Summary Of Economic Projections - Federal Reserve
For release at 2:00 p.m., EST, December 16, 2020Summary of Economic ProjectionsIn conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting heldon December 15–16, 2020, meeting participants submitted their projections ofthe most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, theunemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2020 to 2023 and over thelonger run. Each participant’s projections were based on information available at thetime of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetarypolicy—including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value—andassumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. The longer-runprojections represent each participant’s assessment of the value to which each variablewould be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy andin the absence of further shocks to the economy. “Appropriate monetary policy” isdefined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to fosteroutcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her individualinterpretation of the statutory mandate to promote maximum employment and pricestability.Beginning with the December 2020 FOMC meeting, all Summary of Economic Projections charts and tables previously released with the minutes of a meeting will bereleased following the conclusion of an FOMC meeting. That is, the release of thedistribution of participants’ projections (Figures 3.A. through 3.E.), participants’assessments of uncertainty and risks associated with the projections (Figures 4.A.though 4.C. and Figure 5), and Table 2 and associated box, which describe projectionerror ranges, have been accelerated by three weeks. Two new exhibits, Figures 4.D.and 4.E., have been added to further enhance the information provided on uncertaintyand risks by showing how FOMC participants’ assessments of uncertainties and riskshave evolved over time.Page 1 of 17
For release at 2:00 p.m., EST, December 16, 2020Table 1. Economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents,under their individual assumptions of projected appropriate monetary policy, December 2020PercentCentral Tendency2Median1Variable20202021 2022 2023 LongerrunChange in real GDPSeptember projection-2.4-3.74.24.03.23.02.42.5Unemployment rateSeptember projection6.77.65.05.54.24.6PCE inflationSeptember projection1.21.21.81.7Core PCE inflation4September run2020202120222023Longerrun1.81.9-2.5– -2.2-4.0– .4–3.01.7–2.01.7–2.0-3.3– �1.4Memo: Projectedappropriate policy pathFederal funds rateSeptember projection2.52.52.3–2.52.3–2.5Note: Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) and projections for both measures of inflation are percent changes from the fourth quarter ofthe previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in, respectively, the price indexfor personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the price index for PCE excluding food and energy. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the averagecivilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Each participant’s projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetarypolicy. Longer-run projections represent each participant’s assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetarypolicy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The projections for the federal funds rate are the value of the midpoint of the projected appropriatetarget range for the federal funds rate or the projected appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longerrun. The September projections were made in conjunction with the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on September 15–16, 2020. One participant didnot submit longer-run projections for the change in real GDP, the unemployment rate, or the federal funds rate in conjunction with the September 15–16, 2020,meeting, and one participant did not submit such projections in conjunction with the December 15–16, 2020, meeting.1. For each period, the median is the middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of projections is even, themedian is the average of the two middle projections.2. The central tendency excludes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year.3. The range for a variable in a given year includes all participants’ projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in that year.4. Longer-run projections for core PCE inflation are not collected.Page 2 of 172.0–3.02.0–3.0
For release at 2:00 p.m., EST, December 16, 2020Figure 1. Medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections, 2020–23 and over the longer runPercentChange in real GDP6543210 1 2 3 4ActualMedian of projectionsCentral tendency of projectionsRange of gerrunPercentUnemployment ngerrunPercentPCE ngerrunPercentCore PCE ngerrunNote: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1. The data for the actual valuesof the variables are annual.Page 3 of 17
For release at 2:00 p.m., EST, December 16, 2020Figure 2. FOMC participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target rangeor target level for the federal funds 2023Longer runNote: Each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest 1/8 percentage point) of an individualparticipant’s judgment of the midpoint of the appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the appropriatetarget level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. One participantdid not submit longer-run projections for the federal funds rate.Page 4 of 17
For release at 2:00 p.m., EST, December 16, 2020Figure 3.A. Distribution of participants’ projections for the change in real GDP, 2020–23 and over the longer runNumber of participants2020 5.8 5.718161412108642December projectionsSeptember projections 5.2 5.1 4.6 4.5 4.0 3.9 3.4 3.3 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.30.2 0.30.8 0.91.4 1.52.0 2.12.6 2.73.2 3.33.8 3.94.4 4.55.0 5.1Percent rangeNumber of participants181614121086422021 5.8 5.7 5.2 5.1 4.6 4.5 4.0 3.9 3.4 3.3 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.30.2 0.30.8 0.91.4 1.52.0 2.12.6 2.73.2 3.33.8 3.94.4 4.55.0 5.1Percent rangeNumber of participants181614121086422022 5.8 5.7 5.2 5.1 4.6 4.5 4.0 3.9 3.4 3.3 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.30.2 0.30.8 0.91.4 1.52.0 2.12.6 2.73.2 3.33.8 3.94.4 4.55.0 5.1Percent rangeNumber of participants181614121086422023 5.8 5.7 5.2 5.1 4.6 4.5 4.0 3.9 3.4 3.3 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.30.2 0.30.8 0.91.4 1.52.0 2.12.6 2.73.2 3.33.8 3.94.4 4.55.0 5.1Percent rangeNumber of participants18161412108642Longer run 5.8 5.7 5.2 5.1 4.6 4.5 4.0 3.9 3.4 3.3 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.30.2 0.3Percent rangeNote: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1.Page 5 of 170.8 0.91.4 1.52.0 2.12.6 2.73.2 3.33.8 3.94.4 4.55.0 5.1
For release at 2:00 p.m., EST, December 16, 2020Figure 3.B. Distribution of participants’ projections for the unemployment rate, 2020–23 and over the longer runNumber of participants20202.8 2.918161412108642December projectionsSeptember projections3.4 3.54.0 4.14.6 4.75.2 5.35.8 5.96.4 6.57.0 7.17.6 7.7Percent rangeNumber of participants1816141210864220212.8 2.93.4 3.54.0 4.14.6 4.75.2 5.35.8 5.96.4 6.57.0 7.17.6 7.7Percent rangeNumber of participants1816141210864220222.8 2.93.4 3.54.0 4.14.6 4.75.2 5.35.8 5.96.4 6.57.0 7.17.6 7.7Percent rangeNumber of participants1816141210864220232.8 2.93.4 3.54.0 4.14.6 4.75.2 5.35.8 5.96.4 6.57.0 7.17.6 7.7Percent rangeNumber of participants18161412108642Longer run2.8 2.93.4 3.54.0 4.14.6 4.75.2 5.3Percent rangeNote: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1.Page 6 of 175.8 5.96.4 6.57.0 7.17.6 7.7
For release at 2:00 p.m., EST, December 16, 2020Figure 3.C. Distribution of participants’ projections for PCE inflation, 2020–23 and over the longer runNumber of participants2020December projectionsSeptember projections0.7 0.80.9 1.01.1 1.21.3 1.41.5 1.61.7 1.81.9 2.02.1 2.2181614121086422.3 2.4Percent rangeNumber of participants2021181614121086420.7 0.80.9 1.01.1 1.21.3 1.41.5 1.61.7 1.81.9 2.02.1 2.22.3 2.4Percent rangeNumber of participants2022181614121086420.7 0.80.9 1.01.1 1.21.3 1.41.5 1.61.7 1.81.9 2.02.1 2.22.3 2.4Percent rangeNumber of participants2023181614121086420.7 0.80.9 1.01.1 1.21.3 1.41.5 1.61.7 1.81.9 2.02.1 2.22.3 2.4Percent rangeNumber of participantsLonger run181614121086420.7 0.80.9 1.01.1 1.21.3 1.41.5 1.61.7 1.81.9 2.0Percent rangeNote: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1.Page 7 of 172.1 2.22.3 2.4
For release at 2:00 p.m., EST, December 16, 2020Figure 3.D. Distribution of participants’ projections for core PCE inflation, 2020–23Number of participants2020December projectionsSeptember projections0.9 1.01.1 1.21.3 1.41.5 1.61.7 1.81.9 2.02.1 2.2181614121086422.3 2.4Percent rangeNumber of participants2021181614121086420.9 1.01.1 1.21.3 1.41.5 1.61.7 1.81.9 2.02.1 2.22.3 2.4Percent rangeNumber of participants2022181614121086420.9 1.01.1 1.21.3 1.41.5 1.61.7 1.81.9 2.02.1 2.22.3 2.4Percent rangeNumber of participants2023181614121086420.9 1.01.1 1.21.3 1.41.5 1.61.7 1.81.9 2.0Percent rangeNote: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1.Page 8 of 172.1 2.22.3 2.4
For release at 2:00 p.m., EST, December 16, 2020Figure 3.E. Distribution of participants’ judgments of the midpoint of the appropriate target range for thefederal funds rate or the appropriate target level for the federal funds rate, 2020–23 and over the longer runNumber of participants20200.13 0.37December projectionsSeptember projections0.38 0.620.63 0.870.88 1.121.13 1.371.38 1.621.63 1.871.88 2.122.13 2.372.38 2.622.63 2.87181614121086422.88 3.12Percent rangeNumber of participants2021181614121086420.13 0.370.38 0.620.63 0.870.88 1.121.13 1.371.38 1.621.63 1.871.88 2.122.13 2.372.38 2.622.63 2.872.88 3.12Percent rangeNumber of participants2022181614121086420.13 0.370.38 0.620.63 0.870.88 1.121.13 1.371.38 1.621.63 1.871.88 2.122.13 2.372.38 2.622.63 2.872.88 3.12Percent rangeNumber of participants2023181614121086420.13 0.370.38 0.620.63 0.870.88 1.121.13 1.371.38 1.621.63 1.871.88 2.122.13 2.372.38 2.622.63 2.872.88 3.12Percent rangeNumber of participantsLonger run181614121086420.13 0.370.38 0.620.63 0.870.88 1.121.13 1.371.38 1.621.63 1.871.88 2.122.13 2.37Percent rangeNote: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1.Page 9 of 172.38 2.622.63 2.872.88 3.12
For release at 2:00 p.m., EST, December 16, 2020Figure 4.A. Uncertainty and risks in projections of GDP growthMedian projection and confidence interval based on historical forecast errorsPercentChange in real GDPMedian of projections70% confidence interval65432Actual10 1 2 3 4201520162017201820192020202120222023FOMC participants’ assessments of uncertainty and risks around their economic projectionsNumber of participantsUncertainty about GDP growthDecember projectionsSeptember projectionsLowerBroadlysimilarNumber of participantsRisks to GDP growth18161412108642HigherDecember projectionsSeptember projectionsWeighted todownsideBroadlybalanced18161412108642Weighted toupsideNote: The blue and red lines in the top panel show actual values and median projected values, respectively, ofthe percent change in real gross domestic product (GDP) from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourthquarter of the year indicated. The confidence interval around the median projected values is assumed to be symmetricand is based on root mean squared errors of various private and government forecasts made over the previous 20years; more information about these data is available in table 2. Because current conditions may differ from thosethat prevailed, on average, over the previous 20 years, the width and shape of the confidence interval estimated onthe basis of the historical forecast errors may not reflect FOMC participants’ current assessments of the uncertaintyand risks around their projections; these current assessments are summarized in the lower panels. Generally speaking,participants who judge the uncertainty about their projections as “broadly similar” to the average levels of the past20 years would view the width of the confidence interval shown in the historical fan chart as largely consistent withtheir assessments of the uncertainty about their projections. Likewise, participants who judge the risks to theirprojections as “broadly balanced” would view the confidence interval around their projections as approximatelysymmetric. For definitions of uncertainty and risks in economic projections, see the box “Forecast Uncertainty.”Page 10 of 17
For release at 2:00 p.m., EST, December 16, 2020Figure 4.B. Uncertainty and risks in projections of the unemployment rateMedian projection and confidence interval based on historical forecast errorsPercentUnemployment rateMedian of projections70% confidence 20222023FOMC participants’ assessments of uncertainty and risks around their economic projectionsNumber of participantsUncertainty about the unemployment rateDecember projectionsSeptember projectionsLowerBroadlysimilarNumber of participantsRisks to the unemployment rate18161412108642HigherDecember projectionsSeptember projectionsWeighted todownsideBroadlybalanced18161412108642Weighted toupsideNote: The blue and red lines in the top panel show actual values and median projected values, respectively, ofthe average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. The confidence interval aroundthe median projected values is assumed to be symmetric and is based on root mean squared errors of various privateand government forecasts made over the previous 20 years; more information about these data is available in table 2.Because current conditions may differ from those that prevailed, on average, over the previous 20 years, the widthand shape of the confidence interval estimated on the basis of the historical forecast errors may not reflect FOMCparticipants’ current assessments of the uncertainty and risks around their projections; these current assessments aresummarized in the lower panels. Generally speaking, participants who judge the uncertainty about their projectionsas “broadly similar” to the average levels of the past 20 years would view the width of the confidence interval shownin the historical fan chart as largely consistent with their assessments of the uncertainty about their projections.Likewise, participants who judge the risks to their projections as “broadly balanced” would view the confidenceinterval around their projections as approximately symmetric. For definitions of uncertainty and risks in economicprojections, see the box “Forecast Uncertainty.”Page 11 of 17
For release at 2:00 p.m., EST, December 16, 2020Figure 4.C. Uncertainty and risks in projections of PCE inflationMedian projection and confidence interval based on historical forecast errorsPercentPCE inflationMedian of projections70% confidence 023FOMC participants’ assessments of uncertainty and risks around their economic projectionsNumber of participantsUncertainty about PCE inflationRisks to PCE inflationDecember projectionsSeptember projectionsLowerBroadlysimilarNumber of participantsDecember projectionsSeptember projections18161412108642HigherWeighted todownsideBroadlybalancedNumber of participantsUncertainty about core PCE inflationBroadlysimilarWeighted toupsideNumber of participantsRisks to core PCE inflationDecember projectionsSeptember December projectionsSeptember projectionsWeighted todownsideBroadlybalanced18161412108642Weighted toupsideNote: The blue and red lines in the top panel show actual values and median projected values, respectively,of the percent change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) from the fourth quarter ofthe previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. The confidence interval around the median projectedvalues is assumed to be symmetric and is based on root mean squared errors of various private and governmentforecasts made over the previous 20 years; more information about these data is available in table 2. Because currentconditions may differ from those that prevailed, on average, over the previous 20 years, the width and shape of theconfidence interval estimated on the basis of the historical forecast errors may not reflect FOMC participants’ currentassessments of the uncertainty and risks around their projections; these current assessments are summarized in thelower panels. Generally speaking, participants who judge the uncertainty about their projections as “broadly similar”to the average levels of the past 20 years would view the width of the confidence interval shown in the historical fanchart as largely consistent with their assessments of the uncertainty about their projections. Likewise, participantswho judge the risks to their projections as “broadly balanced” would view the confidence interval around theirprojections as approximately symmetric. For definitions of uncertainty and risks in economic projections, see the box“Forecast Uncertainty.”Page 12 of 17
For release at 2:00 p.m., EST, December 16, 2020Figure 4.D. Diffusion indexes of participants’ uncertainty assessmentsDiffusion indexChange in real GDP1.000.750.500.250.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1820192020Diffusion indexUnemployment rate1.000.750.500.250.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1820192020Diffusion indexPCE inflation1.000.750.500.250.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1820192020Diffusion indexCore PCE inflation1.000.750.500.250.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1820192020Note: For each SEP, participants provided responses to the question “Please indicate your judgment of theuncertainty attached to your projections relative to the levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years.” Each pointin the diffusion indexes represents the number of participants who responded “Higher” minus the number whoresponded “Lower,” divided by the total number of participants. Figure excludes March 2020 when no projectionswere submitted.Page 13 of 17
For release at 2:00 p.m., EST, December 16, 2020Figure 4.E. Diffusion indexes of participants’ risk weightingsDiffusion indexChange in real GDP1.000.750.500.250.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1820192020Diffusion
Summary of Economic Projections In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on December 15–16, 2020, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2020 to 2023 and over the longerrun.
Table 34: Projections of the total population, 2012-2032 according to the high projections scenario . 100 Table 35: Projections of the total population, 2012-2032 according to the medium projections scenario . 101 Table 36: Projections of the total population, 2012-2032 according to the low projections scenario 103
Projections of Education Statistics to 2022 . is the 41st report . in a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and postsecondary degree-granting . institutions. This report provides revisions of projections shown in . Projections of Education Statistics to 2021. and . projections of enrollment .File Size: 2MBPage Count: 194Explore furtherYouTubewww.youtube.comNewsmax – Breaking News News Videos Politics, Health .www.newsmax.comFox News - Breaking News Updates Latest News Headlines .www.foxnews.comSingle sign-on for education Cleverclever.comWelcome to Costco Wholesalewww.costco.comRecommended to you based on what's popular Feedback
Projections of Education Statistics to 2026 . is the 45th report . in a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting postsecondary institutions. This report provides revisions of projections shown in . Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 and projections of enrollment, graduates .File Size: 1MBPage Count: 177
La première partie du cours est une introduction aux projections de population. Voici les objectifs de la première partie : Présenter les concepts fondamentaux liés aux projections de population dont la fécondité, la mortalité et la migration. Expliquer l’utilité des projections de population dans le processus décisionnel.
Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 . is the 44th report . in a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting postsecondary institutions. This report provides revisions of projections shown in . Projections of Education Statistics
jurisdictions (23counties and Baltimore City). Statistics on actual total and public -school enrollment for 2007-2017 are also included. The public-school enrollment projections utilize the Maryland Department of Planning’s population projections by age and sex for each jurisdiction. The popu lation projections are used to derive school -age
jurisdictions (23 counties and Baltimore City). Statistics on actual total and public -school enrollment for 2008-2018 are also included. The public-school enrollment projections utilize the Maryland Department of Planning’s population projections by age and sex for each jurisdiction. The pop ulation projections are used to derive school -age
The AAT Advanced Diploma in Accounting is a potential stepping stone for students to take into employment, further education or training. It may be suited to students studying part time alongside employment or to those already working in finance. This qualification will also suit those looking to gain the skills required to move into a career in finance as it provides a clear pathway towards a .
