Trust is an essential element in addressing this issue, buthow should the industry go about establishing trust withconsumers in the digital world? A key idea raised wasthe importance of self-regulation rather than governmentregulations. This might come in the form of a “code ofconduct” to ensure consistency in how companies engagewith consumers or the development of a common “digitalpersona” database or “universal digital profile.”Fight for Resources4. Collaborative work on standards and processesfor sourcing and reusing packagesConsumer goods companies and retailers need to worktogether on solutions for reducing and reusing packaging,including developing standards regarding the environmentalimpact of packaging and products. Key considerations inaddressing this issue include going beyond reducing CO2 andgaining a better understanding of the waste streams.5. Collaborative incentive and reward systems toreduce, reuse and avoid using resourcesChanges need to be made to the traditional incentive andreward systems, which are based on the assumption thatprogress and performance should be measured largelythrough financial metrics. But what if managers were alsocompensated on the broader improvement of the business(such as sustainability criteria), not just profitability? Thisincludes new metrics and KPIs for the future supply chain(CO2 emissions reduction, reduced energy consumption,waste reduction). These metrics need to become more visibleand require senior-level ownership to drive them down to a

Michael Law, Johnson & Johnson Juergen Matern, Metro Group Richard Muisener, Evonik Amy Pascal, Johnson & Johnson Clyde Pereira, Coca-Cola Florian Peter, Mandalah John Phillips, PepsiCo Alejandro Pintado, Bimbo Sabine Ritter, The Consumer Goods Forum Sebastian Schilling, Henkel Jay Schwa

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