Industry Agenda Mining & Metals In A Sustainable World 2050

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Industry AgendaMining & Metals in aSustainable World 2050Prepared in collaboration with The Boston Consulting GroupSeptember 2015

WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM, 2015 – All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced ortransmitted in any form or by any means, includingphotocopying and recording, or by any informationstorage and retrieval system.REF 250815

ContentsForeword3Foreword5Executive Summary6Mining & Metals in a SustainableWorld 2050 – A Case for ActionGillian DavidsonHead of Miningand MetalsIndustries10 A Framework for Mining &Metals in a Sustainable World205010 Drivers of Change10 Areas of Transition16 Scenarios on the Future ofResources17 Roadmaps and Actions18 Applying the Framework –Circular Use of Commoditiesand Metals19 Scope and Focus: FiveAspects of the Circular Use ofCommodities and Metals21 A Desired End State for 205025 Idenfitying Gaps32 Potential Disruptions33 Scenarios and RoadmapBuilding37 Next Steps38 Acknowledgments40 EndnotesThe mining and metals industry is an integral part ofany foreseeable economy and society. As a provider ofemployment and essential materials, it is connected toalmost all industry value chains. Yet, the industry faces majorchallenges and uncertainties.The weakness in global markets following the financial crisishas been compounded by falling commodity prices and theshort-termism of many shareholders. The industry is alsounder pressure from stakeholders, ranging from changingconsumer demands to the promotion of sustainableresource use by regulatory bodies. Companies areincreasingly expected to operate more sustainably and todefine and implement action reflecting this priority.This report comes as the post-2015 development agendakicked off with the Finance for Development Summit inJuly and as the world prepares for the UN Summit on theSustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Septemberin New York and the UN climate change conferencein December in Paris. The mining and metals sector isessential to the achievement of this agenda through itsactivities and products and will launch a joint mapping of thesector and SDGs later in 2015.Although many stakeholders have set objectives for moresustainable and responsible mineral development, the pathtowards a more sustainable world is full of uncertainties.There is an opportunity for different actors in the sectorto develop solutions to these shifts and move beyond apassive acceptance of their consequences to pro-activeaction and innovation. A clear understanding of the potentialchallenges and opportunities is now key to prospering ina changing environment and finding new opportunities forgrowth.The Mining & Metals in a Sustainable World 2050 projectwas launched against this backdrop and with the supportof the Boston Consulting Group as project advisor. Thereport focuses on strategies and actions for companies,and aims to enable and contribute to a discussion about thesustainable future of the planet. The goal is for companiesto not only think about these issues, but also to act uponthem. It also highlights the major transitions that will shapethe mining and metals value chain in this new sustainableworld, and to provide a framework to support the actionsrequired.The report is the direct result of a cooperative process withmembers of the private sector, governments, the academiccommunity, civil society and multilateral organizations fromaround the world. The World Economic Forum is extremelygrateful to many stakeholders for their input and support,and looks forward to pursuing dialogue as this workcontinues.Mining & Metals in a Sustainable World 20503

4Mining & Metals in a Sustainable World 2050

Executive SummaryThe world is transforming – mining and metals canshape its own agendaMining and metals are essential to global economic andsocial development and are connected to almost all industryvalue chains. As an inherently long-term investment, a longterm perspective is crucial.By 2050, the world will be different, as will the way resources will be used. Rules are changing, social pressure to actmore sustainably is growing, and technological advancesare disrupting all sectors. While the direction towards amore sustainable world is clear, the path is not. This is anopportunity for the mining and metals community to definethe role it can play to shape the agenda and to embrace thechanges to come.–– How can the sector embrace these transformations?–– What business models and strategic priorities will enablesuccess?–– What actions do companies need to take now to betterprepare themselves to be industry leaders in 30 years’time?Building a framework for mining and metalsUnder the mandate of the World Economic Forum’s Mining & Metals Industry Governors Community, a frameworkto guide the sector in this transition to a more sustainableworld has been developed. The framework aims to helpnavigate and shape the agenda of tomorrow, having identified a number of critical questions:–– What will the balance between primary and secondarycommodity supplies look like in the future?–– Which supporting resources (such as water and energy)face the largest risks of scarcity and cost increase?–– What are the long-term downstream/end-use trends thatcould impact the sector most?–– Which technological developments will impact miningand metals?–– What needs to be done to ensure the industry canattract the right skills in the future?–– How is regulation being shaped and how are the differentregulatory speeds being addressed?–– Which parts of the business model and overall strategyneed to be adjusted in a more sustainable world?The Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Responsible MineralResource Management identified key drivers of change,outlining the transformations in process and to come.Looking forward to 2050, four fundamental principles ofsustainability were asserted, framing the desired end stateand the way the industry should operate in a sustainableworld. The four principles are grouped under: environmentand climate conservation, fair value and development(responsible mineral development), transparency and humanrights, health and well-being.Looking at the mining life cycle and value chain, criticalareas of transition were also identified along which changeis necessary and achievable (the resource base, strategyand the operating model, technology and innovation, peopleand workforce, external relationships, demand – valuechains). Three scenarios, each outlining a different roadtowards 2050, were applied to identify different potentialactions and to start building a roadmap. The scenarios weredeveloped on the basis of the report “The Future Availabilityof Natural Resources: A New Paradigm for Global ResourceAvailability”, published by the World Economic Forum in2014.Pilot case study: Circular use of commodities andmetalsThe framework was tested with a pilot case study on thecircular use of commodities and metals, focusing on thebalance between primary and secondary resources anda potential transition towards circularity. Across differentscenarios key findings of the pilot included:–– A strong move towards recycling and circularity is likely,but fundamental changes are required to support thistransition, including appropriate infrastructure, regulationand legislation, and competitive cost economics.–– Mining will not disappear. Primary extraction will continuebut volumes are unlikely to grow in line with GDP growth.This means that pressure to realize scale effects and costefficiency will remain in the foreseeable future. Demandsfor cost effectiveness will exist in parallel with demand forenvironmentally and socially responsible actions, leadingto new partnership and operating models.–– Metals will not disappear. Metals companies will actas a liaison between commodity producers and endindustries. Opportunities will exist to adapt businessmodel transformations and reposition as materialsproviders.–– Technology will be key. Mining companies have anopportunity to focus on waste treatment optimizationand metal companies on the improvement of low-gradeprocessing capabilities.–– It will become increasingly important to betterunderstand supply chains and consumer preferences.Next stepsThis report serves as a foundation for further explorationsof the challenges and opportunities for the mining andmetals agenda in 2050. In a first step, companies and otherstakeholders can apply the framework as a tool to analyseexisting strategies and actions across the areas for transitionand identify missing elements and key opportunities criticalfor the journey towards a sustainable world. We hope thiswill help to trigger new ideas, actions and partnershipsthat will be required for collaborative action by variousstakeholders. Continuing our efforts to help create industryspecific insights through focussed research work, the nextarea the World Economic Forum will explore in more depthwith be the role of technology, and especially the digitaltransformation of the industry.Mining & Metals in a Sustainable World 20505

Mining & Metals in aSustainable World 2050 –A Case for ActionMining and metals are essential to the global economy andsocietal development. Standing at the beginning of mostvalue chains, the sector is a critical supplier of essentialmaterials and products and a global generator of trade,employment and economic development.To be essential is not, however, to be immune from pressureor criticism. The mining and metals sector faces significantdemands and expectations from across the value chain andstakeholder groups – from shareholders and customers, togovernments, communities and consumers. In a constantlychanging world, global disruptions and transformationstowards a more sustainable and equitable future arechallenging the traditional way of doing business.Sustainable development is a well-documented challengefor the planet in the years leading up to 2050, and beyond.More recently, 2015 has been a critical year as the worldconvenes to collectively agree on pathways forwardon goals for sustainable development (UN Summit onSustainable Development Goals), financing of development(International Conference on Financing for Development)and on climate change (UN climate change conference).1It is estimated that between now and 2050 the world’spopulation will grow from just over 7 billion to 9.6 billion,2along with further growth in consumption per capita. Thebulk of that growth will take place in Africa and Asia, wherethe demand for an improved quality of life will drive the needto access goods and services. Africa, for example, now hasthe fastest-growing middle class in the world. Some 313million people, 34% of Africa’s population, spend 2-20 aday, a 100% rise in less than 20 years, according to theAfrican Development Bank. How to accommodate thosedemands and needs within planetary boundaries is one ofthe great challenges facing decision-makers in all regionsand industrial sectors.The World Economic Forum’s recent report, The FutureAvailability of Natural Resources, shows that opinions varyon the speed with which natural resources are depleting.3Irrespective of the speed of use or depletion, it has becomecritical to use the planet’s resources more sustainably.6Mining & Metals in a Sustainable World 2050The mining and metals sector is central to the success ofmeeting the demand of global growth in a more sustainableworld. The industry has responded, shifting its mindset,strategies and activities; 80% of senior executives believethat sustainability-oriented strategies are essential forcurrent and future competitive advantage4 while 63% of chiefexecutives expect sustainability to transform their industrywithin five years.5 Between 2011 and 2013, the number ofcommodity companies reporting proactively on sustainabilitystrategy and criteria has increased by almost 58%.6At the same time, governments are introducing andimproving regulation and legislation on relevant areas suchas water, social benefits and biodiversity; climate changealone has more than 300 legislative measures worldwidealready.7 However, the level at which such regulations havebeen conceived and administered varies widely in differentcountries. This presents a need to harmonize regulatoryframeworks globally to avoid possible clash of interests.This is increasingly being witnessed in countries which havejoined free trade agreements, and, contractually, are nolonger able to ban the importation of mineral commoditiesproduced under less stringent environmental regulation thantheir own national laws mandate. Domestic firms that incurcosts by complying with regulations and by producing in anenvironmentally sound manner could be put at a competitivedisadvantage.Organizations such as the World Business Council onSustainable Development (WBSCD) and the InternationalCouncil on Mining and Metals (ICMM) have helped shapethe industry agenda by ensuring that the mining, mineralsand metals industry is responsive to global needs andchallenges. Although not primarily focused on mining,WBCSD has been promoting more systematic andintegrated environmental management by companies. ItsVision 2050 outlines a new agenda to achieve a sustainablefuture with an action plan for 2020 identifying how businesscan positively influence environmental and social trendswhile strengthening their own resilience to issues like climatechange, demographic dynamics and skills shortages.Towards the same end, ICMM is working with leadingmining and metals companies and others to strengthenthe sector’s contribution to sustainable development byimproving environmental and social performance.

The will to contribute is clear. The question of how remainsa significant challenge for the sector and will require thealignment of the operations of a large and complex industryin a sustainable direction for the long term while maximizingthe short and medium-term benefits, in terms of bothproducts and employment, which it brings to its manystakeholders.This study by the World Economic Forum, in partnershipwith The Boston Consulting Group, takes those discussionsfurther. Building on the knowledge from within and beyondthe sector, an industry framework was developed to guideand support a company and the sector in a successfultransition towards a more sustainable world by 2050.Identifying the critical drivers of change in a changing worldand areas where transition is required, the framework helpsexplore how mining and metals value chains could beimpacted and what roadmap of actions will be necessary forsuccess.This report is presented in two sections: first, the frameworkto guide actions for the mining and metals sector in asustainable world 2050 is presented, and second, an indepth case study applies the framework to the circular useof metals. Forward thinking is key to industry leadershipand success. The more sustainable world examined in thisreport could have profound long-term implications for howthis industry performs; today’s preparation will determinetomorrow’s achievements.Mining & Metals in a Sustainable World 20507

A Framework for Mining& Metals in a SustainableWorld 2050In 2013, the World Economic Forum and its Global AgendaCouncil on Responsible Mineral Resource Management8published a scoping paper9 examining the potentialimplications of a sustainable world for the mining and metalscommunity. The paper, outlining the drivers of fundamentalchange facing the world and their possible impact on theindustry, was presented at the World Economic ForumAnnual Meeting 2014 in Davos, Switzerland, and identifiedas a priority topic for the industry and to which the Forumcould add value.A launch workshop, in June 2014, brought together 35multistakeholder leaders from across regions, and whoidentified the need for an overarching framework specific tothe mining and metals sector. An advisory group of globalexperts representing different stakeholder groups supportedthe development of this framework and its application to thecase study on the circular use of metals.The goal in developing a framework is to facilitate a longterm view of the business landscape and evaluate the rolemining and metals companies could play in ensuring thatresources are leveraged efficiently and responsibly. It offersa strategic foresight into the transformations which are likelyto define the industry’s journey towards a sustainable world.Mining and metals companies can apply the frameworkto conduct “pulse checks” to evaluate if their existingstrategy is well-positioned to maximize sustainable valuecreation as the world transitions. By identifying missing orunderdeveloped elements that are critical for the journeytowards a sustainable world, organizations can evaluate andadjust their existing approach or trigger new action plans.Principles of a sustainable world in 2050Principles of sustainability developed by organizationssuch as the WBCSD,10 the Natural Step,11 the ICMM12 andothers13 provide important thought leadership and guidancefor businesses and government. Since the world, and anydesired state, in 2050 will vary for different stakeholders andthrough time as we advance towards the second half of thiscentury, a specific end goal is difficult to define. Instead, aset of overarching principles have been identified to set thedirection of the sector to a more sustainable world and allow8Mining & Metals in a Sustainable World 2050for goals and actions to be adapted as contexts change. Itis from this desired end state that it is possible to backcastto today’s context and begin to assess what is required forthat journey to be successful.Environment and climate conservationConserving the environment and climate means that themining and metals sector operates within the physicaland environmental boundaries of the planet. Thesystematic extraction of concentrated substances fromthe earth’s crust cannot be sustained indefinitely on afinite planet.14 Developing processes and technologies,which enable a lower carbon footprint along the valuechain and which facilitate a more circular economy, arecore business.15Fair value and developmentThe value created by mining and metals is done sofairly, enabling sustainable development and improvedlivelihoods.16 Value is shared between differentstakeholders – communities, shareholders, investors,national and local government – and between differentcountries.17Transparency and human rightsGovernments and businesses operating with respect forhuman rights and equality, committed to anti-corruptionand being transparent with payments and information.Trust, dialogue and partnerships are key to businesssuccess.Health and well-beingEnsuring the health, well-being and safety of workers,their families and surrounding communities remains afoundational value.The framework for Mining & Metals in a Sustainable World2050 consists of the following four components (Figure 1):1.2.3.4.Drivers of changeAreas of transitionScenarios on the future of resourcesRoadmap/actions

Mining & Metals in a Sustainable World 20509SocietalHigher fairnessDemocratizationGenerat. changeConcern for ASM PotentialresourcenationalizationGeopolitical Increased rate oftechnolog. changeTechnological Mining in more remoteregions / new frontiers Declining gradesGeographies Growing concern Climate changeEnvironmentalDrivers of changeFigure 3Resource baseStrategy & operating modelTechnology & innovationPeople & workforceExternal relationshipsDemand (Value chains)Demand in a Sustainable World 205023456Health &wellbeing1Supply & Operating ModelEnvironment/ Fair value & Transparency &climatedevelopment human rightsPrinciples framing the end-stateThemes of transitionFigure 1: The Mining & Metals in a Sustainable World 2050 frameworkScenarios on thefuture of sInvestorsCivil SocietyCivil rnmentCommunitiesInvestorsCivil SocietyMiningRoadmap/actions

Drivers of ChangeAreas of TransitionSignificant changes are expected during this journey toa sustainable world. In 2013, the Global Agenda Councilon Responsible Mineral Resource Management identifiedcritical global drivers of change impacting and influencingthe sector now and driving transformations of the future.The drivers of these changes are clustered under five pillars,representing the key dimensions of the mining and metalsindustry ecosystem: environmental, technological, societal,geopolitical and geographies (Figure 2).The drivers of change help us understand the surroundingand influencing context, and the principles of a sustainableworld frame our ambition. How do we ensure a successfultransition between this context and the desired state?For any mining and metals company, understandingthe drivers of change in their context today (geography,commodity, partnership model, etc.) and tracking of relatedtrends is important to allow them to proactively prepare andadapt to a transforming business environment.This step in the framework proposes a set of critical areasalong which transitions much take place if the sector is tomove towards a more sustainable world. The transitionsconsider the full mining and metals value chain18 andcapture the potential circular opportunities (Figure3). Thecomplexity of sustainable development and the interlinkagesacross the sector value chain call for consideration across alltransition areas.While each of these transitions can be distinct, none iswholly independent of the others. There are a multitudeof linkages, some leading to complexity and conflict.For example, technological changes and higher levels ofautomation are likely to create demand for a more highlyskilled, but smaller workforce. This may conflict with the goalof creating employment and development opportunities.Figure 2: Key drivers of change for the mining and metals sectorFigure 1Drivers of changeEnvironmental Growing concern for the environment Climate changeTechnological Intensified rate of technological changeSocietal Higher demand for fairness Increased "democratization" Abrupt generational change Rising concerns about artisanal miningGeopolitical Potential resource nationalizationGeographical Mining in remote, undeveloped regions Declining grades10Mining & Metals in a Sustainable World 2050What does it mean? Sustainable management ofwater, biodiversity and climate Global warming impacts policymaking and business operations Accelerated transformation ofprocesses and operations Equitable distribution of benefits,costs and risks Decision-making and access toinformation more representative New ideas and values shapeleadership profiles Social and environmentalchallenges become priority States take on sole ownership ofminerals to be extracted Depleting sources driveexploration of new frontiers Declining quality of ores renderexisting sites less economical

Figure 3: Mining and metals value chain and transition to a sustainable worldFigure 4Mining & Metals value chainSupportingresourcesInvestors /fundingWasteEnvironment& climatePartnershipsWasteASSETLogistics &infrastructureResources(Virgin and recycled)Access tolandEquipment,operations &processesWorkforceeCommunityValue &entDemand for commodities/metalsGovernmentCivil societydevelopmLogistics & infrastructureHealth & wellbeingrencyaTransphtsan Rig& HumINTERLINKAGES1THEMESS2Resource baseR3Strategy &operating model4Technology& innovationPrinciples of sustainability support the themes:Access to resources stands at the beginning of the valuechain. Primary resources (material being mined) andsupporting resources (such as water and power) areessential to mining and metals value creation. The miningand metals activities – extracting ore and rock, processingand refining material, and creating metal products – thenenable commodity production to meet end-industry anduser demand.19 Individual companies’ operating modelsdrive these processes in partnership with others. Theseelements of the value chain are presented here as the areasalong which transition is required and where opportunity foraction can be defined.Taking into account the findings of the World EconomicForum’s report, The Future Availability of Natural Resources,the areas of transition also reflect an integrated view20of resource availability. This means looking beyond theperspectives of material exhaustion, rising costs or socialinjustice. The integrated view also pays special attentionto the role that strategy, technology, policies, preferencesand various stakeholders will play in the future availability ofprimary and secondary resources.The transition areas are:Resource base–– Virgin resources and new frontiersMining companies will face the challenge of maintainingresource security well into the future. Companiesalready face diminishing reserves and grade declinein established locations, while virgin explorations65People Fair value &developmentDemand(Value chains)Transparency &human rightsHealth &wellbeingcome with increasing costs and concerns overenvironmental impact.21 In the transition to 2050, it willbe increasingly important to understand where andhow new frontiers will be accessed and what resourceswill be economically available. Technology will be avital determinant for this theme, from exploration toextraction, from seabed to asteroids.22–– Reuse and recycle commodities and metalsResources are lasting longer, and recycling is creatingnew resources from old. Understanding and leveragingthis shift – and how the supply chains of commoditiesand metals will change – into business models iskey.23 For example, will it become more profitable andsustainable to reposition a business as “providersof metals” or “providers of materials” derived fromrecycling or reuse rather than as a pure mining or metalscompany.–– Enabling resources – Access and efficiency (e.g. water,power, land)Using less water, power and land will help companiesreduce costs, improve their sustainability footprintand maintain support to operate.24 Innovation in useand reuse of supporting resources will be significantdrivers of success. In some regions, power and watershortages can be crippling constraints to investmentand operations while land availability and use can requirepolitical leverage, sensitivity and good relationships.Mining & Metals in a Sustainable World 205011

Case study 1: Adapting the business model (Teck Resources)E-Waste, a global challengeFrom tubeTVs tostudyflat screens,Case1 paperbacks to Kindles, Betamax to Blu-Ray players, the pace of technological change isaccelerating. With it comes an increasing amount of electronic waste, also known as e-waste. According to the UnitedNations Environment Programme, global e-waste production is estimated at around 40 million tonnes per year.Tons of e-waste 120122013X AxisEmbrace recyclingThe mining company Teck operates its own smelter and refinery in Trail, Canada. It developed an e-waste recycling processwhich maximizes metal recovery. Metals are recovered from cathode ray tube (CRT) glass, computer parts and circuitboards through separation, segregation and smelting. Teck became the first metal supplier in Olympic history to includemetals recovered from e-waste in the Olympic medals. Over 77,000 tonnes have been processed since 2006.Securing metal supply while pursuing sustainabilityE-waste constitutes a reliable and rapidly increasing source of metals ensuring the long-term sustainability of Teck’soperations. Moreover, the use of e-waste as a source of scrap enables the saving of energy that would have otherwisebeen used to generate mined resources.12Mining & Metals in a Sustainable World 2050

Strategy and operating models–– Strategy, leadership and embedding changeEmbedding sustainability in a company culture, so thatit is automatically considered alongside financial andoperational imperatives, requires strong leadershipand long-term vision within companies. At the sametime, sustainability implies open and multistakeholderdiscussion, and mining and metals companies have theopportunity to be leaders in the wider societal debateon sustainability. Thinking about how and to what extentsustainability should shape corporate cultures andstrategies, and what role can be taken in the broaderdebate, will be an important task for mining and metalscompanies.–– Partnership models as part of business modelWorking with partners such as service providers isalready embedded in business models. What is changingis the role that sustainability will play in the choice andtype of partners and partnership models, and the valueof collaboration across the value chain.–– Investment modelsIn investment, long-term thinking and a broadconception of value will be needed. For example, thetransition to a more circular economy requires upfrontinvestment before serious returns are generated.Sustainability will also continue to grow in importance ininvestment decisions, and potentially challenge investorsto react to changing definitions of value.Case study 2: Increase in sustainable investments (PFZW)Case study 2Global increase in sustainable investmentsWorldwide sustainable investments have increased significantly and sustainability is becoming an essential investmentcriterion. These types of investments accounted for 3.74 trillion in total assets under management at the end of 2011. Thisrepresents a 22% increase compared to 2009.US billionsGrowth of Sustainable and ResponsibleInvestment 05200720102012PFZW exampleMany market players have started using sustainable, responsible and impact-based strategies for investing in assets.PFZW, the Dutch giant healthcare pension fund, has announced that it intends to quadruple its sustainable investments toa value of 16 billion before 2020. The pension fund will also aim

Nov 25, 2014 · 6 Mining & Metals in a Sustainable World 2050 Mining & Metals in a Sustainable World 2050 – A Case for Action Mining and metals are essential to the global economy and societal development. Standing at the beginning of most value chains, the sector is a critical supplier of essentia

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