Transitioning To A Zero Or Near-Zero Emission Line-Haul .
Transitioning to a Zero or Near-Zero EmissionLine-Haul Freight Rail System in California:Operational and Economic ConsiderationsFinal ReportPrepared for:State of California Air Resources BoardByUniversity of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignRail Transportation and Engineering Center (RailTEC)1245 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, MC-250205 North Mathews AvenueUrbana, IL 61801Spring 2016
Transitioning to a Zero or Near-Zero Emission Line-Haul Freight Rail System in California: Operational andEconomic ConsiderationsThe statements and conclusions in this report are those of the contractor andnot necessarily those of the California Air Resources Board. The mention ofcommercial products, their source, or their use in connection with materialreported herein is not to be construed as actual or implied endorsement ofsuch products.iiRailTEC
Transitioning to a Zero or Near-Zero Emission Line-Haul Freight Rail System in California: Operational andEconomic ConsiderationsTable of ContentsSummary. xiLocomotive Technology. xiLine-Haul Freight Interoperability . xiiLine-Haul Freight Operations.xiiiEmissions Benefits .xiiiLocomotive Costs . xvExchange Point Operations and Capital Costs. xvExchange Point Delay and Mode Shift . xviFuel and Energy Supply Cost Reductions .xviiTotal Costs. xviiOverall Findings of the Captive Fleet Scenarios . xixNorth American Deployment Scenarios . xixConclusions . xx123Introduction. ation .3Zero and Near-Zero Locomotive Technology.42.1Considerations for New Technologies .42.2Tier 4 Diesel-Electric with After-Treatment .82.3Liquefied Natural Gas .102.4Battery Tenders .142.5Solid-Oxide Fuel Cell .182.6Electrification .192.7Linear Synchronous Motor.212.8Summary .22Line-Haul Freight Rail Operations, Interoperability and Safety .243.1California Line-Haul Rail Network.243.2Line-Haul Rail Network in Southern California .263.3Network Interoperability .283.4Safety.33iiiRailTEC
Transitioning to a Zero or Near-Zero Emission Line-Haul Freight Rail System in California: Operational andEconomic Considerations456789Line-Haul Freight Rail Traffic and Energy Requirements . 344.1Statewide Rail Traffic Data . 344.2South Coast Basin Rail Traffic Data . 374.3South Coast Train Traffic from Waybill Data . 394.4Locomotive Requirements . 444.5Baseline Energy Requirements . 474.6Summary . 48Emissions Benefits in South Coast Basin. 495.1Energy and Fuel Consumption of Alternative Technologies . 495.2Local Emissions Factors. 505.3Annual Emissions Benefits in the South Coast Basin . 51Locomotive Capital, Energy Supply Infrastructure and Maintenance Costs. 546.1Locomotive Fleet Size with Locomotive Exchange. 546.2Equipment Capital Cost. 586.3Energy Supply and Delivery Infrastructure . 596.4Heavy Locomotive Repair and Central Maintenance Shop . 616.5Annual Locomotive Maintenance Expense . 616.6Summary . 63Exchange Point Process, Infrastructure and Costs . 647.1Exchange Point Process and Time Requirements . 647.2Design Train Flow Rates . 697.3Conceptual Design . 727.4Locomotive Exchange Point Yard Capital Cost. 757.5Exchange Point Servicing Infrastructure Capital Cost . 887.6Exchange Point Operating Cost . 887.7Summary . 88Exchange Point Delay Cost and Modal Shift. 908.1Methodology . 908.2Cost of Train Delay at Exchange Points. 948.3Mode Shift and Lost Revenue . 968.4Emissions Considerations of Mode Shift . 988.5Summary . 103Benefits of Improved Efficiency and Alternative Sources on Energy Supply Costs . 1049.1Energy and Fuel Consumption of Alternative Technologies . 1049.2Energy Cost Factors . 105ivRailTEC
Transitioning to a Zero or Near-Zero Emission Line-Haul Freight Rail System in California: Operational andEconomic Considerations9.310Annual Energy Supply Cost Benefits in South Coast Basin .105Other Considerations .10810.1Employment and Relocation of Servicing Personnel .10810.2Shift of Diesel Fuel Supply.10810.3Run-Through Foreign-Line Locomotives .10910.4Pooled California Fleet .10910.5Network Configuration and Operating Plan .11010.6Operational Flexibility and Recovery .11111Summary of Technology Deployment Scenarios .11211.1Total Annual Non-Capital Cost .11211.2Total Capital Cost .11311.3Total Present Value Cost .11511.4Emissions Benefits per Unit Cost .11611.5Summary of Alternative Locomotive Technology Scenarios .12012Qualitative Assessment of State-Wide Deployment Scenario .12312.1General Capital Cost Considerations .12312.2General Annual Non-Capital Cost Considerations .12312.3Scenario-Specific Considerations.12413North American Deployment Scenarios .12613.1Locomotive Technologies for North American Deployment.12713.2Details of North American Deployment Scenario .12713.3Emissions Benefits in the South Coast .12813.4Locomotive Capital and Maintenance Cost .12913.5Benefits of Improved Efficiency and Energy Supply Costs .13013.6Present-Value Cost.13213.7Emissions Benefits Outside the South Coast .13613.8Summary of North American Deployment Scenarios .13714Conclusions.139References. 141Abbreviations and Acronyms .149vRailTEC
Transitioning to a Zero or Near-Zero Emission Line-Haul Freight Rail System in California: Operational andEconomic ConsiderationsList of Figures and TablesTable S.1: Potential Percent Emissions Reduction Control Levels from Tier 4 Baseline forNorth American Deployment .xiiiFigure S-1, Potential reduction in South Coast line-haul locomotive emissions from Tier 2baseline .xivFigure S-2, Potential reduction in South Coast line-haul locomotive emissions from Tier 4baseline .xivTable S.2: Assumed Capital Cost of Locomotives and Tenders ( million/unit) for SouthCoast Scenarios (and North American Deployment Scenario) . xvFigure S-3, Potential reduction in South Coast line-haul locomotive emissions from Tier 2baseline after mode shift to truck .xviFigure S-4, Potential reduction in South Coast line-haul locomotive emissions from Tier 4baseline after mode shift to truck .xviiFigure S-5, Annual locomotive energy/fuel cost to South Coast exchange points . xviiiFigure S-6, Total of capital and present value costs for the South Coast scenarios . xviiiFigure 2-1, Potential locomotive deployment scenarios including (a) current conventionaloperations, (b) low-emissions operation in air basin with dual-mode locomotives and (c)low-emissions operation in air basin with dedicated locomotives and exchange point . 7Table 2.1: Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) - (Mankins, 1995) . 8Table 2.2: 2013 Source Generation Profile of California Electricity Consumption (EIA) . 15Figure 2-2, Dual-mode battery tender operation concept . 17Figure 3-1, Map of line-haul freight rail network in California. 25Figure 3-2, Map of line-haul freight rail network in Southern California . 27Table 4.1: Historical Rail Traffic in Million Gross Tons (MGT) and Trains per Day (TPD) onKey Routes in California. 35Table 4.2: Distribution of California Rail Shipments by Origin/Destination Region, 2007Commodity Flow Survey . 35Table 4.3: California Rail Shipments by Commodity (AAR, 2010) . 36Table 4.4: Historical Rail Traffic in Trains per Day (TPD) on Routes Transiting the SouthCoast Basin (Caltrans, 2008; Leachman, 2011). 37Table 4.5: Average Trains per Day in 2013 by Train Type on Routes Transiting the SouthCoast Basin . 38Table 4.6: BNSF and UP Distribution of Train Configuration in percent by Train Type onRoutes Transiting the South Coast Basin. 39Table 4.7: STCC Codes and Descriptions Corresponding to Value-Based CommodityGroups Used in the Study . 41Table 4.8: South Coast Basin Rail Shipments in 2011 by Commodity Group and ShipmentDistance (Thousands of Tons) . 42Figure 4-1, Example derivation of empty railcar movements with empty railcar ratio . 44viRailTEC
Transitioning to a Zero or Near-Zero Emission Line-Haul Freight Rail System in California: Operational andEconomic ConsiderationsTable 4.9: Horsepower per Trailing Ton by Railroad and Train Type .44Table 4.10: Average Train Speed in Miles per Hour by Type (Railroad PerformanceMeasures, 2013).46Table 4.11: Baseline Conventional Locomotive Fleet Size and Allocation by Route .47Table 4.12: Annual Train Energy Consumption within South Coast Basin by Route.48Table 5.1: Annual South Coast Alternative Locomotive Energy and Fuel Consumption .50Table 5.2: Local Emissions Factors for Locomotives .51Table 5.3: Annual South Coast Basin Alternative Locomotive Emissions (pounds) .52Table 5.4: South Coast Alternative Locomotive Emissions (% Reduction from Tier 2) .52Table 5.5: South Coast Alternative Locomotive Emissions (% Reduction from Tier 4) .52Figure 5-1, Potential reduction in South Coast line-haul locomotive emissions from Tier 2baseline . 53Figure 5-2, Potential reduction in South Coast line-haul locomotive emissions from Tier 4baseline . 53Figure 6-1, Impact of locomotive exchange on fleet size and train paths .54Table 6.1: Required Locomotive Fleet Size and Allocation by Route .56Table 6.2: Required Tender Fleet Size and Assignment by Route .57Table 6.3: Capital Cost of New Technology Locomotive and Tender Fleets ( million).59Table 6.4: Required Route-Miles of Electrification and LSM Infrastructure .60Table 6.5: Capital Cost of Energy Supply and Delivery Infrastructure ( million) .60Table 6.6: Capital Cost of Heavy Locomotive Repair Shop ( million) .61Table 6.7: Assumed Annual New Technology Locomotive Expenses .62Table 6.8: Annual New Technology Locomotive and Catenary Maintenance Expenses .63Table 7.1: Timing of Simulated Locomotive Exchange by UP at Rochelle, Illinois .66Table 7.2: General Locomotive Exchange Times for Different Distributed PowerConfigurations .68Figure 7-1, Sample time-space diagram of train movements on the UP Yuma Subdivisionnear Indio, California .70Table 7.3: Design Train Flow Rates on Routes Transiting the South Coast Basin.71Table 7.4: Design Train Flow Rates at Prospective South Coast Basin LocomotiveExchange Points.71Figure 7-2, Locomotive exchange point conceptual design schematic .73Figure 7-3, Exchange point operations on paired “herringbone” exchange tracks .74Table 7.5: Prospective South Coast Locomotive Exchange Point Size .74Table 7.6: Prospective South Coast Locomotive Exchange Point Yard Capital Costs .75Figure 7-4, Preliminary Oxnard exchange point layout .76viiRailTEC
Transitioning to a Zero or Near-Zero Emission Line-Haul Freight Rail System in California: Operational andEconomic ConsiderationsFigure 7-5, Preliminary Palmdale exchange point layout . 77Figure 7-6, Preliminary Yermo exchange point layout . 78Figure 7-7, Preliminary Barstow exchange point layout . 79Figure 7-8, Preliminary Indio exchange point layout . 80Figure 7-9, Preliminary Oceanside exchange point layout . 81Table 7.7: Oxnard Exchange Point Yard Capital Cost Estimate . 82Table 7.8: Palmdale Exchange Point Yard Capital Cost Estimate . 83Table 7.9: Yermo Exchange Point Yard Capital Cost Estimate . 84Table 7.10: Barstow Exchange Point Yard Capital Cost Estimate . 85Table 7.11: Indio Exchange Point Yard Capital Cost Estimate . 86Table 7.12: Oceanside Exchange Point Yard Capital Cost Estimate . 87Table 7.13: Servicing Infrastructure Capital Cost ( million). 88Table 8.1: Components of Railroad Delay Costs (Lovett, 2015) . 93Table 8.2: Locomotive Configurations and Exchange Delay Times by Train Type. 95Table 8.3: Annual Train and Locomotive Delay at Exchange Points . 95Table 8.4: Annual Railcar Delay at Exchange Points . 95Table 8.5: Annual Direct Cost of Train Delay ( millions) . 96Table 8.6: Annual Freight Shift from Rail to Truck (tons). 97Table 8.7: Railroad Revenue ( ) per Ton-Mile by Commodity Group. 97Table 8.8: Annual Lost Railroad Revenue Due to Modal Shift to Truck ( million) . 97Table 8.9: Annual Rail vs Highway Truck Emissions for Freight Shifted from Rail (lbs) . 98Table 8.10: Combined Annual South Coast Basin Alternative Locomotive Emissions andTruck Emissions for Rail Shipments Shifted to the Highway Mode (pounds). 99Table 8.11: South Coast Alternative Locomotive Emissions and Truck Emissions for RailShipments Shifted to the Highway Mode (% Reduction from Tier 2 Baseline). 99Table 8.12: South Coast Alternative Locomotive Emissions and Truck Emissions for RailShipments Shifted to the Highway Mode (% Reduction from Tier 4 Baseline). 100Figure 8-1, Potential reduction in South Coast line-haul locomotive emissions from Tier 2baseline after mode shift to truck . 100Figure 8-2, Potential reduction in South Coast NOx emissions from Tier 2 baseline with andwithout mode shift to truck due to exchange points. 101Figure 8-3, Potential reduction in South Coast line-haul locomotive emissions from Tier 4baseline after mode shift to truck . 102Figure 8-4, Potential reduction in South Coast NOx emissions from Tier 4 baseline with andwithout mode shift to truck due to exchange points. 102Table 9.1: Annual Incremental Energy/Fuel Consumption to Exchange Points . 104Table 9.2: Annual Locomotive Energy/Fuel Consumption to Exchange Points . 105viiiRailTEC
Transitioning to a Zero or Near-Zero Emission Line-Haul Freight Rail System in California: Operational andEconomic ConsiderationsTable 9.3: Annual Locomotive Energy/Fuel Cost to Exchange Points ( million) .106Table 9.4: Change in Annual Locomotive Energy/Fuel Cost to Exchange Points .106Figure 9-1, Annual locomotive energy/fuel cost to South Coast exchange points .107Table 11.1: Summary of Annual Non-Capital Costs ( million).112Table 11.2: Summary of Capital and Present Value Costs ( million) .114Figure 11-1, Total of capital and present value costs .115Table 11.3: South Coast Percent Reduction in Locomotive Emissions from Tier 2 Baselineper Billion Dollars of Total Present Value Cost (No Mode Shift) .116Table 11.4: South Coast Percent Reduction in Locomotive Emissions from Tier 2 Baselineper Billion Dollars of Total Present Value Cost (After Mode Shift) .117Figure 11-2, Percent reduction in South Coast CO2 emissions from Tier 2 baseline per billionin total present value cost with and without mode shift .117Figure 11-3, Percent reduction in South Coast NOx emissions from Tier 2 baseline perbillion in total present value cost with and without mode shift .118Table 11.5: South Coast Percent Reduction in Locomotive Emissions from Tier 4 Baselineper Billion Dollars of Total Present Value Cost (No Mode Shift) .118Table 11.6: South Coast Percent Reduction in Locomotive Emissions from Tier 4 Baselineper Billion Dollars of Total Present Value Cost (After Mode Shift) .119Figure 11-4, Percent reduction in South Coast CO2 emissions from Tier 4 baseline per billionin total present value cost with and without mode shift .119Figure 11-5, Percent reduction in South Coast NOx emissions from Tier 4 baseline perbillion in total present value cost with and without mode shift .120Table 13.1: Annual* South Coast Loco. Emissions (lbs) for N. American Deployment .129Table 13.2: Annual Energy/Fuel Consumption of South Coast Trains for North AmericanDeployment .131Table 13.3: Change in Annual Locomotive Fuel Cost for North American Deployment .132Table 13.4: Annual* Non-Capital Costs ( million) for North American Deployment .134Table 13.5: Summary of Capital and Present Value Costs ( million) for North AmericanDeployment .135Table 13.6: Annual* Loco. Emissions (tons) for N. American Deployment on South CoastTrains.136Table 13.7: Annual* Loco. Emissions (tons) for N. American Deployment on non-SouthCoast Trains .136ixRailTEC
Transitioning to a Zero or Near-Zero Emission Line-Haul Freight Rail System in California: Operational andEconomic ConsiderationsxRailTEC
Transitioning to a Zero or Near-Zero Emission Line-Haul Freight Rail System in California: Operational andEconomic ConsiderationsSummaryThe objective of this research, commissioned by the ARB, is to identify and examine theoperational changes and economic challenges and opportunities associated with a transitionfrom conventional diesel-electric to zero or near-zero emission line-haul freight railoperations in California.To accomplish this objective, the research presented in this report assesses and comparesthe operations and economic impacts of different zero or near-zero emission locomotivetechnology on line-haul mainline freight railroads. For the purposes of this study, mainlineline-haul freight operations are defined as trains operating on Class 1 railroad mainlinesdirectly between origin and destination terminals.There are two different deployment scenarios analyzed in this report: A South Coast Air Basin (SCAB) deployment scenario, with a smaller captive fleet ofadvanced technology freight locomotives.A North American deployment scenario, with a national fleet of advanced technologylocomotives.In the near- to mid-term, the research showed that the North American deployment of Tier 4diesel-electric locomotives with after-treatment and onboard battery storage technologyoffers the best economics of any alternatives studied in this report. While this technology isnot yet commercialized, prototypes of the various systems exist and have beendemonstrated in service.In the longer-term, the Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) gas turbine locomotive with liquefiednatural gas (LNG) fuel appears to offer potential for North American deployment within thelarger locomotive fleet. However, further research is needed to determine if it is feasible toconstruct a 4,400 horsepower freight interstate line haul locomotive powered by SOFC-gasturbine technology.The research also showed that North American deployment of these two locomotivetechnologies offer improved economics relative to operation with exchange points in theSouth Coast Air Basin or the state of California. Although North American deploymentrequires the purchase of more alternative technology locomotives, they realize fuel savingsover longer train runs and are not hindered by the capital cost, train delay, and lost revenueassociated with locomotive exchange points.Locomotive TechnologySCA
6 Locomotive Capital, Energy Supply Infrastructure and Maintenance Costs. 54 6.1 Locomotive . Table 7.2: General Locomotive Exchange Times for Different Distributed Power Configurations . 68 Figure 7-1, Sample time-space diagram of
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